Could Russia Use Nukes? A Possible Scenario

Strategy is one of those things and reach across the ocean and into the minds of adversaries and friends a like. Game Theory is one way in which researchers can understand the options and choices of multiple actors on the field. In this case we are talking about Russia and Ukraine but also includes the many other actors like the U.S.. Read the following frightful Nuke-Intelligence and the Game Theory article. 

1. Putin could use nuclear weapon if he felt war being lost – US intelligence chief

2. Game theory modeling for the Cold War on both sides of the Iron Curtain

I have a little experience modeling game theories for fun and have been sometimes successful at predicting (...not always but in the ball park. This is not a prediction just a discussion on different scenarios.) Level K is where I sort of do well. However, what I'm going to say here is that you get the grasp that there are two different models at play (There are mental trains of scientific thought that should be followed to see where the gaps in perspectives are. Those sometimes reveal opportunities to flip scripts.). Putin a Cold War Era baby so the people he most likely trusts are the ones that follow Soviet models (I don't think he likes the West. Feels capitalism and democracy are on the way out and wants to exploit his nestled position between China and U.S. Some of our radial politicians might also be inadvertently giving off those signals with their unwillingness for reasonableness and working within our current systems to resolve issues and find solutions. Our constant internal arguing is becoming a long term risk for us as well. Our institutions must be strong, independent and supported by the common will of the people. You can say it 100s of ways and yet they just think your not radical enough. Vote for problem solvers, critical thinkers, and centralists that are willing to work with others. I know...completely stupid idea! Its not an R or L issue...its both. ). 

Where I think we might conduct some further analysis is scenarios where he is loosing battles but must win them to move forward. Let us say for example, Ukrainians receive from another country better artillery that forces Russia to commit additional troops to the battlefield in a way that furthers losses (An embarrassing situation with strategic results.). He may consider the use of limited tactical nukes to not only strike fear but also to remove the major obstacles to troop movement. (Kind of like what the article says. These would likely be small at first as a sign/signal for others to stay clear and as a method of taking out Ukrainian military positions). 

There are of course other scenarios such as loss to his own power, escalated involvement by international forces, risk to his life, etc... For Putin this is a one time opportunity to redevelop the glory of the Soviet Empire. He sees himself as a type of Russian savior of values and strength (A kind of last hope for his people.). Power over is the way he was born, bred, and trained. Thus being prepared for dangerous contingencies like this is important. Having the protective gear in stock and ready just in case they are needed can be helpful for last minute changes in scenario (Chemical weapons might be another pre nuke escalation scenario.). We aren't there yet, and hopefully never will be, but it could be helpful just in case things go sour (Just as mental play I wonder if its possible to hack these systems and send them back to their launch site and/or other location? or perhaps impulse out all the chips. Maybe some nerds would know. 🤓 ). 

It should be noted that using the Nukes might put Putin at serious risk from his own Generals and Oligarchs (inner circle) who begin to view him as loosing his rationality and being an existential danger to his own people (i.e. long term health of Russia.). As the situation escalates and tensions rise there is the internal risks to his power that also rise. That will mean doubling down on control and that may not sit with everyone inside Russia who have become familiar with western ideals (Why supporting our own American culture and universal values is important for our own future in international influence. Let us not let far right and left politics destroy our long term legacies.)  Complex theoretical games like this require lots of data, information, and analysis....but also some gut instinct on human behavior. 

Do you have an opinion? (I'm not sure it is an opinion I have here more than it is an understanding of possibilities. Hopefully I'm 100% wrong. I want to be in this case. Even a small possibility is worth discussing. ).