Things are heating up in Ukraine and we are often left wondering what is going on. Putin is getting older and may want to make a move to fulfill his hoped legacies. He may do so through negotiation or he may do so through invasion of Ukraine (Seems like he is setting up two options). He could be banking on our hyper politics, rising China, declining Europe and not yet mobilized U.S.. He may also see his country as loosing on the international stage but also sees a few opportunities to strengthen his position in alliance with a strong China acting as the U.S. counter balance. Russia has a history of "come backs" and he is hoping to tap that history to return what he sees as sphere of influence. (You can read a solid article on 'What does Putin want in Ukraine? The conflict explained')
Fuel is very important to the world economy but may only be as important from a supply standpoint for the next 15-20 years as alternative green methods are developed and commercialized. Russia may be trying to use its primary resources that is in demand today to place itself into an advantaged position for tomorrow. They may intuitively know they cannot compete in other economic arenas effectively at this time and want to use their advantages now to bolster their economic and regional position.
Are there options?
There are Economic, Military, and Diplomatic initiatives that can have influence but may not deter invasion if Russia is dead set on a plan. Of course not all options are good ones so we have to think through them. Someone would have to go through all the different scenarios to determine how they might play out in different situations. Yet, we can say that supporting Ukrainian's right to decide peacefully their future is important because all people have the right to self determination (In any direction they decide but do so through democratic principles.).
It is also helpful for the U.S. to think about what its future position and where it wants to go (We have struggled because politics became more important than national development in many cases.). We see that the world is changing and there are powerful actors coming on the chess board. We thus must think long term about our own future health and vitality. That means watching these scenarios and thinking about how thy impact our future ability to be prepared as a state that functions both independently and with our allies on multiple levels (Meaning, if we see from these situations where we can improve ourselves we should do so by becoming a learning organization/nation.)
It should be remembered that these are ideas, unvetted, and perhaps even useless. Some are direct to the situation and some are not direct at all and are really just thinking about how to improve ourselves. The situation might end up impacting longer term strategies that may not be advantageous for Russia (I'm just sort of looking at this from a neutral standpoint.)
-Europe-US to bolster forces and bring show of unified force through NATO.
-Make Ukraine treacherous territory that is hard to invade or keep.
-Provide support, training, and arms to Ukraine.
-Strengthen U.S. Manufacturing and Data Infrastructure
-Put pressure on China to not feed the issue or provide support.
-Start finding new fuel sources for Europe (Might include U.S. shale and other sources.).
-Level-K American politicians work together to solve problems and strengthen nation.
-Diplomatic effort to have countries support Ukrainian sovereignty.
-Sanctions mixed with long term strategies make sense.
-Enhance our human capital through education, inclusion, business and development (That may also include giving high creative people and gifted people the right to fully develop. Not race or religion specific.)
-Maximize our current resources to maximize our options and outcomes.
-Rapid innovation economic systems that push U.S industries to top tier market positions.
-Unified effort to stop extremism in the U.S. and support positive dialogue to create universal understandings.
-Improve cyber security, intelligence and cyber warfare capabilities.
-Develop our green energy and advanced technologies.
-Strengthen our social media outlets to ensure that they are not easily manipulated form outside the U.S.
-Be open to conversations with Russia to try and understand their essential needs/wants. Open markets, frank/honest conversation, and long-term win-win situations can sometimes come from directly engaging in diplomatic efforts. So many times I have seen seemingly lose-lose or win-lose situations but once I delved into them I found a silver lining win-win. Can that still apply to international conflict? Can't say one way or another whether or not that will apply here.
Negotiation tactic or land grab? Probably a little of both.
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