Are we going to have a big GDP growth 3Q 2020?

The Fed is expecting to announce a huge GDP growth. I don't know what that means but by the end of the year it is hoped we have a full recovery and by the end of Q1 2021 we see improvements over pre-Covid closures. With any luck we could even find a big bump 2-3 years down the road. 

Between Empathy and Firmness in Employee Management

 Most people who have managed others will attest there are all types of personalities and a spectrum of motivation levels. The hardest part of managing people are the employee problems that creep up that have little to do with work. These are family problems, crisis problems, and issues that distract from the work setting. We also know that things come up and we have to adjust and change to help our employees. However, there are some that seem to always have problems those are the ones where empathy and firmness can work together. 

Its not easy to find that balance. You want to be flexible and give people an opportunity to overcome their own personal issues while at the same time trying to better ensure people are focused on the organization's tasks and goals. 

I believe one of the better approaches is to offer flexibility in the first incident and increased gradation for punishment thereafter. There is a point where someone has to perform and personal problems can't always be resolved in the workplace. Once ok...twice we might have an issue kind of thinking.

I've seen people swing the pendulum too far in either direction. Too light and people take advantage and too hard you loose some great candidates. Finding that spot where you can put together a fair and consistent approach can be helpful. 

One could write these approaches into the policy book or they can make them part of the unwritten cultural expectations of the workplace. There are risks to either way as differences in treatment can lead to questioning. If it is written in stone you are going to be stuck to that policy even when someone is "gaming" the system while at the same time unwritten explanations often hold up in court. 

What is it like to Fitness Train for Outdoor Sports?

 I'm a little bit of an outdoor enthusiast and engage in outdoor sports. I would love to consider climbing Mount Everest someday. Some might wonder what it is like to train for extreme sports and activities. The wild is not like sports played in a controlled environment. The outdoors is nature and holds real risks for people beyond sprained ankles and bruised egos. 

There is lots of learning. Whenever I can I read about the topic, watch videos, and engage in a community of people who do these types of activities. Having as much knowledge as possible before heading out on a risky adventure can make a big difference. 

For example, this morning it is cold (i.e. 20 degrees) and freezing and wind is whipping making it feel much colder. It is also 4:30 in the morning and I'm having a quick cup of coffee before I head out to jog around Big Bear Lake. 

Sure....I could go to a gym and workout in comfort. Yet that doesn't mimic what happens in the real world on the side of a mountain where the wind can knock you off of a cliff face. Add some snow and things can get real tricky (likely why I have to go to the U.P. and Colorado to do some ice climbing). 

It would be much better to stay in bed and sleep. However, it wouldn't be as meaningful life as I could make it. It would sort of just be "safe" and normal. I guess I'm just not normal and enjoy challenges when they are worth the effort. 

The real reward is how you feel when you are done. You went out and ran in the cold! You trained and you did most of your workout while most people are still sleeping. As your body gets into better shape and you get closer to your goals...you can take pleasure in taking the road less traveled. 

Done with coffee! Brrrrrrrr!

Michigan Has Opportunities for Growth-Political Protectionism?

I'm reading an article by Scott Lincicome entitled by "Tariffs, Michigan and the Perils of 'Political Protectionism" from Cato at Liberty. I must say I like what he did here in terms of putting together data on a scatter plot and showing how tariffs have an impact in 2018 and 2019. I think that most of us would expect these short term adjustments in the import and export market. There can be no change without adjustment and we should expect to see that within the data. 

Where the "proof in the pudding" will be is in the 2021 and 2022 years where the risks of COVID decline, new factors like online transition, and where organizations have adjusted to new import/export adjustments, and then in turn develop stronger strategies to meet market demand (assuming they have the capacity to do so). 

I guess that is the point of challenging China now versus a decade down the road when our manufacturing has been further hampered and we are not in the same place. There are risks to every strategy but typically it is best to challenge when a long-term risk is recognized and you still have the capacity to take a dominant position in the market. That doesn't mean it will be easy. 

Any strategy we take is going to have some risks. If we don't do anything we have long-term generational risks but if we go after the global supply chain now before they fully shift we might have a better chance.  Perhaps we lose everything but I serious doubt that will happen. If anything we might get a shift back to the U.S. and its central place in the supply chain (Let us wait and see what happens..I'm curious myself).

I agree with the author that those states that are more exposed to the import and export market are going to have the biggest changes that in turn create more adjustments in economic markets that hint at certain outcomes. Markets exposed to the global economy are also subject to that market. Thus far many of these states seem to have been impacted more by import changes than export changes (I would like to see the regression on the scatterplot). 

Here is an article that discusses how China has been matching us U.S. China Comes Close to Passing the U.S. in Doctors, Patents and Scientific Discoveries. We are at a cross roads to act or to not act at this time....so there is lots of room for debate. 

I suspect we will take a hit for a short time as companies in the U.S. begin to bring back operations, supply chains, etc... in order to manufacture more at home. That all takes time. One complex factor that has come into the mix is COVID-19 that changed some of the fundamentals but in turn disrupted existing supply chains and habits in a way that could be a long-term strategic advantage if we learn to adapt to new digital GDP models and advanced manufacturing. I wrote something here about the risk and benefits of a trade war with China...Trade War...Good or Bad?

Let's Not Forget Michigan in National Politics

National politics are important and we should pay attention. In our desire to engage in national debates let  our politicians not forget about the needs of Michigan. Each of the parties has their mantras, beliefs, pulpit topics, and party line requirements. Money is flowing in and its likely to become a very contentious race. What we don't want to do is forget the needs of Michigan. 

First, localized government is more responsive to the needs of the people. Each individual vote makes a difference in the process of government management. While we may not always feel connected to national politics we should feel connected to our local politics. 

It should also be important to note that our politicians work for people who adhere to both parties. That means Republicans also work for people who vote Democrat and Democrats have responsibilities  over people who vote republican. 

We are not voting for one side or another as much as we about the needs of our state and the needs of Michigan people. Thus, local needs should really filter through the process and national party politics should be tapered by local needs. 

Michigan has work to do in terms of its education systems, attracting investment, equality, small business, and bring back high paying jobs. We are centrally located in the Great Lakes and haven't truly mastered our geographic location and state skills to reconnect and compete on the global market. While national politics influences our local needs it is our local needs that should be part of our national politics. 

When Regulations are Helpful and Unhelpful?

Regulations are a necessary part of modern life. Let people do what they want and the last thing they think about is the impact on the environment community. We also need our industries working toward the health and strength of their nation and people. Regulations are an important part of nudging industries forward and protecting the greater good. However, regulations can be harmful and/or helpful and we need to keep both in mind when making a decision. 

If we have no regulations we have problems and if we have too many regulations then we have different kinds of problems. Regulation should be used when there is no way to get industry to self-regulate. Government provides the goals but industry determines the best way to reach those goals; unless they shirk their greater responsibility. 

Much of the choices at the senior leadership positions are based in making choices to follow or not follow regulations. Sometimes it can be seen as a cost factor that makes no difference beyond the cost of the regulation (i.e. violations as a business cost). 

As much as we can we should conduct a situation analysis to determine which regulations make sense and which one's don't. Some will create net positive value and some may be well meaning but don't really make much of a difference. Law makers should think about removing those restrictions and regulations that make no real difference and implement those that are more protective toward society. 

Overcoming Difficult Backgrounds-Stand on Your Own Two Feet

I come from a difficult background, one of those that would make most people either cringe or cry. People often feel they will be limited by their backgrounds and that they are doomed to whatever lot they started out in life. I'm here to say that this isn't necessarily true. Yes...you will be limited by the beliefs others taught you but you can overcome those limitations if you learn to self-reflect. Where I grew up image is everything. I've had some very good people in my life and I appreciate them and honor them but there were some very cruel individuals suffering from mental health (This is one reason why we have to deal with mental health better. People who suffer can often be sadistic to others). 

It would be a shame to live one's whole life and never share any wisdom or knowledge you may have picked up over the years. Some people may need that advice and are wondering how they may reach out past the "cave" in which they grew up. 

First, let me say that I had and still maintain some desire to go into politics. While I have a political party I have more interest in helping my country then serving myself.  I'm not easily blinded by ideology and have spent a good amount of time studying ideology and learning how there are root assumptions in political, religious, and ethnic parties. 

1. You learn to give when you come from a difficult background. 

Second the values we are taught are not always the values we should keep and carry. For example, in the world I grew up in I have had very few words of encouragement and had to develop my own personal belief systems about what is right and wrong. I spent a lot of time studying religion and other people to come to a sense of moral rightness. Understanding is the first key to doing....and you will stumble often.

2. Challenge the erroneous beliefs others have taught you. 

Third, capitalizing on the skills you have learned. Because I have been on my own since childhood in terms of completing school, solving life problems, and for the most part taking care of myself I have develop skills of self-resilience. Where most people would have been crushed by difficult situations that seemingly don't have a solution to persevering and making your own course in life. I think that will serve me well in politics...the ability to think and act on my own volition. Yes I can work with others but won't be one who blindly follows ideology and rhetoric...I have seen a lot of "lip service" in my life. One person even hinted that if I state the truth of what happened they will exploit my Muslim name with local law enforcement...and they did...and while local law enforcement realized the false information...no one went back to hold them accountable (Its worse then the video of the woman calling the police and saying a dangerous Black man was threatening her because he aske her to put her dog on a leash in a public park).

3. Capitalize on your skills you learned to overcome difficult people and situations. 

Fourth, understand the skills that were inherent in your being. One of the advantages, and sometimes disadvantages I faced, is a very high IQ. It took me decades to recognize it because most people called me dumb, put me down, or simply lied (I heard Einstein was treated that way). Yes...as I child I dealt with childhood trauma but after a number of IQ studies and assessments I am diagnosed with a Genius IQ level and as of present no other mental health issues. Its not what people think...I still make lots of spelling errors....its just a way of thinking and connecting information. 

4. Learn to enhance your innate skills. 

Fifth, always keep in mind that the things people tell you about yourself isn't always true. Many of these people were dealing with their own issues but have almost no self-reflection on how their early loss has created a cold, judgmental, and dishonest personality. They lack any real awareness about how their self-perceptions and perceptions of others are skewed to cover their own feelings of loss the worthlessness. Don't expect them to ever do to the right things in life if it challenges their delusional self-importance.

5. Those who judge often struggle with self-image issues. 

Sixth, own what is yours and let them own what is theirs. We are not perfect people but I'm a pretty good person. I don't always think about myself first and try and do what is right even though it doesn't always benefit myself. A lot of people are so self-consumed they build these elaborate justifications for self-gratification (i.e. this becomes very apparent in incidents of money such as inheritance). There is little to no recourse legally for such behaviors so when people have "gamed" the system you are unlikely to have someone step in protect people's rights. Some people will go to any length to advantage themselves at all costs. That includes lying, bullying, encouraging violence, providing false information all for these little pieces of paper that have no value beyond the subjective value we give them.

6. Know what you own and what is someone else's. Often there is little to no legal protections for criminal behavior (especially when such people are considered "locals" so protect your boundaries at all costs.

At my age, I don't really care much what people think about me. I have been judged much of my life for things that have absolutely nothing to do with me. Yet...in our older age we understand how these abusive backgrounds can lead to insight into the nature of people and our responsibility to help others. Running for politics, inventing helpful economic models, encouraging orphans and the downtrodden to state their needs, and to fight against immoral/unethical practices are important. While I agree with all this I'm also a big believer in building a strong economy where people can realize their full potential; no matter what their background. I would love to contribute to making out nation just a little better.  We cannot switch one background for another but we can help make the world a better place so that others don't have to trail blaze each time they fight against injustice. Trust me, when you deal with narcissistic personality issues there will never be a way of pleasing the unpleasable.  Most of the time you will be very much alone in your endeavors as most people view the world by very superficial images and impressions often take precedence over truth.  

I believe in justice..just not the self-serving kind that limit people's ability for resolution and accountability. There will be a lot of people who will likely thwart someone with a Muslim name and a more universal belief in the value of all religions from going into politics. That is the inherent discrimination and bias in society when good people cannot come forward because they don't fit a magazine image of what modern politicians look like. Image might get one voted in but it thus far hasn't done much for anyone. 

Mountain Hiking-Preparing for Mount Everest

Mount Everest is a big hill and I'm starting the process of preparing. I'm hiking for a concept of Justice and how we need a universal justice system so that all people in the U.S. feel part of the same society. I'm not advocating for different sides but I'm just trying to raise some awareness for how things should be, how we should view each other, and how we treat each other. Bigotry, racism, hate, anti-American beliefs, etc....are no longer acceptable in a global society. We must be much more open to superficial differences if we hope to truly engage in the global market. We should also consider the economic benefits of full engagement of 50% +/- minorities in the educational, labor, and entrepreneurial markets. 

Offering Educational Services on an Industry and National Scale

A few days ago I was a moderator in an conference on the topic of UN Sustainable Development goals. Much of the discussion revolved around the cost of education and how we have Western perceptions of higher education but many countries may not need the same level of theoretical ideas and should be much more practical. That discussion brought up an opportunity to consider national scale higher education offerings. 

Let us say that we looked at a country's GDP and their needs 15-20 years down the road. We may find that we need 10K people to work in technology, 5K in military skills, etc.... Each of these are then broken down into specific skill sets that can be taught. 

I wonder if it is possible to offer packages to countries of higher education offerings. While these offerings may come from American universities we do know that online education is opening new opportunities. It wouldn't be far fetched to offer to open a certain amount of educational slots for particular prices. 

There are likely to be lots of issues and people will find exceptions. I'm only saying that it is an idea and that is how things start. Most countries have enough statistical information to calculate approximately how much of each skill they may need. 

This would be one way big data can work within the higher education sector. One could offer a wholesale educational plans for sectors of an economy. That education may be catered to that sector and the nation/region in which it exists. 

It does sort of bring up the idea of is it wise to offer streamlined "watered down" or "efficient skills based" education; depending on how you view the situation. 

How Jogging is Making a Difference in My Waistline

 One of the things I used to hate the most was jogging. It is almost no fun at all. Running for the heck of running and getting hot and exerting energy first thing in the morning was definitely not for me!  If I miss my job I am very unlikely to jog after I take a shower. Despites all of its negative aspects one thing that does seem to make sense is that engaging in the activity of jogging helps your waistline much more than any other activities. 

Covid helps me rethink my strategy and I'm happy it did. I always gravitated toward the gym. Yes...the gym still should be part of the workout and we should try and gain additional muscle tone. However, it isn't the most important thing. 

To really get in shape we have to increase our heart rate. We can jog, speed walk, sprint, and walk, HIT train and just about anything else that improve our cardio condition. 

Now its one of the first things I think about when I get up. I'm not sure how long my enthusiasm lasts but so far it has been a few weeks. After the initial calm spasms when starting they have not subsided as my body responds.