Friday, October 14, 2022

IMF Fears Global Economic Slow Down (October 14th, 2022)

IMF, 2022
The IMF released its October 12th, 2022 World Economic Outlook that highlights risks the global economy faces from inflationary pressure and its impact on people's lives. It looks like we have economic shifting going on as we transition to longer term post COVID policy implementation (Also notice how advanced nations and other nations are fairing. As our economy digitizes it will have increases in transactions and creative capital that will encourage greater growth. The digital economy brings forward great benefits but also a risk of greater disparities.). 

From the IMF's executive summary we discover.....

Global inflation is forecast to be 8.8 percent in 2022, decline to 6.5 in 2023 and 4.1 percent by 2024. We have lots of things going on that includes war in Ukraine, fiscal-monetary policy changes, energy issues (oil restriction), food crises that is mixed up with inflation. That is a lot of market volatility that impacts confidence through increased unknown risks.

Monetary stability and proper fiscal policy seem to be part of the solutions. It is expected nations will pull back on many fiscal supports and actively engage in fighting inflation but such contractions might taint ill the global economy. Economic shocks can be even a bigger issue for the poor and vulnerable that don't have access to financial cushions.

You may also want to read a solid analysis in the World Economic Forum Recession warning from the IMF: What you need to know about the global economy this week

Tuesday, October 11, 2022

'Made in America' Gets Manufacturing Legs With Employment Growth

One of the challenges we face as a nation is to bring back manufacturing in a way that puts the nation at the best possible position to take advantage of the emerging Digital Era. That era is a technology platform shift that will change the way in which we interact with each other, the services we use, the devices we use, and the fundamentals of business. Some countries will move into that Digital Era as advanced manufacturing societies that balance between hard products and virtual products and others will find a place on the supply chain.

One key component to advanced societies are the creative skill of workers. An industry hiring more workers at higher wages, when compared to alternative employment, is a win for Made in America, for worker prosperity, and for governments that will benefit from that tax revenue. The advanced society should find a path to perpetual sustainable development where economic opportunities renew. 

On a macro scale when we want to innovate and invent as a people new products/serviced in the U.S. through our creative capital (i.e. STEM), encourage strong international investment mechanisms in that growth (i.e. pack investing, clusters, tax policy), to produce the highest market value products (i.e. emerging products, technology, and services). 

Upward Manufacturing Trend

Some data indicate the U.S. manufacturing sector is on an upward trend with more hiring and investment in people (The goal should be to help people get into these higher technology manufacturing jobs because they produce significant economic value. Being at the center of a global supply chain means that advanced manufacturing and skilled labor come together to create the highest increase in product value.). Notice the stats below and pay attention to the table to get a sense of positive trends (There is lots of mixed data but an upward trend). I believe you can also get a sense of more of the supplies are coming from shorter supply chains (i.e. increasing local wealth.)

Here are some of the statistics I looked at: durable goods +22 and the type of products produced, fabricated metal product +6.3, wood products +2.2, Mining and logging 3 (because I'm from the U.P. you have to explore the category descriptions to see if it actually related to anything we produce up here. i.e. furniture, snowshoes, etc.), Machinery -1.7, Computer and electronic products .4, Electrical equipment and appliances 3, Transportation equipment(cars) 8.4, and Construction 19. (You can read a really good article by Bill Koenig Senior Editor SME Media HERE.)

You can gain some specific information  in the updated October 7th, 2022 BLS release Table B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail

Manufacturing as Opportunity: 

American labor is at its best when its creative improves products, produces a high value product or service, and has updated technology skills that allows for modern tools. High paying jobs should attract a diverse set of employees. It is one of those sectors that will spend a lot in training people and give reasonably high pay (in relative terms) for people starting out. 

If you were a person who want to find a stable job and use that as a base to go to college, start a business, or just pay bills this would be one sector in which you can do that. They often take people at one level and put them through training programs and certifications improving your economic value as an individual and the overall skills available for the organization.

You can gain some interesting information in Manufacturing Opens More Doors to Women
  • Women make up 47% of the American workforce but only 30% worked in manufacturing.
  • 1/4 management positions are held by women.
  • Women earned on average 16% more than the national median annual income when compared to other employed women

 

Wednesday, October 5, 2022

Knowledge Transfers from College to Business: Applying and Innovating

Inspiration
"Docks by Day"
When new college graduates first enter into the working world they are enthusiastic about opportunities to display those skills to achieve their life' goals. Everything is new and everything is exciting! With all of their enthusiasm recent college graduates may struggle with understanding how their skills apply to their jobs and how to maximize the value of that new knowledge.

It makes sense for businesses to be excited about taking those new skills and registering them to corporate improvement. Once one successfully transfers from college into their work roles the value of skills and knowledge can be realized more fully. It is up to business to maximize updated skills for organizational learning and innovation.

The higher the degree obtainment, in general the higher the knowledge transfer. Typically advanced degrees come with the possibility of entry into lower level manager or executive positions. For those graduates already employed, an advanced degree often means faster promotability. The relationship is not one for one but telling of the importance of education in the market.

I found an interesting article that may have some appeal if your wondering how to transfer new knowledge successfully into the workplace. Continuous learning is about taking new knowledge and applying it for industry improvement. The utility of using new skills within a wider theoretical understanding (specific and broad knowledge).

How Can You Apply What You Learn in School in the Workplace?

Beyond applied skills we often find universities knowledge contributes to innovative growth through discoveries and community engagement. Businesses are capitalizing on applied knowledge and theoretical/scientific knowledge in ways that improve organizational functioning. The benefits of knowledge becomes more apparent when the resources are put within the right environment (i.e. clustering).

You can gain more information in The Innovative Impact of U.S. Universities 


Sunday, October 2, 2022

Latino Voters Numbers: Political Perspectives

 Keeping up with the demographics the growing populations in the U.S. helps in things like marketing but also in general helps a broader sociological understanding. I like to read these polls from time to time and get a sense of where different demographics are leaning in their perspectives. 

This voting block is maturing and starting to feel the power that comes from one of fastest growing segments of society. Because of the size of the group they will have different perspectives on the same issues that you may not find in smaller populations of peoples.

Just for understanding....

GOP cuts into Democrats’ lead among Latino voters, new poll shows

Think Tank Transparency Act: Good Idea?

A new piece of legislation was introduced called the Think Tank Transparency Act and seeks to require disclosure of foreign monies to U.S. think tanks that desire to influence U.S. Policy. You can read about the act as brought forward by our local UP representative Congressional Representative Jack Berman (R). Basically it says that we don't have a good handle on how many think tanks are being funded by foreign entities nor their influence. It hopes to remedy that lack of knowledge by requiring disclosures like you might find in FARA.

Yes, for the most part I see why it would be doing and hoping to accomplish. In this case we had a retired Marine General lobbying on behalf of a foreign entity and then lied about it. Likewise, we have/had lots of other countries like Russia trying to influence our elections. Thus, the timing of such an act seems to make sense if it fits within a general movement/trend to protect American assets (I'm just trying to understand when legislation can be brought forward and when it has the best chance of success. Much of it appears to be based on timing.) 

Well....is the act a Good Idea?

I think we will want free movement of ideas and thoughts without overregulation but at the same time we want to be sure that the money being sent and spent isn't trying to manipulate our population. So I would say in general "Yes" its a good idea but with a few caveats thrown in; Amount $$/% and Research Data Availability. A certain threshold in $ or % should trigger mandatory disclosures.

Information is very important and I think we have a need for various protections in place but one might wonder when such requirements kick in? One could consider a certain amount of money or a certain percentage from organizations and/or individuals from the same place or region (The threshold amount is $10K in the act. However, one might also want to know if there is a certain percentage from any radius region to help better ensure we are not gaming through multiple small funding amounts. I don't know...its sounds good to me. 🤷 ). 

The same can be said with the data such sites produce and share with the public as "objective" research and science. If you have a study that is published and its credible in today's world you may want to make the methodology easy to find and follow (i.e. polls often list data.). Placing that information on the site with the report helps people to see the meaningfulness of the research and allows for transparency of results and innovation as researchers can use the results in their own studies. (Yes, who is polled, how they are polled, how many are polled, where they are polled, what technologies are used, channels used, what statistics they use, the wording of the questions, etc. all is important in getting a specific response.)

Information be easily available on demand to other researchers and scientists to ensure reasonable accuracy of validity/truthfulness/accuracy. If it looks interesting, or an anomaly, I might want to know more about it if I'm studying the same genre or I'm making an actual policy decision. Thus having the methodology and data could help clarify the limitations of a study before we make long term policy choices that can permanently impact society. 

We need to know what the information means, who is funding it, and what its implications are? We also want to encourage more studies and research as we need in a learning society. So legislation must keep in mind the need to encourage more research while protecting the risks. 

BTW you can read the actual Act HERE.


Pope Appeals to Putin to Stop Violence: Imams and Rabbis Should Do the Same!

We are in a world that is interconnected and we all are saddened when conflict breaks out. The Pope came out to encourage Putin to end the spiral of violence. It may be beneficial for Imams and Rabbis to come out with similar appeals now that nuclear risks have risen. All of these religions share the respect for human life and the need for peace. 

He mentioned the rights of minorities and how we should protect them. Something we sometimes forget in our own nations. Our nation was started on this need and the rights of religion and speech. We should watch the horrors in Ukraine and how differences can be exploited for personal and political gain. 

As we have seen in annexation of Ukraine one can use the law to justify anything but can't change the moral underpinnings of those choices. As a conservative I focus on the real deeper meanings of religion and their essential core meanings (Rino-Dino doesn't factor into it.)

Let us continue to help Ukraine and learn from conflicts in the world so that we can continue to raise our torch to lighten the way for others.  Freedom is worth it!

You can read the bulletin at Pope appeals to Putin to stop war and Zelensky to be open to serious peace offers

Saturday, October 1, 2022

What is it like to be a target of hate? When the Laws No Longer Function Appropriately

Hate is powerful tool especially if it is normalized and become part of local institutions. As some of my readers know my family and I have been targeted by hate (...they told us why they were targeting us because of religion. These officers eventually did the right thing and realized they were being played with. The other department connected to that social group continued forward in support of their ethnic, racial, and/or social group.) and that included a group of 100+ mediocre ex sports players/bullies, what appears to be 3-5 officers, a local college HR (They said I was more than qualified for an adjunct labor law course but then rejected me when they found out I was the "Muslim guy" their friends didn't like and whom they were targeting. Another hint of ethnic/religious cleansing based on trying to restrict jobs and opportunities. Usually an EEOC violation where such laws applied appropriately.), and what appears to be a local judge (I can't believe they would go this far with pre-knowledge of immunity before and after such behaviors if not given a wink and nod to "clean" their community. There could be other explanations but this one would be one plausible and leading explanation.) 

Imagine just for a moment if what I am saying is true (I know! I know! Impossible and would never ever happen anywhere! Ever!! 🤷 Never! 3X Never!). Just for a second let us pretend that someone who makes such a claim is telling the truth even if it seems impossible in a modern society (This much aggression is not common but I suspect many smaller forms are more common with most people are not consciously aware but do feel they got the short end of the justice stick.). If true it would open a pretty big can of worms caused not by something the out-group/other did but by the reaction of those with hate leanings to the presence of an out-group/other member; especially one who sets a boundary.

Let us further pretend the impossible and recognize that the people who started this knew they were immune as indicated in smirky aggression, condescending remarks and doubling down on trying to manipulate/harm children (devaluing their rights and their life through recklessness). They had no fear they were going to get in trouble and appeared to have been coached by some of their close officer friends on how to delegitimize someone (Typically called defamation of character and in ethnic conflict propaganda to dehumanize others) and "set" someone up through false testimony and provoke an argument through highly provocative comments, words, and aggression (It actually didn't happen because I recognized the disingenuous behaviors and am generally am more likely to pause before acting. Polite but not passive. Meaning I might tell you a truth you don't want to hear but do so in a polite way. Its called a feedback loop when your doing something wrong.)

If the officers that were involved where part of this hate group's close friend network and were doing the bidding of one of their social leaders that would be immoral (Not to mention not following the Bill of Rights or the requirements of their job function.) Likewise, if the social leader had a financial stake in how things turned out that might be a moral problem that further highlights the manipulativeness of the behaviors. 

Let us also say that the people around this social leader knew that they potentially had a mental health problem based on their own personal observations. They knew that when they get upset at people they get "weird" (One of their close friends said that! Not my words.) and that others have experienced the more apparent signs of potential narcissisms with loud attention seeking and aggressive behaviors (A possible important point as to the need for better mental health intervention before you exploit race/religion for group coordinated cleansing. BTW most of the members are good people but they were socialized to a "better than you" beliefs and when you stand up to one of their bullies they quickly act as a coordinated entity to social enforce the rules.

Worse, every time this group sees you they either chuckle loudly (...as is their custom much like chest beating of monkeys) and/or encourage people to get angry (Social bullying with a potentially violent leanings by some members.) Beyond staring kids down in a Menards parking lot their behavior more than once could have led to a group/gang/clan group fight. An example of provocative behaviors would be yelling out "Your father is a bitch" or something similar to my kids attending an event (No respect of life, liberty or pursuit of happiness. I can't believe how destructive they were to kids. A total violation of a person's rights and wink and nod free pass. If we don't have a democracy and freedom for our kids/hope then what do we actually have? If the root assumption is based on racial or religious considerations and they acted on those distorted beliefs that is kind of a serious issue. Like I said, I can't imagine I would have any serious problems with anyone in that group or do they know me or my family enough to make such judgements.  ðŸ¤·)

All of that would be illegal and immoral in 1st world, 2nd world, 3rd world nations and under international law. Imagine if a local judge gave them the right to engage in these behaviors (Either let them engage in these behaviors and/or didn't step in to stop it then I would have concerns.). That would be a sign this judge is supporting a good old boy networks through racial and/or religious identities (Its only one possible explanation. There are likely others.). 

If acceptable it would then be a violation of Freedom of Religion as defined in the Constitution and one of the reasons our forefathers started this country in the first place (Its not fair to have bigots define what that means to the rest of us.). Now imagine if you set up a red line to protect your kids and they doubled down on violating those boundaries to teach you a lesson on who they can and can't harm (The narcissism trait). Furthermore, they did so with the approval of their close network of officers and possibly a judge (Let us wait and see what comes out of this. Maybe not but I doubt it. Someone would have had to give them the right to target. A judge would be the person that would hold them to account and if they are in agreement then there would be no checks and balances in the system. i.e. prior knowledge they could engage in these behaviors. This is why we need more checks and balances.) 

Standing up to hate is a dangerous affair. Where laws don't always apply there are all types of things that can go haywire when your part of the other side of society. The more you talk, the more they target through raising punishments and that could further lead to a violation of Freedom of Speech through intimidation tactics to remain silent (..an illegitimate use of legitimate power). (The break down of the rule of law as applied universally to American citizens. Targeting seems ok as long as the "other" is seen as less valuable and not truly worth of inherent rights. Whether they, people in their family, or others fought for those rights. It only matters the religion, ethnic affiliation, and social network of the perpetrators.). 

(I want to clarify that I believe 90+% of the officers in the area are doing the right thing, our state and federal systems are functioning {not perfectly but functioning} and that most people want the best outcomes for our nation and inherent rights. There is that 10% of the society that wants what they want and no one else matters if it doesn't fit within their distorted perception of the world. That is the 10% of society that approve of cleansing, political violence and/or other aggressive behaviors. Those are big national numbers but think about what that might look like on a local level and within some of our institutions if the targets seem so worth of hate and so very very different then their perpetrators.)

What is it like to be a target? These are just a couple of things I learned. Most of the people in the community support you and provide a welcoming environment. This is your hometown and people know you come from here and have every right to be here. However, a group of officers, their friends, and what looks like a local judge can create a highly toxic environment. (Neglecting that this is my town and my genetic line precedes many of theirs). When your seen as the "other" the laws stop being your friend and are directed toward you (Most minorities know how this works and until the riots most judges didn't care. It is a fundamental issue in our society. We need universal justice and the demand for that will likely grow. I support police 100% and civil rights 110%)

You know what happened was wrong and you know they targeted your child for personal gain and hate based bigotry. You know that they were given a free pass and they had support for such aggressive behaviors both officially and socially among their connected network. You stay and you take risks but if you leave you allowed corruption to cleans out their community. Leaving would mean others are at risk in the future and likely there were victims in the past (This is where state and federal stakeholders should consider the dangers of local institutions that don't follow our Constitution, laws, or cultural understanding of moral conscious). 

You do what you can do based on the tools available to you. You be polite but not passive, you call for accountability, you challenge, you help your community, encourage reconciliation with recognition of their bad behaviors, you try and bring opportunity but what you don't do is sugar coat dangerous and at multiple times potentially violent behaviors.  Bending a knee to fear, hate and potential (I can only say potential but it seems to add up) disrespect to all those who sacrificed for Freedom or Speech and Freedom of Religion (Some of us live it everyday. Freedom isn't only an abstract concept.). It becomes to define your community and the values of the nation (How wonderful the vast majority of the local society actually is.). 

What I advocate is for a win-win. No one needs to get in trouble if they don't want to. Its an opportunity to learn as a community and as a nation. Undiagnosed and untreated mental health may have spawned the hate to a group of ex sports players that had poor boundaries and false beliefs of Blacks, Muslims and Others. Close connections between perpetrators and police officers may have misguided a judge with coordinated false testimony much in the same way as they engaged in group behaviors. That can be answered based on how the judge finds out they were given false information. If they don't tackle the problem in an appropriate way (i.e. not just blame the victim) then it could mean they were aware and want to minimize what happened. Some things are being designed as we move forward......

(Nothing in here is fact it is only the most likely explanation I can come up with based on first sight observations, knowledge and possible explanations. There are other explanations like a rare disease or something like odd like that {just making a point}. However, what I have here is likely a leading "ball park" reasonable conclusion. New knowledge with change and adjust that. One justifying these targeting behaviors as appropriate would have a different construction of events than one not justifying these behaviors. That is the two "worlds" of perception and logic that are often rooted in our culture and backgrounds. In society now it is nearly 50/50 with half running down certain mental chains of thoughts (neural networks) and the other half running down a different mental chain of thoughts. Those who feel "entitled" to the law will interpret the purpose of law different then those who feel less "entitled" to the law. Different experiences, different logics, and different conclusions. The rare divergent thinker can run down both if they have the experiences to understand those symbolisms, cultures, and root value systems. You will eventually see what I'm saying in future posts....)