Jerome Powell: Labor market slack and unemployment

Federal Chair Powell talks about inflation and the labor market. Labor market slack will be more important in the near future. The Fed is looking at alternative measures because we have mixed predictors in today's market. If we have a platform shift we are going to have new economic assumptions. I agree that sometimes you can come to understand problems not by relying on traditional metrics alone, but sometimes through multiple secondary metrics few people thought about. 

A Word of Caution and Hope for Those Who Stand Up Against Hate and Corruption

A few ideas on my appreciation for those who know that we are and will in word and deed encourage the perception of a single indivisible people who seek liberty and justice for all.  Not everyone is on the same level as that and some are giving lip service to those values for personal gain. However, it is we the average American that continue to push our nation and its people to build/re-build our international standing/branding as a free and universal democratic society.

-Doing the right thing doesn't mean you will get anyone to believe in it. We have a problem because people have become complacent in their American values and in many ways confused by what these values mean (Yes I understand people get really angry about their beliefs but I'm looking at it as an alignment between word and behavior.). That is the danger of hyper politics and political manipulation because it encourage division to discourage pro-social single American conception. 

-While certain values are beneficial for our town and our country we don't always "walk the talk". Most people stand for the oaths and some people believe in those oaths but struggle with the deeper meaning behind the words. There are many who have no real understanding of the underlining meanings and the sacrifices contained within. There is social pressure to stand but I'm not sure everyone understands what they are pledging.

-Enforcement systems are self-contained with few to little ways to provide accurate feedback or accountability. This could be a reason why some have engaged in rogue behaviors. If you analyze the flow of information, how complaints are handled, and the low level of judicial intervention to force reform, we will come to an understanding of the nature of some of these problems from a closed system. Closed systems in history have been known to cause a lot of problems as they derail to their own set of codes that may not be in alignment with society.

-While you may be doing the right thing and standing up for the majority of society and Constitution, that doesn't mean people will stop rolling their eyes when crimes happen with their knowledge and with their awareness. There will be some who believe and act and many who say they believe, but don't act, and don't really care until it impacts them. It is a self interested decision making tree with its own rules of self oriented logic. It almost always ends in a negative spot.

-The federal system seems to be trying to do the right thing when compared to some of our local systems (I think most local systems to fine but sometimes they get confused and when they do, its an issue). That doesn't make them perfect but their perspective is more oriented toward a method that keeps society's divers stakeholders focused on a shared goals.  Up until Capital Riots domestic extremism was seen as not something on the priority list because it didn't pose an immediate threat (i.e. not seeing the threat. It happens, no system is perfect or can see everything.). I have seen this extremism unfold based on the words of clan leadership.

-The political structure and elites in society haven't yet decided that all Americans have value so until they conclusively come down on the side of the moral conscious and enforcing our implied contracts tens of millions of Americans may risk unfair treatment while they debate. So I encourage our judicial system to think about fairness, honestly and prosocial values. There are changes that lead to greater transparency and higher levels of effective policing. The goal is effective policing that functions at its highest state and in alignment with society's values.

-Standing up against hate and corruption is absolutely necessary to make our nation more competitive, to ensure our social contracts are maintained, and restore/improve trust in our systems (I know its difficult to sell that we as leaders have responsibilities.). If your standing for our shared values, then you are doing the right thing.  If your stand for truth, whether pro police or other, then you have an important message we need to hear. Those who stand for our values may not always be appreciated, but I believe in history, when we are removed from situations, we often find that those who challenged cared enough to believe in their society and the steps that help us become a leading people. It isn't the "status quo" that makes us a beacon, its the possibilities of the future and the hope it contains that makes us the shinning light. Its not a sound byte that can be sold for blind votes, but it is an essential truth of how society functions. 

Retail Sales Up in April: Why Consumer Spending and Economic Health Are Associated?

Retail sales increased .4% in April hinting at a possible strong economy. Its a little like looking out the window and seeing semi sunny skies. Not sure if I should bring or leave my rain jacket. The rise in consumer sales is used by some economists as a method of gauging general economic health. It just isn't a perfect measurement and should be paired with other economic indicators to foreshadow the economic story (Remember that all economics is just human behavior in quantitative form).

The article Retail sales rebound in April, pointing to steady economy provides a level of analysis of consumer spending. Home do-it-yourself retail is up and restaurants are up. People must be eating after working on their houses. To busy to cook. 🤷 There hasn't been a major retraction in the consumer market even though the cost of using credit cards and such financing is high. (You can always follow the 'Don't Buy Stuff Plan')

Thinking about retail spending and its impact on the economy one could come to a question, "How does consumer spending help predict the economy?"

BLS has some categories they use to explain predictability in Beyond the Numbers. I also came across something by the White House on how economists determine a recession I thought was slightly off topic but very interesting. How Do Economists Determine Whether the Economy Is in a Recession? The Federation of American Scientists also put together one of the better explanations in Consumer Spending.

Basically, as consumer spending rises it is related to general economic health. People spend because they feel optimistic and because they have extra cash to burn. Consumer spending and economic health is not a 1-to-1 ratio. It sort of hints at something without a commitment. To make a more thorough analysis we would need additional measurements to increase the likelihood of being accurate. It doesn't mean its not an indicator, but that its not as useful unless other positive data come out to support a trend line.

Economic forecasting reminds me of fortune telling but lots and lots of numbers. One should wonder how big data is going to change those numbers and many of the economic assumptions will go with that change. For example, if you have significantly more information on economic activities, then the way we think about those activities is going to change, theories will adjust, so on and so forth. If its a Digital Age platform shift with deep economic implications then I suspect new theories would come out (I'm sort of working on one but I'm not sure if its 100% a new theory or just borrowing from other theories. It seems fairly accurate so far. 🤔) 

After the Clan Chaos: The Dangers of the Free Pass System

Justice for All

Its rare but there are a few people who have been through situations that when its all over and completed you scratch your head as to the bizarreness of it all. One may then wonder how such a seemingly beautiful people become coconspirators in potential hate based crimes. You might also ponder the future risks of a free pass clan based system if left intact and without appropriate checks and balances. When these things happen it is helpful to sort of put them in perspective so we can work on solving the problem. A discussion on the possibilities helps us think about where accountability should lay

Context

Imagine that this was not a normal situation, instead one in which a large group of clan based friends, police officers, and perhaps a few public officials were involved in one form or another (Not all necessarily bad or good.). Likewise, there a number of victims of various harm levels that range from the sick and dying all the way over to children (Each at different levels and to different degrees). I guess if you widened the perspective you might even include the community itself as one of the victims who would enjoy not having schisms in their social networks.

The catalysts are many but essentially it appears a desire to self enrich, bigotries, clan connections, and lack of Constitutional protections (speech and religion) seem to have been contributing factors to this situation. Those that started this did so because I believe they were attempting to hide current and past criminal behaviors through using projected hate as a tool (I know its impossible! Lets go with it for a moment as a thought experiment. One would need to investigate to be sure. i.e. questions like were monies taken from the vulnerable, was hate speech used to deflect and protect the discovery of alleged crimes, and how other goal directed behaviors occur?)

Mental Health

It also ties to mental health which is something that governments are struggling with finding the balance. We do have toxic self-interested people in the world and sometimes those unaddressed issues create real harm. You can't say whatever you want and sic launch half witted followers on minorities (or anyone) simply because one doesn't know how to deal with uncomfortable feelings (Ok theoretically you can't but in practicality there are cases where this occurs I'm sure.). If our system was run by bullies, bigots and bad people we have a system that will spread toxicity in a dangerous way infecting the official system to socialize to lower order values like those learned in tight knit social group (I guess it is the same for extremism, and other isms).

Looking Back

Looking back over the field of desperation and civic derailment I realize that each person played a role in some ways. Drawn to act against our American values because they had an issue they needed to deal with in an environment that had two different legal structures (the official and the clan/shadow) where services are rendered with different customers in mind. Those that don't fit well into the clan ranging from racism/bigotry to character (It might actually be a good reason and more healthy adaptive reason) are met with official/unofficial wave upon wave of dangerous and coordinated hate based behaviors (No one should know those tactics meaning it was already there as part of learned prior behaviors. The difference is an "out-group" target lowered their inhibitions quickly. I guess this group would adapt but if they are not on the receiving end of environmental stress then they would have had no reason to adapt. That is why it is sometimes necessarily or outside agencies to come in and correct when a system becomes maladaptive. Pressure helps them readapt.) 

Responsibility and Accountability

Who should own the responsibility for such behaviors and outcomes? Perhaps it is the victims who should not have dared to challenge the status quo, protect their family, or stung the distortion of an easily manipulated mob. Maybe its the officers who were all to willing to act on improper information, intentionally connecting loosely associated information, spread that misinformation like we have seen in other dehumanizing justifications, and commit potential crimes based on that information without ever checking their biased assumptions. I suspect one could hold the people who caused such behaviors to account but that would only be a moral sentiment as the laws are not designed well to see hate inspired swarming or the underpinnings of extremism that makes that possible.

A Few Thoughts

We are just not there yet as a people and we hold all types of assumptions that truly limit our potential as a nation of diverse people. A nation that must now compete and seems to be thinking about multiple paths. I believe that we could do a much better job at aligning our internal environment to the needs of the emerging digital era and all of the human capital factors gained from such alignment. We must treat people fairly across society in an enlightened way in order to draw the best out of them. Thoughtful laws for thoughtful outcomes.  We have a responsibility to create a level playing field and ensure that our laws are being applied universally and fairly in ways that are the most helpful and maintain the integrity of our institutions. I encourage stronger hate based laws and additional public safeguards against misuse of official position for nefarious purposes.

Delta County Board of Commissioners Special Meeting (5/9/2023): Comments, Corruption, Candidates, and Administrator Hired!

There are a lot of things going on within this meeting as it relates to an open full time county administrator position. The situation has been a little controversial because of a firing of one and the hiring of another. It is through this discussion and comparison of candidates that led to a vote based on fairly consistent voting lines of 2-3. What makes this meeting more interesting is that the words corruption were used and there has been significant community blowback on some issues. 

Business continues forward and moves on despite disagreements. Through the hustle of conversation a new administrator was hired and I would agree with most of the other commissioners with the sentiment that everyone wants the new administrator to do well no matter who is in the position. I'm getting this post out there because today's meeting I heard was interesting and I have been busy on other stuff.

Notes: I try and be accurate. Watch the video if I'm incorrect on something I can easily adjust. 

-Upset with the process but also feels there is corruption. Stated it as a power grab. An issue of a vote change and switching the candidate ranking in qualifications. Local expert opinion stated that the current interim isn't qualified but has potential. Another stated people support the current interim and her qualifications. 

-There was some discussion on each of the candidates. Candidates are generally chosen for strategic purposes based on where the county would like to go in the next 5 to 10 years. For example, if the area wants to grow economically then they need someone with economic knowledge and finance so as to create the investment mechanisms. However, we should not ignore other factors of leadership that has nothing to do with any specific industry background. 

-Significant discussion around each of the candidates and what each one likes and each one doesn't like. Each of the commissioners picked their favorites. 

-The idea of succession planning and junior study was brought up. Its not a bad idea to have people able to step in temporary to maintain core functions of different roles. Often that leads to greater systems knowledge of how the different roles coordinate to fulfill an organizational mission.

-Each candidates was brought up for a vote. There is a reason why I think that happened. 

-Somewhere around 1.38 there is a discussion on corruption and an argument between two commissioners. Corruption was initially defined as things behind the back and then it moved to illegal. Asking if one will resign if something happened that was corrupt. (Remember that those are the opinions of the sayers alone and I have my own unique opinions. I found a video on corruption, investment and other potential issues. Since we are discussing the terminology its beneficial to look at some resources. Kind of interesting by Investors Trading Academy 'What is corruption'.)

Haddock Fish Supply Declining so Quota Cut 80%: Keeping the Ocean Fish Stocks Healthy

East coast fishing have cut catch Haddock quotas by more than 80% to prevent the fish’s population from collapse. Fish is in demand across the globe and countries are in tons of commercial fishing battles. The U.S. has within its territorial waters and the Great Lakes the capacity to build their fish populations to a rich industry. Of course one might need to rethink on how to fund rebuilding through commercial fishing to ensure the population grows. 

I wonder in some ways if the tax, license fees, etc. were reworked and then streamlined we could save some resources. Furthermore, when we build sustainable systems we have to ensure the resources taken out are put back in to keep the whole system growing. If we are not doing that, then we are likely mismanaging the resources in an unsustainable way.

One way to think about such revenue is commercial fishing investing directly back into fishing growth, fisheries, etc. The other stuff beyond administrating that system are bonus returns to government and can be used for other sources. However, the majority of the revenue should be spent on growing fishing and on the administration of that industry to keep it functioning well. If you take, then it should go back there first.

You can read some stuff on the UN Food and Agriculture Organization on Sustainable Fisheries

Fishing and commercial fishing is one of the things that keep me interested.  A sort of fantasy of building a part-time commercial hobby operation and spend more time out on the lake (Just sort of for fun and not anything serious). Anyway....

I keep thinking about how that might help manage fishing supplies, keep the protein supply growing, and allow for year to year better management. For example, having a strong central commercial fishing industry of different size operations helps maintain the industry if it is a size less then the regeneration rate. 

Using seasonal/yearly hobby fishing part-time commercial fishing license from year to year can create a cushion for the commercial industry because they are small vessels and are not guaranteed to be renewed. Of course that might also mean that the core commercial size would need to be of a size that it can be profitable and ensure the fishing supplies are growing in a clean and sustainable way. 

Haddock, popular Atlantic fish, overfished into population decline

How the Hate Narrative Works: Research Studies Help Show

All behavior is goal directed in one form or another. That is true whether or not behavior is rational or is not rational. The spreading of rumors to create the hate narrative has a goal even though we might not see that initially or see it hidden in the interwoven narrative. While some of those goals may be emotional there are other aspects of that goal that may be entirely malicious. There are differences between complaining versus creating an intentional hate narrative. Likewise, there are also psychological effects of those who push the hate narrative and the victims who are targeted. In this blog post we will discuss the goals of hate.

The Goal (s) of Hate: 

Let us think about all the reasons why someone would make up a story about someone else and/or a group and then push that story as a call to action . I'm sure you can think of many. When people are upset they can sometimes make up a story to help themselves fell better through punishing those who made them feel lower (i.e. keep in mind the concept of feel/feelings as an internal driven event versus an externally generated event. Another person can't make you feel anything unless it was there already. Sometimes those feelings are valid and sometimes they are not valid but the way we respond to them defines us.) Usually they complain to a few friends and that is the end of that. Its normal to feel a little jaded when things don't go your way but one should do so truthfully to create the most beneficial outcomes possible. In this scenario the goal is deflection of uncomfortable feelings

You might also meet someone really toxic who tries to spread as many rumors as they can in order to harm someone else (or group or family). These reputation attacks are often designed to isolate and diminish the targets in some way that could lead to contextual dangers. It happens in small towns a lot because reputation is everything. This becomes especially more true if someone feels they have something juicy to spread their false beliefs as facts (I don't believe in facts but just most plausible outcomes based on the data provided.). There will be manipulation, leaving out information, switching things around, projection of feelings, etc. to create that "narrative". In my experience they talk to everyone who will listen in order to spread the toxic viewpoints as false justification for bad/criminal behaviors. 

The goal in this case becomes more sinister because not only do they want to deflect uncomfortable feelings they do so in a way to lower value through reputation damaging stories, create barriers between people/communities, and seek to damage the other person as much as possible. In my experience, people like this almost never have the story right and the narrative they create is designed to control, manipulate and/or harm others. They may be completely at fault but they don't really care because truth is a social reality. We have all met a few people like this and generally we stay away. 

If these toxic behaviors set off a bigger chain of events then we have an issue. That becomes doubly so if they intentionally manipulated information in order to isolate and harm the victim(s). That could include encouraging people to be aggressive, lie about, ostracize, pick fights, show anger, and all the ways in which someone with dark triad traits would seek to create leverage. It moves beyond just bad behavior but could be very dangerous because one does not know the end result of such unleashed venom. Triply so if they have a lot of open ear friend network/clan unhappy with life or percolating jealousies.

A couple of studies to look at:

1. Hate is found in up to 25% of speech in many cases in college. It could be an indication of hate as a tool. I wonder if it is found more hate in older people? The young, except the radicalized young, seem to be much more open minded when compared to generations of the past. Something to look at in the future. Prevalence and Psychological Effects of Hateful Speech in Online College Communities

2. In this study we find that hate lowers certain neural functions that in turn reduce empathy taking among groups and in turn the inability to see the targets as worthy of fair treatment. Think about this one for a second. If you can triangulate a group to involve themselves through speech alone you can get them to act on targets (i.e. the slogan yelled at the Capital Riots was "Hang Pence". People acted on that and had no idea what they were talking about or the other factors or facts. I think they would have did it in hindsight. ). Exposure to hate speech deteriorates neurocognitive mechanisms of the ability to understand others’ pain

3. The UN has a discussion common targets of hate speech and the increase in trends. 'Targets of Hate'

4. The University of Sussex offers some of the motivations of hate and how there can be a number of factors that create motivation. 'Causes and Motivations of Hate'

5. It is also possible that when hate speech starts to increase, it can impact the amount of hate crimes in an area. The study by Cornell found that the amount of hate oriented speech on twitter was associated with the amount of hate crimes in that city (It wouldn't be a cause most likely, it would be a symptom). Race, Ethnicity and National Origin-based Discrimination in Social Media and Hate Crimes Across 100 U.S. Cities

What we find by looking at such situations is that hate speech has a goal and often that is to control, diminish others so as to raise or protect one's own status. The goal and the ability of the person to manipulate their environment is inherently of concern. When these intentional stories are spread it can be very difficult to minimize and that is why they are used in hate crimes, ethnic cleansing, and other power over events that have turned out to be atrocities later. As the narrative morphs through official and unofficial positions/channels it creates a backdrop for future hate as a social expectation (Unless one ensures that it isn't allowed so as to avoid future coordinated hate. That is called accountability. This is why integrity of legal systems and law enforcement is necessary.). 

It does say something about the strength of some of these institutions and whether they are more concerned about official functions or shadow functions such as groups, race, ethnicity, friends, etc. There are slightly different goals for each department governance levels and as one expands outwards the needs of the local social group become of less concern as objectives become different. Taking people out of their groups often helps them see different perspectives. In clan based networks, they share a sense of world view and that can be socially distorting if not challenged (There are many different types of victims of this behavior. Kind of why I'm writing this now. So I challenge and I challenge and push against the speeding train that may someday run out of track.) 

When systems treat each other fairly and universally they will come out on top as trusted entities. When certain crimes are allowed to happen in an effort to maintain ones group/clan status, superiority of religion or race, or simply because one holds false views of others and/or the power to enforce the false beliefs then we have an issue. These types of behaviors occurred at different times in history, so we also should be watchful of these things happening again. That is why we should always be diligent and on watch.  

There is a threshold that should not be crossed with words and actions. That becomes increasingly possible when the wrong narratives are created to lower social inhibitions of aggressive behaviors. This is probably why we need a better understanding of how mental health leads to hate in groups.

P.S. I think we can maybe discuss the type of people who believe, act, and spread such ideas and their quality of character and personal identity issues.