Introducing the Fencing Flick

The fencing flick is a move that would likely make the traditionalists cringe when seeing it in tournament. The action is so quick fencers have a hard time formulating a proper defense. It is not generally taught at the college level under traditional curriculum and came into existence after the invention of the electronic fencing sword. Because it is not widely known or taught it can be a powerful tool to overcoming an opponent’s defenses. 

The flick occurs when an attacker moves his arm and foil to hit his opponent but just before full extension flicks his wrist making the blade swish. Since the foil is long and slim it has the ability of bend and creating a wrapping action. This fly fishing motion causes the tip to bend allowing it to hit the opponent on the back or shoulder. Such an attack may also work on the front but is most commonly as a way of throwing your opponent out of balance. 

The defense against a flick often includes using a modified sabre quinte (90 degrees from the axis of the body) and a ducking motion. The other method includes a parry 10 which is exercised moving the blade so that it runs just above your shoulder to the point behind the head to deflect the attack. Immediately the fencer should swirl the sword to try and obtain a strike on your opponent to create a fluid defense and attack motion. 

Another method of countering the flick is to close the gap of distance between you and the opponent. When this gap is narrowed the opponent’s tip of the blade will be off target allowing for a possible strike of the opponents body. Such a move comes with a price. Once you are close to your opponent and miss your initial attack there will be a furry of effort in order to strike each other. This madness of motion can be a frenzy of attack and parry that speeds up the game. 

The flick is considered an intermediary move that should be learned after the basics have been mastered. Traditional instructors do not have any particular fondness for the flick as it doesn’t fit within the historical context of fencing. 

In true life it would not likely cause much damage as the point of the blade is more like a touch than a stab. However, it does count in the sport of fencing as the right-of-way is claimed once the arm moves forward and the opponent is forced to parry. It takes practice and the right equipment to do the flick well. Some foil blades have additional flexibility that isn’t found in heavy steel. 

Congressional Luncheon at the San Diego Chamber of Commerce

Business leaders, political socialites, and interested citizens made their way to the San Diego’s Chamber of Conferences Congressional Luncheon. The guest speakers included Congressman Darrell Issa, Congressman Susan Davis, Congressman Duncan Hunter, Congressman Scott Peters and Congressman Juan Vargas. A number of questions were proposed and each congressperson had an opportunity to discuss the topics and their viewpoints. 

The event was held on August 19^th, 2013 in the upscale SD Marriott Marquis & Marina on the downtown harbor front of San Diego. With the luncheon came a chance to socialize and get up to speed on local political news. In addition to the nice meal, participants learned about the issues that impacts not only San Diego but also the nation.  

The Congressional Luncheon was hosted by the San Diego Chamber of Commerce and supported by a number of important sponsors. The Chamber of Commerce prides itself on providing value, free enterprise, collaboration, empowerment, integrity and member services. Their goals are focused on helping local businesses not only improve their access to other business owners but also to improve upon the business atmosphere in the area. 

The San Diego Chamber of Commerce was started in 1870 by Alonzo Horton who had simple goals that included bringing the railroad to San Diego, increasing harbor economic activity, and providing water to local residents. As the San Diego region grew so did the responsibilities. The Chamber outlines their strategic development plans on their web page. You may visit it at http://www.sdchamber.org/

Business owners as well as students who have micro businesses should consider the possibilities of joining the chamber. Learning through interacting with others, understanding their issues, and making business connections is important for the achievement of personal and professional goals. Few things in our great country were developed without the collaborative efforts of many who followed visions based on the desire to influence their environments. The chamber provides a voice to local business owners as well as an outlet to their social needs.

If you desire to learn about the attending Congressman/women you may find their web pages listed below:

http://issa.house.gov/

http://www.house.gov/susandavis/

http://hunter.house.gov/

http://scottpeters.house.gov/

http://vargas.house.gov/

Reducing Errors in Market Projection

Projecting markets can be difficult for executives who want concrete answers to the potential decisions they are about to make. One of the strong signs of leadership is the ability to deal with ambiguous information. This means that decision makers may not have all of the information they need to make appropriate decisions. Each decision leads to the possibility of failure with significant financial costs. The use of statistical methods can be an enhancement to the decision making process through lowering levels of uncertainty. However, statistics alone can cause mistakes and are not substitutes for good judgment. Using multiple statistical analyses to make expensive projection calls can lower decision errors and lead to stronger choices that improve market choices. 

The Delphi Method:

The Delphi Method was developed by Olaf Helmer while at the Rand Corporation. In the method participants answer questions about predictions, products, or services while not being able to interact with each other. Afterward the results are tabulated and then put within a quartile system to supply to experts. The experts provide their opinions based upon new information and those that fall into the outlining quartiles need to justify their answers. Projections often use only expert opinions while product research may use customer opinions.  The answers are then provided back to the original participants who also justify their answers. Each subsequent round creates additional consensus on opinions until there is a cluster around a single (or few opinions) that can be used to project markets.

 

The advantage of the Delphi Method is that larger bodies of experts are likely to be more accurate than decisions made by individuals. As each person continually adjusts their answers through repeated evaluation the entire process becomes more accurate. Eventually there will be a predominant opinion that can be used in evaluation and forecasting market trends. 

Imagine for a moment that you are an executive and you need to make a decision about an expensive investment. However, you are unsure if the environment will be right for this investment to pay off over the next five years. To create more clarity in your thinking you poll a number of experts within the city. They respond but their answers are scattered enough as to make a prediction both risky and unlikely. You analyze the data and ask the outliers (people with widely varying opinions) to justify their positions. As you keep running this process over and over the responses will regress to a more focused answer that can be used to make decisions. 

Cross-Impact Analysis:

The cross-impact analysis uses available data from the past to make predictions about the future. There is an assumption that past events influence future events. Typically a group of experts study correlations between events and present these within a matrix. The matrix then shows the probability from 0-1 of a particular event occurring. 

We can use an example of the probability that gas prices will rise if either of two events occur. The simplified example would not include all of the potential factors that would be included in a true analysis but does highlight how the process works. 

Events:                                    Probability of Event

Given Event                    Event X and Event Y

X:Plant Shuts Down               ----                   .2

Y:Trucker Strike                     .3                     ---

This simplified chart is stating that if a plant shuts down there is a 20% chance gas prices will raise. If there is a trucker union strikes there is a 30% chance that gas prices will raise. The example above would not be considered accurate as there are many more events that can be applied to a potential situation. It is used as an illustration only. An actual analysis of would also include all the potential factors, the chances of certain events occurring, and the potential outcomes when those events do occur. Such an analysis would have factor upon factor all connected together into a long probability string to predict future events.  It is beneficial to put it in a chart or graph form because it can be hard for people to keep these concepts organized in their head. 

The cross-impact analysis was adopted by the government and business community in the early 1970’s. There are various forms of this analysis using different types of formulas and methods of denoting probability. Some models might simply use a negative or positive sign to denote opportunities. Other methods might consider “enhancing” and “detracting” factors to particular events. 

This analysis is based on game theory. As each opponent picks a certain avenue to gain competitive advantage there are resulting probabilities for the next choice of actions. Each action creates more probabilities. The advantage in businesses is that they can both lead their opponent’s choices as well as pick better responses once the opponent has made choices. The end goal is to increase probabilities of success while reducing the probabilities of failure.  “Check mate” occurs when all of your opponent’s next choices result in their loss making the next move nearly useless. Your opponent will either end the game or pick from increasingly bad choices.

In the world of business, organizations attempt to predict potential advantages and detractors in order to create proper strategy. They conduct an environmental analysis to understand all of these potential possibilities and then use a cross-impact analysis to represent and track these strategic choices. The key is to create market advantages that result in higher levels of revenue and market share. The winner is that organization that makes choices that overcome market challenges and has the highest level of sustainable growth. As you can see when the organization wins, employees win, the executive wins, and the shareholders win.

Regression Analysis:

A regression analysis attempts to find the strength of relationships between independent and dependent variables. If there are a number of independent variables it is possible to express a regression analysis in a formula such as the following:

 

The regression analysis is often used for modeling and predicting particular relationships by analyzing how the dependent variable is influenced when one of the independent variables changes. This allows researchers to see if a particular change shows a relationship between two elements. For example, if one of the independent variables is changed and this results in a dependent variable change then we have a level of influence. Moving through each of the independent variables will allow for statistical measurements showing how each factor changes and adjusts the dependent variable. 

It must be remembered that the regression analysis does not prove that one variable causes another variable. It can only show that there is an association between the two variables and that one has an impact on the other. Truly understanding the causal relationship would require the adjustment of inputs that recreate events within a lab or similar type of experimental setting. Some researchers become confused between causation and correlation…even though there is an important distinction.

The regression analysis is a systematic method of understanding that can be used in business to understand influences of varying factors. For example, if a product is purchased more often because it is seen as red and therefore noticed by customers more often an experiment could be conducted to determine how these factors are associated. Perhaps it is the price in addition to the red color? This would require an evaluation of the various factors through the use of a regression analysis. 

The regression analysis first appeared in the literature by Legendre in 1805 as a method of least squares to understand orbits around the sun (Legendre, 1805).  The term “regression” was later used by Francis Galton to understand how tall people appear to regress in preceding generations down to the average of human height. Today the regression analysis is a major statistical method of understanding and analyzing association of factors in research. 

Dalkey, N. & Helmer, O. (1963). An experimental application of the Delphi Method to the use of experts. Management Science, 9 (3). 

Fitzsimmons, J. & Fitzsimmons, M. (2011). Service Management: Operations, Strategy, Information Technology (Seventh Edition). NY: McGraw-Hill. 

Heuer, R. & Pherson, R. (2011). Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis. CQ Press. ISBN :978-1608710188

Legendre, A. (1805). Nouvelles méthodes pour la détermination des orbites des comètes. Firmin Didot, Paris.

Book Review: The Righteous Mind by Jonathan Haidt

The book The Righteous Mind by Jonathan Haidt moves into the psychology of political parties and political persuasion. People naturally accuse the other parties of not thinking clearly and following logic. Each views the other as duped! Yet in his work, he points out that since there are strong logical arguments that follow most parties, these rational choices are based on their intuition. The logic seems to follow as people find justification for their choices. This makes changing one’s ideological views very difficult for many people. 

Jonathan Haidt, University of Virginia social psychologist, believes that people first have intuition and then rational choice. That rational choice is based upon people’s intuition and subject to it. He does not discuss those who can find multiple paths to rationality, understand the various arguments, and find validity in each of these arguments to think critically about ideology. It would require a level of stepping outside oneself without the bias we all hold onto so dearly.

This stands to reason for many people that fall within the middle curve of human perception. It would seem that biological and social self-interest would dictate our behaviors. Yet each of these parties were started by great men who thought outside of conventional standards. Whether we agree with their logic or not it would seem that those who started the philosophies were pioneers who helped people view the world in different ways.  However, as a social psychologist looking at the middle of the bell curve Dr. Glaucon would be correct in his social based analysis of human nature. 

The book appears to be more of a personal self-quest for truth that makes it fun to read. Dr. Glaucon is a supporter of liberalism and searches for knowledge and understanding within his work. From the book, we can also see a leaning to libertarianism as the authors other justifiable approach to politics. It would seem that the author likes the concepts of personal choice and ideologically finds value in the left liberals and the right libertarians. This choice comes from the belief that the rights of individuals supersede governmental needs. Fewer restrictions are better in his perspective.

The book uses ethnography, evolutionary theory and experimental psychology to understand human nature. For the vast majority of people they quickly come to conclusions when asked ethical questions and then move onto justifying their answers using poor logic. It is a rare exception for someone to spend significant time thinking, weighing, and balancing all the possible options and choices. We as a species are subject to quick heuristics and intuitive responses without much scientific or thought to these questions.

He provides explanations of basic value systems that seem to make up the two largest political parties. Republicans focus on faith, patriotism, valor, chastity, law and order while Democrats focus more on caring and fighting oppression. Each is seen as having valid arguments based in the early life experiences provided by family, friends, and social networks. Most people grow up assuming their particular ideologies are correct unless they are forced to question them. This may be one of the reasons why it is difficult to change the way people believe using only logical arguments without a deeper level of appeal.

According to the book, people are becoming more polarized with less of the population in the middle and more people moving to the extremes on either ideological side. Such shifts are considered tribal and group pushes for social network adherence.  At the very lowest level of our personality are a number of factors that include threat sensitivity, novelty seeking, extroversion, and conscientiousness. These traits stay consistent throughout our lifetimes and influences the type of political leanings a person adopts. The traits lead us in particular directions that can be difficult to adjust or change unless the environment provides alternative methods of fulfilling these personality traits in new ways. When the environment encourages us to accept and propagate certain values as truths, many of us will do so without question.

The book is separated into three categories that includes Intuition, a wider understanding of morality, and the blindness of ideology. Each section has approximately four chapters that provide justification for each of the author's beliefs and theoretical points. The book will moves through ideology, beehive mentality, subjective nature of morality, and better ways of disagreeing with each other. It provides for a thorough understanding of human nature within a work of this size.

The book was interesting to me in understanding how people can become ideological staunch in their particular positions and beliefs. This rationality is argued in many ways with each being somewhat more logical than others based upon the depth of their personal analysis. The author himself seems to be leaning toward his own ideological beliefs rooted in his upbringing, education, and environment that becomes apparent in his choice of words. Psychologists may be more liberalism or libertarianism  due to the inherent push and focus on individual development. 

This development should be based in the development of the individual within the social context and needs of society. To me, it would seem that basic value systems proposed by religion, despite those religious ideologies, have a positive ethical benefit for society. Human psychological development is also based in part in religious and philosophical development of the individual. Each is a potential methodology of viewing human nature. Furthermore, law and ethics also has a benefit in encouraging certain behaviors that limit the ability of individuals to damage society or for society to damage individuals unfairly. Most people may agree that religion encourages positive values but people may choose to distort those messages for personal gain.

 Critical thinking requires first to understand the appeal of particular ideological stances before adopting them or countering their premises. Without this critical analysis, we are only accepting what others desire us to believe without evaluating the merits of the claims for ourselves. We must think for ourselves and accept those beliefs for ourselves if we are to own them. To persuade others requires appealing first to their emotions and then to their logic through understanding how they view the world. No matter what our ideological leanings we must ask the question “Is it possible to even have a society if people are stealing, cheating, injuring, failing to work together, being dishonest, having disrespect, or not showing a level of societal loyalty?” If there are no basic values that apply to all members of society then society may someday cease to exist as a collective whole. Yet those values should not purposely castrate individuals who desire to be part of society but have different experiences and perceptions as this would be counterproductive by nature and limit the potential of a nation by segregating people into staunch ideological understandings that damage the potential to grow and work together. First we must understand before we can change. Few things in life are as concrete as we believe them to be. 

As Abraham Lincoln stated in his famous Gettysburg Address, "A house divided against itself cannot stand." Where we see ourselves divided can we also see ourselves together? Does our American culture rest in basic values that apply to all individuals despite our ideological leanings?

Haidt, J. (2012). The Righteous Mind-Why Good People are Divided by Politics and Religion. NY: Vintage Books. ISBN: 978-0-307-45577-2

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