Call for Papers: The 12th International Conference on Knowledge, Economy and Management

Abstract Submitting Deadline: October 15, 2014 

Website: www.beykon.org

ICKEM2014 organized by Istanbul Medeniyet University and University of Wisconsin Milwaukee on November 27-30, 2014 in Antalya-Turkey. 

ICKEM Conferences bring together various researchers of the information revolution in academia and industry, social scientists or scholars and graduate students to exchange and share their experiences and research results about all aspects of Knowledge, Economy and Management, and to discuss challenges encountered and solutions adopted. 

The ICKEM Conference has a very special place as it is one of the very few continuous conferences regularly held in this areas. The conference has teamed up with the International Journal of Knowledge Economy and Knowledge Management - The JKEM for publishing a Special Journal Issue on Knowledge Economy and Knowledge Management.

Are Positive Indicators Tipping In Favor of the U.S. Economy?

The economy appears to be moving forward into a post-Recession period. Multiple markers are turning positive as jobless claims decline, confidence rises, manufacturing expands, employment numbers improve and inflation increases. The general predictors are positive and optimism is returning to the market showing higher levels of economic activity.

Of particular interest is manufacturing which has a significant impact as a root source of income and job growth. As manufacturing moves upward future investment is likely to spur further economic growth in supporting industries. This is supported by positive improvements in small business optimism and hiring. 

Jobless Claims: According to the Department of Labor’s June 14th figures unemployment figures are at 312,000 (of 2,561,000) which is a 6,000 decrease from the previous week and near pre-recession levels in 2007 (of  2,541,000) (DOL, June 19^th, 2014). 

Consumer Confidence: Bloomberg expectations gauge rose to 48.5% while women and people earning more than $100K are also more confident (1).  The positive sentiment can reflect people’s willingness to make purchases, invest money, and engage in positive economic activity. 

Expanding Manufacturing: The U.S. National Economic Committee recently released numbers showing that manufacturing output since the official end of the recession increased 30% and is increasing 50% faster than the rest of the economy (6). Likewise, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank released a statement that its business activity index jumped to 17.8 based upon improved manufacturing, orders, employment, hours, delivery times, and shipments (2). 

Employment Hiring Improvement: According to U.S. treasury Secretary Jack Lew the economy added 217,000 jobs in May (2). The unemployment rate remained under 6.5% at 6.3% indicating the majority of society can find some level of employment. 

General Predictors Up: The Conference Board stated their index moved from .3 to .5% based upon a number of measurements that include financial and employment numbers (3). Using wide measurements creates battery of numbers that work to test multiple areas of the economic market. 

Federal Reserve Discusses Inflation: Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen released a statement that the economy is continuing to grow and stimulus infusions are on track to be tapered back (4). Inflation is starting to tick upwards signaling economic activity is more robust. 

Small Business Optimism High: The National Federation of Independent Business revealed their Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.4 points to 96.6 last month (5). They are optimistic about sales and hiring which lends further support to the economy.

The Economic Recovery by Charts-Technology vs. Service

The New York Times is getting sophisticated with their online news reporting and interactive media. It seems as though they are following some of the trends displayed within the report. The article “How the Recession Reshaped the Economy, in 255 Charts” highlights industry changes over the past decade providing some great and not-so-great news. The mapping of economic data helps provide a greater understanding and analysis of market trends.

A Mixed Recovery: Jobs in the middle of the spectrum shrunk while the periphery grew. Employment in healthcare and energy grew while jobs in construction and real estate declined. 

Different Kinds of Jobs: The low end service industry and the high end technology sector experienced increases. 

Home Prices: Home prices have rebounded but new construction has not. 

U.S. Manufacturing: Manufacturing has seen a reemergence in the export laden sectors such as aerospace and medical equipment but less in labor intensive industries such as clothing.

Energy and Oil Rebound: Energy and oil industries have moved upwards.

Digital Revolution: Traditional publishers declined but those industries relying on data such as online sales, online content, and software skyrocketed.

Grooming: Nail salons, pet services, and cosmetic products moved upward.

The report doesn’t provide deep explanations as to why certain industries were successful in the new market and others were not so successful. The service industry is growing and providing more jobs to those who are entering the labor market, have been displaced, or have not gained enough knowledge to move into higher skilled jobs. Low skilled and labor intensive sectors are declining in the U.S. while being displaced to low labor cost countries. However, high technology and analytical markets that include biotechnology, cutting edge manufacturing, and digital services are gaining. 

The report helps highlight how new skills and greater education will be needed for high paying jobs in the new economy. Many of these industries are scientific, information technology reliant, and require higher levels of critical thinking to operate effectively. It is difficult for countries to easily copy this knowledge and the U.S. is gaining traction in attracting, retaining and growing these industries. 

Housing isn’t as important to the aging Baby Boomer demographic. Many are either selling their homes, remodeling them, or leaving them as part of their wills. The Millennial Generation is just starting to purchase homes and due to budget and financing constraints is optioning to purchase existing homes versus building new ones.  They have learned to do more with less-fixer uppers in descent neighborhoods are great. 

People also want to feel good even though they don't have a lot of money. They are taking their dogs to the parks, groomers, and trainers. They are getting their hair done and polishing their nails. Even though some money is being spent the process is generally more psychological. Spending a little money looking good and feeling good increases positive feelings. Household wealth appears to be slowly climbing again.

The market is continuing to transition from the Industrial Age to the Information Age. Highly technical skills are needed to ensure that new products and services are effective in competing on the global market. Those being rewarded within the economy have gained sufficient skill, education, and knowledge to move into growing sectors. Some are being displaced and taking jobs where they can find them. The service industry is growing and appears to be filling this need with greater job growth. The economic recovery is split into a camel hump gain.

 Ashkenaws, J. & Parlapiano, A. (June 5^th, 2014). How the Recession Reshaped the Economy, in 255 Charts. New York Times. Retrieved June 5^th, 2014 from http://nyti.ms/1mX3dd7

Top American Concerns- Jobs, Economy, and Government

According to a recent Gallop Poll 20% of Americans are worried about jobs, 19% on how government functions, and 17% about the nature of the economy. Over the past year all three have switched places as main American concerns and appear to be somewhat tied in a race of sprints and walks with each coming out on top at one time or another.  Some are saying it is the economy and others are indicating it is the employment rate-all three numbers are likely associated.

Certainly there is no denying the connection between the employment rate and the strength of the economy. A strong economy is able to create jobs and keep people employed. Generally, as the economy improves so does opportunities for gainful employment. Employment rate is a major symptom of economic strength and can fluctuate as the economy shifts gears. 

However, the numbers released by Gallop indicate that the economy, employment, and perception of government are important to Americans. Research by Heinz Welsch found that life satisfaction is negatively associated with unemployment and positively associated with growth (2011). As the economic engine speeds up, so does the satisfaction of citizens and this is an obvious benefit to everyone.

Likewise, other research supports the concept that trust in local government is associated with overall satisfaction and often results in residence retention (Van Ryzin, et. al. 2004). The New York study helps highlight how governmental functioning impacts satisfaction and may run off into other areas such as employment numbers and economic strength. 

Over the recession employment growth has been based primarily in small business. Further research by Glaeser & Kerr (2010) helps us understand that many small businesses lead to greater job growth than a few large employers alone. Revitalizing small business can have a direct impact on economic growth and in turn the employment rate. The same can be said for cities and national economics.

What we may find through the Gallop study is that as the economy speeds up and more jobs are created that concerns of government effectiveness are likely to decline while citizen satisfaction rises. Of course there are no perfect solutions and there are many confounding variables that go into the development of a nation. Many of the variables are associated with each other in one way or another but do not have a one-to-one relationship.  Focusing on the economy and the employment numbers seem to improve perception of government effectiveness and therefore a proper place for discussion.

Glaeser, E. & Kerr, W. (2010). The secret to job growth: think small. Harvard Business Review, 88, (7/8). 

Riffkin, R. (May 19, 2014). Jobs, Government, and Economy Remain Top U.S. Problems. Gallup Politics. Retrieved May 20^th, 2014 from http://www.gallup.com/poll/169289/jobs-government-economy-remain-top-problems.aspx

Van Ryzin, G. et. al. (2004). Drivers and consequences of citizen satisfaction: an application of American customer satisfaction index model to New York City. Public Administration Review, 64 (3). 

Welsch, H. (2011). The magic triangle of macroeconomics: how do European countries score? Oxford Economic Papers, 63 (1).

New Economic Indicators Point to an Improved U.S. Business Climate

The economy is picking up steam with positive markers in trade, manufacturing, consumer confidence and service industry growth. Multiple markers help encourage positive feelings among consumers and investors alike. As the market continues to show positive signs it will naturally influence the available purchasing habits of consumers and opportunities of investors.  Even though the positive signs are only blips on an economic radar they do lean toward potential new growth in the near future.

America is making its way back to global dominance as the trade gap narrows and worldwide demand for American products ticks slightly upward.  It is a small start…but it is a start. According to new numbers from the Trade Department the trade gap shrank 3.6% to $40.4 billion dollars from the prior month of $41.9 billion (1). This small adjustment in the trade gap highlights that there is some potential momentum in the market. 

Exports increased 2.1% to $193.9 billion in March (2).  This is good news for manufacturers and investors who seek to find higher rates of return. A small improvement in export growth indicates that there are opportunities within the market that are not fully realized or explored. Additional investment can help support those numbers to turn investment into profitable output.

Furthermore, information from the Institute for Supply Management also indicates that there is acceleration in manufacturing growth while the Labor Department states that 288,000 nonfarm roll jobs were added last month (3).  As production in manufacturing increases so does the likelihood of greater employment opportunities. 

Exports increased $3.9 billion in capital goods, industrial supplies, and automotive related products. Imports also increased $2.5 billion in consumer goods, capital goods, and foods, feeds and beverages.  The overall trend on the graph leans to the trend that growth in exportation is rising over time even though the individual quarters are bouncing from positive to negative. 

 Consumer confidence rose highly within the first quarter of 2014 sparked by a 6% increase with 44% of Americans feeling positive about putting money in the bank again (4).  The importation of personal products is a direct result of positive impressions in society as consumers make their way to the stores. Consumer confidence is also rising in other places creating an upward push on the demand for products and services. 

When consumer confidence rises people generally feel better about their prospects and are willing to spend more of their hard earned capital. This can create additional support for increases in manufacturing and service industry development. The service industry also saw a few percentage point rise around the first quarter thereby complementing other sectors (5). The countries that capitalize on supplying to the needs of the global market are more likely to see greater rebound. Before one can supply to that market they must understand the global market needs and put that within a progressive framework.

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