Thursday, April 7, 2022

Russian Battered Economy and Troops Indicate Future Shifts in Policy

 Russia is at a point where it has lost a lot of power and position over the past 40 years and will have to decide to engage the rest of the world or isolate. Its military is bad shape and its economy is limping along. There is nothing wrong with a stable Russian economy as long as they act within acceptable international behavioral standards. Ukraine was a fight that looks like it has the potential to put the last nails in the Soviet coffin and could mark a change for the nations direction as well (Coming to grips with the change will be the hardest part for them. Unless something out of normal expectations happens it looks like there will be greater awareness among the population the difficult internal situation Russia was in prior, during and after the Ukraine conflict. Ukraine might be seen as a desperate attempt to revive a dying bear. We may find that Russia was already limping along the lines of more serious problems not known by the general public.). The nation and its leaders (Putin, Oligarchs, bureaucrats, influencers, etc.) will need to decide to fully embrace pro-West conceptions or push for internal isolation of people and institutions. We will likely know in the next week or so a better picture of the success/failure of Russia's invasion in Ukraine, Russian economic strategies, and where some of the weaknesses and cracks are appearing.  See Kremlin spokesman admits ‘we have significant losses of troops,’ calls it ‘a huge tragedy. 

It appears that the shift in troops is a possible exit strategy (Plan B). What they push for will be interesting. They may want the Eastern/Russian half of Ukraine but are likely be using it as a political win that their troops were overall effective in achieving their goals. They didn't really because of the loss of international prestige (...for those who fear such power.) that they are a strong nation. They may be strong but not on the level they were seen as prior to this invasion. 

Russia to be suspended from UN for human rights violations. 

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