The blog discusses current affairs and development of national economic and social health through unique idea generation. Consider the blog a type of thought experiment where ideas are generated to be pondered but should never be considered definitive as a final conclusion. It is just a pathway to understanding and one may equally reject as accept ideas as theoretical dribble. New perspectives, new opportunities, for a new generation. “The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.”—Thomas Jefferson
President Biden discusses infrastructure bill in the video below. You can read the bill fact sheet HERE. I'm not going to get into all the controversy around big government spending. I'm of the mindset that if you are going to spend money you should make every penny count and create as many "net positives" as possible. The goal should always be to hedge and include business investments to maximize and stretch those dollars. If it does..."great" if it doesn't "not great". Waste in any form should be carefully watched.
In general, we should avoid government solving our problems. We should be as independent as possible and solve our problems at the closest place to community decision making. At the same time, government sets larger national policy and in turn will steer resources where leaders feel it should go (We are facing some threats right now and must do something no matter who is the president. So if we are going to spend money then lets have everyone aim for a emerging digital transformation/economic reemergence vision to maximize cross structure efforts. i.e. synergy.).
We do need to do something to ensure we are staying competitive and what we do now will be fundamental to where we are in 10 or 20 (even 2 years and 5 years out). Most experts are under agreement that we need better infrastructure, are behind on digital development, need to update our military, etc... its now probably the time to start doing that. There are likely a number of different ways to update nationally but at this moment I think this is the leading plan offered. (As a process of watching and understanding politics and making some personal observations I think this is one of the reasons why the bill was separated from some of the other less "sellable" ideas/parts from a bi-partisan standpoint. I'm not a political expert...just watching, learning and sharing. Many would come to different conclusions I'm sure. Its a conversation of sorts.)
Here is the speech no matter which side of the discussion you are on......
The IRS made a few changes this year you should be aware of that will impact how much your putting away into your 401K and Roth IRA. If you haven't started doing this I suspect you need to start thinking about retirement and putting money away (Age dependent). There are no real safety nets when we look out 20 years to when many in my generation begin to retire. So...expect to take care of business now so your not stressed later (time is your friend if you start now.)
The other day one my children received his first pay check....I gave him advice. Its not great advice but its reasonable. I heard the same thing but didn't understand its importance in my late teens. Take 10% and start putting it away every check. If you do that now he will be a wealthy man by the time he is say 50 years old.
Far too many people wait too long to think about retirement.....and then its too late.
I get it and I been there. Kids need things, car is broke, concerned about bills, etc..... The best way to to this in hindsight is to have it taken out right away when you get paid before you receive a penny. Life is easier when you have retirement and a savings cushion.
I'm not an accountant so that is my disclaimer....but I think its helpful to share a few thoughts.
Good news for employment. More people moved back to work as unemployment dipped to 4.6% and payroll rose by 531,000. There are still people not working so there is some room for employment situation to change. At present there are 6 million people who want a job but not in the labor force and there is 1.3 million people who are prevented from working because of the pandemic.
What is interesting is that 11.6% of workers are teleworking. Some of them have returned back to work but that constitutes a different sort of labor market. It is a virtual market where there are different work arrangements and rules that might apply. It also takes different kind of skill.
The pandemic tested our capacity to move online quickly and some are going to return back to the normal face-to-face way of conducting business. With infrastructure improvements and increased online daily activities more and more of the population will move online thereby shifting the market into a Digital Era. That is thinking more on a long term trend.
We are also likely to find increased use of AI and robotics to deal with labor shortages. Wages should rise and so should tech investment in heavy labor jobs like warehousing, delivery, etc.... The average worker will need different kind of user tech skills that wasn't inherent in jobs of the past (...likely putting pressure on higher education.). Basic jobs will require the ability to deal with technology that includes use of tools and high tech industrial machinery.
Despite technology busting corruption still relies on reporting it. Need a quarter?
Detroit was a place where things couldn't get done unless you greased palms and know the right people (Ok...to be fair its not all like that...but there is a lot of incidents that raise a concern on a macro level.). It seemed to be "who you know" versus "what you know" that got things done and got you the job. People believe it has something to do with Detroit itself but that is not true. Plenty of people in Detroit, in the "burbs" and from other places seemed to think Detroit was "open for business"....dirty hands all around!
As with all things there is a balance that must be played. When it comes to public corruption we have responsibilities to go after as much crime as we can to ensure that government is clean and centered on the will of its people. As soon as it becomes centered on the city-burb "elite", criminal networks, or any other group/system hidden from pubic view the city declines, resources dry up, and hope dissipates. Detroit made a come back and then got bogged down again by the "culture of corruption". To free the system means to clean out the root causes and find a method of bringing back our manufacturing, our innovation, and our opportunities to environments that are ready to reform to attract international interest and in turn improve opportunities (Detroit was part of the reasons I started looking at clusters.).
I have been reading about this topic in Detroit (..and casually some of the mechanisms of the shadow market such as hiding behind intentionally antiquated bureaucratic systems and formalized/hidden social structures) on and off since 2011/12 because its a recurring bubbling theme. You can read an interesting article, 'Feds charge fourth person in Detroit corruption investigation of towing industry' (As a side note a free press in a country helps reduce corruption by exposing wrong doing. Its important to maximize freedom of the press to help ensure healthy exchange of ideas....and that comes with responsibilities.).
Not 100% sure on what causes corruption in society and why it occurs more in some places and less in other places. 🤔To quench my curiosity I looked at a study called 'Causes and Effects of Corruption: What has Past Decade's Empirical Research Taught us?. Its interesting because there are some markers for corruption that are apparent and we should be able to avoid them as a society. The researcher found, "Research on this topic and the implementation of an effective regulatory policy, suitable codes of conduct, political and bureaucratic transparency, and effective anticorruption measures can help to mitigate the dissemination of corruption" (Diamon, 2017, pg. 17). Ok cool.....but then....
What I thought was of particular interest was that when you read the study you sort of get a picture of how our divisions (racial, religious, political, ideological, etc...almost any major societal difference) can be exploited by people(...and by extension countries) for gain. It doesn't matter if your in Detroit or way way up north in a small town (i.e. such as 29K disappearing) the effects of corruption can be devastating to communities and break down trust in government. Integrity and adherence by all members to certain ethical rules is important for society to function at its optimum. Any great nation must be one in which there is low corruption and high transparency to ensure continued public support and the ability to adjust as the environment requires it. See Moral Character, Whistle Blowers, Power of Being, Business Ethics
Dimant, E. (2017) Causes and Effects of Corruption: What has Past Decade's Empirical Research Taught us? A Survey January 2017. Journal of Economic Surveys 32(2) DOI:10.1111/joes.12198
The White House Released a White House Fact Sheet and the White House Vaccine Report. There is lots of things going on around this so I'm just going to say as an employer you want to be aware of changes in legislative factors and determine how they impact your business. There are going to be some legal challenges of course but being aware of changes helps you be prepared to address them when the rules take effect.
A couple of bullet points...1. employers with over 100 employees need vaccinations and 2. those who don't have them will need weekly negative tests.
I will have to look closer but I'm assuming that also means online employees as well. 🤷 In the Digital Era we must now contend with two sort of different definitions of employees; ground and online with different work situations.
I put the Fact Sheet below and highlighted a few areas.
New OSHA and CMS Rules Mean Two-Thirds of All Workers Now Covered by Vaccination Rules
Thanks to President Biden’s focus on getting Americans vaccinated, 70 percent of adult Americans are now fully vaccinated—up from less than one percent when the President took office. This is significant progress, made possible by a vaccinations program that made shots free and convenient for months. But more vaccinations are needed to save lives, protect the economy, and accelerate the path out of the pandemic. To that end, in July, President Biden began rolling out vaccination requirements for federal employees and contractors and calling on employers to do the same. Thousands of organizations across the country have answered the President’s call, and vaccination requirements have already helped reduce the number of unvaccinated Americans by approximately 40 percent since July.
Today, the Biden Administration is announcing the details of two policies to fight COVID-19 that will drive even more progress and result in millions of Americans getting vaccinated, protecting workers, preventing hospitalization, saving lives, and strengthening the economy.
First, the Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is announcing the details of a requirement for employers with 100 or more employees to ensure each of their workers is fully vaccinated or tests for COVID-19 on at least a weekly basis. The OSHA rule will also require that these employers provide paid-time for employees to get vaccinated, and ensure all unvaccinated workers wear a face mask in the workplace. OSHA has a strong 50-year record of requiring employers to take common sense actions to prevent workers from getting sick or injured on the job. This rule will cover 84 million employees.
Second, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) at the Department of Health and Human Services is announcing the details of its requirement that health care workers at facilities participating in Medicare and Medicaid are fully vaccinated. The rule applies to more than 17 million workers at approximately 76,000 health care facilities, including hospitals and long-term care facilities.
The Administration has previously implemented policies requiring millions of federal employees and federal contractors to be fully vaccinated. To make it easy for businesses and workers to comply, the Administration is announcing today that the deadline for workers to receive their shots will be the same for the OSHA rule, the CMS rule, and the previously-announced federal contractor vaccination requirement. Employees falling under the ETS, CMS, or federal contractor rules will need to have their final vaccination dose – either their second dose of Pfizer or Moderna, or single dose of Johnson & Johnson – by January 4, 2022. OSHA is also clarifying that it will not apply its new rule to workplaces covered by either the CMS rule or the federal contractor vaccination requirement. And, both OSHA and CMS are making clear that their new rules preempt any inconsistent state or local laws, including laws that ban or limit an employer’s authority to require vaccination, masks, or testing.
The Administration is calling on all employers to ensure that as many of their workers are vaccinated as quickly as possible. As detailed in a recent White House report, vaccination requirements work and are good for the economy. Vaccination requirements have increased vaccination rates by more than 20 percentage points – to over 90 percent – across a wide range of businesses and organizations. According to Wall Street analysts, vaccination requirements could result in as many as 5 million American workers going back to work, and a survey of prominent, independent economists found unanimous agreement that vaccination requirements will “promote a faster and stronger economic recovery.”
Today’s announcements include:
New Vaccination Requirement for Employers With 100 or More Employees: OSHA is issuing a COVID-19 Vaccination and Testing Emergency Temporary Standard (ETS) to require employers with 100 or more employees (i.e., “covered employers”) to:
Get Their Employees Vaccinated by January 4th and Require Unvaccinated Employees to Produce a Negative Test on at Least a Weekly Basis: All covered employers must ensure that their employees have received the necessary shots to be fully vaccinated – either two doses of Pfizer or Moderna, or one dose of Johnson & Johnson – by January 4th. After that, all covered employers must ensure that any employees who have not received the necessary shots begin producing a verified negative test to their employer on at least a weekly basis, and they must remove from the workplace any employee who receives a positive COVID-19 test or is diagnosed with COVID-19 by a licensed health care provider. The ETS lays out the wide variety of tests that comply with the standard. Given that vaccines are safe, free, and the most effective way for workers to be protected from COVID-19 transmission at work, the ETS does not require employers to provide or pay for tests. Employers may be required to pay for testing because of other laws or collective bargaining agreements.
Pay Employees for the Time it Takes to Get Vaccinated: All covered employers are required to provide paid-time for their employees to get vaccinated and, if needed, sick leave to recover from side effects experienced that keep them from working.
Ensure All Unvaccinated Employees are Masked: All covered employers must ensure that unvaccinated employees wear a face mask while in the workplace.
Other Requirements and Compliance Date: Employers are subject to requirements for reporting and recordkeeping that are spelled out in the detailed OSHA materials available here. While the testing requirement for unvaccinated workers will begin after January 4th, employers must be in compliance with all other requirements – such as providing paid-time for employees to get vaccinated and masking for unvaccinated workers – on December 5th. The Administration is calling on all employers to step up and make these changes as quickly as possible.
New Vaccination Requirements for Health Care Workers: CMS is requiring workers at health care facilities participating in Medicare or Medicaid to have received the necessary shots to be fully vaccinated – either two doses of Pfizer or Moderna, or one dose of Johnson & Johnson – by January 4th. The rule covers approximately 76,000 health care facilities and more than 17 million health care workers – the majority of health care workers in America – and will enhance patient safety in health care settings. The rule applies to employees regardless of whether their positions are clinical or non-clinical and includes employees, students, trainees, and volunteers who work at a covered facility that receives federal funding from Medicare or Medicaid. It also includes individuals who provide treatment or other services for the facility under contract or other arrangements. Among the facility types covered by the rule are hospitals, ambulatory surgery centers, dialysis facilities, home health agencies, and long-term care facilities. Today’s action will help provide patients assurance about the vaccination status of those delivering care, create a level playing field across health care facilities, and help to address challenges facilities have faced with staff sickness and quarantines impacting delivery of care.
Streamlining Implementation and Setting One Deadline Across Different Vaccination Requirements: The rules released today ensure employers know which requirements apply to which workplaces. Federal contractors may have some workplaces subject to requirements for federal contractors and other workplaces subject to the newly-released COVID-19 Vaccination and Testing ETS. To make it easy for all employers to comply with the requirements, the deadline for the federal contractor vaccination requirement will be aligned with those for the CMS rule and the ETS. Employees falling under the ETS, CMS, or federal contractor rules will need to have their final vaccination dose – either their second dose of Pfizer or Moderna, or single dose of Johnson & Johnson – by January 4, 2022. This will make it easier for employers to ensure their workforce is vaccinated, safe, and healthy, and ensure that federal contractors implement their requirements on the same timeline as other employers in their industries. And, the newly-released ETS will not be applied to workplaces subject to the federal contractor requirement or CMS rule, so employers will not have to track multiple vaccination requirements for the same employees.
Driving down a winding state highway I came across this old shed. Couldn't resist...I stopped and took a photo. You can tell the artist really took their time. Thought I would share incase it inspires anyone.
The Federal Reserve sent out the following press release. You can find the actual release HERE. The areas I highlighted below are of special interest. What we find is that inflationary pressures are mounting so reducing the liquidity may help in restoring a level of economic equilibrium. The problem with large macro economics is that there are lots of confounding variables working with and against each other. The inability to easily draw one to one causation means that as of yet economics is an imperfect science. It will be hard to determine precisely how much influence is inflation, supply chain, etc...so we look toward the bigger trends.
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.
With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months, but the summer's rise in COVID-19 cases has slowed their recovery. Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory. Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have contributed to sizable price increases in some sectors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.
The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations and an easing of supply constraints are expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation. Risks to the economic outlook remain.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In light of the substantial further progress the economy has made toward the Committee's goals since last December, the Committee decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning later this month, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $70 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $35 billion per month. Beginning in December, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $60 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $30 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook. The Federal Reserve's ongoing purchases and holdings of securities will continue to foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.
