The blog discusses current affairs and development of national economic and social health through unique idea generation. Consider the blog a type of thought experiment where ideas are generated to be pondered but should never be considered definitive as a final conclusion. It is just a pathway to understanding and one may equally reject as accept ideas as theoretical dribble. New perspectives, new opportunities, for a new generation. “The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.”—Thomas Jefferson
Arrogance in investing can be costly! When it comes to investing and making business decisions it is important to not make isolated choices without considering what others might think about the options. Sometimes as we move up the ranks in society we fall victim to the delusion that we are more aware and more knowledgeable than others around us.
For investors, CEOs, and executives that can be costly! Especially costly if you are dealing with others' money and a lot of people rely on those resources to make their mortgage payments and put food on their table. Executives have responsibilities to society beyond themselves and should think about where and how they invest resources (Less of an argument if you are investing for yourself and more of an argument if you are investing government or corporate resources to create net positives for society.).
Over the years I have learned that important decisions should not be made in a vacuum without considering the various other perspectives that can create a 360 degree view of an issue and its solutions. While that applies to many different facets of life, it does seem to resonate with important institutional decisions. Choices should be well thought out and they should consider some of the big contingencies.
Let me put a disclaimer, I'm a kind of student of the business world (You never stop learning!), have some business-owning experience, and do dabble in investments from time to time. Personal maybe philanthropic interests have brought me back into the markets again (Yes I'm getting old and thinking about the next generation) I will again write about investing in general (Basically, talk to your investor and don't listen to me unless I make sense! Your choices are your choices and I have nothing to do with. Invest in organic horse manure, I don't care!).
Trust me that falling stocks suck! I once put some money into a stock and it went to almost zero a few months after. Obviously I got something wrong. 🤷 This research says that one of the reasons why I did this was that I was overconfident and new to investing. Personally, I think it is because I didn't go read enough and listen to seasoned people. Again, it wasn't much money so I just shrugged it off, however I have learned over the years the importance of doing your homework. Keep your nose in the books!
(Also, I'm thinking through a process to help best select stocks with the greatest potential values that are in alignment with emerging trends. Its not as easy as you think but I have a few ideas bubbling.)
Dominik M Piehlmaier et al, The One-Man Show: The Effect of Joint Decision-Making on Investor Overconfidence, Journal of Consumer Research (2022). DOI: 10.1093/jcr/ucac054
An interesting meeting that teases the tantalizing mind and tickles the tongues of democracy. This is how things work on a local level in which we all relate to each other in many cases daily. If you notice there are discussions and there are votes. The vast majority of things are moving in the right direction. There are a few questions and concerns that have come up and its important to sort of ponder that for a minute.
(Hold judgement and just reflect. One you thought about issues critically then make a judgement. Be open to changing that judgement when new information emerges. Its a tough skill to master and it often takes half a lifetime to sort of figure out the basics.).
County government is important because this is where people have influence and where they are most impacted. They know each other on a personal level and most everyone has concerns over the community and its long term health. When I look at governance I think of a few things in my lens as I weigh and judge the possibilities, detractors and opportunities.
(That is not a judgement on anything or anyone...but only a judgement on governance itself.)
-What is the mid, short, and long term impact of choices? Thinking about each choice as important to achieve predefined goals. Typically I think in terms of maximizing strategy. If you don't have goals you don't have a navigation point nor does your ship have a rudder. Most managers anywhere and in any organization move over wave after wave but don't always have a sense of direction so not much gets accomplished (General concept).
-How do I build connections and agreement around a shared vision? Once a vision is formulated (i.e. Delta County as one of the best places to live and invest around its geographic, community and human capital assets; or something like that as a quick thought.) then it becomes easier to sell people around that vision. It allows interested parties to see how certain actions lead to many choices and a larger outcomes. Further, would be investors can see that vision and decide to invest in the community.
-What are the best ways to create greater engagement, trust, and participation by the community so their voice is heard and governances is reflective of the whole community? Increasing transparency, actively reaching out to different community members, soliciting ideas via email/website, etc....While there may be groups one must have a globalizing perspective to connect a big picture and then systems thinking to enact it in a way that benefits all the groups (...as many as possible. Were all in this ship together.).
-Where can I minimize the destructive impact of partisan politics and those who delve into such dark arts? Encouraging the community to manage for the whole entity and not allowing national or personal politics to distort the narrative around things that won't have a positive influence on local life. Remember that in politics, people and parties sometimes have all types of motives that may not be in the best of our communities. My suggestion is to think for yourself and not worry about the parties or their politics. Parties should align around your needs as a community and we should not align around theirs or the system gets a little warped (I get it...it will never happen!). Reflect and decide what you want on a personal level and then consider joining a party or not joining one (I'm starting to like independent third parties now just to improve thinking for both parties by reducing blind button pressing and improving diverse voting perspectives). The ultimate goal is the community and not the ideologies.
-How does one create net positives where investments and activities move beyond paying bills and into creating wealth and quality of life improvements for the community? Quality of life and improving opportunities through investment is vitally important for the long term success of any organization (govt. included). Draw in new business, find them a place, improve employment engagement, train people, clean parks, build bike paths, etc....
-Do you have any ideas of your own? In a free nation such as ours we encourage openness of conversation and openness of ears to encourage a positive dialogue. Those that don't are not really qualified to be in positions of authority because they can't compromise and that can create havoc on taking advantage of strategic opportunities. Do that long enough and the entire entity suffers.
We should also look at some resources to attract high growth industries (including entrepreneurs) as well as community improvement. I didn't look at them particularly that close but examples of how some things can be improved on a local level by funding future net positives to improve the wealth of the area for local residents. Feel free to read and discard...some might not be perfect but I'm more or less just bringing up the point where some focus could be placed to grow the area and the appeal of the area. If they are good look at them if they don't fit move on and find something else.
Were still a little wishy-washy on imports and exports. The trade deficit grew a little, exports rose 👍 and so did imports 😖. Over a year there was movement in the right direction that includes a 2.8% reduction in goods and services deficit. Exports moved up while imports moved up slower. It's not terrible news because there is some positive data mixed in from a trend perspective.
What we want to see is exports rise based on new infrastructure improvements that increase in the speed, quality, and value of such transactions. Infrastructure, the digital era, robotics, education, AI etc. contribute to investment profit potential and societal-economic growth when outputs are high and profits are reinvested back into the economy (perpetual sustainable development).
(Not so great if someone sells us out for a couple pennies on the share and moves operations overseas.)
If the highest value in the supply chain becomes the U.S. we will draw more resources (i.e. human capital, investment, innovation, etc.). If the trend of decreasing deficits and improving exports continues along with a digital platform change (some argue that so much stuff went online that we bumped up in our national economic platform) we may find more sustained and stable growth.
We still have issues with political uncertainty (decision-making and compromise around big national goals) as well as geopolitical issues that are part of the environment we live and work in. We also have countries seeking to reemerge so that the environment is in constant flux and should be seen as ever evolving. However, we certainly can work on our stuff to improve our national competitive position and that typically means a plan, focus just over the horizon, and a sustained commitment to national development.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $68.9 billion in February, up $1.3 billion from $67.6 billion in January, revised.
February exports were $263.0 billion, $5.8 billion more than January exports. February imports were $331.9 billion, $7.1 billion more than January imports.
The February increase in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $0.3 billion to $91.4 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $1.6 billion to $22.5 billion.
Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $3.9 billion, or 2.8 percent, from the same period in 2023. Exports increased $9.3 billion or 1.8 percent. Imports increased $5.4 billion or 0.8 percent.
Higher education is getting more expensive and the list of solutions getting shorter. It's not that we can't find solutions but it is that there is no compromising in the culture battles that rage in universities. Ground campuses are great and often provide an exceptional educational experience but also come with a higher price tag and are not necessarily the most diverse due to their restrictive selectivity. Many universities are experiencing a decline in enrollment with expenses rising. Some are closing.
It doesn't need to be that way...
Online education has risen to fill the gap for many Americans who do not come from wealthier families and cater to a more diverse population that is more reflective of a modern society. Some of these programs do great at measuring learning while some (ground and online) avoid metrics of learning but yet claim to be superior based on price. We should expect a Higher Ed. reckoning someday where the perception and reality of both come into line.
Much of it isn't about the modality but more about the politics of it all. To me, one can get their education by picking up a library card and sitting under a tree with skilled people. The professors of old were called philosophers. However, in today's world, we need more specialized advanced industry knowledge to ensure that we can put such skills learned in college (the tree) to good use in the market to help society.
There is no right or wrong other than cost, access, and quality. No one owns the quality debate unless they measure their learning in an objective way and then compare that to the price students pay, access, and availability of learned knowledge to ensure they are raising society's competitiveness. Human capital development requires diverse and easy access to update skills in a technologically advancing society where every 10 years the market is radically different. That is going to be hard if you have to go to campus.
Words in the wind blew away as quickly as uttered...
Beyond the lack of objective measurements on quality, rising cost, and lower enrollment one could make an argument on research. Research is an important part of encouraging higher innovation in the nation. However, this is not an online or offline argument. I have seen innovation come from industry, universities, and entrepreneurs. Newton just got hit in the head with an apple and he didn't have to pay $100K for a lump and a new idea.
The online world can take advantage of practitioner knowledge mixed with academic knowledge to create applied research. Not all ground universities are research schools and still some are really good at it. There is nothing that stops ground or online from conducting research and I encourage professors to start doing both when and where they can. Making an exception for the type of research.
I have found grants for one of the local fire departments and have conducted research, perhaps even groundbreaking in someways, (as well as on my own), and let me say its not the modality (except the physical sciences) that stops that from happening (My issue is time and resources). I have been browsing this database and others lately and am actively looking for grants not only for local first responders, and my community but also to advance higher education globally where it is struggling to adapt to new market realities (At least im thinking about it if necessary). Government Grants. (If you have a few good ones send them my way.)
To me, just like one can come up with a great idea under an apple tree there is no reason without some small changes on both sides of the argument for ground and online education to complement each other. Mater of fact, they can hedge each others weaknesses and enhance each other's strengths. Apple to mapple they both can be sweet or bitter.
We can rejuvenate our nation's higher education place in the world if we want...unless we don't want them too for cultural factors or ensuring someone doesn't move the cheese. Just saying it takes a little critical thinking to understand the benefits and detractors of both while recognizing their inherent value to students and society....assuming they are the ultimate stakeholders (Sometimes I wonder? 🤔).
People make judgements all the time about others with little to no knowledge and that can cause a lot of problems in society if it runs amuck. We have a whole new batch in society growing up and they come with more enlightened values. This generation is much more diverse and will bring with them new thoughts and ideas. Societal Value might be seen through a whole different kind of lens not based in superficial thinking.
During my time any difference in racial or religious beliefs often came with a level of disdain and in many cases mistreatment. Not by all of course, but by segregationists with little or no respect for what makes us distinctly American. There were few backstops and in some circles wobbling loyalties to our Constitution.
The young generations won't see people through such distorted values. They will be more concerned about the essence of who a person is versus what their outside appearance might be, their form of worship, or their extra curriculum activities. A person will be seen more holistically because their brains have familiarity with diversity and can process it more accurately (This is why the old can not always understand the perspective of the young even though they were once young themselves.)
As a person open to different religious experiences (Catholic, Muslim, Jew with great respect for other religions like Hinduism and Buddhism) and mixed race children, I know all too well what hate can do to society and do to our lives on an actualized level. Some of us stood tall against it while others groveled at the feet ignorance and kissed the toes of prejudice.
It made no difference to these people my sacrifices to society nor my essence as a person. My achievements, successes and failures all swept into the same leaky basket and thrown overboard. While not perfect, I am a good person who has done a lot of good things for people and continues to do so based on hope that we will reorient our values to those things we profess (alignment between word and deed).
However, for some the superficial is more is more important than the deep. Ones politics is more important than their values, ones self-enrichment is more important than their loyalties, and most importantly ones social perception is more important than their soul (integrity and truth).
The new generation won't view people as having low or high societal value based on false anchors of race or religion. Because of that diversity they can only judge another man/women by their actions and not the judger's bias. Diversity is not a dirty word to be discarded but instead a natural part of their lives.
The young generation can teach the old about low and high societal value as well. Low being those who engage in partisan politics, hate, and corruption of position and high being those who stand fast to solving problems, tolerance, and standing by their oaths to make their nation stronger. When young have more knowledge then the old, we know we need to change. The question then becomes how?
Democracy allows each generation to peacefully create value and redefine decisions from generation to generation. Many other forms of government cannot say the same. As this new group comes to power, I suggest they learn from the past on what not to do and what can be done. They can then vote for what they want versus accepting the dictation of those who rarely pick up a history book or scribble with a pen.
Learn from those who were the trailblazers for a higher level of universal democracy where we are valued by who we are and not by what others perceive us to be. The young have better vision than the old as well. A few have better than far sighted 20/20 vision. It is the old's responsibility to prepare them. Reconnecting Democracy for the Next Generation
We may consider each generation as a separate nation, with a right, by the will of the majority, to bind themselves, but none to bind the succeeding generation, more than the inhabitants of another country. -Thomas Jefferson
The National Institute of Justice Indicates that Federal systems capture 1 in 31 hate crimes and hate crimes are seriously under reported. Using Research to Improve Hate Crime Reporting and Identification. The problem has become so pervasive that one must wonder if there is a real commitment to tackle these issues and protect the integrity of some of our local institutions. The good news is that eventually things will be corrected because others in society have experienced similar things and that is going to lead to major cultural changes we now find when we poll those under the age of 30.
Let me give you a hypothetical example for illustrative purposes. Local Muslim family (switch with any race or religion in a highly diverse society.) are targeted for hate because people want to violently and socially push them out of their ancestral land. More than 100+ are aware of the hate crimes that include multiple incidents of intended, widely spread hate narratives, and implied and attempted violence. Such behaviors included screaming out names to one of the parents in front of kids, staring children down in public, spreading rumors, targeting for intimidation, rejection of jobs, stalking, online hate behaviors, human rights violations, and even actualized attempts at violence. Nearly all of the incidents were documented and witnessed but quickly discarded and protected by corrupted hate group supporters.
Once the incidents were reported the victims were again targeted for additional violent hate and human rights violations. The goal is to protect corruption and the inner Good Old Boy network (i.e. Ethnic Clan). Others came forward and complained about corruption and human/civil rights violations and they were directly retaliated against as well. Their complaints were public and recorded but that made little difference in the decision-making of those who were supposed to be protecting the ultimate stakeholders of society. i.e. the public. In some ways the crimes are ongoing due to lack of account and corruption of misbehaviors....
One would say for sure that in a modern nation and society, we would hold the perpetrators to account and we would correct such situations. However, that isn't always the case. The bias is so deeply embedded that there is a general refusal to protect targeted populations (switch with any race or religion in a highly diverse society). One would say that the rights of such individuals do not exist and are discounted to encourage the political, racial, and religious preferences of the perpetrators and supporters. The dangers to the integrity of one's oaths and social contracts are becoming increasingly worthy of question.
(There is a point where protecting our essential freedoms will be more important than protecting violent hate. When we make that switch, we know that we are restoring justice to the area and integrity to the system in a way in which it will encourage economic and social thriving. Those corrupted souls that protect such hate without putting in place new protections or holding the initiators accountable have low moral conscious and little respect for our long earned freedoms or the community they pretend to serve.)
While this is a hypothetical example we do know that such behaviors do sometimes happen and when corruption is mixed with such crimes the laws are sort of thrown out the window. Perpetrators can in the future target and misuse authority simply because backstops and intentional underreporting are culturally encourage to protect some at the expense of others. As we move forward in our national development we will have to come to grips with the risks of such extreme bias and its institutional and human capital implications. This is why I always advocated for tolerance, living by one's oath, protecting human/civil rights, creating strong supported systems and ensuring that we stand by our Constitution (the things we all agree on).
Many people are doing the right thing but some are doing the wrong thing and protecting those wrong things no matter what the long-term implications of doing so are for the nation and society (Notice how they sold out their nation and people by not living by these shared contracts and values until it was in their own self interest to do so.) Those who protect those behaviors are not qualified to be in positions of authority and it is up to the youth (and others) to vote them out and change the cultural trajectory of unAmerican values in our society. We owe it to our children, grandchildren, and ourselves to at least attempt to protect their futures. Where one system fails a more organic system can correct through our shared commitment to societal health. The beauty of democracy is that they can do this through their vote.
*This hypothetical example is for illustrative purposes. The insight one might gain is the long-term risks of protecting violent hate and how that can impact institutional trust and human capital development. As you can tell I'm an advocate for the strongest most healthy nation we can create so our free and democratic principles continue to resonate with each generation and the world at large. Freedom of speech, religion or general safety should not be ignored. There is no political partisanship in that. The questions being what do you believe and who will you vote for or follow? This is your part of the conversation that defines you as an individual and our society in many ways.
I have used different religions and races to sort of highlight the issues universally to many different types of people. As I go forward with this discussion I will switch them up because in a highly diverse society like ours, we all have rights to worship, live, and be who we were meant to be no matter who agrees or disagrees. It is inherent in our doctrines and in human existence.
The labor market and related economic growth again surprised the vast majority of economists; save a few. Industry, construction, healthcare, government, and leisure & hospitality saw bigger growth trends. Wages went up 4.1% over a year and unemployment went down 3.8%. I wouldn't expect interest rate cuts anytime soon without a change in the market. It would be risky to artificially impact the economy without understanding some of the trending factors. Move too soon and you overheat and move too late and things stall out. The U.S. is making a comeback!
Lower unemployment is putting upward pressure on wages. What I would like to see is that people train on new skills and go to school to move up to higher value employment positions to increase their value in the global supply chain. We may also want to see AI and robotics improve manufacturing by tapping into new infrastructure in a way that enhances U.S. worker productivity (and global value). Likewise, small and medium businesses should be encouraged to create future innovation beyond 5 years.
(Time will tell.... I didn't go to an ivy league school and had to work and raise kids like the vast majority of blue collar and Middle Class Americans that didn't come with trust funds. I'm an advocate for easy access education to create equity, to develop the American worker and the economy. An educated, skilled and informed workforce is more important than retaining such benefits for a smaller and wealthier demographic. I'm working on a transactional cluster theory for rapid industy innovation. I have the main principles down but want to write it into a book shorter than the disjointed 300 pages+ I have now.🫤 )
"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 303,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and construction" (BEA, April 5th, 2024, para 1.).
You can see some of the demographic adjustments.
"Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Blacks (6.4 percent) increased in March, while the rates for Asians (2.5 percent) and Hispanics (4.5 percent) decreased. The jobless rates for adult men (3.3 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (12.6 percent), and Whites (3.4 percent) showed little or no change over the month" (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)" (BEA, April 5th, 2024, para 4).
