Deutsche Bank Predicts 2023 Recession-Maybe but Not so Sure 🤔

There is a prediction by Deutsche Bank that in 2023 the Fed will cause a mild recession. According to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon things could get worse if environmental factors get worse. There is potential for soft recession or deeper recession. There are also possibilities other interesting things can happen. (It should be noted that when we are talking about probabilities and possibilities each outcome is dependent on other factors.) So there is no crystal ball when it comes to predicting the future but one can project the future based on past performances (i.e. the same thing Fed Chair Jerome Powell is saying when he talks of soft landings. He is looking at past incidents to predict economic behaviors based on similar circumstance. There is a whole complex science to it. I failed my Harvard extension economics class...so you know. 🤷). We look at past history to sort of understand what might happen in current situations. 

It should be noted that we are moving through a transformational shift where the very market fundamentals we experiences in a physical world system is changing so the calculations are likely need to change as well to make more accurate predictions. We don't have a full grasp of how much of the economy is online and how a changing distribution and payment system is going to change the fundamentals of commerce. Many things will still stay the same but predictions on older metrics are likely to be increasingly inaccurate leaving wider variability in outcomes (I looked around a little on growth in Digital GDP but didn't find what I was looking for. However, I suspected a while ago the trend line was going to shoot upwards with COVID and I think that is correct. 2023/24 might be pivotal year when short term adaptation strategies are refined and implemented in new long term approaches. Blah Blah Blah!)

Anyway....you will want to read Deutsche Bank is the first big bank to forecast a US recession.🤔