Thursday, September 17, 2020

President Trump Signs Second Peace Deal-Peace is a Process!

President trump signed the second peace deal in an effort to reduce conflict and improve trade. I'm reading the Peace to Prosperity and trying to digest the specifics of the plan and its long-term feasibility. There appears to be a political and economic components to the approach that seeks to create improved normalization of relationships through regional engagement and local development. I wanted to better understand the plan and its ramifications on economic and geopolitical concerns so here is what I found....

On the economic side the plan seeks to open "...the West Bank and Gaza to regional and global markets." The overall strategy appears to be that if we improve the economic market of the Palestinians we can create a more viable state with positive economic engagement. As a process it will require some basic level of agreement and then both sides moving toward market reforms that impact Gaza's capacity provide for its people. 

I can say that one of the things the Palestinians suffer from is poverty. Any time we can raise people from poverty into full economic engagement we will also encourage more pro-business and pro-social viewpoints. Discrimination is reduced where opportunities are increased. If Palestinians are able to raise the fundamentals of their economic system and their educational outputs they may find their environment shift positively as new elemental foundations adjust. 

The report goes on to say...."This part of the plan will create a business environment that provides investors with confidence that their assets will be secure by improving property rights, the rule of law, fiscal sustainability, capital markets, and anti-corruption policies."

In order to have a viable economy there will need to be some things that ensure there is basic trust in the economy and the governance of it. It is important to remember that investors want guarantees that they are not going to lose their money if political winds change and in turn writing such issues into the treaties helps to better create an investment climate. Without a strong investment environment you won't have investments and you won't have economic growth and that will likely stump the viability of Palestinian hopes. 

There are other parts of the plan that have benefits as well such as infrastructure improvements, private sector growth, and improve regional economic cooperation. Fundamentally I couldn't disagree with the basics of what they are trying to propose. Since the specifics are highly dependent on the knowledge and awareness of specific application I will leave my opinions of the details alone not something I want to put my fingers in as it will be moving water until implementation.

There is also the social side in the sense that there is some help for job employment and quality of life improvements. Jobs are essential to any global economic engagement and quality of life helps to alleviate poverty. People in that community suffered for a long time and while there is likely to be no perfect solution this is one peace deal they should seriously consider. 

 What we also find is that governance needs additional strengthening if it is going to be able to function within a global economy with larger businesses. It also must be responsive to its citizens needs as much as possible if people are going to feel as though they are part of the system and have a stake in it. It was my understanding that the government was relatively weak and that may be one of the contributing factors in slower development. 

I understand that there will be people who really disagree with the Peace Deal and are likely to be upset about it but I'm not sure there is at this moment in history a better option. There is a need to develop a strong independent state that has the capacity to encourage growth and development. Changing the environment, updating skills, encouraging investment, and engaging with the international community are essential. I can't say what will happen now but I suspect that a number of countries will continue to seek normalization for a long stemming conflict. Solving this problem in a way that is at least satisfactorily to most of the members means that we will reduce Middle East tensions by a great deal as this is one of the essential problems often cited in the discussion of cultural/religious differences.

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