Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Unprovoked Attack on Elderly Woman: Need New Tactics

We must consider that these behaviors are driven by deep seated psychological distortions and such aggressions won't stop without better policies. Understanding and tracking these behaviors on a local level can make a difference researching behaviors through better reporting and tracking (Track and Solve Strategy).  

IMF Indicates Faster Growth for US and China: Leaving Some Markets Behind

IMF states that US and China will power international growth but some countries will be left behind. Emerging markets may not have the capital to power out of the pandemic. That might leave two large countries growing as emerging markets try and find an escape hatch. We may find new challenges come to true light as countries power back up to a competitive status.

I wonder how some of these changes will impact the supply chain networks of the US and China? 🤔 Companies seek resources and if the two countries (US and China) are creating contracts it will impact the global flow of information and resources. That means there could be some reorientation of supplier networks. 


Sunday, March 28, 2021

Should North American Companies Shorten Their Supply Chains After Suez Canal Blockage?

When problems companies that will be around in the future adapt and adjust. Incidents like the blocking the Suez Canal create risks for companies that rely on those products to keep operations going. We also cannot ignore the geopolitical pressures that are in play from COVID, global warming and US manufacturing reemergence. Conducting an environmental scan can help to determine risks to U.S. companies and why they may want to rebalance their supply chains to include a certain percentage from the U.S./Canada and Mexico. Read Environmental Scan

Statistically every supply chain will have a disruption at some point. Yet this incident perked the ears of the U.S. business community that may want to adjust their supply chain strategies. The ship will likely be dislodged in the coming days but the incident does perk ears in terms of long-term risks of supply chain disruption in the U.S. and abroad. If your company relies on imports and you have a 2-3 week delay 1.) Is there local capacity to fill the gap? 2.) Can your business eat the cost?  

Manufacturers need secure supply chains that could be fostered through more local suppliers. Read what Captain Andrew Kinsey states about supply chain disruptions to manufacturers HERE. Shorter supply chains could also mean opportunities to develop more efficient supply chains by considering the merits of a distribution hub in Delta County Michigan.  You can rea d about the possible economic benefits of developing the Great Lakes manufacturing base through infrastructure enhancements Delta County Export Infrastructure

Friday, March 26, 2021

Colorado Shooter Highlights Mental Health Aspects of Hate Based Violence

Hate and rage comes from a deep dark place where chronic pain and emptiness lead people to act in destructive ways. When horrific things like this happen we often look desperately for some sense of an explanation. Those causes are likely many but at the root seems to stem from the same mental health issues. As our science advances we are likely going to find better ways of dealing with mental health problems and help people before such atrocities occur. 

At the moment we are left with gaps in our understanding on how to handle and manage hate driven violence. It makes no difference what race, religion, ethnic, etc... of the perpetrator as the damage is felt in different communities. An investigation will help determine motive and whether it was a hate based crime and/or something else (...personally I'm seeing this as having another root cause🤷).  

What we do know already is that there were prior mental health issues and a bent towards the use of violence to solve problems. The intent to commit violence is based in the pre-frontal cortex activities. It is possible to stimulate the prefrontal cortex to limit violent tendencies. (HERE). Thus the problem may be psychological and/or biological determinants that can be explored. 

What we may end up seeing is that early intervention is important. Once someone is in contact with the criminal justice system we need the mechanisms to assess mental health issues and find referrals out to people who can help them. Perhaps we can avoid future violence through proper coding, research and intervention. You can see an idea I thought of for Michigan....Counseling and Coding Hate Crimes

Wednesday, March 24, 2021

Border Crisis Problem? Maybe Our Foreign Policy Should be Directed More Toward Orphans.

Children are piling up on the boarder and we need to decide how to handle the crisis. We will want to be empathetic to these children and their plight in a way that maintains the natural boundaries between two countries. Finding a solution might be difficult because each option has hits own pitfalls. However, we might want to explore helping the children in Mexico through the use of orphanages and child centered foreign policy initiatives. 

Within 60 miles of the U.S.-Mexico border are numerous orphanages that would appreciate additional financial, academic and medical support (Even better if corporations sponsored some of the needs. Escanaba Polo Mallet Company donates some of its start up profits to help these orphans.). We may consider funding these orphanages and expanding their capacities to help children abandoned with the goal of reuniting with parents. Such children will have access to education and healthcare from caring staff instead of a chain link fence and border guard. 

Of course there would need to be some initiative in registering this children for tracking purposes and ensuring parents know where/who to contact to have someone to search the database for their children. Reuniting them with their families and supporting them through foreign policies that improve upon the U.S. brand and further our global initiatives is important (...not to mention developing business partnerships with Mexico that bring supply chains back from Asia and help these orphans with future jobs. I once thought of an idea to bring U.S. companies to help sponsor primary and online college education of orphanages to groom them to be managers for U.S. companies in Mexico.🤔)

I'm not saying it is the only solution, but that is is one option we can explore for its legal, ethic, and moral dynamics. As a nation we may want to focus our attention and efforts more on children then other non-essential desires of foreign aid recipients. The money goes a long way in helping these children and build good will initiatives that warm relationships in a way that is mutually beneficial for both countries.

Many of these orphanages are self-funded through private donations and are always looking for more help. While the ones I have visited do an excellent job with minimal resources they are almost always stretched thin. Funded through private donations, they are at the fluctuations of good will versus having a stable funding source. One U.S. Nonprofit that helps Mexican orphanages is.....

Corozon de Vida at https://www.corazondevida.org/

We can't say whether government will come up with a solution soon but we do know we will need to do something. It would make sense to invest in Mexico's orphanages for spill over benefits. Lots of children will be separated from their parents and helping Mexico handle this crisis is important. Just a sliver of our budget might make a big difference in the lives of these kids ($$ Stats by Country)

Tuesday, March 23, 2021

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell Testify Before House Financial Services Committee

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testify before the House Financial Services Committee. You can read her statement HERE. Notice she said the Treasury is tasked with increasing small business and entrepreneurship. Helping micro-businesses and entrepreneurs in rural communities. 😊

Friday, March 19, 2021

UN Secretary-General Encourages Nations to Take Extremism Seriously

The United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres discusses the danger of growing extremism. He also discusses how these groups are becoming more internationally connected and a bigger threat to countries. We are just sort of becoming aware of these dangers in the U.S. A very good article that outlines what is occurring and why the international community is concerned. We are still struggling with how serious we want to take these issues and we find that some groups are getting free passes only because we don't have the mental framework to see the motives behind many crimes. HERE

Thursday, March 18, 2021

U.S. and China Begin Diplomatic Talks

 U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan begin talks with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Yang Jiechi. Discussions range in topics but what is of particular interest is how cyber related espionage has become an important part of international affairs. Such behaviors go against good conscious and the spirit of free trade. All societies, even the global one, should have some rules that all countries agree with in terms of appropriate business affairs. Human rights was raised as an essential issue for both countries. We know there are lots of different dark spots in history from many different countries and these are a shame to our species. Its where people go from here that will make the biggest differences in our line of societal development.

US. Weekly Jobless Claim 770000 WK Ending March 13th, 21

Unemployment claims not looking rosy for week ending March 13th, 2021. You may read the Department of Labors March 18th press release HERE. Following trends is often more telling than a single week. Sometimes there are natural fluctuations in the market that are going to impact employment. One should used a wider lens when making educated market guesses. 

Start-Up and Incumbent Firms in Industry Innovation (Delta County Theoretical Model)

The world is in constant change as the free hand pushes the market in directions of its choice. Nations that can perceive these changes can better align their efforts to wiggle themselves into a stronger competitive position.  Understanding emerging economic systems rests on applying explanatory theory as new phenomenon unfold in real time. Transactional clusters theories offer opportunities to understand how ground level innovation occurs and how new knowledge influences local economic success. Delta County (DC) Michigan holds in its possession underutilized shipping infrastructure and a small business community that can benefit by implementing stronger pro-investor policies.

Start-Ups and Incumbent Firms Impact Economic Growth:

Start-ups are innovative by their very nature and attract the appetites of larger incumbent firms that devour innovations to develop novel products/services. Attracting new business to Delta County and juicing these businesses with investment capital can make a big difference in the quality of economic and social life for local residents.

Aligning local businesses to the needs of the global market generates new opportunities that move beyond the smokestacks of the Industrial Age and into wireless technologies of the Information Age. Local (and national) governments don't need shoot blindly into the whirlwind of change to find safe harbor in the Digital Economy. They must instead understand the fundamental key components of new economic realities.

Delta County's digitization could very well come through industries such as global logistics/shipping, engineering, small batch manufacturing (specialized military, space, and outdoor equipment), international tourism of localized products (micro-manufacturing of outdoor sports equipment) and the thrill of activities (waterfront, trails, hunting, fishing, diving, etc...).

Underutilized Strengths of Delta County:

Delta County Michigan is a tree covered semi-isolated county nestled on the water's edged of the Great Lakes with dormant assets that haven't been seriously explored since America began its outsourcing fantasies in the 70s.  As the nation pushes to bring U.S manufacturing back, Delta County sits as a strong contender for shipping infrastructure/distribution investments, and small batch manufacturing/assembly production. Matched with its trade oriented Bay De Noc Community College and other colleges  in the area (Houghton Tech and NMU) it could ferment U.S.  Human Capital Stock within those cluster competencies (Industry-University Competencies).

The sizable military and space industry investments in the Upper Peninsula could further influence new exploration of small batch production, shipment of equipment/supplies, and regional exportation in a way that could transform this area(See shipping review Delta County MI.). Delta County can be the "Dubai on the Great Lakes" if it can attract global firms with advanced business intelligence to test out and develop ground breaking products (Our nation will begin to change quickly once new digital, shipping and manufacturing infrastructure kicks in).

What are Transactional Clusters?

Transactional clusters is an emerging line of economic thinking based on the micro-transactions (that can be measured quantitatively) that are inherent in every day business activity such as making a purchase or sending an email. When you add these transactions up across a cluster you can determine essential factors that create innovation and growth. Research on how to develop innovation at the microcosm level has taken center stage as the United States seeks to revamp lost manufacturing capacity.

Transactional clusters develop collaborative/competitive environments organically based on the way in which people, resources, and industry interact to spur economic growth (i.e. Detroit and automotive or San Diego pharmaceuticals). With research we can recreate the innovation of clusters through focused infrastructure and business investments guided by the wisdom of good government policy.

Once sparked, clusters align to global needs, innovate quickly in their effort to "beat" the market. Such environments, “involves people working together to solve problems and accomplish work in ways that are synergistic – where more is accomplished than organization members could achieve separately and additively” (Shipper et al., 2013, p. 100).

How Start-Up and Incumbent Firms Create Innovation

Innovation is uniqueness in solution while business is the practical application of that solution. Start-ups are launched by entrepreneurs that have a new and useful innovations they want to sell on the market for profit. They invest their intellectual capital and often personal resources to launch a product but all too often find themselves in need of capital infusion as credit lines become stretched thin.

Connecting corporate investors with nimble new companies developing high prospect products/services spurs research & development (Importance of University Research and U.S. & China Patents) that often leads to innovation. Larger firms crave these start-ups to keep their own products and company at the leading edge of industrial development. They are willing to invest their resources into these resource start-ups in order to gain new technologies/products that help them achieve top market positions. 

Start-Up Firms:

Scientists from TU Darmstadt University analyzed factors that influenced successful collaboration between incumbent and start-ups to create technological advancements. They analyzed key factors between the two entities to gain greater awareness of why and how they collaborate (Islam, Buxmann, & Ding, 2017).  

The study method includes:

    • Semi-structure interview of 30 experts from incumbent firms (Group IF) and digital innovation start-ups (Group SU).
    • Start-ups were characterized by beginning-introduction stages and incumbent firms were characterized by maturity in the life-cycle stages.  
    •  Individual statements were coded into factors and in turn placed in categories for analysis.

The Factors (F1, F2, etc..) found from the interviews:

      • 12 for incumbent firms and 8 for start-ups
      • Two major categories "Intention to Collaborate" and "Actual Collaboration Behavior"
      • + Positive Influence - Negative Influence
      • F= factor

How Finding Factors Helps Create Innovation?

When researchers break down oral information obtained by interviewing executives working in start-up and incumbent firms, they develop a coded framework for further analysis. The real life experiences, intentions, and behaviors of these executives are important when we consider the human elements of how and why some partnerships succeed and some never happen! All economic systems rest on human decision making and behavior and thus the real lived experiences of professionals are testimony to internal cluster dynamics.

What we are likely to find if we repeated a similar study across a wide range of clusters (i.e. large survey) is that each cluster has their own unique factor (i.e. markers) that pertain specifically to that type of industry (Side note: With a strong cluster evaluation model we could assess for markers/factors that denote specific cluster competencies 👀). If we understand what factors/markers denote successful partnerships in those clusters we can better prepare start-ups for investment interest and increased growth prospects (Measurable Strategies).

How Does this Research Apply to Delta County?

Delta County Michigan is a place that retains significant underutilized value in small batch manufacturing, distribution/shipping, and tourism. When located in the same vicinity (virtual and/or physical) the development of one industry cluster can influence the innovative product/service development line of another cluster through shared resources and capital.  Multi-cluster knowledge accumulation can sometimes lead to whole new yet to be imagined industries as new discoveries in one area are quickly adapted to other industries within connected clusters. While the theory I'm working on is an adaptive transactional theory, its specific elements have support in prior scientific research. You can read the unfinished version HERE.

A Line of Thinking

Creating theories comes from the necessity of understanding the world in which we live through accurate assessment of available information (data). It might start from a hypothesis, or question, but ultimately must find logical support through utilizing the scientific method. One way to create a strong theoretical background is to review the research and the evidence other's have collected through their own analytical assessments (nanos gigantium humeris insidentes.). The more times something is experienced and tested, the more valid a theory becomes. In this case, the theoretical development borrows from other's research and in turn seeks to connect those concepts into something that may be useful for government decision making. 

In any great problem we must fist recognize pattern distortion and then a need to overcome the chaos (Economic Theory of Chaos) through specific actions (COVID Change). The earlier we can do this, and the more accurate our market projections, the more likely we can successfully navigate market disruption. Leaders should learn to use evidence based decision making (Social Constructionist Learning) to more accurately navigate complex environmental changes that can't be easily explained by pre-existing ideological beliefs (I-Conomics); drawing upon our socialized processes to spark new behavior patterns (Me-Conomics); and, in turn development new economic systems through collaboration (We-Conomics/In process).

A few articles to help explain the general concepts (not all). Theory development requires 100's of supportive documents (literature search) to justify the premises that lead to more complex knowledge creation.

1. Attract entrepreneurs to DC. (DC Neuroeconomics and Escanaba/Gladstone Downtown )

2. Find a strategy to attract international investment/companies to "break out" products (i.e. incumbent and start-up). (Venture Collaboration and ROI Pure Michigan and Available Investor Information and DC Virtual Communities) and Export Creative Destruction and Information Venture Validation.)

3. Seek to build viable clusters based on assets of the area (i.e. rail, deep sea port, skilled labor, tourism, skilled trades etc... (Digital Nomads Land and Human Capital Stock and Human Capital FDI and Technology Skill and Venture Cap. Environ. and Tourism Micro-Manufacturing and Global Supply Chains).

4. Ensure cluster behavior ties into and is enhanced by other cluster activities (i.e. create cluster flow that produces market solutions). (Transactional Subfactors and The Working Cluster and Digital GDP and Probability of Firm Linkage

5. Utilize innovation and collaboration among existing clusters to launch new technologies and industries (i.e. entrepreneurs, articulating market problems, etc...). Multi-Cluster New Innovation and and Global Perspective and Enhancing Manufacturing.

6. Adjust government and business behaviors to develop a sustainable economic system that invests in infrastructure and encourages further business investment in a way that creates "net positives" and reduces local (i.e. national) debt. (Sustainable Systems Marketing, Interactive Value Cities, DC Great Lakes Shipping Infrastructure, and Perpetual Economic Systems

7. Create competitive model that can be used as part of a larger strategy for prime investment locations in Michigan, region, and/or nation. Game Theory U.S. and Economic Platforms (Information Age) and U.S-China Econ Platforms and Regional Development and Economic Societal Development and Cultural Advantages and Advanced Industries  and International Marketing Dev. and Global Managers and China Manufacturing and Digital GDP Govt. and Bounded Rationality and Cluster Human Rights and Haiku Eagle Eggs.

Islam, Nihal; Buxmann, Peter; and Ding, David, (2017). "Fostering Digital Innovation Through Inter-Organizational Collaboration Between Incumbent Firms and Start-Ups. In Proceedings of the 25th European Conference on Information Systems (ECIS), Guimarães, Portugal, June 5-10, 2017 (pp. 1029-1043). ISBN 978-989-20-7655-3 Research Papers. https://aisel.aisnet.org/ecis2017_rp/67

Shipper, F., C. C. Manz, K. P. Manz and B. W. Harris (2013). Collaboration that goes beyond co-operation: it’s not just “if” but “how” sharing occurs that makes the difference. Organizational Dynamics, 42 (2), 100-109. 

Tuesday, March 9, 2021

Ensuring We Don't Give a "Free Pass" to Hate Crimes in Michigan

The Justice System is imperfect, made up of imperfect people, that live in an imperfect world and make imperfect decisions. Sometimes decisions make sense and sometimes it looses its logic completely. Feedback loops to the Justice System is helpful to create stronger systems that reflect the needs of people. Feedback is not so much a criticism as an opportunity for improvement. 

Building trust means always acting with a level of integrity in a way that leads to the best outcomes for all parties involved. The authority is thus bound to a moral value system that enhances the functioning of a wider community.

Because of the limited resources (financial and human) there are choices as to what cases to investigate and which ones to not expend resources. Those choices may be practical in nature but should not be based in racial, religious, or political affiliations. 

What we want to avoid is people engaging in criminal behavior with the belief that certain groups will receive preferential treatment based on norms that violate central Constitutional values. Assuming that the Constitution is central to our American values it should act as a guide to direction.

"A free pass" prompts people to believe that hate based crimes in society are an acceptable outlets for personal problems and mental health issues. 

Cases with the most horrific behaviors are pursued while those of smaller consequence fall off the edge of the desk.  Most of the hate crime behavior is on the smaller level but can have significant impact over time.

Sometimes not pursuing a cases is based on the practicality of obtaining a prosecution but sometimes it is because of similarity and culture. Its something that is part of human nature and without recognizing this bias in ourselves to prefer people similar to ourselves we are unable to fairly offer justice.

When behavior is intentionally designed to target minorities and radicalize followers I don't believe it is wise to not hold perpetrators accountable. While jail time isn't necessary in all cases, "accountability" is a must. Without accountability we can expect such behaviors to be repeated when the "coast is clear". 

Our state, our nation, and its legal institutions have a responsibility to be adaptive by nature. Failure to changes our thoughts, feeling, and hearts when our future rests on coming to awareness about creating systems that supports human development.  Stopping the "free pass" for hate based behaviors means designing a system that codes behavior accurately for analysis and solution. Without change we will experience this problem over and over in an environment that welcomes it.  

Opportunities for Hate Crime Reform Michigan-Better Coding and Better Solutions

FBI director testifies on Capitol Riots: Opportunities for National Improvement in Thwarting Future Extremism

“If the misery of the poor be caused not by the laws of nature, but by our institutions, great is our sin.”
― Charles Darwin, Voyage of the Beagle

Monday, March 8, 2021

Don't be Scammed by Vaccines: Michigan AG Warns

There is a right way and a wrong way to conduct business. Making money should be done in a legitimate fashion with a real product that has meaningful value for consumers. When people feel they are purchasing one product but receive something they feel cheated! All business and commerce is based on trust and when people defraud consumers they damage that trust. Countries with large black markets often have the lowest growth rates and the most corruption.  

"Connecting" the U.P. to the Global Economy: Let's Plug in Opportunities for Tourism and Manufacturing

Communities in the U.P. are often not connected as well as they should be which in turn limits their ability to navigate the new Digital Economy. From an economic standpoint places like Delta County offer have underexplored opportunities for tourism and small batch advanced manufacturing. It also carries potential as a distribution/assembly hub and the short term rental market for Digital Nomads. 

Well....maybe....assuming we can find the wall plug!🤯

Connecting U.P communities with the wider global world helps to encourage stronger opportunities to develop and attract global interest on social, recreational, and investment (i.e. economic manufacturing opportunities in Delta County) potential.

The following was taken from an email press release. 

March 8, 2021
James Hogge 231-944-7633
Bergman Introduces Rural Broadband Window of Opportunity Act
Washington - Today, Rep. Jack Bergman introduced the Rural Broadband Window of Opportunity Act to level the playing field for broadband expansion in Northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula. Specifically, the bill would require the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to prioritize the processing of broadband expansion applications located in areas with shorter build seasons.

Over the coming months, the FCC will be reviewing applications and other relevant documents submitted by service providers who are seeking to receive federal funding for broadband infrastructure buildouts through the $9.2 billion Rural Digital Opportunity Fund Phase I (RDOF). (Read more about RDOF here).  Communities in Michigan’s First District are slated to receive a large portion of these funds, which will be implemented by service providers over the next 10 years.

However, it is important for these service providers to begin building out their networks as soon as possible to not only meet their program obligations but simply to get unserved and underserved communities connected as soon as possible.  For this reason, the Rural Broadband Window of Opportunity Act would ensure the applications for buildouts in areas with limited construction seasons, such as due to long and snowy winters, are processed faster than others. Any bureaucratic delays would have greater negative consequences in Northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula than in areas with more temperate climates.

“I’m proud to introduce the Rural Broadband Window of Opportunity Act because it is common sense that the FCC should process RDOF applications faster for Michigan projects where a dark and snowy winter is always around the corner, as opposed to projects in less seasonal statesWe need to get shovels in the dirt as soon as possible – especially considering the increased need for telehealth and remote working during the pandemic. This simple change would level the playing field for the service providers who have put skin in the game to connect the many households and businesses in Michigan living on the wrong side of the digital divide," said Rep Bergman.


Sunday, March 7, 2021

Latest State Sponsored Microsoft 30K Hack Raises Need for New Data Infrastructure

 A recent hack, by what is believed to be a state sponsored entity, sought to gain access to business information on 30,000 businesses. That is a huge hack with massive amounts of sensitive information being passed covertly from email servers to state actors. 

The U.S. is always going to play catch up until business and government stakeholders decide to bump the infrastructure to the next platform which moves us further into the Information Age and adaptation of  businesses into the Digital Economy.  

Saturday, March 6, 2021

The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (HR1319) Passed by the Senate March 6th 2021

Remarks by President Biden as Senate passes the $1.9 trillion Covid relief plan by a 50-49 vote. You can read the bill HERE. You might have an easier time searching for things your interested. There is a lot of different kinds of things that include functional aspects like updating our data infrastructure to "good will" items such as helping people keep their apartments/homes. 

American Relief Plan Passes Senate 03-06-2021 

"The Meeting" Between the Pope and Shia Cleric-5 Letter Word Uttered!

We don't often think that religious leaders like Pope Francis and Shia Muslim cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani have much to do with business success. To the influence of religious leadership it important to understand that such figures are opinion makers that give direction to large swaths "of the faithful". What they say matters in terms of peace and commerce.

History is full of examples where religion was the chisel that created societies (and destroyed some). While religion is pure, people are not always; and some have distorted religious imagery for political gain. "The Meeting" Between the Pope and Shia Cleric sends a prime message of "Peace/Salam" to followers. 

Peace is essential for sustainable economies built off of trade and the free exchange of ideas. Commerce and trade rest on the ease of movement and collective learning that leads to long term innovation (actually peace and overcoming challenge). War not only destroys lives, but also completely disrupts business activity. Religious leaders should consistently pick the path of peace for the health and prosperity of their people.

When media displays images of different religious leaders working together to promote peace they help others grasp the possibility that peace on earth is possible. "The Meeting" acts as a primer for how people of different religions should act toward each other to bring about a world where needless pain and suffering are minimized.

Religion is such a touchy topic with zealots (in each religion) that fail to understand the greater purpose of having these belief systems in the first place. Radicalism (of any religious group) short circuits a greater awareness of the commonalities among peoples of seeming different backgrounds.

I have experience with Catholicism and Islam and find the commonality among different religions. Where we choose to place our emphasis is all up to our personal belief systems and the social environment in which we live. To think for yourself is a difficult thing to obtain; but is a prize worth pursuing. 

February 2021 Unemployment: Leisure and Hospitality Pick Up

What you want to see in any recovering economy is people returning back to work. It will help people keep food on the table and pay their bills. February 2021 Unemployment Rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics stands at 6.2% as the economy added 379K jobs. Because the leisure and hospitality industry has been hit hard it is a positive sign they are going back to work. 

Delta County Michigan also has a leisure & hospitality industry that rests in part on locals and on tourism. Bars and restaurants are now opening and that will make a big difference in the County. You can see some statistics on Delta County at Data USA. Somewhere around 40% (Very generic non-hard number) of the employment would be impacted by re-opening. 

Current Rates:

  • adult men (6.0 percent),
  • adult women (5.9 percent),
  • teenagers (13.9 percent),
  • Whites (5.6 percent),
  • Blacks (9.9 percent),
  • and Hispanics (8.5 percent)
You can still see some of the disparities between different members of society. Some of this is based on the nature of work and demographics. Some of this is based in discrimination and lack of inclusiveness. Separating the two is difficult but not impossible. 

Leisure and Hospitality Returning Workers:

  • Leisure and hospitality increased by 355,000

January 21 Unemployment Rate Bureau of Labor Statistics by Dr. Murad Abel on Scribd

Friday, March 5, 2021

China Economy Poised to Grow Over 6% in 2021

China's economy is expected to grow over 6% this year. Some believe this number could even be much more such as 7 or 8%. 

While emerging nations can realize these gains, some of their growth will depend on the strategies the U.S. enacts. 

 For example, if less Chinese goods are making their way to American ports this won't bode well for Chinese manufacturers. 

Assuming no major challenges or disruptions those numbers are possible if market conditions swing in their direction. 

Walmart to Invest $350 Billion into American Manufacturing

Walmart craves to be part of the American manufacturing revolution. John Furner, President and CEO, Walmart plans to invest $350 billion in products made, grown and/or assembled in the United States. The initiative occurs over 10 year period, and projected to create approximately 750,000 jobs. That change might boast local manufacturing and in turn prompt other big box retailers to push their supply lines to manufacture nationally. If you are a U.S. based small manufacturer you will want to take note of emerging opportunities to create a stronger position.

What Will be Produced?

Investments hopes to encourage production for things like textiles, plastics, small electrical appliances, food processing, and pharmaceutical and medical supplies. Much of the effort will be focused on products that were traditionally produced in China but will now be pushed to produce in the United States. 

Environmental Advantages?

Fostering closer supply chains while keeping an an eye out for for reducing innovation and pollution. The company could save 100 million metric tons of CO2 emissions. The best time to to turn businesses green are either during a major transition and/or when they are first launched. 

What To Do If Your a Supplier?

They expect to encourage around 9,000 entrepreneurs to be part of the capacity building effort. If you have a "shelf ready" product then you can pitch for consideration to be included in Walmart's line up.  For many small manufacturers having a large big box retailer like Walmart pick up your product is a boon. You will have to read more about it HERE (I wonder if they would be interested Escanaba Polo Mallet Co mallets and/or brand? 🤔).

What is the American Lighthouse?

Without coordinating across local and regional manufacturing stakeholders it will be difficult to overcome capacity building challenges. "The Lighthouses will bring together participants from the supplier community, including manufacturers and NGOs, leaders from academia, government and local economic development groups.(Edelson, 2021, para. 9).

What is the Strategy?

The company expects major changes in the market as a result of increased competition with China. It also sees that investment in these supply chains would be helpful to managing them better. The focus of the investment money will be on market demand products that give Walmart more control over its suppliers. 

Earlier this year President Biden signed a Made in American Executive Order that seeks to preference American companies in the $600 billion Federal spending. $600 billion + $350 billion is a lot of money. Now with with luck 🙏 add in a few other "big box" retailers (i.e. Meijer's and Costco) as well as a few automotive suppliers (i.e. Ford and Chrysler) and a couple of other industries and you might just create a manufacturing stimulus never seen before! (I actually wonder if that would work?❓︖𞥟 A manufacturing push that large could reorient global supply chains as companies move headquarters, invest local, start new businesses and create innovative products that China might have difficulty copying for a long time. A $5trillion stimulus launched by industry? 👀😲🤔🤷). 

(I'm working on a transactional cluster theory that I think could be used as a foundational basis for local  and nation industry (and new unseen industry) development).

Edelson, S. (March 3rd, 2021, para. 9). Walmart Gets Behind U.S. Manufacturing With 10-Year, $350 Billion Investment. Forbes. Retrieved 03-05-21 https://www.forbes.com/sites/sharonedelson/2021/03/03/...

Thursday, March 4, 2021

Watch Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell @ Wall Street Journal Jobs Summit

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell discussed the inching upwards of bond rates and how they impact borrowing costs for everyday business transactions. He hopes that inflation stays under 2% and indicates that the Fed has the ability to manage that rate properly. No one should expect that interest rates should stay the same forever (You might consider running out and pay off your credit cards!) so volatile markets should be short lived. Market nymphs dance as investors grip their coffee cups thinking about inflation and adjust their portfolios to prepare for the show. 

1. The 10-year US government bond yield was up 0.07% to 1.54%

2. The Dow (INDU) finished down 1.1% and the S&P 500 (SPX) closed 1.3% lower.

Unemployment should decline as the economy opens and recovers. While its not being said specifically in this video, we should consider how pro investment and manufacturing policies could have a big impact on labor hiring. Changes in manufacturing ripple the labor market as workers are retrained/tooled to compete in emerging digital economy jobs (While this might seem like a medium and long term strategy, planted seeds could bud quickly with the right manure⚘/clusters🙆.)

A lot is going on in the market right now so I scratch my head a little thinking about application. I have two questions as they would impact a theoretical concept called perpetual sustainable development:

1.) As nations seek to reopen and begin to loosen up restrictions on travel, trade, and government projects is it possible for the U.S. to be the main provider for a flux demand for supplies, equipment and digital expertise? 

2.) Could proactively sending governments /businesses a coordinated list (searchable web directory of U.S. manufacturers/suppliers) of American products/services make an impact on speeding up U.S. manufacturing recovery/development? (That assumes they are going to increase spending and B2B activities.)

These are just two unvetted ideas that don't take into account the ability, time, and desire to create an American/U.S. manufacturing/supplier list and/or have the mechanisms in place to coordinate massive marketing efforts (Working on a bigger theory on Transactional Clusters HERE). If government isn't interested in such concepts perhaps industry might want to consider their own. Switching international business consumers immediate word association from China-Manufacturing to American-Manufacturing is going to take a little more coordinated effort among stakeholders.

Restoring Trust in Police Through Removing "Bad Apples" and Adopting "Universal Justice" Principles

"Troubled" officers create difficult to overcome obstacles when developing a unified vision for the country. Accountability among bad actors isn't something we can take lightly as it is a primary trust issue that reverberates throughout our society. Whether we are talking about capital riots or anarchists taking to the streets, our very fabric of society requires maximum trust in our institutions and their ability to hold the Constitution and Universal Justice in high regard.

 Great officers are remembered for their helpfulness, politeness and their use of wisdom when enforcing the law or coaching others to act appropriately. They are honored members of our communities and are those that create bridges among people and enhance trust in the system. On the opposite end of the spectrum officers that violate basic norms of society and engage in criminal misconduct without accountability quickly erode that trust.

Law enforcement has been politicized by both sides of the political spectrum. Right and wrong are seen through a partisan lens that limits the ability of people to think about the bigger picture of how law enforcement should and could function within our state and our country. Simply stumbling along the same path with our eyes closed and our ears covered no long works for the vast majority of Americans🙈🙉🙊. 

Building trust rests on acting trustworthy and with integrity so as to encourage interaction.  If someone is trusted it is because they have exhibited consistent good judgment and sound morality (i.e. not abusing, lying, misleading, harassing, etc...). When trust is broke it doesn't just impact impact that specific interaction but also the perceptions of community (i.e. branding of the system as ineffective and unjust).

Sometimes an example might help formalize a "bad apple's" behavior.  An officer has been rumored to engaged in all types of dishonest and destructive behaviors. These include things like 1. targeting and intimidating minorities, 2. groping young ladies on arrest, 3. alleged raping of a drunk underage girl, 4. illegal investigations based on self-interest, 5. corruption and 6. false witnesses on the stand, 7. associated with hate group members, 8.) encouraging White radicalism, etc...

Remember: These are only accusations and rumors at the moment. They are not necessarily true!  

Anyone can throw an accusation but not everyone can support it; nor should victims be required to do the work that should be done by a trustworthy system. It is up to the internal mechanisms to take this information and investigate these claims to ensure there is no substantive nature to them (in an unbiased manner). The information provided by a fair and impartial review would determine what the next course of action should be (terminate employment, prosecute, etc...)

Important Point: An unbiased investigation is what makes it possible to determine truth from falsehood and know where the grey areas exist.

If these complaints are shared from multiple sources (i.e. raising validity) it is important to consider the possibility that such rumors may (and often do) have a kernel of truth to them. Rumors have power and investigating when issues arise helps to determine the risk factors involved. Not knowing these also means there is a high potential that that the problem could arise again, again, and again causing more damage (Who becomes liable for intentional ignoring "bad apple" behavior". 

Important Choice: Multiple sources could be an indication of widespread behavior or purposeful misinformation. It is important enough for entities with integrity to launch an investigation.

What you don't want is consistent inconsistency in the application of law (i.e. systematic injustice). This occurs when there are systemic problems that have been ignored because they are embedded into the culture of enforcement. Each problem is seen from the same cultural, religious, and/or racial vantage points (i.e. a biased perception of what an "American" looks like) which skews all decision making throughout the entire system (i.e. the need for diversity in law enforcement). 

Important Point: Consistent inconsistency in the application of law leads to systemic injustice.

If you spend some time in different groups of people and listen to their stories you can hear how many distrust the Justice System (Its only an observation). You will hear the same themes over and over throughout different people in different communities (i.e. why BLM appealed to multiple communities). They don't feel as though the justice system is concerned with their needs and applied fairly. They may respect law enforcement but don't believe at the end of the day their lives, concerns, and needs are respected (i.e. lowering the value of life).

Gallop Poll, 2020

Important Point: Lack of faith in the application of law/policing seems to be a common theme for a simple majority of 52% (Brenan, 2020). 

What you will also notice from this poll is that confidence of policing rose by Republicans to 82% while it dropped by Democrats to 28%. Of course that was prior to the capital riots so it is possible these percentages have changed. There is a risk that policing is increasingly being seen as helpful to a particular cause, race, or political need and that could be very dangerous for future institutional trust that could lead to more violence and protests (Notice from that Poll that the Military 72% and Small Business 75% are trusted by Americans 👀). 

Important Point: Politicizing policing as pro or anti certain groups could lead to more violent riots in the future. 

Failure of leadership means a failure on the ground. Poor policies on the leadership level often means poor results on the ground as values, beliefs, and methods are shared among connected entities. Enhancing trust in communities relies in part on the development of a national leadership structure that moves beyond partisan politics and into a more bi-partisan image of our future (i.e. same poll indicates people trust Congress 6% Great Deal and 7% Quite Along leaving 83% in the Some and Very Little categories.😱)

Important Point: As partisan and racial/ethnic/religious differences in justice occur (lack of Universal Justice) we will find increase in faction as the justice system becomes an extension of political distrust.  

What we often find is that there are two sets of laws at work. Those who engage coordinated ethnic/racial/religious based hate crimes are also often involved in other entitlement behaviors. While the law may be written the same it isn't applied the same. One might "turn a blind eye" to the law for some and maximize punishments for others thereby inadvertently tuning others into what will and what won't be enforced.

Important Point: As a nation, if we are going to get serious about our constitution, our national purpose, thwart extremism, and be an economic beacon of equality then we will need to think about "universal justice" where application is the same. 

Social Contracts: The US has the Bill of Rights and the UN has the Universal Declaration of Human Rights that stand as social contracts by which people willingly agree that as long as these are upheld they will work within the current geopolitical system. While these documents are well known among the international community and the political class, local law enforcement doesn't have sufficient training to understand how that functions in everyday life (Long term social stability requires us to hold these social contracts in high regard). 

Possible Solutions: Spreading the American brand of economic opportunity and universal rights starts right at our doorstep. Universalizing justice restores trust, reduces societal factions, and increases economic engagement. That may require new leadership in our communities and nation as what we know to be right is sidelined by political persuasion and past poor policy.  Our international influence rests on how we handle these issues here. 

Transparency and Public Review: Creating transparency in the Information Age will rest on reporting information to the public as a feedback loop and as an opportunity for outside review and analysis. As more data/information is available for public consumption, it ensures transparency to individuals/groups, researchers, government and international stakeholders. The ability to have confidence that current institutions are meeting the needs of people means providing the information that leads to effective metrics and feedback loops. 

Side note: This is being written as not for or against policing as the institution is necessary to protect life and liberty. I know great officers and I know people abused by poor officers. What I can say is that I hope we solve this problem so that our nation can fulfill its destiny and lead other countries into a new era of economic and social prosperity. Its time for the silent center and bi-partisanship to be our vanguard forward.

Brenan, M. (August 12, 2020). Amid Pandemic, Confidence in Key U.S. Institutions Surges. Gallop https://news.gallup.com/poll/317135/amid-pandemic-confidence-key-institutions-surges.aspx

Wednesday, March 3, 2021

Michigan Legislature Passes $4.2B in Virus Aid

1Q 2021 United States Expects Possible 10%+GDP Growth

The U.S. Economy is poised to grow at a whopping +10% GDP in the beginning of 2021 according to Atlanta Federal Reserve calculations. That is great news for those who believe the economy is ready to roar back to life once the doors open. This year is expected to be a great year as companies begin to open up to the public, adapt to the the Information Age (Digital Economy) and manufacturing/investment starts to gain momentum. 

The calculation is derived from a running total called GDP Now that is managed by the Center of Quantitative Economic Research. Here is some information provided on who they are and the calculations they complete.... 

"The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the
estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. (GDP Now, 2021)

Raw calculations are important because hey state what is happening in the present without being filtered through hindsight. That "now" means that unless something big happens (i.e. illness, natural disaster, etc...) we will have an excellent start to the year. Their projections are....

A calculation I did in early 2020
on the impact of COVID

"The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 10.0 percent on March 1, up from 8.8 percent on February 26. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and first-quarter real government spending growth increased from 7.7 percent, 17.7 percent, and 6.9 percent, respectively, to 8.8 percent, 18.7 percent, and 9.1 percent, respectively."

What I'm hoping for is to be as close to my initial projections as possible to ensure modeling is still accurate. It was a little off on the end of the 2020 year but was off by -3.5%; likely because of resurgence😖. However, it was also expect that in 2021 GDP would rise and in turn bump again in 23/24 as corporations long-term strategies are fully implemented. 

0% GDP Growth by end of 2020.

GDP Contracts 1st Q of 2020-Is It a Short Lived Shock and Digital GDP Recovery? (April 30, 2020).

Theory of Transactional Clusters. Ongoing research since 2012

Bond Market Bubble? Former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley Chimes In!

Bond markets are heating up and are likely to push up costs of other borrowing. If we need to press on the gas to push the economy to recover and then pull back we should expect higher bond yields 3-4% for perhaps 10 years. As economies rise the interest rates rise and the cost of borrowing increased. Bonds are often the fundamental source of inter-government lending and determine other costs in society and your household. 

Tuesday, March 2, 2021

FBI director testifies on Capitol Riots: Opportunities for National Improvement in Thwarting Future Extremism

This is going to be interesting. Radical ideology can be anywhere. It can be overseas and it can be in the U.S.. We must change our lens and implement a new strategy if we are going to tackle this at its more fundamental levels (in our neighborhoods and towns). One of the problems is that national leadership seems to know all the answers without asking the right questions. 

Ranking member Mr. Grassley indicates they need data on extremism information and percentages but there is no real way to track without coding the information properly for researchers to understand. Universal Justice means we use the same kind of lens for hate and extremist behaviors in general. Seeing Jihadist, White Supremist, or any other type of extremism has the same fundamental root causes.

I think FBI Director Christopher Wray did a pretty good job with is answer by indicating that the ideology encourages violence or breaks federal law they want to go after it. It is hard to turn raw intelligence into meaningful results quickly in a way that leads effective decision-making. 

The problem we still face is that most of these behaviors are underreported and we don't know its extent. If they don't know about it, they can't do anything about it. These behaviors happen all the time, but they are often put in the context of other crimes (i.e. property theft, etc...). Associated crimes must be tagged to categorize, cross analyze, run statistics, put into meaningful reports, etc..

Most of the agencies that are partnered with the Federal Government to report hate crimes haven't had much reporting. This indicates that local departments are not understanding, coding, or taking seriously hate crimes. While it may or may not be intentional, it does create a serious problem for finding solutions and/or restoring institutional trust. 

Important Point: If you notice how the nation discusses these issues over the past few years (decades, etc..) we begin to gain a deeper understanding of why/how socio-political movements are occuring.

One possible strategy Michigan could consider is to put in place a system of uncovering and labeling lower level way correctly...

Opportunities for Hate Crime Reform Michigan-Better Coding and Better Solutions

Of course matching that information with other sources of information leads to greater understanding of what is happening before it happens. 

Hate on Social Media-Are Current Michigan Laws Adequate?

Small Business Filings Up Nationally: Escanaba as an Example of Growth Opportunity

U.S. Small business filings are up significantly and that could have an impact on the overall success of communities as well as the long ter...