IMF and the Economy January 2022 World Economic Report: Inflation, Supply Chains and Debt

Inflation impacts energy and fuel.
That is when you need a sail boat versus motor boat.

The January 2022 World Economic Report by the IMF was released recently. The World Economic Report provides an overview of the world economy and understanding the current global market conditions. The IMF includes 190 participating countries and launched after WWII to help improve global economic cooperation. It general, the IMF sets some basic policies as they pertain to global finance and trade that impacts perhaps billions of people. They provide useful reports and recommendations to nations and their leaders on setting their own monetary policies. 

 

One of the reasons why you may want to read these reports is because they offer key insights into things that are happing now and things that may happen in the near term. As you browse some of the highlights below you will also notice discussions on leading issues of the day and a few projections that business executives, leaders, and investors might want to explore. I read them to not only understand the world markets but also the larger system. (and of course myself...and I'm not very rich. I was working a long time on a different sort of thing so I'm kind of new to the game here. If you scratch beyond the surface of our assumptions there are whole worlds of different things to explore. Not specifically related but our brains are programed through culture to see only certain things and thus we miss out on lots of different perspectives outside our perceptional understanding. There is data we take from our senses and there is the understanding of that information based on cultural programming. Different cultures and peoples will see different things in the same phenomenon.)

In addition, to relevant policy setting discussions, the IMF also publishes root information based on seminal types of economic research. This means that other people read this and publish their own news articles and opinion pieces. The core information is in the data and within the narrative of the report. Sometimes you can look at the data and see a few things that they may not have mentioned or may have even missed (It should be stated that in science there are a few decision makers and lots of indoctrination on what types of problems to look at the the methods used to decode and organize data. To know that for sure someone would need to look at the backgrounds of key leaders, higher education institutions, professors and the major economic philosophies at the time of their attendance as obtained through syllabus, academic departments, etc.... Creative mindsets free flow connections beyond economic formulas and statistics. Some of this limiting scope is from the exact nature of economic calculations seeking to imperfectly explain the neuroeconomic choices of human behavior; even harder if we don't have strong virtual economic models in a world where increasingly more choices are made online without the same physical constraints.  This means that the highest positions in government decision making are regularly awarded to people who attended the best schools and in turn their indoctrination limits their ability to see "out of the box" phenomenon and/or solutions. Learning organizations should think about the different types of people, various backgrounds, that can see things in new ways but have enough industry knowledge to make recommendations useful. What I'm saying isn't specific to the IMF but to all agencies in the sense of key leadership teams and their educational backgrounds.. Diversity of thought is beneficial for strategic planning. Science Starts with Question)

A few key points from the report........

1. Supply disruptions, higher energy costs, and reduction of fiscal policy (we should expect this) have reduced downward the U.S. GDP 1.2 percentage-points.
2. Global Economy moves from 5.9 in 2021 to 4.4 percent in 2022 (Remember its a market projection)
3. Global growth is expected to be around 3.8 percent in 2023 (Remember its a market projection)

4.Inflation will decline when supply chains return back to normal (We adapt. If the U.S. starts drawing back investment, manufacturing and supply chains it can reduce long term inflation threats like this. Reduce but not eliminate is the key term. In the Digital Era we have better metrics and can see emerging economic threats happen.. We are also more connected to global economies but also have better tools and ability to navigate economic storms. For example, our government might find the right calibrated tax system, create sustainable development through a reinvestment rate, better calculate the long tail ROI of private-public investment, determine the contributing economic factors of some institutions, etc...)

5.Lockdowns of COVID-19 Variants.

6.High levels of debt (Something we should work on. Two philosophies...create a better economic mousetrap and the other is to cut our budgets as a way out of it. Similar in struggling businesses. To me we build a better economic system and then cut wasted fat out of programs through ethics, metrics, and performance. If something isn't working find new alternatives and adapt institutions to enhance the larger economic system. Such improvement concepts can apply to almost anything that ranges from medical care to farming. Its a process of continuous tweaking policies without all the ideological poo poo that doesn't allow for constructive change.)

7.Geopolitical issues (Russia-Ukraine, Hyper-Politics in the US, etc....These are risks our politicians should keep in mind.)

8.Natural Disasters (Floods, droughts, etc...)

9.Pricing revisions for technology sector (The volatility might be an indication of upcoming changes that lead into the Digital Era. It should be remember that it is a period of transition and not just a single transition point. We will debate privacy rights, new companies emerging on the market, old companies going bust, and the its part of the total process of transformational change through creative destruction. See Schumpeter.)

 

Reading reports like this to try and understand the global markets and how that impacts my country and the theory I'm working on.   

January 2022 IMF report 'Rising Caseloads, A Disrupted Recovery, and Higher Inflation'

Source IMF January 2022

Fitness for Busy Professionals: An Hour and Out!

For those who are busy and still want to stay in shape it take a little time management and diligence to achieve one's goals. That can be difficult for busy professionals that need to get to the gym, manage families and master the art of boardroom battles (Ok...most of the time its not a battle, but think of it as competition where you have to be your best.). Getting your workout in within an hour can be difficult but here is what I suggest. 

I've been in great shape and I have been in bad shape. It all depends on where I'm putting my effort. I do have a fitness trainers license and engaged in martial arts from time to time. Whether your trying to master the stomach bulge that keeps growing or just get into better health you may want to consider a couple of things. 

1.) Eating and Calorie Intake: What you eat will make a big different. Seek to maximize clean protein and lots of veggies (I haver some very serious fitness friends that do low low carbs and lots of fruit. I think everything should be in balance. Complex carbs, more veggies, and less sugary fruits.). Keep Track of Calories App.

2. Weights 30 Minutes: Weights are important to maintain your overall strength. If you are into self-defense and martial arts you will want to make sure that you are doing your weights to create a level of cross training and muscle speed (I would not recommend only doing weights like some sports trainers profess.) 

3. Cardio 30 Minutes: This is where you are going to get your heart in shape. There are benefits beyond calories alone. Matching positive eating habits mixed within vigorous cardio can make a big difference. 

None of this stops you from doing other stuff on top like hiking, biking, practice, yoga (highly recommended for athletes), and other stuff. We have an obesity problem in this country to its wise to teach people about fitness beyond highschool sports!

There is a pretty good study that discuss the necessity of calories and cardio for weight loss: You can read about that HERE. 

If you are new to the Escanaba/Gladstone area (maybe part of some of the local investments), a digital nomad or something else consider finding a gym that fits your needs. There is a good one in downtown that has all the basics you need for about $40 a month. 

Swift, D. L., Johannsen, N. M., Lavie, C. J., Earnest, C. P., & Church, T. S. (2014). The role of exercise and physical activity in weight loss and maintenance. Progress in cardiovascular diseases, 56(4), 441–447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pcad.2013.09.012

U.P. Pictures in the Winter! Brrrrrrr!!!!

Its winter and as I drive through the UP from Mackinac Bridge to Escanaba Michigan (My Hometown) we get to see the cold weather alive with all of its biting glory. 14 degrees...almost beach weather for locals! Think of Alaska or Siberia!❆. Small towns, outdoor activities, and fireplaces/wood stoves. You can pull your snow shoes off the wall and go rabbit hunting or trapping. Maybe your more into downhill or cross country skiing. I think this town may someday be a hot investment market because of its 4 seasons and rugged beauty that appeals to a certain type of person. The pictures didn't turn out as great as I planned but you get the picture. :) Most of the lakes are iced over and people are out ice fishing. 

9 Officers Shot at in Phoenix-Strengthening Our Police and Strengthening Our Society

The world is not always a safe place and bad people sometimes do bad things! When I hear of officers being shot it saddens my heart. We keep going back to the whole gun violence and how some feel that the gun is the way to solve problems. Our police are in the streets trying to help people and should not be put in harm's way. No matter what one's personal leanings are on larger issues, its not acceptable to use guns to harm others. We want a safe society.  Criminal violence is dark and it should be thwarted. 

Enhancing policing also means increasing tactics research and training methods to ensure coverage and protection during dangerous close quarter incidents where lots of blind corners are present. At the same time, it offers a chance to think about all other ways in which we can connect communities and policing toward the very same positive goals and ends. Growing violence is an increasing concern for everyone involved. 

I'm a big supporter of police, civil rights, constructive conversations and problem resolution. We can solve this problem but its going to take more than ideological rigidity. Police are all part of our American family and when police become targets of criminal behaviors the very best thing we can do is enhance them across different spectrums to ensure they are protected and public stake holders support their efforts (This isn't legitimate protest...this is criminal behavior! They were trying to protect a woman and a baby! 😠). 

We pray for those who are injured in this senseless violence. I'm angry when I see this disease in our communities grow! Let's enhance our police, lets fix our problems, and let's get our family back at the table for the best interest of everyone involved. We can throw a blanket on crime, improve outcomes while still improving trust in the policing institution. Let's get smarter and let's adapt as a people. Where there is a will there is a way! 💜

Indo-Pacific Economic Framework: Partnering with Asia for Long Term US Growth

The Indio-Pacific Economic Framework is a hot discussion in world markets right now. It is in the process of forming and lots of great ideas are being bounced around by key administrators and key stakeholders. This is a time when the rise of China and the rejuvenation of the U.S. (hopefully) are competing for regional influence. Asian markets are important and so is the hedging of knowledge and resources. How that framework should come together is not written in stone but you can read some of the key points below through the development of a broader economic reemergence strategy.

From a generalists view the U.S. must manufacture products (virtual and physical) and that can only come from innovation, data infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing. Resources, information, ideas, and advancement must peculate toward U.S. developmental centers (To me that looks like clusters but each person might see something a little different.) and high value products must move outwards toward world markets (See Global Value Hubs, Transactional In-Out Flow). 

Keeping up on changes and legislative action is important for understanding the whole.

Indo-Pacific Economic Framework

Main points of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework related to ASEAN member states as released on Oct 27th, 2021 in Readout of President Biden’s Participation in the East Asia Summit. 

-Trade Facilitation
-Digital Economy and Technology Standards
-Supply Chain Resiliency
-Decarbonization and Clean Energy
-Infrastructure Development
-Worker Standards
-Other Shared Interests

-Commitment to International Order (democracy, human rights, rule of law, and freedom of the seas.)

The call to create a stronger Indo-Pacific Economic framework was also discussed during an East Asian Summit and highlighted within a Congressional Research Service December 2nd, 2021 release Biden Administration Signals Plans for an Indo-Pacific Economic Framework 

-The White House has indicated interest in finding solutions on trade facilitation, digital trade, supply chain resiliency, clean energy, infrastructure, and worker standards.

-A growing desire to counter China's growing influence in the region through stronger trade initiatives.

-Open questions to Congress on the nature of the agreements, its economic benefits and other trade issues. 

Opinion Piece Filling in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework

G 7 Global Infrastructure

Matthew P. Goodman & William Reinsch put together an opinion piece entitled Filling In the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. They want to ensure that such frameworks provide tangible benefits for both Americans and Indo-Pacific partners through commitments based on coordination, transparency and inclusiveness. The following key points are taken directly from the report.

-Develop the Framework: the framework should seek to advance binding rules and hard commitments that go beyond broad principles and goals.  

-Trade Facilitation: Simplifying and improving import and export procedures at the border are critical to promoting jobs and growth, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

-Digital Economy and Technology Standards: Develop U.S.-preferred digital rules and norms in the Indo-Pacific region.

-Supply Chain Resilience: Creating resilience and redundancy in critical supply chain infrastructure. 

-Decarbonization and Clean Energy: Encouraging clean energy, renewable energy and decarbonization by key partners. 

-Infrastructure: Develop infrastructure of the tune of $26 Trillion with the Build Back Better World of the (G7) leaders. 

-Worker Rights: Because of the high potential of exploitation there should be a commitment to worker rights. 

-Other Areas: A general category of miscellaneous improvements. 

There isn't much I disagree with within the report. Some of the things are opinion oriented while others make a lot of sense. We will want to keep in mind in any decision making 1). how it strengthens the U.S. and allies, 2.) puts the U.S. toward the center of creation of the supply chain for maximizing long-term value (i.e. flow of products, resources, opportunities, etc.) 3.) prepares the U.S. for long-term international social and economic influence (We still have a responsibility to be the best we can be as a nation and a people.)  

APEC: Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation

The mission of the organization is ,"APEC is the premier Asia-Pacific economic forum. Our primary goal is to support sustainable economic growth and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region"

-Free and open trade and investment,
-Promoting and accelerating regional economic integration,
-Encouraging economic and technical cooperation,
-Enhancing human security,
-Facilitating a favorable and sustainable business environment.

A couple of other article and bulletins you might be interested in are Statement by Press Secretary Jen Psaki on the United States Hosting APEC in 2023, Matt Murray U.S. SENIOR OFFICIAL FOR ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION (APEC), Announcement of Matt Murray as U.S. Senior Official for Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)

Side Note: I'm sort of looking at these things because I would like the U.P. of Michigan to develop a few key locations that have strategic purpose which would relate to some of our treaties and happenings in Asia and the rest of the world. That doesn't mean I want to overdevelop the area but that there are locations where real improvement can be made and that could increase the competitive advantages in terms of innovation and supply chain that leads to advanced manufacturing, military-aerospace development, and encourage regional growth of other states (and CAN) based upon new initiatives and policies. That of course comes with opportunities for local residents. This is sort of part of a process of Environmental Scanning 

One might wonder what the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework has to to with the U.P. of Michigan and specifically in places like Escanaba (and other locations). Supply chain development and importation of products from and to Asia relates to our own development. The Great Lakes can be a major catalyst in rejuvenating the U.S. to be not only at the center of innovation and supply chains but also simply the best place to do business (investment, infrastructure, civil rights, international business law, human capital, etc....) 

 The Ambassadors
1533
Hans Holbein the Younger

Rejuvenation (American Renaissance) doesn't happen unless we create a mental framework of how all of our activities can lead to improved growth for us and our partners. One advantage China has through Communist mechanisms is control of the economy that leads to short term growth. That same control limits innovation and development from an organic level (controlled vs. uncontrolled). When the U.S. builds a framework and can motivate people to work within it as (i.e. the new Digital Economy with advanced innovation and manufacturing that also can protect American data . See a Data Driven World) the pieces align organically, micro oriented, and in turn be much more innovative than any other top down form of governance (Negative Dollar and Productivity Example, Developing Networks, US Competitive Position, Global Lightening). 

The power of freedom and democracy may start slow but once it builds momentum with like minded patrons it becomes a world powerhouse. If managed well, It will maintain opportunities for generations to come through self rejuvenation and perpetual growth (See Life Cycle Rejuvenation and Economics & Self Motivation). 

You may also want to read a little on the Digital Trade which is going to be important for the emerging Digital Economy and its associated advanced economic structure. HERE We are the cusp of great change! I took the quote from the report, "U.S. exports of information and communication technology (ICT) goods and services were $148 billion and $80 billion, respectively. In addition, exports of potential digitally-enabled services were $499 billion, comprising over half of U.S. services exports" Now imagine if physical and virtual goods begin integrating into one and the high level of new value such new development lines bring. 

Pretty much...the country that can build the first advanced tech large scale manufacturing society is likely to earn the lions share of international investment that continues to grow because of infrastructure (digital and physical) efficiency/effectiveness and having all the elements needed to maximize investor dollars (Not to mention the First In secondary benefits like military, space, and personal technologies.).  Its kind of aim once and shoot once opportunity but some of our politicians might be having more fun arguing than solving problems. While arguing is ego driven fun it often leads to lost opportunities (Think of how important this next 10 years will be and how this election will give or diminish momentum.).

The hyper dysfunction we are experiencing as a nation is why I support a larger central political stance, make deals where they make sense, and focusing on the long term health of the nation. Isn't that why they were elected? (Leadership-Executive, Leadership Model and Leader Cognitive Differentiation). Maybe it would be helpful for our business community to nudge a little by stop donating to politicians that are unwilling to compromise and unwilling to do what is in the best interest of society (Republican, Democrat or Independent in any preferred order you want to put them.).  It might create pressure that pays dividends for all Americans now and in the future. Transformational change is an "all hands on deck" kind of affair. We all have a stake in our future and its not up to any political group or entity to destroy it for the rest of us just because they want to win elections (Putting our money into those that want to actually lead in an evidence based problem solving manner for the benefit vast majority of society is important. Wisdom, "Ethics", Leader Moral Reasoning, Ethics Vacuum, Moral Character, Simple Beliefs Ethics,  Political Disagreements, , Aristotle's Friendship, City in Sea)

Just as a hypothetical discussion.....if business, media, technology, investors and centralist politicians worked together.....I wonder if it would be enough to change our trajectory and options? (It would probably at least influence the culture of politics significantly if "big mouths" didn't get any money or support? ). 🤷 (China Expects to Overcome the U.S. , Platforms in Society, Perpetual Sustainable Development, Two Biggest Threats, and Grand Strategies.) Wow! Way out there in Theory mapping!!!! Kind of interesting to think about as one possibility of right sizing the ship. It would be immoral to say which politicians should or shouldn't receive money but we know intuitively which are willing to compromise and which one's are self-seeking in their ideological demands! Nationalism or Patriotism 🤓 The business community should be familiar with picking out the "problem" employees and not encouraging or promoting them with corporate dollars (Kind of opposite of campaign finance reform in a Level K kind of thinking. Maybe we can tackle that at a later date when we get through the hump.)  Other "kind of" related interesting reading might include Social cognition, Business collaboration, ' Post Covid,  Evolutions, Business Trends, Innovation and Human Capital, Keynesian-Schumpeter, DC Rejuvenation, Stakeholder Theory Bounded Rationality, Sustainable Marketing, Postal Reform, Innovative Structures, Strategy Formation, Evidence Management, Evolutionary Economics, Business & Government Performance, Economic Choice, Game Theory US/China, Haiku Poem

Kind of makes you think doesn't it? 🤔Just imagine if we picked our leaders by their inherent qualities and not their politics. A sort of paradigm shift. Not sure where that would lead. Maybe it would be a good change that would lead to better outcomes. Either way I'm pretty sure it would have a positive effect on our democracy as the large but silent "rational middle" is given more influence 🤷  Naaaaa just forget it! Doing the same thing over and over seems to be our preferred path! 😮🙊

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” 

Einstein Insanity in Scientific American.

I should probably say before someone gets upset. 😬This isn't about any particular person, party, approach, etc... it is just an opportunity to understand that democracy should allow good ideas to bubble up and encourage leaders to think beyond their own needs (Strategic Leadership). A type of theory play using practical modern events/stories to create deeper learning in online classrooms. No such thing as a "Book of Indisputable Facts" so questioning is our God given right! 💗💨

We-Economics

Escanaba City Council Meeting (Thursday February 03, 2022)-Water, Waste and Jail!!!!

Escanaba is a great little rugged eco-forest city in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The potential of this town is amazing and not fully developed. The City Hall meeting offers a great opportunity for citizens to keep up-to-date on local events and see democracy in action. Its possible to work toward the creation of a thriving tourist destination that attracts start-ups, small batch manufacturing, distribution and other key actors when city, state, federal and investor interests align. People that like the outdoors may also want to start a business downtown (I would recommend tourism micro production, design/engineering firms, digital workers, government, and a few other emerging options) that can draw in new talent, jobs and wealth. 

Sorry...I remise into the possibilities. This is where you want to turn off Netflix or Hulu and turn on your local "Game of Thrones". You can watch the action below......

A Few Key Notes/Points:

The Fountain in Ludington Park
I used to throw fish in there and then 
take the quarters when I was a kid
for chips Gust Asp. It was a good deal!
The fountain was a great customer of my
fresh fish from the harbor.

It is probably easier to read the Agenda February 3, 2022 

-Opps not a big issue on an incorrect appointment. Things happen in the shuffle. As long as everyone good with it there are no worries. 

-Ad hoc Committee: Ad hoc Committee on jail site. I'm curious about what this committee will do and what is going on with the previous sale of County Jail property and the hotel interest. 4 proposals.

-Chief Executive Officer and City Manager confusion. Who fits the role? DDA discussion on appointed versus elected.

-Bonding for $10.5 million for drinking water projects of which would likely cost be around $4 million. Michigan Finance Authority’s (“MFA”) Drinking Water State Revolving Fund Program (DWSRF).-

-There are some differences in opinion on the philosophical approach to democracy and public voting on big projects. 

- Purchase a 2021 John Deere 304L Four Wheel Drive Loader from McCoy Construction Forestry of Escanaba, MI, at a cost not to exceed $96,500.00

-I'm very curious about this jail project because of some open questions I, and likely others, have about it and why the project didn't turn out as planned. Not yet saying there is anything wrong but sometimes that little radar goes up and it makes you sort of ponder the grey areas. 🤔 Lots of promotion among key people (nothing wrong with that inherently either) but a few other issues/concepts/data seem to not connect well together. I once asked someone who worked at the old jail site why a new jail versus refurbishing was preferred (I actually might agree that the site is prime real estate and would catch a good price on the market if it was sold and used properly to enhance the downtown.)? The answer I got sounded more like a rehearsed/repeated sales pitch without other possible options versus an actual discussion (I just noted the matter of fact nature of the discussion in my head with no specific meaning when it was first being discussed. Some of that seems to have more meaning now as the context forms.) It may have been better to build a new jail but it just seemed to skip over some important points. Without actually looking into the transactions (behaviors, interests, history, monies, etc...), there would seem to be some puffy smoke that should be cleared. Highly enthusiastic or something more? No idea!🤷

-Survey Monkey. Its a pretty good service (for the price) and lots of researchers use it. In Survey Monkey you can do all types of different statistics that can come to some beneficial conclusions (i.e. Descriptive Stats T-Test). The problem is that you don't want too much information in the demographic section unless it is relevant to the actual project. However, enough to run these sort of issues makes sense. You can actually include a pdf of the proposals, let people vote on them (even different aspects of them), and then put in public comments. Qualtrics is another good option. The biggest thing I would say is that the wording of questions can have an impact on outcomes. (Also make sure you click the option that doesn't allow people to take the survey multiple times. Some people with opinions on public topics sometimes get all excited and like to go back and fill it out 20 or 30 times. ) Because of other issues with the jail project the city may want to include someone from outside the area on the ad hoc recommendation committee to give an impartial perspective on the topic . 😳

-Solar Panels. Where you can, when it makes sense, and improves on the bottom line, cities should implement green initiatives such as renewable energy. As solar and battery technology advances there will be increased savings, cost and functionality. Escanaba experience something like $290K savings in energy costs! $67K transmission costs! Oh Yaaa! 🥳

-Notice that the Internet use is on the rise and that is a good sign with some of the tech investments in broadband in the area. Sometimes it is helpful for business investors to get into markets before they move to a larger upswing. There are risks involved but when hedged with other investments can lead to a stronger investment portfolio. 

Grab your locally grown organic sustainable practice popcorn before you start watching! Better than a Packer Game!

Dolphin Schools in San Diego (Videos) and Dolphin Research Organizations

I missed a whale watching opportunity with some friends but they did get some great shots of dolphins. The second video is one that I did take of dolphins while sailing with friends but unfortunately a little too far away to be a great shot (I got in trouble for neglecting my duties. 😬). Either way, dolphins are important to our society and live with humans in and near the coasts. Protecting dolphins and ensuring we move to a cleaner and more efficient society that helps to benefit living with nature vs living over nature (One reason why I think ecologically contained cities with reusable technology could do a lot to protect nature from human based pollution. We are kind of the ones encroaching on the planet. There is going to be greater push for cleaner technologies.)

If your interested in Dolphin research (and/or donate) you can take a look at Dolphin Research Center, National Marine Mammal Foundation, Scripts Institution of Oceanography, and Hubbs SeaWorld Research (I called them once on a hurt sea lion hit by a ship rudder. Kind of sad. 😪). Of course if you just want to get up close and personal with dolphins try the SeaWorld Dolphin Encounter Tour. 

You can also check out some cool military uses for dolphins that help protect American lives through reconnaissance, recovery and search & rescue. The Navy supports and publishes lots of research that that is used to better understand dolphins, take care of them and encourages better care and management of schools. Military research is a win-win situation when significant discoveries are provided to key societal stakeholders. Navy’s Marine Mammal Program