Delta County Commissioner Meeting (04/09/2024) A Sense of Community

There is an awful lot going on in this video from some good things to some some eyebrow raisers. I'm a centralist/rationalist in politics so to me the best path forward is to work on creating a sense of community (This is also why I think the dysfunction of outside politics or ulterior interests should not be brought here. Party neutral statement! Smelly socks are smelly socks.<<<<Just in case you wondered why they smell.). 

You can read a study on creating a Sense of Community and Community Building.

Encouraging people to anchor to central ideas and goals that resonate with different members of the local peoples is beneficial. Likewise, focusing on shared futures is another goal that has long lasting appeal. A type of over the horizon thinking. Everything should be seen as temporary so in a year from now things might look different (I think positive as I'm a rational optimist!). 

Growing New Plants This Year and Thinking about National Garden Stats

Developed a green property this year with a bunch of different plants and foods. The experimental half shade no irrigation raised garden box produced most of what was planted last year so I am doing it again this year. There were a few crops such as pumpkins that didn't grow fully and a few smaller carrots in one row. Small growth on some plants is likely related to how I organized the box. I built another raised grow box out of some lumber I had sitting around and planted that one as well. 

A few things I'm thinking about are, 

1.) Only native hardy plants to MI. 

2.) Planting pattern. Avoid overcrowding or incorrect shading.

3.) Allowing roots to tap beyond the box for more water if needed. I changed the barrier on one to light mulch to see if that will help. I did nothing to the first box because its underground barrier likely doesn't exist this year and is degrading back into the soil. 

A few things I put in the yard are a mini honey crisp apple orchard, raspberries, corn, beats, carrots, lettuce, spinach, onions, and forgot squash (I might put some if I remember). Along my fence I'm putting in grape vines. A few new rose plants where I can't get anything else to grow. 

Ruby Home provides some interesting Garden Stats just in case you want to understand gardening in the U.S.

-55% of U.S. Households have a garden. 

-100-200 square feet can feed a person year round. 

-Average garden is 600 square feet and earns $600.

-US is one of three top gardening places. 

And I got a visitor. Looks like a fox snake. (BTW I was told you could use moth balls and that isn't true. I was going to use them and read somewhere you can't do that so they are being disposed of. Beware of wives tails! I went on the hunt for information and I didn't find much other then they can't be used that way. Not everything people say is true! They also say they don't keep snakes away.)  

Grabbed him by the tail and moved over 
to the woods.

IMF World Economic Outlook-Steady and Slow-A Turtle over a Hurdle!

The U.S. is still doing pretty well and it said to have doubled the growth rate of other G7 peers. The IMF released their World Outlook showing some positives and negatives at the same time but the general lay of the land is the U.S. and emerging economies will grow at a faster pace when compared to mature systems. For now it looks like the U.S. is doing well and for the near future should continue to do so. The rest of the world is growing a little slower. G7 states are growing at about half the U.S. The global economy might be described as a turtle over a hurdle. 

World Economic Outlook, April 2024: Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence

Turtle over a Hurdle Economy As a hobby I'm playing
 around with sayings. 
You can find the
unedited version in
The Wooded Path Gallery
Not particularly my best
photo but I do sort of put them
in a gallery in case someone wants
one. Everyone once in a while
someone buys one for a few bucks.
I try and give much to charity. 
50% is goal.

-World economy to grow 3.2% in 2024 and 2025. 

-Acceleration for advanced economies moving from 1.6% in 2023, 1.7% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.

-Global growth is projected at 3.1% for next 5 years. 

-Global inflation to decline 6.8% 2023, 5.9% 2024 and 4.5% in 2025.

-Advance economies returning to inflation targets sooner than emerging markets.

-A few comments on demographic drag. This is why I encourage technology advancement and universal human capital development.

January 2024 IMF Global Outlook Full Report

The Financial Times has some interesting articles sometimes, US to grow at double the rate of G7 peers this year, says IMF. We are like half of Emerging Markets and that is frustrating. It is also why I'm thinking of how to simulate rapid butterfly innovation with a transactional cluster theory. In my perspective, if you can use your much more advanced infrastructure to pinpoint innovation for needed industries in the right mix you can theoretically create totally new innovative products that are adapted by multiple industries based on a Schumpeterian innovation approach. That adaptation leads to greater overall wealth and national competitiveness. 

CNN highlights that there are some risks for overheating in the U.S. economy. Its of course possible but I think there are some other things going on as well that are not measured well by traditional economic models. IMF raises growth forecast for ‘overheated’ US economy and urges caution on rate cuts

An interesting idea that the economy is booming because of interest rates. While I may or may not agree, I haven't looked into it that far, I can say that its interesting to think about a reverse cause. What If Fed Rate Hikes Are Actually Sparking US Economic Boom?

Update on Hate: Hate as a System (Economic and Social Renaissance)

Hate is destructive to our society and to the world at large. It has caused a lot of mayhem and warped outcomes that could help humanity. Those who relish in using hate for personal and political power risk galvanizing the rest of society/humanity. Engaging in hate on an unofficial and social level still exists creating difficulties so we have some work to do (USA Today-Hate Crimes Up) Worse, mix that with some corruption and you might find that charging up that metaphorical hill to protect universal American values is challenging at best (Protecting for all Americans no matter their race or religion.). The good news is that the tide is turning and the winds have changed making hate a lesser worthy and strategic path. 

As a nation we must stand together to ensure our generational values are carried forward. Protection of democracy, broad based capitalism, and an inclusive society based on human/civil rights are central to what defines us as a people and a nation. This is why we have the longest running experiment in history. The young now have a firm hand on the torch (The other hand by the older generations) with their new ideas, still developing skill, and love of freedom. They share a commitment to our national strength, embedded deep values into their generation's collective conscious and stand united in furthering our universal American values. 

United We Stand Photo in
The Wooded Pathway Gallery

(Universal American values are related to a universal democracy that could be the next stage of national development in a highly diverse society where human capital from all different types of people are maximized for the benefit of the whole. Hate groups and distorted politics impact that but also provide opportunities to overcome such challenges. We learn from adversity. If we overcome that challenge with an upswing on technology we might be the first nation to achieve two fronts; economic renaissance and social renaissance. As the resilience of our economy has shown, we may have bumped up in an economic platform. Now we must do the same socially to create an inclusive society not based in the hard rules of law but on deeper natural connectivity. Socio-economic growth comes from maximizing human capital, and technology tools thereof, to help economies grow while hate breaks down the foundations that allow free commerce to thrive. Most would opt for an inclusive thriving society; a destructive few would not.)

First read, Hate as a system: Examining hate crimes and hate groups as state level moderators on the impact of online and offline racism on mental health

What you often find is that hate is social and it designed to raise pressure on the targets through group bullying and other types of nefarious behaviors. Once a hate narrative is created such groups act through chatter and microaggressions (if macro aggressions didn't work well). Normal defense and avoidance by targets are used as justification to engage in further hate, ostracization, and blocking of opportunities. (The central point is who is causing the problems? Try avoid blaming the victim even though that seems to be the most easiest bigoted choice.)

Let me give you a hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only. A group associated with a number of corrupted officials spread hate rumors, launched a 100 person plus group of supporters. damaged kids, engage in threats, manipulate the sick to enrich themselves, violated the rights of the targets and much more. They tried to restrict targets from employment, social connectivity, and public service to further their homogeneous distortions. In this example it went on because there was a lack of respect for deeper American values (This is why it should be illegal and enforced on people who continuously further the hate narrative or act on that hate.).

In this example normally such behaviors would not be acceptable but there were a number of underlining catalysts that were not addressed for years (even decades) because of spotty oversight. Those that came forward with complaints were quickly retaliated against making it appear that the concern was not the safety of the community but the protection of a clan. Rights of their fellow Americans (60% of society they view as second class) were mocked with a roll of the eyes and wink & nod justice. Corruption in this example made them immune hinting at two different systems and legal structures based in race, religion and social connections (There are good people in the world reconnecting these groups back into one.). 

Here are my thoughts and they may not be popular. I believe that our American values transcend all groups and people and that the quality of a person is based not in their racial, religious, or political affiliations but in their inner values, their contribution to society, and their willingness to do what is right and good for society. That is not something all of us believe, but it is something most of us believe and when we don't walk the talk, trust in institutions may decline (There are many seeking to protect these institutions through adaptive enhancement for the next generation. Do good and it will always turn out well). We as a nation and those in the next generation are standing firm to the commitment of a greater American cause.

Our society needs new ways of looking at problems and they need to reorient toward our central true north values. It is not always easy to think for yourself or do the right thing (the American thing! 💁) and that comes with great benefits for society but often detractors for those with a moral conscious. Our nation will overcome hate because the other options are not so positive. I have great faith in the value of most, but am cautious of the values of some. There is a type of curse for thinking for yourself and not acting like an animal (Business Insider: The Curse of Intelligence)

The economic and social renaissance is at our doors step? I advocate for embracing the future, understanding our present, and reflecting on the past as the greatest path to wisdom.

"I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past!"

Thomas Jefferson 

*This is a hypothetical example and discussion for illustrative purposes only. It is meant to encourage thoughtful idea generation and greater awareness for living by our values and connecting communities around shared principles and goals. A type of thought experiment on freedom of religion and freedom of helpful speech. It makes no distinction among different types of people or one political party over another. It is meant to be a discussion on universalism. I thought this article on Universalism was interesting and how our values can appeal globally.

Small Business Filings Up Nationally: Escanaba as an Example of Growth Opportunity

U.S. Small business filings are up significantly and that could have an impact on the overall success of communities as well as the long term innovative health of the national economy. For example, towns like Escanaba Michigan are swinging upward in investment, infrastructure and growth. That could be furthered by drawing in entrepreneurs and investment. As an example, Escanaba's downtown could benefit by using the upswing in small business to further local growth.

Keep in mind that our country does need to encourage new wealth generation among the middle class and working class. Concentration of wealth can be dispersed in a capitalistic society by helping entrepreneurs and hard working individuals maximize their opportunities and outcomes. It creates a win-win for social mobility and long term national economic health. 

Build Your Sand Castle Escanaba MI.
In Wooded Pathway Gallery

Sometimes reaching out to people with a certain amount to invest, i.e. 100K, finding them a reasonably priced building downtown, and providing some grants, low interest loan access, can go a long way in spurring economic revival. Of course all of that would come with a few guarantees they maintain their business and develop it locally. 

One of the essential issues is finding mechanisms to reach out to these entrepreneurs using social media, targeted advertising, investment outlets, government agencies, etc. The same could apply to any small town with similar attributes similar to Escanaba's. See Delta County Chamber of Commerce and Escanaba

Some General Small Business Stuff: Small business improves innovation. It appears small business owners are optimistic.

-Small business index is steady with some optimism. Concerns over inflation. Index Remains Steady As Views of Economy Drift Upwards

-Small business owners are feeling more optimistic in 2024. As long as we’re in a vibe economy, at least small businesses are feeling more optimistic in 2024

 -Good ideas can come from anywhere and encouraging more inclusiveness and new ideas from diverse socio-cognitive levels leads to drawing in unique ways of looking at problems and solutions. Inclusive Innovation for U.S. Economic Growth and Resiliency

-Small business can help in creating innovation and stronger national defense. The Small Businesses Leading In Defense Innovation

-If you have a small business idea and would like to submit for funding consider National Science Foundation Seed Funding

U.S. Small Business Filings are Up: Upward trending filings should lead to further innovation and growth in about 3 years as such businesses gain footing and clients. It take some time to move from start-up to profit, to maximization. See Research on The 5 Stages of Small Business Growth

You can read some interesting Business Formation Stats to obtain additional details.

-Monthly average new business filings is 440,000

-Business filings are 90% higher than pre Pandemic levels. 

-Substantial growth among women, Latinos and Black business owners. 

-Agriculture down. Retail trade, management of companies and utilities up. 

Census Gov. has lots of information that includes inventory, trade, manufacturing, etc. so one can gain an understanding of the key points. Of particular interest in the overall economic indicators HERE. (You should really check this stuff out because you can get a snap shot of the economy.)

I have been talking a little about the platform change that may have occurred during COVID. New technology and shifts in infrastructure often spur economic renaissance in history. I'm making a mental note of the change in business applications and how that might impact future innovation in the mid and and long run. You can check new applications by state HERE.

Source

Source

Source: Harvard 5 Stages of Business

Factors Impacting Volunteer Firefighting: Balance to Serve (Some Advice)

“Nothing is stronger than the heart of a volunteer.”

 Lt. Col. James H. Doolittle, April 18, 1942,

Volunteer firefighting is very important for our nation and is becoming increasingly important as global warming and weather patterns change. Much of the nation is loosing its volunteer firefighters and some of the reasons likely relate to the overall competing commitments but it could also be part of how these volunteer firefighters are seen and managed. A few tid bits of knowledge below as a firefighter. You can see the psychology of management kick in. 

First, read the 2022 dissertation on firefighting and the basic discussion points.

Understanding Factors Impacting Volunteer Firefighters' Work, Family, and Volunteer Balance to Serve Family, and Volunteer Balance to Serve

A few discussion points in the study:

-Volunteer Firefighting is on decline. 

-Work and family obligations get in the way.

-67% of all firefighters are volunteer/part-time.

-Volunteer firefighters move beyond expectations and have internal motivation.

-(Side point: Volunteer firefighting isn't a paid occupation which means it is a labor of love. Others studies have shown that such fire fighters come with prosocial values and want to help their communities. That is a strength and it should be showcased.)

A few recommendations for organizations in the study: 

-Consider individual firefighter needs.

-Over strictness may cause issues.

-Recognize triggers such as work and family to keep them involved even if they have competing activities.

(Let me also add that personalities are important. The news is full of fire departments that dissipated because of toxic personalities and interpersonal conflict. Improving management abilities and people skills can help in ensuring the best managed departments and retainment of fire fighters. Make sure everyone has the same goals and is willing to build an environment where others thrive. )

A few recommendations from the study for the community:

-Many organizations may be strong on management and poor on leadership. 

-Recognize the commitment that volunteers make and support that. 

-(I'm going to add that it is important to include as many different people in these organizations as possible because the world is much more diverse than the typical talent pool. Reaching out to these large communities opens a whole new fertile recruitment grounds. I know from experience these groups will engage if the culture of departments are inclusive and they were encouraged and welcomed. If your departments are not diverse in a diverse area than something can be improved.)

-(Let me also add that many organizations do not know how to market and inform the community of their positive actions. There is official and unofficial marketing. All departments need policies and those policies should encourage community engagement and connectivity through social media, marketing, events, fund raising, parades, etc. Where policies are not aligned with the needs of the community by being too strict, we may find support waning due to lack of openness and lack of community connection. Basically, get out there and share your stuff but be respectful of scenes, privacy, good taste, and other. Being a fully develop person means you know what is appropriate and what is not.)

A couple of other points:

The study helps highlight the deeper motivations of firefighters. If you have management abilities and reasonable physical ability you may want to consider joining your local volunteer fire department. Its a very rewarding experience. With new thoughts and ideas we may be able to reverse the trend. It is one way to train on leadership in a real life scenario. Put your leadership and management skills to work. 

I'm looking for grants for a local fire department so if you have corporate donations monies and would like to help fund firefighting and training equipment let me know and I will point you to a great organization that could use it. Reach out to the right contact form. You can do your part and ask your corporate liaison if they donate to first responders. Consider those in your area or an organization like ours. 

Can Human Capital and Technology Improve Economic Prosperity? IMF Thinks So! (Innovative Transactional Theory Development)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects that GDP will decline for some nations in the mid term future. On a global level, there appears to be a slowdown in growth, and could impact investments in human capital and technology. Further, low growth and high-interest rates might make some debt unsustainable. The IMF suggests tackling labor, capital, and allocation, known as Total Factor Productivity (TFP) because it was responsible for approximately half of the declines since the pandemic. 

But wait...there is a silver lining......

(While they don't say this the U.S. was somewhat of an outlier because it is growing and with the right policies can grow further past a 5 year projection. i.e. midterm.)

As a person working on a rapid innovation transactional theory that relies in part on technology and advanced skilled labor (education or training), I agree with the concept that access to education and technological advancement (innovation) to better to allocate our human capital talents with emerging technology is important. Thus, we start seeing a similarity in concept forming across various entities and different research pieces.

To me, we can improve labor capital growth by encouraging accessibility, cost, and quality of education to help people update their skills for rapidly changing jobs that will emerge from new technologies. We should also focus on innovation (i.e. things like transactional cluster theories and other innovation supporters such as grants, research, academic-industry-community growth, etc.) to build on top of our updated infrastructure so as to boost the productivity of the whole nation in a way that fosters upward lift in the nation's advanced manufacturing global value chain.

World Must Prioritize Productivity Reforms to Revive Medium-Term Growth

Source

Source