Escanaba Back in the Day-Delft Theater

 

Risk of Default Rises, Need for U.S. Balanced Budget, the Need for Shared Goals

Deposits are lower and there is some risk that there is a pressure on banks with higher interest rates causing some banking pressure. Thus, we might expect more consolidations, reduced bank stocks, and perhaps a few defaults.  There are also some concerns about how to balance the budge, commercial banking activities and the general need to work toward shared goals. You may find the video and information below as helpful. 

If we look at the FRED data on commercial bank deposits and revolving credit there is a little concern. However, when you go to the actual chart you can move to a 5 year view and you will see we are still up in deposits overall. The revolving credit might be an issue because if you have a US default you will likely find credit defaults which causes a chain reaction. How far, we don't actually know. I would be interested in seeing some projections. 

This is the danger of politics. We know we have a debt/spending problem, we know we must compete internationally, so its intuitive we need to restructure and change to put resources where its going to create net positives (That is not against all social programs which if they use the right metrics some are likely net positives.). It does mean going through our different initiatives and programs and ensure we are cutting waste and we are improving their effectiveness around 4-5 main goals for the country. 

My opinion is do as much as you can, extend 6 months (or some months) and work on adjusting our finances for national success. Start with what we know we need to keep and then putting together bipartisan teams to look at each major government expenditure. We encourage mature politicians that want to work these issues out to be collaborators with the party across the isle for mutual growth. No room for staunch ideologies. Everyone must work together. 

Description: Kate Kelly, New York Times reporter, Larry McDonald, The Bear Trap Report founder, and CNBC's Leslie Picker discuss the latest comments from Janet Yellen on the banking crisis, the ongoing debt ceiling debate, and more.

Dr. Janet Yellen discusses risks of breakdown Yellen warns against a US default

These Federal Reserve Commercial Bank Deposits and Revolving Credit. You can gain more from FRED Economic Data Deposits, All Commercial Bank

Commercial Bank Deposits

Commercial Bank Revolve Credit.

Police Reform is Neither All Good Or All Bad! How do you feel about what I'm saying?

The clan based justice system exists and where it resides the laws become increasingly subjective in their application. I'm like many other Republicans in that I do not support extremism but I do know some that do (It is not necessarily party specific as it's not central to either Democrat or Republican ideology. Its an add on.). I encourage systems that can be improved to move along that line of improvement. 

A problem arises when the clan based justice system supersedes our official laws and systems. No voting, no elections, no solutions or accountability. The essential danger of clan based systems is that extremism is more common in such groups and there are incentives to work outside the official law. When these are racially and religiously based perceptions it is in direct contrast to our national laws.

Even after the sacking of our capital we struggle with extremism. I don't believe it just disappeared magically, it just sort of went in the background again because of national level accountability. I know people who were inadvertent victims of a clan based system and I believe that obtaining justice for them is difficult if not impossible. There are direct and indirect victims to poor behavior. 

What allows these systems to exist? We are in a cultural transition in our country and politicians have politicized the police. To many, they are either all good or all bad. Police reform is also seen as either all good or all bad. While I might believe 80% are good and 20% have issues, likely the same for departments, this is seen a ludicrous conjecture in our current political discussion. This is where we know that politics doesn't always reflect actuality in life.

If I say many times our system functions well but sometimes it doesn't function well people sort of get confused. I might further add that there are many people who are complaining about injustices and concerned about the ethnic, racial, religious based crimes. We should consider their point of view when talking about ways to make policing and the justice system function at a higher level. I can also say there many great officers doing the right thing and they have empathy and positive interactions with different communities. 

(I'm not actually talking out of both sides of my mouth but talking about human nature. No one is all good or all bad. This is why I'm not necessarily looking to put people in jail. However, there were a few who caused the problem and few acted upon false information in a dangerous and illegal way so to me I believe that intentionally destructive, biased, and problematic behavior should not be encourage or given a free pass.)

What you will find is that reasonableness is often not part of the discussion. It doesn't hype people. Clan based justice systems can grow and challenge official systems when they lack accountability. We have seen this in other countries and places. We are not immune to that problem in the U.S.. To improve we will need to recognize the problem, care about our oaths and citizens, and then act on that in a way that solves and rectifies the problem. That is what politics is for....its for solving problems....not hiding them.  

This is my perspective and it makes no difference how many times I'm followed or how many laws are broken in that mad rush to cleans ones community. I support our police more than many of our politicians may understand or know. More than some of our local police know. In my life I have helped police at various times; even at great personal risk. Likewise, I'm helping them now correct a deficiency where close association has come to make inappropriate behaviors acceptable. This is again at personal risk that corruption will succeed.

However, when officers go rogue and act on what appears to be bigoted assumptions and clan affiliation, I believe very much they need some level of behavior modification. Supporting police is about making the best, strongest, fairest system we can in order to have justice- its purpose! It isn't about circumventing justice or providing free passes for intentionally damaging behavior of close associates and friends. It isn't about saying things to get votes or hype people up into different camps even when we are all in the same campground.

I don't know what your beliefs are but I got the impression that certain people can't talk freely without becoming targets in some areas. A type of stifling of intellectuals and legitimate suggestions for improvement.

Freedom of Religion and Freedom of Speech is America. Its our Constitution and the only one in which almost all of us agree upon. Without that, we have little to nothing that holds us together. Let us not play games with that which binds us into a single identity. Both sides should respect our long term national needs. I don't see myself stopping in my effort to encourage accountability and I don't see them stopping targeting to stifle common sense/reasonable changes. What becomes of it all is proof in the pudding. 

While I might say police, and likely departments, are mostly good but have some issues I'm not being silly, immature, or anti-police. I'm pro-police, pro civil rights and pro institution adaptation to make it better and ensure they are serving their mission and protecting the public. To assume it doesn't need to change as in "all perfect" perception or to assume all officers are bigots "all bad" is not the right way to think about the issue and its inherently manipulative in its proposition. It does get votes! 

(Some emotional charging is beneficial for getting the message to sink in. Not everything I write is useless or not thought out. Its an encoding system we use in our brain so it help package information. Except when its an excuse to target, that is more dangerous and shows subconscious bias. More dangerous if there may be some levels of corruption involved. You acted on your bias, you own it! Ask yourself how angry or happy you are that I'm saying what I'm saying? Emotional priming depends on the degree of conscious experience)

Consider....

15 Black And White Thinking Examples

Convergent vs. divergent thinking: Finding the right balance for creative problem solving

Jerome Powell: Labor market slack and unemployment

Federal Chair Powell talks about inflation and the labor market. Labor market slack will be more important in the near future. The Fed is looking at alternative measures because we have mixed predictors in today's market. If we have a platform shift we are going to have new economic assumptions. I agree that sometimes you can come to understand problems not by relying on traditional metrics alone, but sometimes through multiple secondary metrics few people thought about. 

A Word of Caution and Hope for Those Who Stand Up Against Hate and Corruption

A few ideas on my appreciation for those who know that we are and will in word and deed encourage the perception of a single indivisible people who seek liberty and justice for all.  Not everyone is on the same level as that and some are giving lip service to those values for personal gain. However, it is we the average American that continue to push our nation and its people to build/re-build our international standing/branding as a free and universal democratic society.

-Doing the right thing doesn't mean you will get anyone to believe in it. We have a problem because people have become complacent in their American values and in many ways confused by what these values mean (Yes I understand people get really angry about their beliefs but I'm looking at it as an alignment between word and behavior.). That is the danger of hyper politics and political manipulation because it encourage division to discourage pro-social single American conception. 

-While certain values are beneficial for our town and our country we don't always "walk the talk". Most people stand for the oaths and some people believe in those oaths but struggle with the deeper meaning behind the words. There are many who have no real understanding of the underlining meanings and the sacrifices contained within. There is social pressure to stand but I'm not sure everyone understands what they are pledging.

-Enforcement systems are self-contained with few to little ways to provide accurate feedback or accountability. This could be a reason why some have engaged in rogue behaviors. If you analyze the flow of information, how complaints are handled, and the low level of judicial intervention to force reform, we will come to an understanding of the nature of some of these problems from a closed system. Closed systems in history have been known to cause a lot of problems as they derail to their own set of codes that may not be in alignment with society.

-While you may be doing the right thing and standing up for the majority of society and Constitution, that doesn't mean people will stop rolling their eyes when crimes happen with their knowledge and with their awareness. There will be some who believe and act and many who say they believe, but don't act, and don't really care until it impacts them. It is a self interested decision making tree with its own rules of self oriented logic. It almost always ends in a negative spot.

-The federal system seems to be trying to do the right thing when compared to some of our local systems (I think most local systems to fine but sometimes they get confused and when they do, its an issue). That doesn't make them perfect but their perspective is more oriented toward a method that keeps society's divers stakeholders focused on a shared goals.  Up until Capital Riots domestic extremism was seen as not something on the priority list because it didn't pose an immediate threat (i.e. not seeing the threat. It happens, no system is perfect or can see everything.). I have seen this extremism unfold based on the words of clan leadership.

-The political structure and elites in society haven't yet decided that all Americans have value so until they conclusively come down on the side of the moral conscious and enforcing our implied contracts tens of millions of Americans may risk unfair treatment while they debate. So I encourage our judicial system to think about fairness, honestly and prosocial values. There are changes that lead to greater transparency and higher levels of effective policing. The goal is effective policing that functions at its highest state and in alignment with society's values.

-Standing up against hate and corruption is absolutely necessary to make our nation more competitive, to ensure our social contracts are maintained, and restore/improve trust in our systems (I know its difficult to sell that we as leaders have responsibilities.). If your standing for our shared values, then you are doing the right thing.  If your stand for truth, whether pro police or other, then you have an important message we need to hear. Those who stand for our values may not always be appreciated, but I believe in history, when we are removed from situations, we often find that those who challenged cared enough to believe in their society and the steps that help us become a leading people. It isn't the "status quo" that makes us a beacon, its the possibilities of the future and the hope it contains that makes us the shinning light. Its not a sound byte that can be sold for blind votes, but it is an essential truth of how society functions. 

Retail Sales Up in April: Why Consumer Spending and Economic Health Are Associated?

Retail sales increased .4% in April hinting at a possible strong economy. Its a little like looking out the window and seeing semi sunny skies. Not sure if I should bring or leave my rain jacket. The rise in consumer sales is used by some economists as a method of gauging general economic health. It just isn't a perfect measurement and should be paired with other economic indicators to foreshadow the economic story (Remember that all economics is just human behavior in quantitative form).

The article Retail sales rebound in April, pointing to steady economy provides a level of analysis of consumer spending. Home do-it-yourself retail is up and restaurants are up. People must be eating after working on their houses. To busy to cook. 🤷 There hasn't been a major retraction in the consumer market even though the cost of using credit cards and such financing is high. (You can always follow the 'Don't Buy Stuff Plan')

Thinking about retail spending and its impact on the economy one could come to a question, "How does consumer spending help predict the economy?"

BLS has some categories they use to explain predictability in Beyond the Numbers. I also came across something by the White House on how economists determine a recession I thought was slightly off topic but very interesting. How Do Economists Determine Whether the Economy Is in a Recession? The Federation of American Scientists also put together one of the better explanations in Consumer Spending.

Basically, as consumer spending rises it is related to general economic health. People spend because they feel optimistic and because they have extra cash to burn. Consumer spending and economic health is not a 1-to-1 ratio. It sort of hints at something without a commitment. To make a more thorough analysis we would need additional measurements to increase the likelihood of being accurate. It doesn't mean its not an indicator, but that its not as useful unless other positive data come out to support a trend line.

Economic forecasting reminds me of fortune telling but lots and lots of numbers. One should wonder how big data is going to change those numbers and many of the economic assumptions will go with that change. For example, if you have significantly more information on economic activities, then the way we think about those activities is going to change, theories will adjust, so on and so forth. If its a Digital Age platform shift with deep economic implications then I suspect new theories would come out (I'm sort of working on one but I'm not sure if its 100% a new theory or just borrowing from other theories. It seems fairly accurate so far. 🤔) 

After the Clan Chaos: The Dangers of the Free Pass System

Justice for All

Its rare but there are a few people who have been through situations that when its all over and completed you scratch your head as to the bizarreness of it all. One may then wonder how such a seemingly beautiful people become coconspirators in potential hate based crimes. You might also ponder the future risks of a free pass clan based system if left intact and without appropriate checks and balances. When these things happen it is helpful to sort of put them in perspective so we can work on solving the problem. A discussion on the possibilities helps us think about where accountability should lay

Context

Imagine that this was not a normal situation, instead one in which a large group of clan based friends, police officers, and perhaps a few public officials were involved in one form or another (Not all necessarily bad or good.). Likewise, there a number of victims of various harm levels that range from the sick and dying all the way over to children (Each at different levels and to different degrees). I guess if you widened the perspective you might even include the community itself as one of the victims who would enjoy not having schisms in their social networks.

The catalysts are many but essentially it appears a desire to self enrich, bigotries, clan connections, and lack of Constitutional protections (speech and religion) seem to have been contributing factors to this situation. Those that started this did so because I believe they were attempting to hide current and past criminal behaviors through using projected hate as a tool (I know its impossible! Lets go with it for a moment as a thought experiment. One would need to investigate to be sure. i.e. questions like were monies taken from the vulnerable, was hate speech used to deflect and protect the discovery of alleged crimes, and how other goal directed behaviors occur?)

Mental Health

It also ties to mental health which is something that governments are struggling with finding the balance. We do have toxic self-interested people in the world and sometimes those unaddressed issues create real harm. You can't say whatever you want and sic launch half witted followers on minorities (or anyone) simply because one doesn't know how to deal with uncomfortable feelings (Ok theoretically you can't but in practicality there are cases where this occurs I'm sure.). If our system was run by bullies, bigots and bad people we have a system that will spread toxicity in a dangerous way infecting the official system to socialize to lower order values like those learned in tight knit social group (I guess it is the same for extremism, and other isms).

Looking Back

Looking back over the field of desperation and civic derailment I realize that each person played a role in some ways. Drawn to act against our American values because they had an issue they needed to deal with in an environment that had two different legal structures (the official and the clan/shadow) where services are rendered with different customers in mind. Those that don't fit well into the clan ranging from racism/bigotry to character (It might actually be a good reason and more healthy adaptive reason) are met with official/unofficial wave upon wave of dangerous and coordinated hate based behaviors (No one should know those tactics meaning it was already there as part of learned prior behaviors. The difference is an "out-group" target lowered their inhibitions quickly. I guess this group would adapt but if they are not on the receiving end of environmental stress then they would have had no reason to adapt. That is why it is sometimes necessarily or outside agencies to come in and correct when a system becomes maladaptive. Pressure helps them readapt.) 

Responsibility and Accountability

Who should own the responsibility for such behaviors and outcomes? Perhaps it is the victims who should not have dared to challenge the status quo, protect their family, or stung the distortion of an easily manipulated mob. Maybe its the officers who were all to willing to act on improper information, intentionally connecting loosely associated information, spread that misinformation like we have seen in other dehumanizing justifications, and commit potential crimes based on that information without ever checking their biased assumptions. I suspect one could hold the people who caused such behaviors to account but that would only be a moral sentiment as the laws are not designed well to see hate inspired swarming or the underpinnings of extremism that makes that possible.

A Few Thoughts

We are just not there yet as a people and we hold all types of assumptions that truly limit our potential as a nation of diverse people. A nation that must now compete and seems to be thinking about multiple paths. I believe that we could do a much better job at aligning our internal environment to the needs of the emerging digital era and all of the human capital factors gained from such alignment. We must treat people fairly across society in an enlightened way in order to draw the best out of them. Thoughtful laws for thoughtful outcomes.  We have a responsibility to create a level playing field and ensure that our laws are being applied universally and fairly in ways that are the most helpful and maintain the integrity of our institutions. I encourage stronger hate based laws and additional public safeguards against misuse of official position for nefarious purposes.