Dealing with Unclear Business Decisions: Application of Evidence Based Thinking Principles?

Graduating MBA students are taught to think critically and use evidence in their decision making. When the information isn't there they will need some way of making sense out of market fogginess. Utilizing evidence based decision making will help you think critically about decisions but also be able to develop new research that can lead to novel market findings. Using evidence and filling in the gaps when information is missing is part of what innovation is all about. Helping graduate students understand evidence based decision making and how to dealing with market ambiguity is important. 

While it doesn't always make financial sense to continue to dig for more information it does make sense to use some type of model to understand ambiguous information and make sense of it. One of the reasons why it is so frustrating is because there are lots of different possible outcomes and it takes a while to sort through all the different ways things connect and reconnect. Lots of mental spaghetti. 

Strategic decisions rely heavily on data to minimize risks and when data is missing they must learn to deal with it effectively. One of the ways to do this is to move through a check list to see that you covered the most important basis for narrowing your choices. 

1. Make sure you know what your goal is so that you can weigh all decisions on their achievement of the goal/objective. 

2. Organize data points chronologically or thematically. If you are trying to create a time line then you will want chronological that leads to trending. You may also want thematic information that seeks to group concepts to capture insight into certain potential choices. 

3. When you find gaps in the data then you should go out and find some more data if its available. Know specifically what you are trying to answer based on your goal/objective and see if there is available market data. If you can't use other's research you may have a unique problem and need to go it alone by creating new research........

4. Conduct research from existing data sources or create new data sources when there are important questions unanswered. For most companies they can use existing research but some companies may need new research to make important decisions. 

5. Analyze the information for association, causation, trends, patterns, etc... Look at your data from multiple viewpoints and uses. 

6. Organize and display the information in a useful way of understanding and maximizing its value to stakeholders (academic or industry). Sharing your research leads to a stronger body of knowledge and more innovators in society. 

7. Decisions should be focused on what might be logically connected, what areas are supported, the understanding of potential risks, and what are the most likely scenarios and outcomes. You can consider ranking the importance of goals as well as developing a strength rating (i.e. 1-100) to create a final value for any decisions you make. If it doesn't work then you got some of the methodology or calculations wrong and you can take that feedback to improve your model for another round of decision making. 

Critically based evidence decision making is an ideal form of making business decisions. However, when information is missing you should use some type of more formal analysis to better map (i.e. game theory, decision tree, etc...) that can better help you more objectively take a look at the information. Nothing is truly objective but can be more or less objective than sticking your finger in the air to determine the next course of direction. As the quality of the data sources, research and triangulated sources rises so does the "business intelligence" use of critical thinking models. 

Education Research Service Projects (ERSP) by The American Educational Research Association

 Education Research Service Projects Program

Special Call for Proposals

Deadline: August, 31, 2020

 

The American Educational Research Association is currently accepting proposals for a special cycle of Education Research Service Projects (ERSP) initiative grants to address the dual pandemics facing education and learning in formal and informal contexts: COVID-19 and systemic racism. AERA’s Education Research Service Projects initiative encourages education researchers to offer their pro bono expertise to educational organizations, institutions, or other community groups that have identified and expressed a need for such assistance. The ERSP initiative provides small grants ranging from $1,000 to $5,000 to defray direct costs involved in these projects.

 

Special Call for Projects Focusing on the

COVID-19 and Systemic Racism Pandemics

The COVID-19 pandemic has shuttered the physical places where education formally takes place in the United States and across the globe, from childcare through graduate education. The broad impact of school closures on student well-being and academic outcomes as well as uncertainties about what education will look like in the months ahead are introducing new challenges and raising new questions for educators, institutions, and families related to the safe, effective and equitable provision of education at all levels. Simultaneously, educators and students are also facing the persistent reality of systemic racism in the United States. The recent murder of George Floyd by a police officer in Minneapolis and the public outcry highlighting longstanding inequities in our education system have prompted many schools and other organizations to look more closely at the manifestations and implications of systemic racism. In the current context, there are increasing opportunities for education researchers to leverage their expertise in ways that are relevant to addressing these pandemics at the local level and serve the public good.

 

As part of AERA’s efforts to respond to the impact of these dual pandemics, a special call for Education Research Service Projects invites proposals that address through research service: COVID-19, systemic racism, or the intersection of the two. Education researchers are encouraged to submit proposals to offer their expertise, on a pro-bono basis, to address issues and questions related to these pandemics that educational entities or settings (e.g., childcare supports or services, schools, school systems, colleges and universities, community organizations) are currently facing.

 

The special call builds upon the Education Research Service Project Initiative’s broad aim to engender a culture of service that is responsive to significant needs at the local level and to support education researchers in using their skills and expertise to serve the public good.

 

The proposal deadline is Monday, August 31, 2020. For more information, please see the Special Call and Guidelines. If you have questions about the special call or the ERSP program, email edresearch@aera.net.

Jim Paulsen Chief Investment Strategist Discusses Investment Breadth and Concerns

Investment is highly important for our country as companies are launched and financed through our markets. I'm trying to learn more about big investments and how it might impact places like Delta County Michigan that have potential for investment in local businesses and tourist related micro-manufacturing. Investments can lead to long-term development of multiple income streams.  

To that end the video discusses small cap stocks and diversification. I'm wondering if a city/county could create an investment fund that would allow larger investors who want to finance local business can buy into the fun and local business mix. 

Within each fund is a battery of local businesses that helps investors build a market through investment planning. It will also allow multiple businesses to grow together. For example, if I wanted to spark a micro tourism manufacturing clusters I might have small businesses with that cluster in one fund. Therefore, investment money moves directly into that cluster and those businesses that are likely to create the highest return on investment. 

That might be a good idea if investing in packs with larger funds leading to high growth for the individual business and even higher for the fund as a number of businesses that are growing and developing off of each other within a high innovation market lead to even higher growth rates. 

I'm not sure if it has been done. Probably it has been done a lot. Yet if can try and create these special funds (assuming they don't already exist) we can push innovation up faster than investing in individual businesses alone. New industries and new businesses for Millennial might be a good thing. 

Michigan Gov. Whitmer COVID-19 Briefing 8/25/2020

You may want to watch the video. Flu shots and business opening. What she says about flu shots makes some sense especially if the risks are low, its covered under most people's plans and readily accessible. There is no need to compound problems unless it is necessary. Since the two diseases have similarities they want to risk compounded variables. Also if there is a preventative aspect then it might be wise to get one. 

Republican and Democrat National Convention 2020 Day 1

 Republican National Convention Day 1....

Democrat National Convention Day 1....

Kenosha Shooting: Now is the Time for Our Nation to Think About Long Term Solutions

 Kenosha Wisconsin shooting helps us think about race and perception in our nation in a way that we have never done. Our nation is based on fundamental values that tie us together. We are in a cultural transition and there will be people lining up to ensure their perception is the loudest voice in the room. People are angry, upset, and have low levels of trust in public institutions. 

A good article to read is Illinois teen arrested in fatal shooting at Kenosha protest, police say Be forewarned there are some fairly graphic pictures in there. It provides a kind of time line of what they think happened. Its not good people!

Now is the time to think about our long term goals as a nation before more people are hurt. The roots that make up the arguments are long and they are deep touching upon national wounds. This is one of those conflicts that must be felt for national reconciliation. Its been a flash point for a long time.

Whether we accept the need for universal justice and capitalistic full economic engagement or some other competing ideology we must start to think about how we want this to turn out in the next few years and what we want our nation look like a decade down the road?

Leadership is born in times of uncertainty and now is the time for our leadership to step up to the plate and start drawing all the stakeholders together. I believe that multiple deaths have now occurred and people are coming into these areas for all types of different reasons and not all of it is about being good or doing good to others. This is one of those defining moments for our nation as it could escalate out of control very quickly. 

Thus, we must work on talking to a wide group of stakeholders of appropriate justice reform that helps our officers work well from a functional standpoint and helps officers work well within different communities. This isn't about getting soft on crime but by getting effective and building a policing and justice structure that helps good officers shine and poor officers to be plucked from the tree before they do harm.

There are reforms that make sense and would be of benefit to all the interested parties. If we can restore trust in the system within these communities we can also restore a sense of community and peace as a nation. Some possible reforms are simple such as transparency, training, community inclusion, cultural & metric adjustments, social worker assists, alternative punishments, oversite, internal investigations, stronger recruitment and termination practices, feedback loops, ....and the list can go on. 

We want everyone to be on the same page to think about how our nation is on a path to greater human freedoms and development and we must define what the next stage in human rights development will look like. Police and minority communities don't need to be against each other if they get down to the business of creating intentional dialogue on what are the things that must stay the same and what things can be changed. 

That means rethinking Justice and making improvements. The point being that we can move to a place where people worthy of a second chance get it while those who are out to harm others are safely taken out of community engagement. There are few people who would disagree with that. We can become a single nation of universal justice where police and community are working toward the same ends...building stronger communities and a stronger nation.

Maxouris, C. Ebrahimji, A. & Levenson, E. (August 26th, 2020). Illinois teen arrested in fatal shooting at Kenosha protest, police say CNN. Retrieved https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/26/us/kenosha-wisconsin-wednesday-shooting/index.html

You may be interested in the twitter posting by the Kenosha Police Department

pic.twitter.com/2skV5edTUE

— Kenosha Police Dept. (@KenoshaPolice) August 26, 2020

Postmaster General Louis DeJoy Defends Changes

 The post office debate is a big one and I won't go too far into it as it is highly contentious. I do understand the need to reform systems and the revenue needed to support their existence but I also understand the vital nature of service this institutions provides. Changes may also mean ensuring there are transition periods so that radical change doesn't overwhelm peoples abilities to change and adapt to changes. Pushing too hard to fast for change leads to some backlash. They call this the "human nature" of organizational strategy adjustments.

There appears to be some other political arguments as they relate to voting election time so I will just stay clear of that conversation for now. 🙈🙉🙊

Paralanguage and Communication Capabilities

Language is one of the most fundamental aspects of our life and society. Without language we are stuck with little ability to work together as a group and share resources for mutual survival. It is what helps us formulate culture and come to understand each other in a way that defines fundamental values. Understanding para-language leads to higher levels of awareness and knowledge of our social world. 

Language relies on the verbal and non-verbal information. By providing context to language through tone, volume, etc.. that are nonphonemic in nature. 

When used well paralanguage can use to support better better ideational, interpersonal and textual information that leads to stronger meaning and communication (Martin, & Zappavigna, 2019)

Typically this is done verbally but it can also be done in written form. As we become more familiar with written language we will train our brains to find written paralanguage attributes within the word choice and prose. 

Let's think of this as a potential learned skill. If you are able to increase your communication channel by better understanding paralanguage in verbal and written form you would also be able to obtain more information from communicating with others. When a conversation is important you can take the information, break it down further, and use that information more effectively. 

Martin, J. & Zappavigna, M. (2019). Embodied meaning: a systemic functional perspective on paralanguage. Functional Linguistics, (6) 1. 

Rima, A. (2019). Nonverbal Communication in Text-Based, Asynchronous Online Education. International Review of Research in Open and Distributed Learning, (10) 1.

Detail Only Available

Steve Rattner: U.S. Economy Is Still In Shambles-A Couple of Thoughts on Higher Education and Job Changes

I'm listening to the news this morning while working and thinking about what Steve Rattner, New York investment asset manager and economic commentary, was saying about a slow down in hiring. He could very well be correct in some of his predictions and warnings. As companies adapt they shed old systems and move more toward more effective emerging platforms such as virtual business structures. The virtual can make us more productive and lessens the need for costly physical presence (i.e. large office building).

It should be noted we will also find there are certain types of businesses where physical proximity during the day impact performance in a positive way. Each industry will create its own standards (more virtual or physical) based upon shared modes of business that allow such companies to work together effectively within a supply chain. 

I wonder how long this employment trend will continue as we also know that Digital GDP can speed up economic activities as organizations (and transactions) migrate online. Innovation is 3X faster with new capital investments than R&D alone. Thus the 2-5 year lead time on investments may mean we have a bump in economic performance and then a bigger bump a few years down the road as changes take full effect. 

The increase in productivity and virtual adaptation may balance out job loss with a followed up job gain. As we add new virtual jobs based on lessened need for physical presence which reduces our costs and increases profits. That money will likely be reinvested into markets that are growing thereby encourage greater structure changes and improved virtual effectiveness. 

Its this market adaptation that will raise job opportunities in new markets and slowly suck the resources out of an older system. For example, high technology manufacturing is going to take resources from other market sectors that are less profitable and put them where emerging patterns. Jobs may open up in new sectors faster than job loss if our society is creating net positive value.

These faster market changes is one reason why higher education institutions must increasingly be adaptable...which is one reason for the market based competency approach of online higher education system a couple of colleagues and I worked entitled Aligning Curriculum to Industry Needs. 

As we move through this transition we must make sure we are re-educating people to perform at their maximum capacity in industry and economic platform. There is so much that can be said here about two world society. The highly educated working virtually and the less educated stuck in jobs that require heavy physical presence which continues to leave them with the short end of the stick (i.e. generational poverty). 

To rectify this new problem we will need better online education models that will allow more people to become educated at a lower price structure. Societal adaptation occurs when we are able to push people to learn new skills and then apply them in the workplace. The technology is there to educate America's labor force for mass societal transition into the digital world. 

The chaos we experience is because we are changing our economic structure, societal structure, technology capabilities, higher education modes, etc... at one time. Trends have been moving in that direction for a long time and the Pandemic sort of launched us only half prepared into the Gail. As things begin to settle down we will see interesting economic changes. 

I'm waiting for 2020 Q3 to come out because I suspect that by the end of that Quarter we should see jobs, economy, and other things on an upward trend that in turn should be a powerful 4th quarter. Next year could see other economic improvements as people return to work and the economy speeds up with these new adaptations. A few years down the road we might see significant jumps in GDP; depending on government policies. All of this is dependent on how things turn out. 

Morning Joe (August 24th, 2020). [Youtube Video] Steve Rattner: U.S. Economy Is Still In Shambles. MSNBC https://youtu.be/fhWzRngMslQ 

Kenosha Police Shoot-Leaders Should Act To Solve the "Crisis of Trust" in Justice

We are in a time of transition and its time to start thinking about things in new ways. Its been that way a long time and yet we haven't fully grasped the concept that our society continues to move toward the free. While we will always need police, and should respect those good officers that help people, sometimes there are events that sting our moral sense and fathom the mind on how long will it take to create a proper review process so as to avoid future incidents such as this. 

HR practices follow standard protocol. If an employee receives one complaint "ok" if it is not serious...its a reason to engage in more training. If an employee receives multiple serious allegations of misconduct and we take no action we consider the term negligent if a situation such as the Kenosha Police Shooting occurs down the road. Leadership has responsibility to ensure they understand their crew and are willing to remove "bad apples" when necessary.

I must say that I know a lot of great officers and they are doing the right thing. We will need some type of policing no matter what happens going forward as there are destructive people in the world who don't follow standard value systems. However, we also need policing to be transparent and have moral values around truth that deeply respect human life. 

Weeding out bad apples raises the prestige of the department and the profession so that honorable law enforcement officers can shine through and help their communities. Without a review process we will continue to experience "snaps" like this that leads to death of a person, the arrest of an officer, tarnishing the badge, and a community (and society) already in flames!

We have some knowledgeable reforms that could help....

1. Recruit officers for personality and performance.

2. Review credible and/or repeat complaints.

3. Ensuring accountability throughout the system. 

The very start of reform begins in who we recruit (personality) from what sources (diversity) and indoctrinating them into a culture of inclusion (universal human suffrage). These aren't ideals of a philosophy book but are necessities if we want to keep the fabrics of society from unraveling. Our republic rests on certain fundamental principles that should apply to all citizens.

I have seen police corruption and coordinated racial/religious bullying and haven't seen an account made of the behavior. Highly manipulative misinformation seeking to use connections in law enforcement for their own personal agenda. Yet...without a review process, turning the "blind eye" and following up on the community's complaints we are unlikely to see changes that will have a positive impact on departmental performance outcomes.

When you read the article...... 

Civil Tights Leaders Demand Accountability in Kenosha Police Shooting you will get the sense that people don't trust leadership (Mandani, 2020). There must be an investigation and going outside the area to do that might be the best bet if local officials are unable to take care of the problem themselves. Assuming that the Justice Department is also seen as objective then it has an opportunity to come to a transparent outcome with the public. 

So we should start thinking about internal review processes that lessen risk and encourages higher performance in a way that leads to a stronger department and a stronger connection to the community. 

 People in influential positions should positively and politely change perspectives through persistent discussion that raises awareness until we are better able to understand and deal with our current problems.  Reviews and investigations are not about coming out to a specific answer as that would create additional bias to assess predetermined findings. Instead it is more about understanding the nature of what happened to ensure that it doesn't happen again. The community and law enforcement can work together to create trust if both sides come to understand the needs of the other. 

Mandani, (August 24, 2020). Civil Tights Leaders Demand Accountability in Kenosha Police Shooting. Retrieved NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/civil-rights-leaders-demand-accountability-kenosha-police-shooting-n1237916