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Showing posts with the label delphi method

Reducing Errors in Market Projection

Projecting markets can be difficult for executives who want concrete answers to the potential decisions they are about to make. One of the strong signs of leadership is the ability to deal with ambiguous information. This means that decision makers may not have all of the information they need to make appropriate decisions. Each decision leads to the possibility of failure with significant financial costs. The use of statistical methods can be an enhancement to the decision making process through lowering levels of uncertainty. However, statistics alone can cause mistakes and are not substitutes for good judgment. Using multiple statistical analyses to make expensive projection calls can lower decision errors and lead to stronger choices that improve market choices.   The Delphi Method: The Delphi Method was developed by Olaf Helmer while at the Rand Corporation. In the method participants answer questions about predictions, products, or services while not being able to i