Flux Power Holdings Inc (FLUX) Does a Stock Nose Dive Make Sense (Mapping Cluster Performance Example)?

On September 22nd/23rd there was a fairly large sell off that led to a significant price drop that has continued to drop; at least until yesterday. That comes on the heels of a positive revenue financial release (See below). One must wonder if someone dumped a bunch of stock at once to take advantage of the little bleep and then push the stock market down.  Why is it continuing to decline and when might it end? What I'm looking for is how a company like this (not saying this company) could work in tandem with other companies to reach innovative milestones.

Q4’21 revenue grew 33% to $8.3M compared to Q4’20 revenue of $6.3M
FY’21 revenue increased 56% to $26.3M vs FY’20 revenue of $16.8M
Q4’21 gross margin increased to 21.0% compared to 17.5% in Q4’20
FY’21 gross margin improved to 22.1% vs FY’20 gross margin of 13.0%

The report also went into discussion on how they paid off of their debts and converted $5.2 million debt to equity. Flux also added more institutional investors as well as some interesting customers under "autonomous electric shuttle vehicles", a large meat processor, paper product, and chemicals manufacturer. Still no real indicators of why? (Lets not get frustrated....if it was all that easy we would all be rich. LOL)

Refreshing my memory I went out and reviewed literature on ways to evaluate stocks and came across the article, 'How to Research Stocks' by Mathew Frankel. Pretty good stuff. You may also want to read about 'Angel Investing: What Experienced Investors Wish They Knew When They Started' by Miruna Girtu. My goal is to sort of look at evaluating stocks and how investors might infuse capital into clustered companies when they work in conjunction with other companies up and down the innovative supply chain to create more wealth from everyone (Don't forget that there are many transactions that lead to a business success. Having more in one place to create something new might have high value as its adapted throughout the rest of the manufacturing-supply chain. What I'm saying is that companies can work competively in tandem with other companies in their own best interest to create more solutions for society while at the same time maximizing ROI. Laser focused capitalism...See Theory of Firm.). 

(Note: I'm working on some cluster research and I want to determine how to not only select companies for growth to add to a cluster to achieve innovative development but also how to map that cluster's internal development through transactions and company financial information that leads to wealth of participating companies. Transactional Subfactor DC. We select companies by their existing strengths and put them with other companies to solve problems thereby increasing both innovation and wealth for interested stakeholders. i.e. making being involved in a cluster as lucrative for investors. I'm just playing around with the idea but you can read MultiClusters in Delta County Michigan Model Example, SME Venture Capitalism DC, DC Market Emergence, DC R&D Firms, HQ Attract DC, Start Up Firms DC)

The author basically breaks down market research into fundamental (long-term stock fundamentals) and technical analysis (short term stock fluctuations.) What we also find is that there are a couple of suggestions of what to look for in terms of the numbers (I'm applying Flux to a couple of them.):

EBITDA Margin

-50.29%

 Generally means low cash flow.

Net Profit Margin

-48.72%

Generally means its not profitable. 

Return on Inves. Capital

-182.11%

Generally means investment capital is not returned. 

Ok ok...it looks terrible but is that the whole story?

What we find from the September 27th Earnings Call is that they are scaling up for bigger clients and some of the expenses are related to increasing capacity. When we delve into that further we can see the company is investing in its capacity, has a few patents and would like to offer a larger version of lithium battery packs to ports of entry (i.e. hard infrastructure and warehousing). Some of the batteries will be used in autonomous vehicles/robotics thereby likely developing technologies interested in by auto, military, manufacturing, and aerospace.(This is just batteries but you can see my point.). So the numbers above may not be fully accurate and when the stock dumped it seemed to have dumped further on animal spirits (No idea...want to be a fly on the wall.). 

Now what? 

Well we find that the company is a start up since 2009 and has established itself in parts of the industry. It is within a growing trend and many of their products are likely to gain more attention. Revenue is increasing along with expenses which indicates a process of development. I bought my at $7.5, $6.3 and $5.9 and the price is currently $5.08 meaning I'm 19.33% down. I guess I'm no stock guru.....but lets wait a minute and see what will happen. There are cash flow issues but a solid base so might be ripe for institutional investment.  I didn't buy much, just enough to watch, and want to see if there is a bottom and what behaviors occur thereafter. I think the company has some strong fundamentals and is in the right market but might be in the process of focusing on a bigger market leading to miscued imperfect numbers. Its average stock price is about $5 ish over the past few years which is a type of mental benchmark for solvent bottom. Analysts say one for moderate buy and the other for negative. So its sort of in the right market but in the wishy wash place (Do not listen to me on stocks....I'm actually looking for verification of another idea for pack investing clusters.). 

Description from Flux 

Flux Power designs, develops, manufactures, and sells advanced rechargeable lithium-ion energy storage solutions for lift trucks and other industrial equipment including airport ground support equipment (GSE), energy storage for solar applications, and industrial robotic applications. Flux Power’s LiFT Packs, including the proprietary battery management system (BMS), provide customers with a better performing, more environmentally friendly, and lower total cost alternative, in many instances, to traditional lead acid and propane-based solutions.

Sidenote: If you watch various stock/financial points within a structure can you see how that structure is changing? ....hypothetically you could map the structure and the supply chain to see which areas are growing and which areas are shrinking leading to better government fiscal management as well as increasingly accurate policy making. Need semiconductors or Autonomous military/civilian vehicles?  put together the R&D people of necessary companies and let them focus on a shared projects, create patents, and innovate their sectors. A cluster can be created around anything as long as the location, resources, infrastructure, labor, etc... are available and/or be developed. Delta County Michigan has some advantages as a potential start-up innovation location. Furthermore in a cluster system if you were to map the stock, transactions, patents, people movements, etc.. could you have a better sense of how to optimize a cluster for maximum innovative performance (as well as scalability to other locations). That would require companies moving into a cluster to be open to cluster research and access to related documents.

Live Updates on Congressional Budget and Infrastructure Vote

 This is where the magic of democracy happens. All the positioning, arguments (some of which are silly) and practical matters come into play. All decisions have an outcome and in turn change our options. This is where its all in a pressure cooker and the type of meal we will have depends on the "right mix" in the pot. 🍳=🥠

Ok...enough with the metaphors....you can read CNN's Live Updates

Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen testify before Congress on CARES Act — 9/28/21

 Lots of different things going on here in terms of questions and answers. Lawmakers are seeking more answers on some of the activities of the Federal Reserve. You can read the highlights in 'Fed Chair Powell calls inflation ‘frustrating’ and sees it running into next year'. Sometimes watching videos like this gives you into the current thinking in government and potential policy pushes that impact the business climate.

Escanaba Mayor Tall Seeks Reelection (Thumbs Up!)

The Escanaba Daily Press posted an article, 'Escanaba Mayor Marc Tall seeks reelection to council' and his desire to run again for Escanaba Major. I have been watching the Escanaba YouTube Chanel for some time and I will say that I like what he is doing. That isn't saying I know anything about the other candidates (good or bad) but what I have seen is that he seems to be focused genuinely on developing a stronger community (Leadership Characteristics are important and valued in society where generations can give back.). 

You can watch and get a sense of the different types of discussions that take place during the city hall meetings HERE. People/Institutions interested in investing in this town should understand the landscape and conduct at least an informal Environmental Scan that puts local activities in the perspective of global change (Not saying that is going to happen...its just a discussion on community leadership and environment. Maybe we will get lucky someday and attract additional investment; maybe not.🤷). 

Escanaba is a great place to live and invest. Most of the people genuinely care about their community and do what is best for their town and residents. Opportunities abound for capital development/hedging that ranges in everything from small downtown development/stores all the way over to larger corporate investments (See Information Availability). 

I'm not even saying my readership should trust my judgement (I second guess myself all the time! 🤓) but I believe he is doing a fine and dandy job. There might be other great candidates applying or there may not be other great candidates applying; I'm just saying thumbs up on this one.👍👌 Focusing on developing a great place to live and raise kids is important. 

Knowledgeable leaders understand how economics and business impacts local growth opportunities. Leaders may not know all the right answers but if they ask a range of people who have that knowledge they are much more effective in their own decision making. While we are talking about local issues sometimes looking at large studies can be helpful. A study of 146 countries by Finance Professor Craig Brown in the Journal of Monetary Economics discusses how leadership knowledge improves performance of a country (I suspect that applies to locality as well.)

The Importance of Judges To Society and Why They Must Have a Bigger Purpose

We have problems brewing that range from extremism to discontent and our local judges have a responsibility to not only stand against such behaviors but also actively thwart them for a greater purpose beyond their bench (When local judges become bankrupt, Federal judges should step in to ensure the Constitution is upheld and the integrity of the system is maintained.). Social connections, corruption, and disingenuous behavior often leaves some members of society wondering, "Has it always been like this?" and  "Are the laws nonexistence or inherently so warped that they no longer count?". We do know we can do better reporting certain crimes for statistical reasons and holding people accountable for moral reasons but....

A model of slow and fast change. Covid was a 
non-linier fast event that shifted behaviors and tech.
more change is likely on way....
How we handle similar issues will determine the smoothness
of social transition.
(Sablonnière, 2017)

....if places like this exist we must ask ourselves what circumstances does it take to uphold the law and continue forward with time honored American principles (the torch) being offered from one generation and willingly accepted by the other (Remember we have to keep our legal system clean in order to ensure it is trusted and the basic values can be passed. Judges who cannot uphold basic human rights should not be allowed to stay on a bench. Past behaviors become suspect. UN Impact of Legal System Corruption). When those values become distorted it not only puts more then the victims at risk it also warps what makes a country like the U.S. great (Let's not let the wealth of the past few generations blind us to the need to maintain those values for the current generation that is now beginning to question capitalism and democracy in general. In other words, people believe because good moral conscious is at the forefront of our behaviors and these are still the two best systems in the world...but we have to believe and enforce those values within our institutions to maintain it. All societies are rooted in a social contract. I encourage our legal system, politicians, and societal stakeholders to investigate and root out inappropriate behaviors when reasonable maintain long term societal trust of the institution. Integrity will help maintain the system from social shocks during sociological shifts; of which we need to be done as smoothly as possible. i.e. a shift from local to global perspectives/big data/renaissance and the blending of values that will put greater pressure on local officials to maintain those values that bind society into a single identity.)

Brookings. Rule of Law and Development are 
Associated.

If we want a society that is fair, just and stable we will need judges that look at the big picture and make decisions that are in the best long term interest of society. These are the one's that make decisions with wisdom and not in their own self-social interest. There are just times when certain behaviors are not acceptable and have created other victims who not only no longer have a voice but whos lives and rights were smothered because the judge failed to roll up his/her sleeves and earn their taxpayer paycheck. (Truth and justice should be the main banner and that leads to positive benefits throughout society. Judges should not have the right to circumvent victims rights just because "rights" are inconvenient and they may not be liked by their social group members. If no one looks, no crimes are committed....but that is not how our society should be....that is a sign of societal decline.). 

Its not so much the legal system as it is those within the system who subjectively choose who and when they are going to hold certain behaviors accountable. We have a level of responsibility to a greater moral compass. We don't want a system where the only truth comes from people who go public with irrefutable evidence that can't be denied when all the signs of illegal behavior were already present but intentionally glossed over (Notice how people now intuitively pull phones out to document behaviors. We should ask ourselves why people feel that is a necessity in today's world? Has a culture of distrust developed? Why has it developed? Big research questions for scientists to ponder.)

Moral failures relate to societal decline.
Moral Collapse and State Failure:... 

When bad behavior comes to light and it appears reasonable these judges should explore those concepts from a neutral standpoint (i.e. look for the truth). They have an obligation to society beyond those who look, act, or worship in the same way they do (...even if they don't get re-elected. We can look at historical examples of poor judgeship such as what happened to notable figure such as Jesus, Socrates, Voltaire, etc.. I suspect if the judges had feedforward insight they were going to be branded in the history books as villains' they would have made different choices; but that is not how it should work...because this is just self interest. ). They willingly choose their path to judgeship and must fulfill those obligations once on the bench regardless of their personal gain/loss. 

How does one fix this problem? I'm not sure its possible....at least without a more enlightened perspective. We need a self reflective justice systems that is willing to hold its own bad actors accountable to maintain and restore trust....and we need it to keep the republic moving toward its ultimate destiny/path. Its much more difficult to get us to that ultimate philosophical/national goal when some of us are holding us back based on a limited perspective and social self interest.

What we do know is....if these things are happening (I'm sure it happens from time to time)....they are detractors to our great nation and against the spirit by which the country should run its course. Greater knowledge and awareness of the different perspectives in society helps us learn and improve; or double down on bad strategies (Reuters conducted a review that indicated 9/10 judges that engaged in misconduct stayed on the bench. Yikes! What about all the victims? No rights?💕) . Failure to stand by these principles eventually leads to institutional distrust that results in things like increasing riots and dangerous group behavior such as the sacking of the capitol (..point being that economic issues, COVID, indifference, bias, etc... erode trust and diminish stability.). Where first world performance is needed some opt for third world results. The Blind Eye  and Morality and Law

Side note:

I'm just writing in general about things I feel and think might be helpful in building something bigger than ourselves from a national perspective. I have been watching politics and watching how certain behaviors are playing out in society and I think there is some benefits to trying to maintain an objective as possible stance and encouraging society to develop when and where it can. Our legal, social, economic, etc... structures do impact our opportunities to attract resources and grow as a nation. It is becoming increasingly possible to build a more comprehensive model of how local corruption might work and where it can be investigated (i.e. specific document focus) to determine the validity of that model.

Detroit City Councilman Andre Spivey Pleads Guilty: Who and What is Next?

Detroit was a city on the move but has fallen to its knees due to corruption and societal bias (Very sad it was my stomping grounds for a while). Once connected to a wider world it went bankrupt and things began to change for the better....except it kept the same corrupt leadership.  Its kind of sad what happened to Detroit and we hope that it can regain its footing and become a city destined for a second comeback. That means we need stronger leadership and people who have the foresight to move beyond their self gain. The old ways simply aren't working and there must be new ways of managing our cities. 

...also its hard to have a comeback unless there are people in office that can foster that.

Corruption Impacts Economic Growth
AHMAD, ULLAH & ARFEEN, 2012

This is a problem that has been brewing for a long time and it is one that has been festering under our noses (Likely why we were engage in political banter.). Good people have come forward to help change the landscape of Detroit but there are still people in public office that are soaking off the backs of the downtrodden while enriching themselves. We must end this type of self seeking behavior if we plan on being the nation we know we should be...with a future and a destiny others want to follow! The UN has some stuff on corruption HERE and discusses how it damages people. 

It doesn't have to be this way! We could reconnect with Detroit while making social, racial, and business headway into the development of a new national vision that ties us together. Detroit was a place where the legacy of segregation made two different societies for those in Detroit and those from the Suburbs and that should end. The past should not define our future as new digital technologies and opportunities gravitate toward Michigan.  

Its time to start sharing a sense of destiny and breaking down these mental and social barriers for something greater (Assuming our politicians can lead us into the next era where race and religion do not determine our opportunities and our politics.). 

In other words, we are free to choose our own destiny's without the baggage of the past...but we must set on that course and then make a bi-partisan commitment to it. Wouldn't it be nice if we drew people together as a single people with a single national purpose? (I guess that isn't popular. Lets try doing the same thing over and over and see if it changes anything in the next 40 years? 🤷 Or we can work on finding similarities through divergent thinking. You can also read this definition of divergent thinking.)

If you want to know more you might want to read a very nice article entitled, 'Detroit Councilman André Spivey pleads guilty to bribery, expected to resign' by Robert Snell and Sarah Rahal (The names sound familiar....🤔 I think they used to write about this before...like 12 years ago. 🗞)

....a couple of quotes from the paper. 

"The people of Detroit deserve a city government free of corruption and pay-to-play politics," Acting United States Attorney Saima Mohsin said in a statement Tuesday .

"In the last 12 years, more than 110 labor leaders, politicians, police officers and bureaucrats have been charged with federal corruption-related crimes locally, according to a database built by The Detroit News." 

P.S. cool database!

Gov. Whitmer details MI New Economy plan to grow our middle class, support small businesses and invest in our communities

 Its important to keep up with the news and take a look at some of the changes that are likely to happen in the state. You can take a look at plan below as it relates to small business development (I'm looking at how things get proposed, changed, and passed in the State of Michigan. For the most part I'm taking a very neutral approach to politics in our state and country but like to explore people's ideas and plans to see what might be helpful and what might work/not work in future economic development plans. As new plans come forward it will be nice to see the logics and tools they use and take what seems to make sense. Its a "what does it mean" approach to any plan presented.) Focusing on small business as it can help to rebalance overreliance on large companies (and the tax issues) as well encourage wealth generation and development of stronger business communities. You can read more of the plan below. Taken from the state website HERE. 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE  

September 21, 2021  

Contact: Press@Michigan.gov  

Gov. Whitmer details MI New Economy plan to grow our middle class, support small businesses and invest in our communities 

MACKINAC ISLAND, Mich. - Today at the Mackinac Policy Conference, Gov. Whitmer detailed her economic agenda, including the unveiling of the three pillars of her bold $2.1 billion MI New Economy plan to grow Michigan's middle class, support small businesses and invest in communities.  

"I am laser-focused on tackling these big, structural challenges by growing Michigan's economy, creating good-paying jobs and building industries of the future," said Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. "The MI New Economy plan is a good start, and I look forward to working with key partners, the legislature and anyone who wants to put Michigan's families, communities and small businesses first as we make these investments." 

The plan recognizes a strong economy isn't only about creating jobs, but requires a focus on our state's people and communities as well. That's why MI New Economy has three pillars, each of which has specific and ambitious goals that will help state officials track progress on efforts to build a stronger and more resilient Michigan.  

Pillar 1: Grow the Middle Class - No economic vision for the state can be complete if it doesn't focus on eliminating poverty and lifting families into the middle class.  

• Goal: 60% of adults with a postsecondary credential by 2030  

• Goal: Lift 100,000 families out of working poverty during the next five years (FY22-FY26)  
• Goal: Provide access to low or no cost childcare for 150,000 more families by 2024  

Pillar 2: Support Small Business - To supplement the great economic development work our state already does, Michigan needs a focus on creating and growing more Main Street businesses.  

• Goal: Top 10 state for small business job growth and revenue growth from 2022 to 2026  
• Goal: Top 10 state for household income growth during the next five years (FY22-FY26)  

• Goal: Top 10 state for growth in venture capital funding over the next five years (2022-2026)  

Pillar 3: Build Strong Communities - Michigan's residents deserve to live in vibrant communities with the kinds of services and amenities associated with a high standard of living.  

• Goal: 100% access to high-speed internet and 95% adoption by households during the next five years, while continually investing in higher quality access (FY22-FY26)  
• Goal: 75,000 new or rehabilitated housing units in five years (FY22-FY26) 

"This plan will result in better jobs, better skills, more people re-entering the labor force and more people staying - and moving to - Michigan," Lt. Governor Garlin Gilchrist II. "It will result in a new economy, a better economy, one that expands economic opportunity and prosperity for all." 

These pillars address the state's largest economic challenges: 

• There are too many jobs that don't pay enough - over 1 million households are living in working poverty.  
• Too many Michiganders are forced to delay life-saving medical procedures and car repairs, skip prescription refills and meals, and make incredibly difficult choices to meet their basic needs.   
• In 2019 before the pandemic, 38% of households did not make enough to make ends meet, and an additional 10% are right on the edge.  
• There aren't enough workers to fill open jobs. Our unemployment rate is lower than the national average, but our labor force participation has been behind for a decade.   

• Today, it stands at 59%, or 42nd in the nation. At the turn of the century, it was 68.8% and has fallen since then.  
• There aren't enough Michiganders with the skills necessary to fill high-skill jobs. We need to meet our Sixty by 30 goal to boost incomes and improve long-term outcomes for working families.  
• There isn't enough entrepreneurship in Michigan. For several years, we have been below average job growth for microbusinesses and second stage companies.  
• Housing is unattainable or unaffordable in several communities. High-speed internet connection is lacking in certain areas and we face an above average shortage of renters and potential homeowners. 

MI New Economy also builds on some of the most recent initiative successes that have helped Michigan build back successfully: 

• Michigan established Michigan Reconnect and Futures for Frontliners to put 167,000 Michiganders and counting on a tuition-free path to higher education and skills training. Nearly 23,000 were already enrolled in classes last winter and summer semesters. 
• The Poverty Task Force released its first set of 35 policy recommendations designed to drive down Michigan's 37% ALICE (asset limited, income constrained, employed) rate with sustainable strategies that center equity as a goal.   
• Through a $1 million investment, the MI Tri-Share pilot program has helped Michigan families afford childcare by dividing the cost equally between employees, their employer and the State of Michigan. 

• From March 2020 through March 2021, MEDC launched 23 economic relief programs and deployed nearly $240 million in small business relief across all 83 Michigan counties.  
• To address housing needs, MSHDA has financed $637.2 million in housing projects that created or preserved 7,467 units since Fiscal Year 2020. 

• Governor Whitmer created the Michigan High-Speed Internet Office (MIHI) to make high-speed internet more affordable and accessible. 

"Michigan cannot achieve a prosperous, equitable economy without vibrant communities. Investments in core assets like housing and broadband internet are essential to making our state more attractive both to existing residents and the entrepreneurs and workforce of the future," said Luke Forrest, Executive Director, Community Economic Development Association of Michigan (CEDAM). "On behalf of hundreds of community-based organizations, we stand ready to help achieve this MI New Economy vision."  

To learn more about the MI New Economy plan, the state's economic and workforce challenges and successes the state has seen to date, visit www.michigan.gov/MINewEconomy.