Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Deloitte’s Gen Z and Millennial 2023: Findings and Implications

Gen Z and Millennials are different from prior generations because they have deeply embedded values learned from the trials and tribulations of those who came before them. They also may not have the same opportunities so things will change. Thus, with more thoughtful leadership at the top we can fully engage the next batch of American workers, inventors, and social advocates.

This generation has seen some improvement in their perceptions of employers and they do so based on their unique needs. The report highlights how companies can engage these groups for employment if they to maximize their human talent contributions and influence of positive values of improving society.

(Different generations bring different values. During our generation we wobbled on certain challenges but this generation has the making of one that will reorient to a higher standard of societal values and improve human capital competitiveness.)

The following optimistic leaning information was quoted as highlights from the Deloitte 2023 Gen Z and Millennial Survey 

-Gen Zs and millennials believe employers have made progress in a number of areas since pre-pandemic times.

-This year, approximately one-third of Gen Zs and millennials in full- or part-time work reported that they are very satisfied with their work/life balance, compared to only one in five in 2019.

-Satisfaction with workplace flexibility is also on the rise. There has been a steady increase in satisfaction with employers’ efforts around DEI since 2019. And respondents are now more likely to be very satisfied with their organization’s societal impact.

-More Gen Zs (19%) and millennials (17%) now strongly agree that large companies are taking substantive action to protect the environment, a slight improvement since 2019.

-While these positive trends show Gen Zs and millennials are slightly more satisfied with their own employers, they are not convinced that business more broadly is having a positive impact.

Monday, February 26, 2024

The Hypothetical Feather Party Supports a Reasonable Federal Spending Deal!

The Federal Budget is a big deal and is important for the nation as a whole. The debate between the parties has led to some interesting discussions on what is the best way forward. In general, we know that we must pass a budget in a way that leads to a fiscally stronger nation. How that is going to happen is part of the discussion. The Hypothetical Feather Party comes out in support of a reasonable budget.

Consider the article below to understand the situation better.

Showdown Federal Spending '24

Furthermore, If you read read this research on how cutting expenses versus raising taxes is more beneficial you will also notice it mentions raising revenue but not into specific detail (A problem not easy to define and unique to each nation.). IMF Climbing out of Debt '18

The point that is important here is that cutting through removing waste reduces the cost burden while seeking net positives through focused industry-government coordination can increase revenue by enhancing investment environments. 

If done in the right way, the Hypothetical Feather Party feels it could be an economic policy that encourages innovation and broader industry adaptations that improve U.S. mid and long term fundamental competitiveness.

A couple of bullet points to think about:

1.) Cut wasted expenditures that don't have ROI/return/impact as measured by their purposes (Possible approach to consider is to fund for 90 days resizing programs at current levels and wind back by percentage to the appropriate level over time increments to allow for healthy program adjustments. i.e. only those areas that need adjustment. There may be some where one might wind up if they are functioning well. Put the money where it creates benefits.).

2.) Realign programs to maximize effectiveness and consider removing/revamping programs not effective (A few focuses: 1.) Program effectiveness to mission/purpose, 2.) Improve net positives to economy GDP, 3.) Enhancing citizen quality of life/opportunities)

3.) Create net positives to attract investment and industry adaptations that help multiple societal sectors (i.e. invest in innovation and their platforms)

Hypothetical Feather Party Statement: If the two leading parties get close to a balanced budget we will support. Our ideology is the health of the nation and we owe no loyalty to anything but that; not even to our own party. (The Hypothetical Feather Party HFP supports decisions that help the next generation in over the horizon strategies.  A Strategic management Process '23)

The Hypothetical Feather Party is used for illustrative purposes on how a larger independent voter block wrapped into a loose affiliation can lead to political lubricant that improves national decision making and performance outcomes. If you want to read about the example you can at 'Hypothetical Feather Party (HFP)'. (HFP doesn't exist so please don't argue with it! 😆)

(Stay tuned because we might discuss our leading primary candidates Mr. Snuffleupagus vs Oscar the Grouch! Its getting heated in the primary, as they just sat for lunch discussed their shared commitment to the betterment of their nation and how no matter who wins they will do the best they can to be helpful.

 Constructive dialogue and active listening skills were used to understand what each side wanted and they could agree "in theory" that a pathway to fulfill both is likely. Candidates felt energized by the new perspective they learned from each other as a pathway to improving society. 

Oscar was a little grouchy because he felt he should have thought of some of the ideas Mr. Snuffleupagus thought of but he felt he could improve if he was more reflective. He want's to be better at doing the best for everyone.

Best yet, the both agreed to not push the lunch bill on each other and decided to split the responsibility. They initially jumped to solve the problem but then realized compromise was better so both parties got something. A radical notion? ðŸ˜²)

Sunday, February 25, 2024

Impressive 75 Year Old Granny Becomes Firefighter

Volunteer firefighters are the backbone of our fire protection services nationally. They put in a lot of work and it can be challenging. Not running 3 miles with 60 lbs and gear challenging but still challenging. I have seen training where you are blindfolded in full gear and can't stand up but must find and drag a victim out of a fire. That is heavy!

Likewise, If you are a climate change challenger get into the game and join your local volunteer firefighting team might do you and your community some good.

Hats off to the trained firefighter because she sets the standard for others. She has no excuses, so you should have none either. 

What is Court Misconduct? The Importance of Justice

I'm a supporter of the justice system so much that I hope it gets better at catching bad guys/gals and protecting our streets. I also help it removes systemic bigotries and ensures that each of its pieces acts with integrity. That doesn't mean that most don't but it means that when there is intentional misconduct there are few backstops and that has longer term logical consequences. Judge Misconduct 

Most people can understand mistakes and know that they come with the territory where one must make choices over imperfect information. However, intentional mistakes or repeated mistakes have no recourse for the victims they create. Poor decisions are one thing but consistently poor is another. Its a type of choice. Corruption Index

As always I support what I think is in the best interest of society. If these behaviors are occurring they should be corrected and if they are not corrected then we should consider other options and laws to ensure they are corrected. The point being that systems rise in trust when they are doing the right things and decline when they are not. Court Trust Stats.

If there is declining trust then we should find ways to restore and that comes with focus on the spirit of the law and the social artifacts we collectively believe in. 

Dale Carnegie Survey on Creating a Culture of High Performing Teams

Effective teams make a difference in the success and failure of an organization. It makes no difference if we are discussing business or government. Teams are about using our human assets to overcome challenges to further missions. When everyone is focused and have goal commitment you will find the vision becoming closer to reality.

A Leadership Imperative: Creating a Culture of High-Performing Teams '23

1. High-performance” starts with defining a clear purpose and vision.

2. Focus on closing perception gaps regarding productivity, satisfaction, and culture between leaders and employees.

3. Successfully cultivating high-performing teams includes understanding what makes a team satisfied.

4. High-performing teams communicate effectively.

5. Adaptability is more than a buzzword for high-performing teams. It’s an individual mindset, shared culture, and an action plan.

6. Collaboration and cross-functionality are essential.

(Here is a side note. If you don't start with selecting the right personalities to be on a team then they are unlikely to go very far as ulterior motives, conflicts, toxic behaviors, etc. derail group performance. There is a difference between those who challenge teams with beneficial disagreements and those who are destructive and hamper progress. When you have obstructionists on a team with goals different than the professed mission/goal then few things will likely get passed/done and those that do won't be as good as the products of teams with healthier dynamics.)


 

Saturday, February 24, 2024

The Importance of Human and Civil Rights to Society and to Our Opportunities

There are places where we are still struggling with basic understanding of right over wrong or the purpose and intent of our laws. Not to mention a nation built on freedom and civil rights. While some confusion may be possible on the technicalities of the law, there should be little to no confusion on their intent. No matter our knowledge level, we should not support behaviors that run against the grain of justice and our social contracts. A greater and higher level of insight and commitment to our ideals is needed if we wish to maximize our intellectual and diverse talents. 

Let me give you a hypothetical example to consider and mull over while grocery shopping, watching tv or browsing the net. In between the spaces that fill our lives. Its hypothetical for discussion purposes only.......

A family was targeted because someone wanted to protect a crime and enrich off of hate. They spread bigoted rumors, utilized close connections with a corrupt group of officials, and possibly put the family on a target list for a larger network of extremists. They pulled over kids, negligent in protecting against elder abuse, attempted arrests of minorities on religious holidays to signal acceptable religions. One could create a list that could go on, and on, like the energizer bunny (Seriously they are dark souls out there in the world creating problems for others. I'm sure we all met a few of them in our lifetimes.).

To further the hypothetical example, complaints by others from the past and the present came forward to be quickly discarded and silenced by the same officials that were causing the problem. Good officials became muted in fear of being rejected and disliked because of an environment of toxicity (Hate Group Map)The seeds to human atrocity were sewn into the soil and attempts to water that choking weed of hate were normalized and encouraged. 

One primary issue one could think about is that there are a lot of people complaining and not a lot of solutions or attempts to fix those problems. The rise is due in part to current hyper-politics and its gamesmanship with rights that have become subject for party debate to score points to increase political donations. It has little to do with the needs of the nation and typically works in opposition. The big picture and security of the country relies on the best and brightest coming forward to further the nation's central mission and values (party neutral comment).

Let me say one of the reasons why I do not support bigotry and extremism is because it inherently illogical bias to the point that it not only robs the victims but also the rest of the society that are still reaching for democracy and human freedom. Worse! It robes the next generation in the same way a bad parent might harm their own kids; except all these kids belong to us as a society. It is unfair to put our ideological and moral failures onto the next generation (Good thing they amazingly are sociologically more mature than ours. Gen Z and Millennial Cross Party Concerns '23). This is where logic and soul searching might work together.

Places where these things happen and there are no attempts to hold the initiators accountable means we are giving up on some of these time honored generational to generational values. Discarded them as of no particular importance to those who see them as obstacles and not guidance. Most of society still believes in rights and their oaths but some might be providing more lip service than substance. Life, liberty and pursuit happiness are more important today than at any other time in history; save two. Our loyalties to the Constitution and human rights are not political football for the connected class or reality tv politics where genuine leadership would make more sense. Why is it hard to prosecute hate crimes?

Going forward I believe examples like this help remind us that we have a lot of work still to do as a nation to maximize our options and outcomes. We have an untapped goldmine of talent in one of the largest most diverse generations to take the helm of our democratic republic. It is incumbent on every American citizen to support moral conscious and the most strategic paths forward to prepare for change. We should make sacred the Constitutional protections as one of the central artifacts of democracy and act and live by it.

Keep in mind that any group can violate the rights of another group. Some groups have historically shown various forms of bigotries against Blacks/African American but certainly could be any out-group members. Out group status is dependent on the particular power dynamics and demographics that make up of a group and its environmental context. It is intuitive as a nation of minorities that we tackle behaviors that intentionally run afoul of our needs and legacies. duh!

The article below is an interesting one because it ties class and race together. It may be one reason why hate groups go insanely angry when someone they perceive as less human, having less rights, less American, acts as though they have realized value and confirm people should be judged on merit. Outperform hate groups and you might find a car outside your house, community members stalked, and general disdain for the rights of "the other" (As defined by their mirror. Mirror Neurons 👆 and the mirrors of Jungian Shadow Projection Sorry, theoretical dribble, bribble...)....

Understanding the U.S. Economy for Racial Healing

Me, I believe if you treat people as valuable members, you provide a vision for a shared future, embrace central universal American values, and point a finger to the pathway where the greatest strategic place can be found ( Axis Mundi poem on knowledge) . We are strongest as a nation when we use our exceptional human talents to help people be the best they can be for the maximum benefit of society as a whole (Broad based capitalism as defined by opportunities for financial and personal growth throughout all demographics. A persons character, skills, and grit should determine where they end up. A merit approach. Streets of Gold). 

S&P Global PMI Rises: Indicates Expanded Manufacturing in the US (Feb. 22, 2024 Theory Development)

Rise manufacturing orders, expanding manufacturing jobs, and general growth trajectory seem to point to a stronger economy. The rise in manufacturing and implementation of innovative technologies matched with human capital can further economic expansion (based on global marketing and demand) of U.S. produced goods (The goal is to be at the highest place in the supply chain where advanced manufacturing and creativity/innovation/human capital produce the most ROI in value.). What we want to see is increases in exports and dips in imports.

Exports and dips would show consumer demand naturally opting for higher demand American products that compounds American wealth. We would also want exports to rise so that money is drawn into the U.S. system and with luck to encourage broad based capitalism where the working, creative, middle, and entrepreneurial class get the biggest advantages so as to encourage economic engagement.

(From my theory standpoint I'm watching core inflation rise, reviewing these indexes, and watching to see signs of economic homeostasis where higher GDP growth is common versus pre Pandemic. i.e. platform shift. One explanation is that Covid forced many U.S. companies to go online and in turn speed development much like when the Internet hit the market and increased GDP. 

With rapid change like AI and other sciences we could be experiencing the leading edge of a Renaissance that historically accompanies wide sociological and technology changes matched with human capital enhancements. i.e. improved opportunities for the next generation and growth options for the best and brightest. We are still struggling in this nation with human capital and education issues so we have knowledge/science bottlenecks. We are also struggling with strategic decision making due to political dysfunction that could be limiting our opportunities.

There are some interesting points below that we should consider. Me, I'm just watching to see what happens. 

Key Points S&P Global Composite Index:

Flash US PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 51.4 (January: 52.0). 2-month low. 

Flash US Services Business Activity Index(2) at 51.3 (January: 52.5). 3-month low. 

Flash US Manufacturing Output Index(4) at 52.3 (January: 49.3). 10-month high. 

Flash US Manufacturing PMI(3) at 51.5 (January: 50.7). 17-month high

Thursday, February 22, 2024

UoM Study-Detroit Outlook to 2028: Lower Inflation, Higher Wages, Job Growth and Optimism Rising (Should Industry Notice?)

Detroit is looking like a much stronger and optimistic place when compared to when it slipped during the bankruptcy, wobbly got to its feet, and is now off the ropes swinging and landing punches! For some industries, Detroit could garner additional interest from a global market still looking for places ripe for advanced manufacturing (i.e. as a place of growing industrial power.). Sometimes you can build from the infrastructure and skills of the past to develop something stronger. (Boxing Motivation.)

(Met a few boxers in my life. I happened to meet him briefly for a second in Greektown as one of the many millions of people he has likely met in his life. I still box for fitness but was never good good because i had other pursuits. It is a good augmentation for fitness. Sorry...side note. Remember its a blog so there may be random stuff included.

Things are looking cautiously optimistic for Detroit. They might beat the market on a number of metrics that can increase its market appeal. 

(I think of Detroit as a place where modern industries can be built and produced. All the things that made Detroit great in the past might add up to even greater future.)

Consider some trends, 

-Detroit residents income will rise 3.7% from '24 to '28 which is higher then the state average of 3.0 % (Cha Ching!)

-Detroit unemployment rose 8.2% but is historically a declining trend (Looking optimistic overall.). 

-Detroit residents’ total real income per capita grows by a cumulative 7.7 percent from 2023 to 2028. (This is helpful for improving local wealth retention.)

-Local inflation is likely to decline in line with other places to 2.5% from '25 to '28. 

This seems to be positive news for the city that went through a bankruptcy in 2022/12. It has a special place in our history and is central to Michigan's competitive abilities as industries change and seek fertile manufacturing ground.

City of Detroit Forecast '24 to '28

Also a nice article in Michigan Advance. Detroit Forecast '28 MI. Advan.


Wednesday, February 21, 2024

The Need to Enhance Military Supply Chain (US Secretary of Navy Challenges Suppliers)

The U.S. is in a situation where capacity needs to speed up, innovation quicker, and recruitment enhanced. While we are still the strongest military in existence at this time we are being challenged on multiple fronts. That will require doing things in new ways and pushing the supply chain to develop and be more nimble. New thoughts, new ways to do things, and perhaps in some cases new suppliers. 

In all business we should be nimble and adaptable. Where there are deficiencies, there is room for improvement. That requires thinking about how we are currently doing things and improving on existing processes. Trust me, there are always ways to improve any system. That is any system.

Sometimes we can do completely new things and find higher results. Nothing stays the same for long and when it does it typically gets lets effective over time. Adjustment is part of the overall process for enhanced performance.

You may read. US Secretary of the Navy criticises industry suppliers

-Poor delivery times

-Poor capacity

(I have an idea for advanced clusters to improve the industry innovation chain and multiple industries to create butterfly effects but the idea hasn't caught on. Typically, these are more political issues than practical ones. No guarantees but the science is supported. I also know a great location to build prototype mid or small ships, robotics or equipment. Its a small place but within  the vicinity of a larger supply chain that can take new ideas and maximize them for larger production. )

Let me say this, I respect our military and the people who serve and support. Our supply chain needs some changes to improve capacity, new weapons, (duel with space and robotics), adaptability and the capacity to supply multiple conflicts over a long period of time. All of that comes down to exploring new things and getting outside the box. Taking some strategic and reasonable chances.

Consider Product Life Cycle and Swotch  and Aligning Organizational Strategies. Sometimes adjusting the incentives, leadership, information pathways, and resources can help. Other times one can study and improve current processes. The key point is that improvement takes work and commitment by the entire chain. Innovation should be rewarded.

Not particularly a popular thought among some political leadership corners but if our young men and women are willing to put themselves at risk than it is somewhat incumbent on our military's suppliers to put everything they got into building the best equipment and capacity they can. It saves lives and it accomplishes missions. Of particular importance, our nation needs it!

We must look beyond our pocketbooks (An interesting video on philosophy on money. If your interested in philosophy.). 

I thought you might enjoy this motivating video.....

Tuesday, February 20, 2024

Conference Board Index CEI Indicates No Recession but Possible Slow Growth Q2 and Q3, 2024

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2 percent in January 2024 to 112.1 (2016=100). That is after a 0.2 percent increase in December 2023. It does not signal a recession but does project slower real GDP growth Q2 and Q3. 

We will just have to wait to see what happens. Let us keep an eye out for other information from other sources that comes forward to see which way the winds are blowing.

Key Points:

-Six out of its ten components were positive contributors over the past six-month period.

- Three out of four components of the index were positive in January, with payroll employment and personal income having a bigger factor.

-Slow real GDP growth around Q2 and Q3.

There are 10 components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (Conference Board, 2024, para 6.), quoted, 

(If you don't know what the components mean read Description of Components)

"The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include: Average weekly hours in manufacturing; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials; ISM® Index of New Orders; Manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders; Building permits for new private housing units; S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices; Leading Credit Index™; Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate); Average consumer expectations for business conditions.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/ "

The Conference Board (Feb. 20, 2024) US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) Fell Further in January. https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/2923159674379861305/2952137772727677595

Monday, February 19, 2024

What is Presidents Day?

 In case your interested today is Presidents Day! Interesting video I was listening to in the background while I was working on other stuff. 

The Science of Hate: Should People be Judged by Merit or Superficial Differences?

Hate is one of those things that is destructive to society but persists in the nooks and crannies where the light of good moral conscious is dim. There are evolutionary aspects to hate that persist today in various facets of society. One only needs to talk to the recipients of hate to grasp the profound impact it has on society. Where it exists we should improve, where it is protected we should correct, and where it is actualized we should reform (Words of Wisdom).

Each man and woman in society should be judged on merit and not on superficial race, religion, or other variances in existence (any society and any place). We owe it to the concept of justice and to the very basic aspects of social contracts to improve where there are deficiencies of judgement and outcomes. One might even argue that every person has a moral responsibility to improve when they have the capacity to do so (A higher metric).

(I have been using a long running hypothetical example of targeted hate. In this example, minority family was targeted consistently over 5 years based on hate, corruption and extremism. The perpetrators were protected due to social ethnocentric affiliations. The targets are forgiving people and simply want a correction to ensure the public is protected from future harm and incentives of such hate are removed.

I think this would be a good example of what we want victims of hate to do because it is constructive and prosocial in orientation. Hate is the opposite and it detracts from society and weakens human capital competitiveness through signaling to other minorities through identity aggression. Most cultures believe that light, truth, helpfulness are more important than dark, dishonesty and destructiveness. It is a universal concept for a universal democracy.)

I encourage people, specifically, the next generation, to think about how universal and fair treatment leads to greater national competitiveness and moral purpose. Patriotism and doing the right thing even when its not popular. Group think or unexamined false beliefs have been the cause of many historic missteps that people cringe at in hindsight (An improper lens due to lack of diversity issue.). 

To me patriotism is about pushing for the best most functional and competitive society we can create. Lack of deeper patriotism is working in the opposite way. This is why when one comes to a crossroads I always encourage to think about the greater versus the lower because it leads to the best outcomes. 

"Wisdom alone is the science of other sciences" Plato

*The information in this article is designed for learning purposes only. The choices to accept new learning and change is a sign of that learning. 

Sunday, February 18, 2024

The Hypothetical Feather Party Supports Improving National Decision Making (Illustrative Example Only)

We have changes coming in this country because each sprouting generation brings with it newer and more enlightened values learned from the successes and failures of the past. The founding fathers knew that we should never be sticky or irrationally staunch without considering the greater needs of society. Thus, they developed a system that can handle beneficial change and we do that in a democracy through discussion and vote. A younger generation will take their seat at the table and they will vote in act in ways that overcome the problems of their time. Values, structure of democracy, and whatever assets we earned from good governances of the past are the only things we can pass on.

Society also adapts by incorporating new ideas and people into decision making positions at various places and levels in society. Gen Z and Millennials are large and different when compared to prior generations and thus will have new needs, hopes and desires. All the decisions should focus just over the horizon. Generation Demo US '22

(The Feather Party is a Hypothetical for learning purposes on the concepts of vote tipping through a stronger independent block of politicians and voters that break deadlocks based on the needs of the younger generations. If such a party exists it would support strong leaders from a wider more balanced pool of diverse Americans based on their quality of character and desire to support fundamental American values. The benefit of the hypothetical party is that merit is the fundamentals of a democracy and broad based capitalism. Every man and women should earn based on their actualized skills and judged by their character in a diverse environment that supports their natural desires to compete. They are a human capital and humanism hypothetical type party. The Feather Party)

When fewer and more wealthy people making more decisions for 100's of millions of Americans we must ensure they are strengthening the fundamentals of what a modern America would and should look like. We do that best by electing leaders who can understand resource optimization and market competitiveness through evidence based strategic decision making around shared goals of all of society. Rich and poor all have a stake in how the nation is run. Not just one and not just the other but every American citizen. The Great Experiment

Furthermore, accuracy improves when we include diverse peoples with diverse perspectives at the very top of society where choices impact outcomes. The best and brightest should rise to important positions so as to ensure we have people who are most capable to lead so as to avoid unconstructive politics or slipping of our legacy. Notice of how status quo groups have some difficulty in passing solutions and how a third party with tippable strength could help. Decision Making Traps

(Interesting, perhaps a smaller party of pro democracy protectors that help guide the other two parties to solutions by creating political lubricant. i.e. you can't just convince your party but also must convince some of other parties in a way that helps round out decisions.)

No one would put together an advanced team of decision makers that could be influenced by group think and struggle to perform independently. When it comes to decision making we desire to encourage leaders who focus more on the bigger picture and with less emphasis on party loyalty (Not as though its not important but should be less important than the nation.). No matter what our current place of performance we can improve decision making by including different perspectives more connected to daily life and the way in which people live in a Middle Class, Working, Entrepreneurial, and Creative Class level. 

These are not debates on, for, or against any party but the ability to think beyond current dynamics. 

1. Pick those who can think independently but can vote with others when needed.  

2. Pick those who can construct logical and well thought out ideas. Evidence based decision making.

3. Pick those who care about their children and grand children more than themselves. The less selfish the better.

4. Pick from different groups, people, demographic levels to raise diversity and shared decision making. Seek to understand a problem from multiple angels before deciding on strategy.

5. Pick those who will uphold our social contracts. These are people who understand that even when they don't get something they want the social contracts are more important than their desires.

6. Pick Those who can handle disagreements and don't quickly attack those who have alternative perspectives (Its a leadership quality thing!)

Add as many as you want. You get the idea....

*This is for illustrative purposes. It does not exist.

.  

Saturday, February 17, 2024

Feb. 15th, 2024 Escanaba MI. City Council Meeting: Water, Art Center, Skating and Renewable Energy

This meeting was a little longer at 1 hour which definitely means something important was happening. The conversations were deep and focused on water valve replacement which is expensive, some great stuff happening at the Bonifas Art Center, renewable energy sources, and an interesting idea to create an ice skating rink in Ludington Park. The city is in a problem resolution stage so if you have great ideas on how to fund and fix this problem, and it seems like a substantive solution that helps the community, I'm sure you can send them an email at the Escanaba Site. Good ideas can come from anywhere just make sure you are not sending people down rabbit holes without substantive well thought out plans.

A Scene on the Ice, c. 1625
I picked up some skates from Good Will 3 years ago.
I'm ready!

The water repairs will be expensive but I believe if we piecemeal grants, money and options together we can get over this hump. Definitely not insurmountable. Water and energy independence is beneficial for towns this rural who are attracting residents and vacationers that need those services. My perspective on energy is if we can generate our own and still be connected to the grid we reduce risk of energy shortages (A different kind of discussion for later and likely more a county oriented issue. 

What I found very interesting is the ice rink. I have seen them contribute significantly to lifestyle and aesthetics. Vacationers are likely to enjoy as well. It is unlikely to be super expensive compared to many other programs but we will want to make sure it is sustainable. Where I have seen them do well people come to the park, roast marshmallows over a fire (I have seen in Big Bear Cali a fire pit with a round protective grid over it.) and start to enjoy the outdoors. Considering we are a hockey and nature town it fits.   

Feb 6, 2024 Delta County MI. Commissioner Meeting

Another exciting meeting in DC MI. Issues such as the airport, land use, recall, taxes, energy independence, and citizen complaints were discussed.  The county has a lot of great things going on for it and the area is becoming known as an investment hotspot and vacation mecca. A few lingering issues remain.

The broad range of topics covered during the meeting indicates that even small semi-isolated attractive places such as Delta County Michigan deal with many of the same issues as we might find on a state and national level.

 There has been some commotion over a number of years related to allegations of good old boy networks, corruption, threats, and political extremism. They have not gone away but hopefully they will be resolved in the best interest of everyone soon. 

As always my suggestion is to work in a bipartisan manner in alignment with our values in order to ensure the public's interest is protected and furthered. We do that best through integrity and transparency. Good governance comes from listening to the needs of the people and adjusting appropriately as to what is in their best interest. 

Setting goals and achieving goals in the most efficient way. It comes from building consensus around shared visions. Community goals such as economic development, increased investments, additional recreational outlets, getting drugs off the streets, improving educational opportunities, or any number of other goals comes easiest with the work of many hands. Community engagement is not the problem, it is the pathway to success

As a side note, I have a deep and profound respect for the veterans who have sacrificed so much so people can speak and practice freely (with civility). Making our veterans a priority is a patriotic act.

Friday, February 16, 2024

Feb '24 Consumer Sentiment is Still High -Varies by Political Party (UoM Index of Consumer Sentiment)

Consumer sentiment is still high so people are feeling pretty good at the moment. That often means we should have some upward pressure on the economy. 

You may read UoM Survey of Consumers Feb '24

Consumer sentiment rose .6% indicating increased probability of a forward leading economy (1 factor). (We should also remember inflation is still high but coming down so it won't likely have a huge negative impact on consumer spending.)

Year-ahead inflation inched up from 2.9 in January to 3.0% in February

Immigration, Human Capital and $7 Trillion Economic Input

This video is thought provoking and provides a new perspective on immigration and some long tail benefits. Immigrants could contribute up tp $7 Trillion to our economy over the next 10 years. My thought was finding methods of stopping new illegal immigrants before we have a chance to vet them and procure the societal resources to transition new comers quickly into productive careers/jobs (i.e. training and sponsorship). 

One option is to find ways to transition immigrants most likely to stay on the tax payer rolls and contributing to the economy even if this ends up being on a short term basis. Likely controversial and it doesn't take away from the arguments for removal. Its more of an argument with what we are going to do with those who are already here and likely to stay versus what to do at the boarder or a determination of who stays and who goes (More bi-partisanship is needed.)

(If your asking me we should close the flood gates until we figure out what we are going to do in an orderly fashion.)

What I will notice from a theory standpoint was that even relatively unskilled labor from recent immigrants (Typically the first generation has less skills then later generations who become Americanized ) can increase the economy. We see how some countries like China have used low cost labor to their advantage (Labor intensive general skills) . The other methods is to increase technology adaptations with training/education in advanced manufacturing and other industries to increase the value of human capital at the center of a supply chain (High skill specialization)

02/16/2024 Update on Hate: Does Free Passes Indicate a Wider Problem of Hate?

There are those in society that support extremism and corruption and unfortunately not enough backstops to protect the public or targets when it does occur. While we know there are dark souls who engage in these behaviors we struggle in holding this corruption to account for one reason or another. Exclusionary beliefs in race, religion, and social networks can lead people down dark paths in thought and behavior. In the hypothetical example I have been using there are four broad category crimes that are committed 

1.) using threats of violence and hate narrative to enrich, exploit or harm, 

2.) targeting and violations of freedom of religion and speech, 

3.) failure to hold to account or correct when misbehaviors is found and 

4.) manipulating the sick and dying for money (Ultimately dozens of crimes)

The Hypothetical Hate Example: A group of bigots and bullies went after minorities in their town. Because of close affiliation with a corrupted network of officers they were encourage and emboldened to mock the family publicly and openly. They spread rumors, they put locals on hit lists, yelled disrespectful comments in front of children, use the term nigger (meaning slave) near black children, they even targeted these children with multiple stops, tried to arrest minorities on religious holidays, retaliated against legitimate complaints by the community, disrespected veterans and were given a free pass by the local justice system to freely engage in these behaviors despite concerns. Awareness of crimes didn't change the course of thought and behavior.

To continue with the example. The incident started when a rogue officer pulled over one of the targets within a short time of the family moving back to their ancestral homeland. Without just cause the officer asked the person to sit in his car next to his drug dog, asked whether he had bombs (a Muslim sounding name), and ask why someone like him would live around here. The target ensured the conversation was polite but the directive nature of the questions appeared to be fishing. As though the officer didn't expect the conversation to be polite and hopes of the success of his goal directive behavior had diminished. No ticket was issued because there was no justification for the stop. When asked the reason for the stop, the answer was, "your air freshener" with a dismissive tone and smirk (No issues there either and there was a witness in the car for part of it. Maybe they thought something suspicious and found out it was incorrect but the line of questioning seems misplaced at the time but makes more sense when you see a series of behaviors over a long period of time after. Its helpful to give benefit of doubt so one would notice the oddness but not necessarily have any context. 9 out of 10 times interactions are positive so one doesn't necessarily jump to conclusions quickly.

(Keep in mind that being pulled over doesn't mean anyone did anything wrong. i.e. over 5 years trying to arrest for volunteering, cashing one's own paycheck, pulling over kids, creating "investigations" to defame, so on and so forth in a way that would be crimes by all national and international metrics. They truly hated the person, family, and friends with a venom that cannot be rationally explained except through corruption and violent leaning extremism.

That person was a veteran and had history of standing for the law and for a better society. Even putting themselves at risk to report crimes in other places that panned out to be appropriate and substantive. When push comes to shove that person has a history of doing the right things. In this case, the officers and perpetrators behavior was a direct reflection of their values and not a reflection of the targets (..other then race, religion and awareness this person had knowledge of corruption and the goal was to silence.) Corruption was discovered and the officers and group were seeking to protect against discovery through hate oriented intimidation and threats of violence.

(If your asking me I love police 100% and civil rights 110%. Couldn't care less how everyone else thinks about these things. All institutions serve the people and not the other way around. I respect the institutional purpose of justice but take consideration to lack of accountability. Our current political situation has pitted police and human rights supporters against each other. Any system with this many complaints certainly can find ways to improve and human rights supporters can encourage effective police-community positive relations to ensure safe communities and streets. The big goals are the same but toxic souls break that focus.)

In this example, the laws did not matter as extreme bigotries were reward financially and socially making an up front statement that any minority or person that is different than the homogeneous ethnocentric group will be treated as less than human and with few rights. There was a direct attempt to circumvent those rights in full view of many other officers and the local system defaulted. Community complaints were high, had no safe place to be reported, and most understand the unwritten rules of the area. (Remember, within some places there is fear even of officers of turning in corruption because they don't want to be rejected. Thus, I support good officers and those who serve the public. That is what we should do! We must strengthen the culture as it will help in public perception, in functionality and in recruitment.)

I do not believe in this example that free pass hate systems should be allowed to exist and function within our current justice system. It breaks trust with the population and this example highlight that. To fix problems like this, one would need to have a commitment to our higher ideals and take efforts to ensure such behaviors do not continue forward. Its a walk the talk type issue. Extremism and hyper politics seek to restrict freedoms in an effort to exploit the pain of double standards now deeply embedded in the collective conscious.

The next generation has a different value system and are much more inclusive. Where our generation failed, I believe the next generation will do better to help fulfill our national purpose in human freedom and opportunity. They will understand that encouraging strong policing that keeps streets safe but does so in a universal manner with respect for human rights. 

Corruption is like a virus and spreads when unchecked. Its not about jail or losing jobs, its about accountability, correction, and improving to better protect the public and future victims; even when they are considered less than human. My suggestion for those exposed to hate and corruption is be positive, be polite, but be honest because that is what changes the broken aspects of systems society needs. If you keep telling the truth corruption must skirt around it or silence moral conscious through misuse of entrusted authority and further threats of violence and intimidation.

What we should learn is to work together as a society to create the strongest most trusted institutions we can that are effective and accurate. An evidence based results oriented approach to issues without worrying about the politics of it all. The goal should always to improve our community and our nation in a way that leads to future opportunities for the next generation. It is an oath we stand for nearly everyday but sometimes fail to understand its deeper meaning. 

Hypothetical question: How do you envision a high functioning police department with community support from all demographics of society? If you can envision it....you can create it! That should be the goal. Unfortunately, some of these hate behaviors might be so embedded that there is no will to correct or serve a greater purpose. I'm optimistic. The youth have perspectives that might push us into a universal democracy where the legacies of segregation don't carry into the unwritten rules of our lived experiences. A pro growth human capital oriented strategy for an environment that requires the highest performance to ensure national competitiveness.

*This is a hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only. Feel free to discount. Theoretical dribble dribble.

Thursday, February 15, 2024

The History of Applied Psychology in the US

Applied psychology is a beneficial field to become familiar with if one desires to manage and motivate people. What I like about this video is that it shows the growth in literary publications and psychological research slowly shifting from German oriented theory to an American practicality perspective. Science is an additive conversational  process where new cultural perspectives and knowledge can shift theory in new directions.

Applied psychology is a respectable field and is used everyday by industries and organizations to maximize human performance on an individual and group level. The Timeline of Applied Psychology

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Consumers Price Index Rose 0.3% and The Sky Hasn't Fallen! (Forecasting and Focus)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January (up 3.1% overall over 12 months). The stocks took a beating, the dark clouds came forward, and people ran back to their villages to shutter themselves inside and stay safe! Ok it wasn't that bad. Short term traders, economic hyper focus, and of course other issues that sort of keep us on the edge of our seats. Its mixed information and data that doesn't truly lean up or down. I would think more up yet inflation is still eating at people's paychecks and some economists have said we might experience a recession this year. A few countries are cutting their growth forecasts. We may be lucky and not have recession at all. Perhaps we might have an economic expansion.  We can try and forecast but often one only truly knows in hindsight in this current market. Its almost always a situation of more data needed but we have to do the best we can with the tools we have, and what we know right now, and what we may have learned from past (Interesting article in the Atlantic Convincing Economy related to economic feelings.)

One might wonder if the infrastructure improvements are heating up core inflation and what that heating up means for the speed of the economy, energy, manufacturing, and technology on a core transactional level. One would sort of need to look at each aspect of the index and its definition to grasp how the information was drawn. Definition Core CPI  Consider there appears to be a lot of mixed theory on Core Inflation it general indicates a potential issue but what that issue might be is still unknown. It may not all be bad if its a short term market adjustment. Core Inflation and GDP Relationship

Keep in mind that energy is going down but core inflation is going up. Just an interesting observation. What is Core Inflation Fed Reserve of San Fran 04' (old article)

(The theory I'm working on looks at things from a transactional speed-value-cluster level in terms of adaptation. It has been sort of ballpark correct but its not really worth anything yet. It might be someday if it gets developed. Maybe sell it on eBay for like $5 as a self-published book and make someone else rich! With spelling and grammar errors included for free! Also why we need to rebalance how things are done to ensure opportunities and maximum economic engagement. Strengthening the middle, entrepreneurial, and creative classes helps. I do it because I find problems interesting not because of I get a tangible benefit from it. Just saying :))

This is a great article and I think the author brought forward a solid analysis. I have read a few of these articles and like them because they are informative.

Beneath the Skin Wolf Street

 (With research one must seek out the emerging news and see how that fits with a model based on more historical controlled hindsight analysis that seeks to isolate causality. News leads the discussion on important topics and research determines the strength of possible associations. Read on a topic widely and you get an emerging literary study in real time that leads to insight into what some of the involved factors might be. Businesses must have up-to-date emerging knowledge to be nimble. Correlation and Casual. )

(As a sort of funny notice, look at the jump in auto insurance! I always wonder if my car insurance is market rate? 🤔😭)

Another article I recommend reading is Inflation Won't Go Away because it does help us put in perspective that inflation is still moving in a downward trajectory overall. There are bumps, blimps, and oddities that happen during that process. Sometimes we focus exclusively on small adjustments and then assign bigger importance then needed. Thinking trends with multiple data points. While we might create a theoretical understanding that may explain inflation, we must also take a wide angle lens to put those changes in context. My suggestion overall is look at the tree and then step back and look at the forest. If you also have the ability step back again and look at the whole ecosystem. Each focus level teaches you something different. 

The BLS publication CPI January 24,

"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment. 

The index for shelter continued to rise in January, increasing 0.6 percent and contributing over two thirds of the monthly all items increase. The food index increased 0.4 percent in January, as the food at home index increased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.5 percent over the month. In contrast, the energy index fell 0.9 percent over the month due in large part to the decline in the gasoline index." (BLS, Jan 24', pg1)