Like many others I like to watch the big metrics and what they can potentially mean (Its a little like an economic puzzle with lots of moving pieces.). An advanced estimate of real GDP slowing to 1.6% raises some eyebrows. There has been some slowdown in the U.S. economy but for the most part it was expected there would be some slowdown by most economic forecasters. If we add on top of that geopolitical issues, inflation, partisanship & decision making (entertainment and critical thinking are different), and slowing worldwide economy one could envision that the U.S. would be impacted in some way. We don't live in a vacuum.
Now, that doesn't mean it has to be this case or we are going to for sure mirror the rest of the world. We do have opportunities to think about how to maximize productivity by maximizing immigrants onto the tax rolls and productive work (This is going to be a big political discussion and we kind of all know how that goes.), improve productivity through technology, maximize human capital through learning, and improving innovation in many industries to improve the market value of American products (I have been working on a rapid innovation theory for a while that I recently decided not to work with my 300+ pages of resources developed during theory construction and more or less just write under 100 pages of easy to understand connected concepts. I think I'm going to start this weekend. I'm not near a beach so I won't get distracted by my other great calling in life and that is beach bumming. Alas, I'm stuck with theoretical dribble that is just as likely to be untrue as true.🤷)
The question then becomes what would happen if recent immigrants were put into tax paying positions, we improved productivity through new technology, advanced human capital, and improve innovation in a synergistic way beyond recent infrastructure development? Not sure.....something to think about. 🤔 It could be like typing Google into Google or it could be a beneficial activity with helpful outcomes (Its not the end result but setting on the path that makes the difference in our national goals.)
A Few Productivity and Inflation Articles:
-Productivity does improve capacity and reduce inflationary pressure. Productivity 101MarketWatch says Supercore Inflation Rose and Productivity Down .4% ( BTW MarketWatch has a lot of interesting information for investors.) Notice how productivity and growth are related.
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