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Book Review: Stats and Curiosities: From Harvard Business Review

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If you ever took a college course on stats you are likely to recall counting ceiling tiles as more exciting. However, stats can provide all types of useful and interesting information that can spark the imagination. Within the book Stats and Curiosities you will learn about the human brain, business behavior, health, gender relations, and the economy. It provides tid bits of knowledge and insight into some of the most common things we do but have no idea were doing them.  Did you know that 19% of high status people believe that others smile at them more? It may not actually be true but how people view themselves has an impact on what they see in the environment. Even more interesting powerful people actually believe they are 6 inches taller.   None of it may be true but it seems to pay psychologically to think yourself high status and powerful. Of course some statistics have large implications for business. Thirty percent of financial professionals feel pressure to either vio

Reducing Errors in Market Projection

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Projecting markets can be difficult for executives who want concrete answers to the potential decisions they are about to make. One of the strong signs of leadership is the ability to deal with ambiguous information. This means that decision makers may not have all of the information they need to make appropriate decisions. Each decision leads to the possibility of failure with significant financial costs. The use of statistical methods can be an enhancement to the decision making process through lowering levels of uncertainty. However, statistics alone can cause mistakes and are not substitutes for good judgment. Using multiple statistical analyses to make expensive projection calls can lower decision errors and lead to stronger choices that improve market choices.   The Delphi Method: The Delphi Method was developed by Olaf Helmer while at the Rand Corporation. In the method participants answer questions about predictions, products, or services while not being able to i