February 2024 Jobs Are Still Strong. Some market transitions.

Thinking about the U.S. economy and whether we entered into a new phase of our development it is helpful to review the employment rate and more specifically what type of jobs are being created and which types of jobs are dissipating. Employment shifts are a type of adaptive transition from lower to higher value propositions. If we go from higher to lower value jobs then the average American, and in some cases the nation, might have some things to work on. If jobs move from lower to higher positions than society is moving in the right direction.

For the most part it looks like we are shifting still and maintaining higher levels of employment. We will always need some level of unemployment to grease the adjustment in industries and ensure that people can transition to higher value industries. When that happens we can see wages inching up in a positive way. Profits will also likely rise.

For example, what might more jobs at local government and less at federal government mean? Why are we seeing more in arts, entertainment and recreation and if that creates a trend what does that hint at for choice and culture? Look for trends and try not to get caught in normal market fluctuations. 

The following is quoted from JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – FEBRUARY 2024 

"The number of job openings changed little at 8.8 million on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class. (BEA, April, 2024, para 1)"

"On the last business day of February, the number of job openings changed little at 8.8 million; this measure is down from a series high of 12.2 million in March 2022. The rate was 5.3 percent for the third month in a row. In February, job openings increased in finance and insurance (+126,000); state and local government, excluding education (+91,000); and arts, entertainment, and recreation (+51,000). Job openings decreased in information (-85,000) and in federal government (-21,000). (See table 1.) BEA, April, 2023, Para 2)"

I like to read some of Wolf's stuff because sometimes the analysis are really good.  I don't always agree with every every thing but for the most part its lots of insightful stuff. I'm neurodivergent so if I agree with most then that is a good sign for me. I have read many analysis and didn't get how they came to the conclusion. In these articles I kind of see the line.:) 

This Labor Market Is Not Loosening Further: Fed Gets More Reason for Wait-and-See