Showing posts with the label economic forecasting

Forecasting The Markets by Managing the Data Monster

Accurate forecasting data is paramount to successfully trending the market and creating strategic advantages. A paper by Bill Stringer discusses the use of big data programs and how this influences the success of the chemical industry. For the purposes of my own research, I am considering the merits of big data in proper market forecasting.  Big data can uncover information that is not easy to find or discern. The relationship between the data pieces offers an opportunity to find trends and information that is not contained in standalone measurements.   When organizations use big data well they can more accurately assess performance and variability to meet market trends.  The author believes that big data is the next frontier of nearly every economic sector. Companies will find ways to appropriately analyze large and complex data sets in both the private and public arenas. The ability to harness the data monster will allow for greater waves of growth, productivity and inn

Successful Economic Forecasting with the Bayesian Method

Gupta and Kabundi (2010) started with an interesting question on which macroeconomic models are most likely to predict economic growth and success. Decision-makers that have tools are better able to make current decisions that are likely to foster greater growth in the future. The researcher used emerging markets of South Africa but these same models may apply to economic hubs and the factors that predict their success.  Models are simply explanations that attempt to predict activities within the environment. Some models are more successful than others. Success is determined through a process of validity where multiple researchers over a period of time analyze the same phenomenon over and over in multiple ways to determine if the model makes sense.  Common data points in measuring economic development include per capita growth rate, consumer price index (CPI), inflation, the money market rate, and the growth rate of nominal effective exchange rates. These data points often