Friday, December 23, 2022

Billerud Needs Escanaba and Escanaba Needs Billerud!

The mill needs new life and the life of that mill is limited by the current market. Billerud has an opportunity to not only connect with the community but be part of history in the making. This town has lots of potential and the town is attracting increasing interest. Billerud is taking a historical landmark mill and bringing it into a modern digital era that supplies boxes for packaging and shipping (This is a growing market). So Billerud will make some choices....

Below you will find a very nice article by the Daily Press (Our local paper). If Billerud selects Escanaba as the place for investment I believe based on the way the market is changing, political adjustments, and economic shifts in manufacturing the company may end up returning more than they initially projected and in turn set themselves up for future emerging options and opportunities (Maybe. There is some support for that comment.). 

I'm not going to go into depth on hedging and corporate investment strategies that consider factors such as locality, emerging markets, current investment profiles, etc. There are people out there way smarter than me on that topic. The only thing I'm going to say on it in the moment that Escanaba may work as a midterm and long term investment hedge for a number of different types of companies. The current revenue projections would likely be maintained except during certain periods of construction until new systems come on board (It just depends on the mechanics and strategy of the plan). 

That may specifically apply to Billerud as this mill and this town have unique characteristics (geographic, infrastructure, skilled training school, etc.) that would be hard to find in other towns. In other words, while some investment metrics might find similarities in some towns they may not see the specific benefits of this town (I think they see it but sometimes people get lost in in some numbers and not other numbers which would justify unseen value.)

Companies want to put themselves in the best place for success and future options and opportunities as they can. Future options, with local/state support, and with other developments in the area can raise the long term value of the initial investment projection and return rate. Environment is a difficult thing for many traditional metrics to count accurately (there will always be error rates). Add to that what our market looked like preCovid, preSupply Chain chaos, preChina-US trade issues, PreRussian war, etc. a few years ago to today and we would be shocked at how radically different they are now. Forecasting the Fringe. Billerud and the Red Buck 'Skonawby'.

Think about it. If you can invest in a town that may have other opportunities coming its way that raises the value of the mills property and land holdings, having one of the few deep ports, shipping infrastructure, lifestyle for attracting and retaining employees (executives), and a downtown that is drawing interest I think you can see the other difficult to calculate benefits (One could calculate these out but it isn't always included in every strategy so sometimes its beneficial to mention so designers can go back and consider.)

We can only really wait and see what happens but we those that can make the opportunity go through should be. It will be good for the community and it will be good for the company and for the owners/investors. This could be the start to something much bigger and much greater as markets reorient themselves to new supply chains and political realities.

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