Thursday, December 1, 2022

Detroit Economic Club: The Outlook for Monetary Policy and Observations on the Evolving Economy

This is was a fairly interesting Detroit Economic Club speech as Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook visited to talk about lots of interesting things as they relate to our current economy. Hosting those who are in the center of national decision making on important issues provides insight for the business community. 

Remembered that policy impacts the economy in different ways and businesses should consider how policy impacts them and their operations. Staying on top of the news, meetings, conferences, etc. gives one a feel for the current economic trajectories.

-Labor productivity isn't growing as much as hoped. The 20-21 years productivity soared as people stayed home and businesses continued to function (I think this has something to do with information sharing increase. Perhaps just like when the Internet started there was a rise in productivity. I'm curious why it increased. You may want to read this interesting study on how universal internet access in the U.S. has flow output impact 3 X Covid and makes us more economically resilient to future catastrophes. In this case I agree that without the Internet the COVID pandemic might have brought the U.S. to its knees but we had one foot in the Digital Economy and many of our businesses adapted quickly. I'm curious about 2023/24 interchange. Adaptability led to a stronger economy than expected. Anyway....you can read the study HERE.).

-I agree that looking at long term trends are important but we should keep in mind anomalies such as COVID. The do weird things to our economy and create challenges and opportunities.

-I agree advanced manufacturing and creative development (I added the last term) are two ways to create sustained innovation and long term wealth through the creation of market driven products/solutions.

-While corporate R&D development is a central innovation strategy there are times when co development of multiple important capitalistic industries (i.e. widgets) and government industries (i.e. space, military, etc.) would shoot multiple birds with the same stone (i.e. innovative clusters and butterfly effect).

-Robots and wearable tech (Wearable tech is an extension of human skill and helps keep us adjusting and changing as a species. Robots are important but we should always keep in mind the need to have people incorporate new skills based on challenges from their environment. We must continue to learn and grow from generation to generation. The foundation of every state is the education of its youth. – Diogenes.)

-I agree that looking or alternative data sources, questioning the data, and knowing the data's limitations is important. 

- Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook mentioned he wanted to stay on Lake Superior. Lots of great places but my recommendation is Munising (....of course after stopping by Escanaba to see the underutilized economic potential of this town with its infrastructure, affordable downtown for entrepreneurs, tourism, natural resources and industry. Squint your eyes and keep your imagination! Wouldn't it be super cool to build something specifically to solve some current challenges and to capitalize on the emerging digital economy? Just in case you don't know where its at here is the Google Map 🙏)

 

Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Who is likely to be an entrepreneur? EM to EI in Business Development

A small saw mill in the area. Entrepreneurs! 
That could impact local construction, furniture,
and other local industries. A question?
Could reaching out to regional entrepreneurship
graduates be a good pool to encourage to
relocate and start a business?

Entrepreneurs are important for the local economy and the long term health of a nation as a whole. Knowing who is most likely to become an entrepreneur and how to attract them is worth a pound of gold to those entities that hope to spur new economic activity. Typically, starting more small business (mixed with larger businesses) equates to additional investment and an influx of capital.

For example, in the town of Escanaba Michigan there is a need for new entrepreneurs who can help put life into and enhance the downtown in a sustainable way. If you don't know much about Escanaba it is one of those small Northern Michigan towns in the UP that has all the underutilized essentials needed for future growth. Visit Escanaba.

What a study of students found was that an entrepreneurial mindset can lead to entrepreneurial intention in a way that encourages entrepreneurial activities (Al-Ghazali, Ali, & Sohalil, 2022). The study further helped understand how the right encouragement and education may increase the available pool of those willing to engage in future entrepreneurial activities. 

While the study is more focused on understanding the entrepreneurial mindset (EM) and how that turns into entrepreneurial intention (EI) we can postulate that if local governments understand the key factors that create an "entrepreneurial mindset" we may be able to encourage and attract such people to open a business within underutilized entities such as Delta County (Underutilized means that many of the necessary resources are there and could be enhanced with investment and economic foresight. Not all localities have under utilized resources because they don't have such resources. Escanaba has things like a small tourism draw, an affordable downtown, local industries, industrial infrastructure, and state/national/global economic trends swaying its way.)

Let us break it down a little more. It would be nice to know who is most likely to start a business based on certain entrepreneurial characteristics, who has some existing capital (i.e. $100K+) and a good idea might be matched with someone (and a local support package) who can help them move through the process of brainstorming, finding additional capital, navigating regulations, finding facilities, and ultimately starting their operations (i.e. Escanaba downtown..)

Al-Ghazali, B, Ali Shaw, S. Sohalil3, S. (Oct. 19th, 2022.) The role of five big personality traits and entrepreneurial mindset on entrepreneurial intentions among university students in Saudi Arabia. Frontiers of Psychology, Sec. Personality and Social Psychology. Retrieved https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.964875

Saturday, November 26, 2022

Chevron to Pump Oil in Venezuela: Diverse Energy and Economy?

Energy is an important thing and ensuring that we have energy reduces the risk of economic pitfalls and downturns in a way that impact kitchen tables. With some recent changes in the oil market that include Saudi Arabia and Russia production restrictions the U.S. could be exploring other options. 

Finding other sources of oil is important, tapping our own oil is important, and pushing green development is important. We should ensure we have adequate supply through this transition but find the point where green becomes the preferred industry choice because of its overall higher benefits (The best way is to do that through market innovation and the natural development of the green industry. There is some industry push to green now.
 
At the end of the day opening of Venezuela's oil market means we may consider seeking benefit from that market and trying to limit the influence other nations that have had a free hand in that market for too long (i.e. Iran and Russia). Putting our toes into multiple oil markets can help in creating greater influence over world oil supplies.

I'm a believer in general with connecting countries for influence and mutual benefit. However, every country should have a solid record on human rights because society is in general an extension of that need (i.e. meaning without a benefit to life society becomes sickly, weaker, and often have internal turmoil.).  Preference is important but we should always look at our energy security as part of the equation.

Venezuela has received some criticism in the past for human rights and willing engagement with U.S. adversaries so there are rules that will be associated with the License 41 (You can read about the Department of State's relationship with Venezuela)

In general, I think the more we can make the U.S. energy independent and an energy exporter the better we will be in the long run. I might consider pushing green energy but balancing that with traditional methods that are currently more cost effective and stable. Connecting with Venezuela could be helpful but the goal should be to be energy independent in the long run (cleaner the better).

The key is to get to the tipping point where investment moves more into green and limit the harmful impacts on society but maintain the capacity to use other sources (It will happen soon and it will be somewhat of a natural transition. Having a consistent supply of energy through plug and pay electrical grid could help create a more stable economy. See a study on Oil Shocks and Economic Crisis

Diversifying our sources limits the impact of shock and creates more consistency if supply and input can be adjusted to meet availability and cost. Think about it. One source gets restricted and we have excess capacity in other sources to fill the gap in a way that reduces demand for those who are doing the restriction as a tool. The more they play, the more they damage themselves.)

The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control provided License 41 to, “resume limited natural resource extraction operations in Venezuela."

Friday, November 25, 2022

Gladstone MI DDA Presents Old Fashion Christmas 2022

Gladstone DDA presents Old Fashion Christmas 2022. It is wonderful to see the small towns in the area come together as a community to celebrate Christmas. Gladstone and Escanaba are two small towns located on Lake Michigan in the pristine beauty of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.  

If you are interested in investing in the area, want to start a business, or seek to partner with local entities you can might want to contact the DDA and/or Delta County Chamber of Commerce.

If you haven't visited the area in the winter you really should think about it as a future eco tourism destination. I like to hike and snow shoe. Sometimes cross country ski. Summers are about boating and beaches. In my case diving and fishing. 

Old Fashion Christmas FB

City of Gladstone FB

Gladstone DDA Page

Delta Chamber of Commerce

Information on MEDC on Creating DDAs.












Thursday, November 24, 2022

What are the incentives to those who engage in hate? (Smoke and Mirrors))

I often talk about why hate and those who support hate are a serious risk to our democracy. While on the top of our nation we talk about democracy and freedom in very high end abstract terms (I do this as well so its normal and in many ways beneficial) most of these people have no idea what its like in our communities where hate has often become fashionable among certain clans. The lifestyles of those with resources are very different then the lifestyles of the average (I have lived in top zip codes and bottom zip codes and there are worlds of differences. One can't really describe the other unless you have lived for some time in both.)

(Its hard to blame many politicians and officials who don't understand hate because many/most were raised with resources, in the right crowds, and with lots of support. They don't really have the same connection to what happens on a ground level with real people trying to make ends meet. You can sort of see that with our politics where people are treating politics like a personal game when lots of people live on the outcome of that tit for tat Monopoly spin.) 

(Sorry I digress. I'm not a hate supporter and I'm completely confused on why hate has become acceptable and in many ways supported by large groups of people. I'm even more confused about how to find a solution because it relies on the often self oriented, subconscious, self awareness of people to see the bigger picture and the risks to our local/national institutions beyond their own needs.)

Here are a few benefits of why people support hate and why systems often default in handling it (I'm looking at this from an incentives perspective. As a general rule, people believe and do things on a social level and make decisions based on what helps them. The vast majority of people will never truly be aware of their own behaviors and the long term consequences of that behavior. If you want to understand why hate persists you have to understand its incentives and how people at different developmental levels react to internal angst. Hate as an outlet for inner dissonance.)

(One possible explanation of hate is related to lower needs fulfillment/development as postulated by Kazimierz Dabrowski’s and his theory of positive disintegration (TPD). Developmental levels are based on a person's capacity to grow from some very core rources rooted into their essence called Developmental Potential (DP). What we potentially have seen during hate crimes, ethnic cleansings, and mass shootings is a higher concentration of mental health disorders within the Level 1 stage. Such individuals are often surrounded and supported by similar Level 1 individuals. As one moves up the development ladder they are less likely to engage in such behaviors and/or rigidly adherence to group norms. At Level 4 and 5 kindness and empathy are seen as strengths but are often misconstrued as weakness by Level 1 individuals/groups. See Dabrowski's TBD. )

Here are a few benefits to the distortion of hate (Ok...its just role reversing to understand the incentives of why people do these things):

-Social approval: Its hard to hate without a community that also engages in hate (Community just meaning group and not an actual community. It could be an actual whole community but that isn't the intent of the meaning.) You will notice in most of these cases where crimes of aggression were committed there was some connection to others who thought in similar ways.

-Suppressing of inner pain: Internal pain of the aggressors often leads to attempts to make the targets associated with and eventually responsible for that pain even though they are unassociated. Almost as saying, "If I make them feel it, I don't need to feel it about myself.". By dehumanizing others they feel a temporary sense of relief from their own despair, shame, and "less than human" feelings. It can become a habit.

-Scapegoating collective faults: Sometimes societies have issues they have not fully discussed, vetted, and resolved. For example, this ex-sports group has developed a sense of blind loyalty, constant comparison, rumor spreading, and caddyness toward others. Yet none as far as I know can say the targets did anything to them and it appears to be intentionally spread "hear say".  The ability to coordinate on a family is reflective of some of their inner values of this group (as well as some officials) and is a false socially constructed reality based on the distorted perceptions of key influencers.

-Avenues to power: There is power in having a mob of blind supporters willing to act and work on the behalf of such divisionary. Mental slaves, as related to mob behaviors, reflects the emotional states of their leaders/influencers. The lower the developmental level of the supporter, the more likely they will closely mirror their leaders behavior. They easily relinquish their own personal power to group power. Good leaders use power to influence followers to be better and poor leaders influence followers to be worse through the use of mirror neurons. Strong nations grow through good leadership with shared values and are destroyed off of poor diversionary values (I prior talked briefly about social construction and the activation of neural synapses based on which mental pathways people have been socialized to prefer leading to closely related socialized values and decision making. i.e. heuristic thinking and mob mentality. All the bravado, rudeness, and group aggression and not one knows what they are talking about or has any of the "facts". They acted through social mimicking in a way that invalidated such misaligned perception of manhood they were trying to cloak their true selves in. In other words, within groups and against kids anyone can be bravado but when your out there alone standing against a large irrational aggressive mob then walk the talk and taking the higher road isnt always easy; even when it helps the perpetrators be better people. i.e. flying monkeys See mirror neurons and leadership. 👆) 

-Mask other issues, crimes, and behaviors: Sometimes there are bad histories that when the truth starts being revealed and the carefully woven lies unbonded the best thing to do is to make the targets "blameworthy" so the focus shifts to maintain the smokescreen. Isolation, accusations, rumors, etc. are all designed to created "blame worthiness" so as to deflect criticism and keep the truth suppressed (Trace back most hate networks and you often find mental health and other poor behaviors at the root of the group's leadership.).

-Economic reasons: Some groups want more access to jobs and opportunities than others. They have no issues suppressing others to maintain positions and/or gain new opportunities (i.e. local college that said I was more than qualified and then ghosted based on their distorted beliefs and social connections.). Good Old Boy networks exist to maintain this power and opportunities. Yet when they also incorporate racial and religious distortions that begin to cross between multiple local institutions therein lays the danger to democracy. 

Keeping the seeds of democracy
feeding future generations.
A painting of early pilgrims and Native 
Americans.
What we find in much of this dark behavior is the ability to maintain position/influence over some people in a way that in civilized societies is seen as unfair and unjust. This position is maintained through social aggression, belittling and restricting of opportunity that if left unchecked within our hometowns limits a huge percentage of our human capital at a time we need it the most! The next era belongs to universal principles that rely on shared perspectives that apply equally across society (i.e. taking our current system that attempts to be fair and making it consistently fair. Bad people go to jail, mental health is treated, and good people live unrestricted. Trust in the system is restored because there is a meaningful attempt to resolved the crisis of confidence based on evidence/science and not politics.)

(Today is Thanksgiving and lets reflect on how we came here for freedom and have the responsibility to maintain that freedom. The survival of the pilgrims was based on their ability to make a human-to-human connection with Native Americans. Without that they would have perished in the wilderness and without that same spirit today we risk cracking the foundations that hold the pillars of democracy skyward. Just imagine if the indigenous people thought the newcomers were savages and not worth saving. 🧐 Just saying.)

Wednesday, November 23, 2022

DOD Implements Zero Trust-Good Idea Updating to an Increasingly Digital Era

The world is a tricky place and lots of different cyber threats emerge, hacking groups form, money is spent, and people try and get information for gain. We are into a time when we are interconnected and have to protect sensitive data. As a department the DOD, like any other organism, must continuously update to its environment or risk being compromised. The DOD will update, our adversaries will update, and natural pressures encourage us to be adaptive or lose out on competitive advantages. 

The name of the game for the future is innovation and how that allows us to be central to the Digital Era. Our data will need to be further insulated so as to ensure that our adversaries are not using espionage and other malicious methods to obtain information they didn't put the resources in to discovery for themselves. 

I didn't read through everything but here are some resources if this topic is of interest to you. Its important to sort of understand changes from an IT perspective. Government policy often impacts suppliers who then impact their industries. Some of these policies will impact how business conduct its cybersecurity so staying on top of change is helpful.

Keep in mind that businesses are often targets of hacking to obtain secondary data and have responsibility to protect that consumer data. New ideas, inventions, and methods will come forward and the DOD will likely adapt what seems to make fiscal, practical, strategic and tactical sense. Industry and government sort of watch and impact each others development (i.e. Arpa)

DOD zero trust road map

DOD Zero Trust Document Library

Friday, November 18, 2022

Nov 17th 2022 Escanaba City Council Meeting: Supersize My Grant Please!

Another exciting meeting of a small American town on the move, adjusting, and improving its opportunities with each step forward. Escanaba is becoming increasingly open to investment and development in a way that could impact its trajectory going forward (Post Covid changes things.). That is good news for those who want to reinvest in America's small towns that improves not only those towns but perhaps many others just like it (Building a model of economic cluster development through innovation and investment that better aligns towns to global markets.)

(Am I making a stretch here? 🤔👺I'm making a small stretch. You can see people starting to work together to encourage more local development through zoning changes and moving projects forward. For those of you who don't know "cutting the red tape" refers not only to regulations but also getting through the many delays of bureaucracy. Better strategies forward often create better cutting of tape to achieve those milestones.

In small towns there are is less bureaucracy but more caution with community concerns. That can actually be a good thing for business because small towns can be very flexible if people see the need for change. Yet the community is the ultimate stakeholders of change and local individuals can communicate one-on-one with council members. The seeds to democracy are here in small towns just like this! See SWOTCH.). 

Escanaba received some beefy grants that will make a difference in the local water infrastructure (Good infrastructure can improve business prospects and reduced downtime costs. See an article on America's water infrastructure history and economic growth. HERE). Attracting additional resources such as more grants, tourists, businesses, etc. is a good thing. Towns have inputs and outputs just like businesses and either must become sustaining (hopefully perpetually sustaining governments) or must rely on outside support.

Infrastructure is important and helps create the platform businesses and communities need to grow. Many times we spend resources on immediate needs and defer other needs. Strong infrastructure can encourage businesses to consider starting operations and could be a beneficial marketing piece to include in any business investment outreaches (I don't think the city does this yet but as a proactive approach one could find a way to reach out to businesses and the investment community when opportunities present themselves. See Esky Downtown Dev. Start Up Delta and Delta County SME)

You can read the November 17th, 2022 City Council Agenda A few of the main concepts are below....

-Water treatment project moving forward.

-Stipend for interim City Manager 

-New dog sniff 

-$20 Mil EGLE Grant: 1 phase water project and 2nd phase lead replacement.

-DDA application process

-Mutual aid alarm box system for emergency support.

-Stump grinding

-Closed bridge

-Prior city manager Patrick J. resigns.

-Appointments

-Committee reports