Monday, July 18, 2022

Russian Collaborators, Defensive Positions and Renewed Offensive (Can Ukraine Effectively Counter Offensive?)

 We have three interesting things going on in Ukraine. This is the moment Russia tries to take advantage of Ukrainian leadership chaos and create a final push for their strategic Plan B locations (Manufacturing and Port based. Highlights why the U.S. needs to develop their own ports, infrastructure, and innovative manufacturing.). It is also the time when Russians are hunkering down their line and in a few short weeks would likely have very difficult to retake defensive positions. Its not the that Ukrainians can't win but they will have to decide what is most important.....risking everything to get everything back or risking less to maintain a smaller and weaker Ukrainian state. Offense or Defense? (We must also wonder if they have the ability to do so....that is an open question.)

1.) Collaborators: The ranks of Ukraine are struggling with what appears to be Russian collaborators/spies. If true, that represents a risk for Ukrainians and their ability to outmaneuver and use stealth/incognito to surprise their enemies. The risks are many. If such collaborators are removed it could help limit Russian intelligence efforts and provide some insulation of Ukrainian activities. Ukraine Treason Concerns

 2.) Increased Russian Fighting: Russia is increasing and renewing its energy and fighting on all fronts in an ever to push the Ukrainian forces out of their target regions. Likely as an effort to win territory before new support arrives. Much of that will be to show Russia is increasing momentum and double down on a "power" strategy (Some of this is perceptual but it counts). They are also taking advantage of the chaos in Ukrainian leadership ranks. Stuff at the top impacts everything else (i.e. another reason why American politicians must stop arguing and start solving problems).  Russian Intensity Push.

3.) Russia Reinforces Defensive Positions: This is the moment where Ukrainians must be decisive in this war. Russia has found their Plan B line and now want to protect their territory as well as push for the last industrial region in their crosshairs. At this point without an immediate turning back of Russian forces Ukraine will be split. It will likely either be split for a long time or forever. That is the nature of having two different peoples with different loyalties. It may be the time Ukrainians either decide to give it absolutely everything (at the risk of the rest of the country) or decide to use their resources to build their side of the Iron Curtain.  Russian Create Defense Network

If the Ukrainians are going to try and take back their lands in one foul swoop they would need to hit nearly all of the Russian command centers and supply depots within a very short period to create as much miscommunication, supply chain issues, and command failures as possible. That would need to be matched with superior firepower/tactics/kill zones on key Russian locations that once they fall will cause the other locations to start falling like a domino effect. (Personally I think the Russians know that their troops are not highly trained and committing them to battle might be a mistake so much better using artillery. ) Let us wait and see what happens.....

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