It has become increasingly apparent that Russia is unlikely to secure a decisive military victory in Ukraine (Negotiation or Land Grab Tactic). Now that they haven't secured a quick victory, lack full Chinese support , and economic havoc at home they are likely working on negotiating their way out of the situation with Plan B (Lack of China Support). I suspect Putin needs some type of win and must choose to double down on a failed strategy or negotiate his way out of it.
(I don't really know...I'm just trying to figure out the logic and how these situations are seen. Historians, academics, and researchers do this all the time.)
I suspect there is some pressure from China, Putin's inner circle supporters, and the Russian people to start negotiating a settlement. The military situation looks very bleak and his troops are beginning to falter and fall back. The quick victory didn't happen and there is little support for him to keep troops there economically or socially.
Here is the long-term damage that he may not have thought about in Plan A (The risk of using the same mental anchor to solve problems). Russia just withdrew itself in part from the world and the world economy (At least for some time.) and it may have rallied the U.S. to recognize some growing future threats (on a number of different levels) and could push the U.S. to develop further with more bi-partisan interest (Has the Iron Curtain been redrawn?). It may have also set pro-capitalist Oligarchs on a new line of thinking about who should be running the Russian government (Wow...that would be interesting! There are some incentives there for it.)
(These aren't facts but just a way to sort of look at what is happening and make sense of it. We will have to wait and see what actually happens. We can project but time tells us what actually happens. 🤔)
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