Wednesday, April 17, 2024

IMF World Economic Outlook-Steady and Slow-A Turtle over a Hurdle!

The U.S. is still doing pretty well and it said to have doubled the growth rate of other G7 peers. The IMF released their World Outlook showing some positives and negatives at the same time but the general lay of the land is the U.S. and emerging economies will grow at a faster pace when compared to mature systems. For now it looks like the U.S. is doing well and for the near future should continue to do so. The rest of the world is growing a little slower. G7 states are growing at about half the U.S. The global economy might be described as a turtle over a hurdle. 

World Economic Outlook, April 2024: Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence

Turtle over a Hurdle Economy As a hobby I'm playing
 around with sayings. 
You can find the
unedited version in
The Wooded Path Gallery
Not particularly my best
photo but I do sort of put them
in a gallery in case someone wants
one. Everyone once in a while
someone buys one for a few bucks.
I try and give much to charity. 
50% is goal.

-World economy to grow 3.2% in 2024 and 2025. 

-Acceleration for advanced economies moving from 1.6% in 2023, 1.7% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.

-Global growth is projected at 3.1% for next 5 years. 

-Global inflation to decline 6.8% 2023, 5.9% 2024 and 4.5% in 2025.

-Advance economies returning to inflation targets sooner than emerging markets.

-A few comments on demographic drag. This is why I encourage technology advancement and universal human capital development.

January 2024 IMF Global Outlook Full Report

The Financial Times has some interesting articles sometimes, US to grow at double the rate of G7 peers this year, says IMF. We are like half of Emerging Markets and that is frustrating. It is also why I'm thinking of how to simulate rapid butterfly innovation with a transactional cluster theory. In my perspective, if you can use your much more advanced infrastructure to pinpoint innovation for needed industries in the right mix you can theoretically create totally new innovative products that are adapted by multiple industries based on a Schumpeterian innovation approach. That adaptation leads to greater overall wealth and national competitiveness. 

CNN highlights that there are some risks for overheating in the U.S. economy. Its of course possible but I think there are some other things going on as well that are not measured well by traditional economic models. IMF raises growth forecast for ‘overheated’ US economy and urges caution on rate cuts

An interesting idea that the economy is booming because of interest rates. While I may or may not agree, I haven't looked into it that far, I can say that its interesting to think about a reverse cause. What If Fed Rate Hikes Are Actually Sparking US Economic Boom?



No comments:

Post a Comment