Tuesday, June 28, 2022

Can Ukraine Still Win the War? Maybe under the right circumstances.

Most analysts would at this point say no way Ukrain can win and push the Russians out! I say it is possible but it won't be today or tomorrow unless.... You can read Russia Winning War in Ukraine.  With the right supplies, sanctions, and a few unexpected Russian mishaps based on existing weaknesses (the things Russia doesn't show the public) occur, then the tide could turn (i.e. defaulting on debt, economic woes, lack of ability to muster resources and a few battlefield losses). 

We were a little slow in our response and in many ways hoped to give Ukraine the ability to fight without creating a decisive victory. Troop levels are depleted on both sides but Ukrainians have more international support. With a change in strategy, better equipment, and back up support by well trained/seasoned mercenaries Ukraine could possibly turn the Russian assault into a route. 

Russia is running thin on multiple fronts and I suspect in many ways hiding that through false strength puffery (Putin's demand to surrender). Their ability to maintain forward momentum without serious national engagement is unlikely. More likely Putin has a geographic line he wants to reach and then bulk up some defenses to annex that area. 

Not letting him get to that line and dig in would mean the possibility of putting him on the defensive without a strong defense structure in place (i.e. a defense structure would slow his troops and give chances for Ukraine to counter. This may be why he is constantly pushing the battle line.). The timing needs to be just right and the equipment would need to be in place (This is why large kill zones can be helpful in softening advances and creating tactical retreats.)

Putin is an advanced forward chess player. He zeitgeist his opponents and creates chaos through fear and superior numbers. Just like getting bogged down cost Russia so would a few mistakes and reverse momentums that exploit temporary pauses (Risk being not having enough Ukrainian troops to push back hard.). 

The questions might be 1.) Do Ukrainians have the ability to detect the holes, 2.) Do they have the right equipment to pierce those holes, 3.) Do they have the troop supplies to capitalize on Russian mishaps? If in such a situation where an attack turns into a significant full route expect tactical nukes or bio weapons (Its not definitive but a hypothesis).

While anything can happen and such large openings would be rare, the support difficult to garnish in real time, the other option might be keeping up the costs of Russian ground presence in Ukraine until Putin passes away and the next leadership group feels the costs are not worth it. No idea. What do you think? So many possibilities. Time answers all questions. 

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