Sunday, September 8, 2024

Delta County Board of Commissioners Meeting (8/20/2024) Team Dynamics and Archeology

A couple of interesting things related to how they are forming their team and trying to enhance admin processes. In any team development there is going to be a level of forming as each person finds a level of homeostatis and then there is going to be some adjustments after that as initial impressions give way to deeper understanding of each person's management style. Team Dynamics

-Listening to Department Heads: The concept of sharing knowledge and creating flow at different levels of the organization is helpful. 

-Archeology, Native American, and Dunes protection. Michigan Archeological Society

-360 Evaluations for Employees

-Part time veteran admin. 

-Collective Bargaining Agreement Road Patrol.

Research on The Characteristics of the Morally Exceptional

Lovers Stroll
Most profits go to charity.
Good poeple are needed and what makes one morally exceptional when comparied to the herd is an interesting question. The question of why some poeple act so selfish and why a few are not has been ongoing for sometime. Some studies have associated good values with intentelligence, abstract thought, ability to role reverse, etc. Notice it has nothing to do with rigid ideologies.

Its not easy to be moral. Let us be honest for a second. Humans are somewhat selfish and are designed for self survival so most of their psychology is self oriented. They want and want and there is no end to that deep hole. However, some people have a higher capacity to do amazing things for society while others do not. The study in the Journal of Personality provides some interesting insightes (Fleeson, et. al, 2023).

1. Empathetic and prone to guilt;

2. Reflect and identify with morality;

3..Have self-control and enact moral behaviors;

4. Care about harm, compassion, fairness, and honesty

As an example, let us say a group becomes destructive and exploits racial, religious, and corrupted networks to push for their financial and social gain. That would be a sign of low moral development that we have seen in history. Let us say people stood up against that and held their head high despite the complacency of such behaviors. That would be a sign of higher moral development and we often see the good eventually overcome the darkness. On The Issues of Morality and Law 

Societies and economies are made and broke on their morality and willingness of people to work toward a greater good. Society in and of itself is a collection of transactions based on cultural programming that either enhance or detract from its development.

"How selfish soever man may be supposed, there are evidently some principles in his nature, which interest him in the fortune of others, and render their happiness necessary to him, though he derives nothing from it except the pleasure of seeing it." Adam Smith

Fleeson, W. et. al. (August 8, 2023). Consensus, controversy, and chaos in the attribution of characteristics to the morally exceptional. Jouranal of Personality 92 (3). https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jopy.12867



Saturday, September 7, 2024

Resolving Embedded Extremism and Corruption in Local Institutions (Model Development)

All people have a right to good governance and fair treatment. The very concept of life and liberty is deeply woven into our social fabric. Most people seek to create a free and fair environment where people flourish in a way that draws the best out of others. Sometimes there are embedded groups that carry with them not only corrupted behaviors but also social dominance mixed with extremist views. Other times we are aware of these groups but make differentiations of who can commit what crimes depending who is the perpetrators and who are the targets. Where these things occur we have a moral responsibility to deter that which robs from the rest of us of our collective good as a now highly diverse society in order to ensure we not only create that positive environment but we also managed all systems for the greater benefit of the people. We can do that through a thought experiment that seeks to explore a hypothetical example, build a model and move to final resolution.

Keep in mind this is an example for learning purposes so it is meant to be a little extreme and bazaar (no pun intended.). 

What we can do is think about in the Age of Extremism and whether or not that is going to have an impact on our communities and how that might influence the economy in the long run. This piece is not yet discussing the economy but there are implications and research that show the more extremism and corruption rise, the more damage to things like economic development, quality of life, return on public investment, etc. (Its associated in the literature. The Impact of Corruption on Economic Growth). Thus, finding ways to minimize extremism and corruption is important to maintain the strength of economic performance. In this example there was a near 2 decade decline in the example economy and population but once corruption was started to be removed as a societal cancer there was a reverse of fortunes. When corruption and/or extremism cannot be removed organically through natural mechanisms one might bringing  forward a case for federal oversite to minimize"extremist nests" supported by tacit support from toxic partisanship. 

Let us keep the example not too far out in la la land..... 

Rarely, except for in third world nations where broken institutions are abundant, will we find a deeply embedded culture of corruption unchecked by other stakeholders. Most of the time what we will find is a group of bad actors that skew the concept of justice through things like intimidation tactics, retaliation, targeting, bribery, extortion, witness/statement tampering, hate rumors, putting people in harms way, corruption, etc. mixed in with general indifference (The ugly stuff!). In other words, in this learning purpose example we have a situation where lawlessness becomes more important than lawfulness based on these homogeneous affiliations and somewhat indiferrence to the plight of many good people. We may also find no protection for those being targeted and little desire within such local systems to fix the problem thereby leading to a type of complacency and/or dereliction of duty. Strengthening institutions and finding new mechanisms for minimizing negative influences of bad actors is helpful in preserving the health of whole (Why Federal oversight may be needed in places where they are deeply embedded in the social network and nepotism policies are unenforced.) 

Let use further explore this hypothetical thought experiment example for learning purposes on how lofty concepts such as liberty, justice, fair treatment, equality, etc. are considered dirty words when sifted through the minds of extremist member and projected on out-group members (i.e. outgroup members anyway one seeks to define such members). In this example good officials are silenced by social influence that further ensures extremist members can continue to act without hindrance or backstop (i.e. lack of internal controls and/or misuse of authority and investigations.). A corrosive influence on institutions that exploits the vulnerable with coordinated misbehaviors under the watchful eyes of supporters (The in-group that will become out-group when the lens gets wider.)

The Hypothetical Learning Example:

Getting a little wild and crazy with the example. “When the world says, Give up. Hope whispers. Try it one more time.” King Tut

A group of self interested people spread intentionally bigoted rumors through their social and professional networks to harm a victim (as well as others) in order to help their friends exploit racial or religious differences for gain. The perpetrators knew they were being destructive and they and their friends mocked the targets whenever they saw them. Elderly were manipulated, children put in harms way, hate behaviors encouraged, so on and so forth in general chaos creation. Behaviors against targets included following home, dehumanizing rumors, blocking employment, exploitation, actualized attempted threats of violence by a large group, secretive extremist managed hit lists, etc. Further, because they were connected to a number of corrupted officials who have become accustomed to misusing authority to target out-group members (race, religion, lifestyle or politics) such behavior took on a surreal creepy Steven King like quality (i.e. clones and followers acting in robo behaviors.). Such hate also attracted a network of anti-government militia supporting extremists with close association to likeminded corrupted officials and "the clan" but also indication of further connecitons outside the area. Others came forward with similar complaints of mistreatment and long stemming illegal behaviors only to be ignored and discarded until they put their complaints on public camera and the community confirmed their support for the ideals of freedom. The perpetrators were rewarded through the local systems without regard to truth or justice. The perpetrators laughed all the way to the bank and continue to target out-group members with threats and hate rumor spreading with full immunities. Those who complained were quickly retaliated against through street justice and promoted wink and nod accountability. There were suggestions that the intentional lack of backstops was not accidental, random, or sporadic but may be an attempt to please a homogeneous "in-group" membership based on social affiliation and ethnocentric identities. Entitlement of key actors to use aspects of institutions to benefit themselves, their ideologies and miscued perceptions of superiority (Status and Development). In this example there has been no correction within the system but the will of the people did switch many of the local leadership positions through democratic processes. Where systems failed the people stayed true to the American cause. Suh people might now turn their attention to voting out those who provided protections for criminal behaviors. Concerns over systems of justice and their outcomes still loom as the root of the problem has been discovered but uncorrected through willful negligence and rejection of our sacred national oaths. The end of the story hasn't been written yet so let us not be hasty in judgement. Good can come from wrong and its important to be a rational optimist. Freedom will survive no matter the barbarity of the few. We have a history of free passing hate but as the nation's demographics change places that practice segregationist methods will feel increasingly more pressure to universalize and correct their deficiencies-as rightly they should if they hold true to their missions!

You will never know how much it has cost my generation to preserve your freedom. I hope you will make a good use of it.” - John Adams
The Issue: 

In this hypothetical example some people who launched the hate narrative knew well what they were doing as the coordinated acts of intimidation and cleansing were professionally enacted (i.e. a history of these behaviors.).  It brings up bigger moral conscious issues and whether rogue elements should be allowed to function in near direct counter/opposition of to our national values. It is also unfair that good officials must deal with aggressively corrupted officials that do not respect the missions of their organizations nor the law. Good officials should expect an environment where raises, promotions, work assignments, etc. are based on merit and not social nepotism of clan members. New models to detect, thwart and prosecute are necessary for the health of the republic. Sometimes we need authority from outside the area to raise the liberty torch higher because some people within such systems no longer believe in following their oaths. More importantly new models to minimize and detect partisanship in judicial systems to ensure they function for all of us (i.e. big data approach). Philosophically we must protect the integrity of the spirit of the law over its technicalities to support the higher conception of justice (This can be a difficult concept to sell if we are hyper focused with the pathology of bigotry.). Without justice we are creating a subhuman and second class type citizen that are subject to intentional mistreatment. We should not let such systems gain a foothold and when we find them we should improve and reform them so to service the needs of communities. With justice our compass points true north for the benefit of all and in support of the long term health of the republic. The Concept of Freedom: Liberal and Conservative

If freedom of speech is taken away, then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter.” — George Washington
Developing the Model: 

Because we have growing extremism and sometimes placation of corruption we also run the risk of institutional decline. One way to support positive and universal proAmerican change is to understand how corruption and hate function when manipulating justice. Strong justice systems are important for the health of the nation because they can put checks and balances on extremism and its outcomes. However, that will require also understanding how it works and some of the potential solutions. What we can say is that extremism and corruption would not be rampant if there wasn't a socialization through something like clan based affiliations with a lack of local backstops. How or why those backstops are not present in such an example system would require further exploration of the topic and perhaps an audit of all cases/outcomes based on differentiators/variables such as race, religion, "local"/non-local, political affiliation, etc. to see if there are statistically significant differences. Once one determines that they can also utilize such cases to go back and review which officials are associated and what they may have witnessed and proposed. It could be as simple as a group of rogue actors/gang or it could be a much larger systemic issue. At least in theory.  Thus, if you have it mapped socially/behaviorally who was involved in direct corruption and extremism upon review one might also find another mapping system to other members and/or same members through court related documents (i.e. witness statements, testimony, etc.). You would have a strong cases if one has 4 or 5 different sources of data on the corrupted officials and their extremist networks. People who knew such behaviors were going on for a long time are forced into silence for fear they will be retaliated against as well so the model is designed to avoid complete system default. Reviewing all of these data sources may allow one to go back and ensure that the testimonies, witness statements, etc. were accurate and not tainted. This triangulation and highlighting embedded networks becomes possible in a big data world which may more conclusively tackle corruption and extremism to minimize its influence on justice outcomes (assuming that is the goal as alternative objective may make some of this irrelevant in a Captain Kangaroo kind of way.).

Predictive analytics allows businesses [Entity/Organization] to predict what is likely to happen in the future, by looking for patterns in the information they already have” (Witherspoon, 2024 para. 1)

At present in this thought experiment we can say we have a few associated elements of corruption, at least a few officials, lax oversight in judicial systems, extremist leaning behaviors, and a dunce like social group (most are good people but are easily manipulated by key actors). Worse it is well known that you can engage in these behaviors any time the social group wants because the perpetrators were never held to account (History has already taught us about the damage of segregation and those who continue to promote it.) What might tie these people together beyond simple social connections is a perception of value based on deeper nationalistic (vs. patriotic) perceptions of their roles and responsibilities. Thus, nationalism and hate appear to be someone associated and carries risks for people subject to local clan based systems. One might advocate for reform and a universal focus of our institutions to prevent a backsliding democracy. More importantly in these examples we learn how we have little understanding of extremism and corruption and a somewhat blind eye to crimes such groups commit and the rewards they gain. Each day perpetrators are pated on the back for a cleansing well done is another stone stolen from the once strong foundation that protected our democracy from backsliding. Miscategorization shouldn't be a new artform. Let us hope we find the courage and strength to put our hands together patch up the damage such groups have done and will do to our nation. We can create better mechanisms if we have a commitment to a free nation and people. That therein could be part of the problem. Preventing Extremism

The time to guard against corruption and tyranny is before they shall have gotten hold of us. It is better to keep the wolf out of the fold, than to trust to drawing his teeth and talons after he shall have entered. -Thomas Jefferson

To Sum this learning example we find that there are few to no backstops within the system, there is a struggle to understand domestic extremism as it relates to certain races or religions, and missuse of power and corruption have a corrosive influence on institutions. The victims become responsibile for the systemic failures of others. However, the silver lining is that the average American holds within their grasp the power to change our trajectory toward a more inclusive society based on the spirit of the law and not its misuse  through work play and technicalities. The average Amercian has the capacity to vote and uphold the principles that keep this nation strong and growing. As an example thought experiment story we have not finished the ending and we do that collectively as a society. Every American has a word in our nation's future and when we work as an indivisible people to post our words publically we create our own narrative as an individisible people. Let us stay tuned for further discussion on a free and fair society and how sociological changes and technologigal advancements come together to push society to a universal democracy. We can strengthen our institutions against those who misunderstand their purpose so as to ensure the bell of liberty is heard from sea to shining sea. Don't be a sell out!

Democratical States must always feel before they can see: it is this that makes their Governments slow – but the people will be right at last.”- George Washington

A few articles on corruption:

Anti Corruption Courts: Courts have been created to handle corruption. 

Underlining Human Rights and Rule of Law

The Relationship between Human Rights and Corruption

Political Extremism, Crime and Criminal Justice

For the next article let us discuss some of the markers and characteristices of areas at risk for unchecked corruption and extremism so as to avoid such problems in the future...even if they could never happen!

*This is a hypothetical example for learning purposes. It is a type of thought experiment on understanding extremism and corruption by protecting freedom of speech, freedom of religion, the Constitution and our other social contracts. Take with a grain of salt. It meant to be politically neutral and constructive in nature to support our democracy. 

Witherspoon, A. (2024). What is Predictive Analytics? Salesforce. https://www.salesforce.com/analytics/what-is-predictive-analytics/



Friday, September 6, 2024

August Job Report 142K+ and Beehive Labor Allocation

"Here in the hive" by dullhunk is marked
 with 
Public Domain Mark 1.0
.
 The market continues to show a soft landing. Looking at what jobs are being added to the economy and those that are declining can indicate some of the upcoming activities and business projections. We are a social beehive type creatures so as our society becomes increasingly sophisticated we will find changes in our labor market. Research helps support the idea that specialization typically occurs as economies develop. Beyond this we can start to include the concept of creativity/science with high technical-technology skills in the development of economic contributory value.

While we are a maturing economy we may find move to certain types of provider service type labor allocations. However, ensuring that we are also producing new value thorugh manufacturing and trade will also be important as we capitalize on recent technological changes. While services might be high we want to strengthen the development of our human capital, innovaiton and manufacturing capabilities. 

You may be interested in a study on Economic Development and Organization of Labor 

142K jobs lukewarm. August 2024 BLS Release

Winneers: Construction, Private Service Providing, Healthcare and Social Assistance, Leaisure and Hospitality, Government

Loosers: Manufacturing, Retail Trade





Wednesday, September 4, 2024

Advanced GDP Estimate 3% with Lukewarm Economic Numbers (Economic Platform Stabilization)

There appears to be relatively stable economic numbers for August as of now. We did have a little dip in unemployment the month prior and a small increase in manufacturing. GDP and industrial investments seem to be rising a little. One might say that it appears still to be a fairly stable and healthy economy. People were projecting declines and all over the map so realizing something a little less exciting is helpful. To have a 3% advanced GDP measurement with lukewarm economic numbers is not the worst place to be.

What I'm looking for is whether there is a longer term homeostasis sustainable growth after the disruption of Covid in 2020. We had some bouncing around in economic shocks, a bump in growth and more stability thereafter as businesses, consumers, policies, and in general the economy adapted. We also saw an increased infrastructure as well as a level of digital shifts and improve technology adaptation. Supply chains also shifted.

 What one might wonder is if we are going into that Data/Information Age platform? Time answers all questions.

One thing small towns like Escanaba might consider is to look at the technology and emerging trends to determine the best place in which they can beat the market. For example, technology firms, micro custom manufacturing, ship building, paper products, small business/entrepreneurship in the downtown, skilled trades education, etc. hedged with things like tourism, and natural resources. That could depend on the ability to coordinate the local business community and develop methods to raise awareness of investment opportunities and find conduits for exportation. 

Here is something on Economic Platforms. I have been working on a theory for about 15 years on clusters and one of the ideas was that our economy would shift to new economic platforms and those countries that did it first would have long-tail benefits in terms of manufacturing, quality of life, and other attributes. i.e. Digital Era. Economic-Sociological Platforms (This article is really about exploration of an idea and not meant to create causal proof of any type.)

-Unemployment stays about the Same

-GDP Rises

-Wages and Technology seem to be growing together (wait and see)

-Manufacturing PMI 47.2% manufacturers indicated expansion below the 50 break even point. (Slight Improvement) Manf. PMI

The Need for New Jobs

Productivity-Employment Nexus

The following was taken from Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), Second Quarter 2024

 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $57.6 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $47.1 billion in the first quarter (table 10).

-Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $46.4 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $65.0 billion in the first quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $29.2 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $114.5 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $18.0 billion, in contrast to an increase of $2.3 billion. In the second quarter, receipts decreased $6.2 billion, and payments increased $11.8 billion.

Unemployment for August 2024 stays the same. BEA Sept. 4, 2024



U.S. Treasury Indicates Small Business Accounts for 71% of New Jobs (Post Covid)

New jobs are important and that can have an impact on opportunity. Some have argued we have become very top heavy with large corporations and not enough entrepreneurship in the working and middle classes. Large corporations are great for global penetration but they also run the risk of stifling innovation in the long run if new ideas are muted in corporate processes. 

Small business often impacts mid and long term growth as owners implement new ideas in their nimble businesses. That then can lead to whole new areas of development. Some of these businesses will become larger corporations down the road. 

One might also wonder about the benefits of small business on towns like Escanaba. Because small businesses fits well with small towns stronger local, state and federal policies that encourage redevelopment of downtowns to improve quality of life and local wealth retention will be helpful. 

With any luck we will likely see these new business start kicking in to create higher GDP in the next few years. Some impact of this post Covid entrepreneurship can be seen already. The U.S. should have a pro growth mix of small, medium, and large businesses. 

Treasury Department and Small Business Post Covid

Monday, September 2, 2024

Rock the Dock Music Brings Large Crowds and Commerce

 Escanaba put on the Rock the Dock Labor Day with food, music, and more. It was so much fun we went just after the parade and then at 5 before the ball dropped. Corn on the cob was delicious! This was a free event but research supports the idea that music events can be good for the local economy. Live Music and Economy