Dark Money in the Michigan Supreme Court?

 I like to keep up on the political news and find out what is going on around the state. I read an article entitled "How dark money is permeating Michigan’s Supreme Court race" by  Lauren Gibbons. The article is well written and provides some political fairness when discussing the topic. What I like most is that she is able to cover the topic from a neutral standpoint of how money influence politics and even our legal environment. Reporting and discussing these issues helps us stay focused on the meaning and purpose of justice beyond its political ends. 

It should be remembered that we have two major parties within this country and that each of them has their own deep philosophical and social roots. It means that there are people and parties all connected together. Deep divisions between these two parties causes some of our current problems. The way in which people now see their world seems radically different even though both parties essentially want similar things when it comes to their country's health.

The court is where we want as much neutrality as possible. The media have a responsibility to discuss topics fairly and objectively to highlight areas needed for improvement. While "dark money" may or may not be an actual problem...discussing it publicly helps us think about how money and influence do flow through the system. Highlighting and being transparent ensures that the money doesn't become a problem down the road if it isn't a problem yet.

Our legal system is an important institution that is central to the basic trust in society and the government itself. We do know we have people protesting and some are questioning the logic of the system and its fairness to some members of society. Good or bad, right or wrong, Right or Left, these discussions are helpful to ensure that punishments fit the crime and are based in sound reason and moral purpose. We still associate with that higher order when we use the Supreme Court phrase, "Sat Cito Si Recte" which means "Soon enough if done rightly."

That motto gives an indication that true justice comes from taking the time and energy to understand a situation before making rulings and judgements. The end result is truer Justice which comes from deep reflection, insight, and awareness of truth as it relates to people and institutions. Judge too quickly and you become part of the problem...judge too far out and justice isn't served. Having an objective, non-partisan media, helps our court system fulfill a higher duty of disseminating "justice" in society.

COVID Protection Legislation-38th District U.P. Michigan

If you are a business owner in Michigan, especially the U.P., you will want to keep up with the new rules, regulations, and legislative changes. There have been a number of changes that have helped U.P. residents. It is helpful for people and businesses to be aware of these changes so as to navigate the local environment (...especially as it relates to COVID).

Senator McBroom's release provides details on the Covid Protection help. If your so inclined to watch politics, especially local politics, you may want to view his webpage and sign up for these releases just to keep aware. SenatorEdMcBroom.com It may also be beneficial for you to check out any Democrat candidates to create a rounder perspective of what is important to both parties. That is what helps us understand what the area needs and what the stakeholders need. Remember politics is about helping our people and country...and we will have to work across the isle. 

Explanations were.......

"Senate Bills 886 and 911 would continue unemployment benefits for up to 26 weeks for eligible workers out of work due to the COVID-19 pandemic. SB 1108 would allow boards of local governments and other public entities to meet electronically for a limited time.

SB 1094 would reduce the spread of COVID-19 in nursing homes by implementing recommendations of the Nursing Homes COVID-19 Preparedness Task Force. Among other things, this bill requires the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services in consultation with LARA to implement a process to create Care and Recovery Centers within nursing homes for individuals who have tested positive for COVID-19.

House Bill 6159 would provide liability protections for health care providers for services related to the COVID-19 pandemic, and HB 6192 would extend expiration deadlines for Michigan driver’s licenses and vehicle registrations until Dec. 31, 2020."

3Q 2020 GDP Rises 33.1%-Could Manufacturing/Export Improvements be Coming?

I'm watching the markets and trying to gain a grasp of what the market is doing and how our abilities to adapt as well as the changes in the market due to the pandemic impact our export abilities. This is a blog post so I'm not going to justify everything I say or use citations for a basic discussion. However, the information presented is based in solid logic and in general research support. What I am mostly interested in is the connection of pre-markers that signal a fundamental change in the economy that would hint at a specific type of recovery.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) provides information and data for public consumption. It is important for governments to provide this type of information so that companies, investors, intellectuals, etc... can try and make meaning out of the information for business decision making as well as gauge our current economic health.  The BEA came out with some powerful GDP improvements in Q3 2020 mounting to a 33.1% increase.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis provides the following explanation...."The increase in real GDP reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in federal government spending (reflecting fewer fees paid to administer the Paycheck Protection Program loans) and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2)."

The IMF seemed low as a benchmark for the U.S. so my argument is that it will likely be much higher than expected based on the uniqueness of the economy as having a number of central supply chain hubs. I wrote a little article about how I think they were a little low and there might be a different projection for the U.S.  What the IMF is Right and Wrong About on their Economic Projections for the U.S.?  A boost in GDP may also create a little more investment rip environment.

Based on the theoretical assumptions I have been working off of, I believed that Q3 and Q4 are likely to be strong quarters. It is an adaption kind of concept with a little chaos theory mixed in. It is important to remember that all economics is the measurement of human activity regardless of the currency or measurements we use. Thus, we must understand human behavior and financial behavior to better understanding of the market and how they interplay to create improvements/declines.

You can read a bout a few of these projections. GDP Contracts 1st Q of 2020-Is It a Short Lived Shock and Digital GDP Recovery? After the first major economic contraction we found that the fundamentals of the society stayed the same and he investment markets were strong. We can also see this in the Q3 BEA statistics that are showing how there is money that can be used for investment, purchases, and general capital availability that move beyond government stimulus. 

What I might consider looking at as well are any export and inventory markers that would indicate subtle shifts from important to export orientation.  There has been some indication that there could be a shift in import and export ratios when we see the trade gap narrow recently. You can read Delta County Great Lakes Shipping Infrastructure-Opportunities for National Exports!

While we have some indication that exports are improving there doesn't appear to be as much movement there as there was in GDP improvement. What we might want to watch is Q4 GDP numbers and if by the beginning of the Q4 if we will see a bump in exports as well. Many nations are beginning to think about post-COVID life and a number of companies/people may have delayed purchases which could be realized if we see sales in heavy equipment and inventory (as a precursor to purchases).

No idea if it will happen. So far it seems to be fairly close to projections. I'm not a career economist just a person with advance degrees in business and significant economic understandings.

Let's Put Stimulus Where it Counts! Building Diverse Business Ownership and Economic Competitiveness

Stimulus conversation is in buzz and lawmakers are thinking through all of the different ways to enhance economic activities. The problem many of these lawmakers faces is that they are fighting over not only the amount but also where the money is going to be spent. Personally, I think we can enhance our long term infrastructure that leads to increased economic opportunity and the biggest bang for the buck if we do something a little different and really focus on fostering investment rich economic environments (i.e. clusters) that bring prosperity to our diverse young population.

We have old cities and we have a trade war with China. There are protesters on the streets and general distrust of government  is on the rise. There is extremism and hate brewing on both sides of the political perspective. Few things can get done if we are all fighting. I'm going to make some very basic and probably incorrect assumptions here. 

1. Our politicians want our country to succeed and would be willing to put aside their differences to pass a plan that has a large economic impact. 

2. As a nation we want to solve the systemic racism problem and move forward in our national development as a unified people with the same basic assumptions of our institutions (i.e. justice, government, etc...).

3. We want to be at the center of the global economic supply chain and create economic prosperity for our children. 

If these are three very basic assumptions (and probably not completely accurate) that we can sort of agree on then we must ask ourselves what policies in terms of stimulus are going to help us on multiple fronts. To me we have a need to prepare the Millennials and develop a creative export oriented economy. That requires us to align our current physical structure to the global market using the innovative capacity of the new digital economy. We are not just investing in one time programs that do nothing but investing in the communities ability to compete on the global market. 

That will require us to think about how to create some economic equity that is likely to create a net positive return on society. We know cities still maintain some of its industrial infrastructure (prior to outsourcing) and we know that Millennials (of different backgrounds) like enjoy a more diverse metro life. We also know they are likely to be poorer than previous generations. Perhaps we can equalize and fix some problems if we work to realign our cities to the global market while at the same time create investment rich export oriented cities that impact minorities heavily. Moving forward all of our youth must come along together as a sign of a more universal society ready to tackle the global markets for the future of our beliefs and way of life.

Here is a pretty cool article about stimulus plans by Jacob Mitchell "Democrats & Republicans: Two pathways, one destination for markets"

Protest Goals?-Encouraging Pro Business Urban Environments

Watching the protests a few blocks away, hearing the helicopters, the BLM signs in all of the store windows, police sirens, ambulances and chanting crowds.  Each morning the chaos becomes quiet as though there was some battle the evening before and everyone went home for donuts and coffee. What is often left behind are broken windows, burnt cars, looted stores, injured officers, arrested protestors and lots and lots of headline news. The problem is that is that real change comes from changing the environment. There is the raising awareness side and there is a practical side to raising local opportunities for personal and economic growth.

I'm not sure shutting down the downtowns or damaging downtown property is the best approach. Sure, getting destructive does raise awareness for a cause but also associates that cause with negative images in the viewers eyes (i.e. the consumer of information and BLM values).  If the strategy is to raise awareness of a global economy and global justice where everyone is treated with dignity then one might consider being more business and investment friendly to raise opportunities. 

I'm not ignorant of what discrimination and hatred look like. My children are mixed race and thus seen by some members of society as "lower than". I also have a Muslim name and no matter how much I have served my country or things I have done in my life (good and bad) some people can't move beyond their own ignorance to see what the essential values of being an American are. What started a little as a college experiment ended up more providing insight into the deep roots of hate and racism. 

Being destructive is a short-term strategy that damages the brand of the movement and the very real and genuine need for more equality in society (Personal I think we need a truer form of capitalism as BLM, 99%,etc... are talking about similar perspectives of opportunity and access to decision making). A much better strategy would be to encourage business to develop in the area, push government to spur international investments in local communities, and foster an education system that meets and beats market needs. That would require a lot of societal stakeholders to be on the same page of our national interests (Maybe we need to save ourselves from our ourselves 👀🤔. 

I have been working on a theory that may or may not have merit in the future but is good enough to talk on this blog about (A big economic puzzle). So far it appears to be doing a pretty good job at explaining a post COVID Digital GDP type economy (even though the theory is fully complete yet but its framework is functional). The theory discusses methods of attracting businesses and realigning them through a cluster approach which creatives innovative and investment rich environments that encourage adaptation. Its not finished but ....HERE.

When we realign our local industries we can produce products the global market needs. Many of the complaints of discrimination are based in economic justices and lack of opportunities.  By realigning cities as centers of entrepreneurial activity and innovative manufacturing we can create new opportunities in a way that most people (right and left) would agree with. New development helps people to create employment opportunities, diversify/integrate our cities, and help our national economy at the same time. 

Thus one long term strategy might be to leave the businesses alone and encourage more to move downtown to create clusters. Retail is great for bringing in foot traffic but moving toward firms and new businesses has long term regional value. If we are going to have true equality we need opportunities that attract and enhance Millennial talent (This is an egalitarian group that needs more opportunities.). Let's become competitive as a nation and improve the "investability" and livability (i.e. green cities) for enriching environments that helps Americans fully develop their personal abilities. That would be in stark contrast to the old dilapidated and trash covered downtowns of the modern era that provide almost no opportunity or hope. We can redesign our cities and our education to create new national competitivness (...of course we can continue to use the same policies by the same thinkers. I think COVID and the digital economy might be challenging many of the assumption of older theories now).

Are we going to have a big GDP growth 3Q 2020?

The Fed is expecting to announce a huge GDP growth. I don't know what that means but by the end of the year it is hoped we have a full recovery and by the end of Q1 2021 we see improvements over pre-Covid closures. With any luck we could even find a big bump 2-3 years down the road. 

Between Empathy and Firmness in Employee Management

 Most people who have managed others will attest there are all types of personalities and a spectrum of motivation levels. The hardest part of managing people are the employee problems that creep up that have little to do with work. These are family problems, crisis problems, and issues that distract from the work setting. We also know that things come up and we have to adjust and change to help our employees. However, there are some that seem to always have problems those are the ones where empathy and firmness can work together. 

Its not easy to find that balance. You want to be flexible and give people an opportunity to overcome their own personal issues while at the same time trying to better ensure people are focused on the organization's tasks and goals. 

I believe one of the better approaches is to offer flexibility in the first incident and increased gradation for punishment thereafter. There is a point where someone has to perform and personal problems can't always be resolved in the workplace. Once ok...twice we might have an issue kind of thinking.

I've seen people swing the pendulum too far in either direction. Too light and people take advantage and too hard you loose some great candidates. Finding that spot where you can put together a fair and consistent approach can be helpful. 

One could write these approaches into the policy book or they can make them part of the unwritten cultural expectations of the workplace. There are risks to either way as differences in treatment can lead to questioning. If it is written in stone you are going to be stuck to that policy even when someone is "gaming" the system while at the same time unwritten explanations often hold up in court.