Sunday, August 1, 2021

GDP up 6.5% and Personal Consumption Expenditures Up

The economy is still moving forward but not at the break speed that many analysis first expected. We are a big economy so an increase of 6.5% GDP isn't the worst thing that could happen. As our infrastructure changes we may see higher growth rates as innovation improves and new efficiencies are found through communication and transport improves (i.e. rail, Delta County Shipping, data infrastructure, space exploration, etc...)

Here are a few highlights.....

Personal Income Up a Little:

"Personal income increased $26.1 billion (0.1 percent) in June according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $2.6 billion (less than 0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $155.4 billion (1.0 percent)." BEA, 2021

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

GDP is the primary way that government determines economic growth. It isn't a perfect system and doesn't reflect digital GDP that well. However, it is the imperfect tools we use today and likely will be adjusted when more data comes "online" from a global perspective. 

GDP is a big word that economists throw around each time the conversation gets interesting. "Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. As a broad measure of overall domestic production, it functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country’s economic health" (Investopedia).

International Monetary Fund (IMF) has a great description of GDP and how it functions in society. They use a number of different ways of looking at it. See IMF GDP.

  • GDP = C + G + I + NX.
You can gain some insight from a video on GDP by CNBC. See GDPCNBC

The Bureau of Economic Analysis uses 13 indicators of GDP. See US Economic Analysis  


Press Release from the U.S. Commerce Department below(I put in some highlights of some things that spark my interest.)...

Statement from U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo on Q1 2021 GDP Advance Estimate

Today, the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the advance estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2021, finding that real gross domestic product increased at a 6.4-percent annual rate.  Personal consumption expenditures increased by a robust 10.7-percent annual rate, while business investment in equipment and intellectual property products continued to grow steadily.

U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo issued the following statement in response:

"Today’s GDP report is encouraging. President Biden took swift, decisive action in his first 100 days to vaccinate Americans, deliver relief to families and businesses, and set the stage for a sustainable economic expansion for all Americans.

The President entered office with a plan to Build Back Better, and as he said last night, America is moving forward, but we can’t stop now.  A simple bounce-back is not sufficient.  We need the strategic investments included in the American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan to not only return to where we were prior to the pandemic, but to build our country and our economy back better. We need big, bold actions that invest in our families, our workforce, and our infrastructure that position America to out-compete on the global stage for decades to come."

BUREAUS AND OFFICES

Wednesday, July 28, 2021

Bi-Partisan Senate Infrastructure Bill (July 28th, 2021)

The Senate passes a bi-partisan infrastructure bill. It will go through a process of amendment and further debate on details. Senators voted 67-32 to advance the bill; 17 Republicans and all 50 Democrats voted yes. This bill will hopefully have a fairly large impact on the quality of access to information and improve upon our general infrastructure to create net positives and improve U.S. competitive advantages (Let's not forget China is already working on its infrastructure.) There are opportunities to include education and information sharing networks for cluster development (One choice leads to others. Doors open and close.)

I'm happy my fellow Republicans supported an infrastructure bill  (Enough wiggle room to still get things done beyond partisan politics. Both sides are guilty of this and if the idea seems solid and likely to have beneficial traction we should consider it.). That doesn't mean it needs to be supported in whole or that there isn't room for some debate. Yet we do know that as a nation we have been loosing our competitiveness and this is the time for us to use the disruption of Pandemic to bring back manufacturing (See Chaos Theory). That won't happen unless we allow for efficiencies (and innovation) that would be much more difficult to mimic somewhere else. 

Some might be opposed to unions and I say it depends. I'm not really opposed to them because in many ways the American worker has suffered over the past few decades; if not more. There is a balance to be played. The radical unionization of the past with its rigid structure and slow ability to adjust to changing times is likely on its way out. Unions may end up being more flexible in their approaches and seek to create greater partnerships with companies (Like anything there are pros and cons to just about everything. I've seen unions damage industries and in some instances I have seen them improve them through rounding out decisions. Long term strategic decision making will be needed. ) 


We might also consider pondering a modern tax system to draw intellectual capacity and advanced manufacturing opportunities. See Calibrated Digital Tax System.

The following is taken directly from the White House Press Release....

FACT SHEET: Historic Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal


Today, the President and the bipartisan group announced agreement on the details of a once-in-a-generation investment in our infrastructure, which will be taken up in the Senate for consideration. In total, the deal includes $550 billion in new federal investment in America’s infrastructure. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal will grow the economy, enhance our competitiveness, create good jobs, and make our economy more sustainable, resilient, and just.

The deal will create good-paying, union jobs. With the President’s Build Back Better Agenda, these investments will add, on average, around 2 million jobs per year over the course of the decade, while accelerating America’s path to full employment and increasing labor force participation.

President Biden believes that we must invest in our country and in our people by creating good-paying union jobs, tackling the climate crisis, and growing the economy sustainably and equitably for decades to come. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal will deliver progress towards those objectives for working families across the country. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal:

  • Makes the largest federal investment in public transit ever
  • Makes the largest federal investment in passenger rail since the creation of Amtrak
  • Makes the single largest dedicated bridge investment since the construction of the interstate highway system
  • Makes the largest investment in clean drinking water and waste water infrastructure in American history, delivering clean water to millions of families
  • Ensures every American has access to reliable high-speed internet
  • Helps us tackle the climate crisis by making the largest investment in clean energy transmission and EV infrastructure in history; electrifying thousands of school and transit buses across the country; and creating a new Grid Deployment Authority to build a clean, 21st century electric grid

The President promised to work across the aisle to deliver results for working families. He believes demonstrating that democracies can deliver is a critical challenge for his presidency. Today’s agreement shows that we can come together to position American workers, farmers, and businesses to compete and win in the 21st century.

Roads, Bridges, and Major Projects

One in five miles, or 173,000 total miles, of our highways and major roads and 45,000 bridges are in poor condition. Bridges in poor condition pose heightened challenges in rural communities, which often may rely on a single bridge for the passage of emergency service vehicles. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal will invest $110 billion of new funds for roads, bridges, and major projects, and reauthorize the surface transportation program for the next five years building on bipartisan surface transportation reauthorization bills passed out of committee earlier this year.  This investment will repair and rebuild our roads and bridges with a focus on climate change mitigation, resilience, equity, and safety for all users, including cyclists and pedestrians. The bill includes a total of $40 billion of new funding for bridge repair, replacement, and rehabilitation, which is the single largest dedicated bridge investment since the construction of the interstate highway system. The bill also includes a total of $17.5 billion for major projects that are too large or complex for traditional funding programs but will deliver significant economic benefits to communities.

Safety

America has one of the highest road fatality rates in the industrialized world. The deal invests $11 billion in transportation safety programs, including a new Safe Streets for All program to help states and localities reduce crashes and fatalities in their communities, especially for cyclists and pedestrians. It will more than double funding directed to programs that improve the safety of people and vehicles in our transportation system, including highway safety, truck safety, and pipeline and hazardous materials safety.

Public Transit

America’s transit infrastructure is inadequate – with a multibillion-dollar repair backlog, representing more than 24,000 buses, 5,000 rail cars, 200 stations, and thousands of miles of track, signals, and power systems in need of replacement. The deal invests $39 billion of new investment to modernize transit, and improve accessibility for the elderly and people with disabilities, in addition to continuing the existing transit programs for five years as part of surface transportation reauthorization.  This is the largest Federal investment in public transit in history, and devotes a larger share of funds from surface transportation reauthorization to transit in the history of the programs. It will repair and upgrade aging infrastructure, modernize bus and rail fleets, make stations accessible to all users, and bring transit service to new communities. It will replace thousands of transit vehicles, including buses, with clean, zero emission vehicles.  And, it will benefit communities of color since these households are twice as likely to take public transportation and many of these communities lack sufficient public transit options.

Passenger and Freight Rail

Unlike highways and transit, rail lacks a multi-year funding stream to address deferred maintenance, enhance existing corridors, and build new lines in high-potential locations. The deal positions Amtrak and rail to play a central role in our transportation and economic future. This is the largest investment in passenger rail since the creation of Amtrak 50 years ago. The deal invests $66 billion in rail to eliminate the Amtrak maintenance backlog, modernize the Northeast Corridor, and bring world-class rail service to areas outside the northeast and mid-Atlantic. Within these totals, $22 billion would be provided as grants to Amtrak, $24 billion as federal-state partnership grants for Northeast Corridor modernization, $12 billion for partnership grants for intercity rail service, including high-speed rail, $5 billion for rail improvement and safety grants, and $3 billion for grade crossing safety improvements.

EV Infrastructure

U.S. market share of plug-in electric vehicle (EV) sales is only one-third the size of the Chinese EV market. The President believes that must change. The bill invests $7.5 billion to build out a national network of EV chargers. This is the first-ever national investment in EV charging infrastructure in the United States and is a critical element in the Biden-Harris Administration’s plan to accelerate the adoption of EVs to address the climate crisis and support domestic manufacturing jobs. The bill will provide funding for deployment of EV chargers along highway corridors to facilitate long-distance travel and within communities to provide convenient charging where people live, work, and shop.  Federal funding will have a particular focus on rural, disadvantaged, and hard-to-reach communities.

Electric Buses

American school buses play a critical role in expanding access to education, but they are also a significant source of pollution. The deal will deliver thousands of electric school buses nationwide, including in rural communities, helping school districts across the country buy clean, American-made, zero emission buses, and replace the yellow school bus fleet for America’s children. The deal invests $2.5 billion in zero emission buses, $2.5 billion in low emission buses, and $2.5 billion for ferries. These investments will drive demand for American-made batteries and vehicles, creating jobs and supporting domestic manufacturing, while also removing diesel buses from some of our most vulnerable communities. In addition, they will help the more than 25 million children and thousands of bus drivers who breathe polluted air on their rides to and from school. Diesel air pollution is linked to asthma and other health problems that hurt our communities and cause students to miss school, particularly in communities of color and Tribal communities.

Reconnecting Communities

Too often, past transportation investments divided communities – like the Claiborne Expressway in New Orleans or I-81 in Syracuse – or it left out the people most in need of affordable transportation options. In particular, significant portions of the interstate highway system were built through Black neighborhoods. The deal creates a first-ever program to reconnect communities divided by transportation infrastructure.  The program will fund planning, design, demolition, and reconstruction of street grids, parks, or other infrastructure through $1 billion of dedicated funding.

Airports, Ports, and Waterways

The United States built modern aviation, but our airports lag far behind our competitors. According to some rankings, no U.S. airports rank in the top 25 of airports worldwide. Our ports and waterways need repair and reimagination too. The bill invests $17 billion in port infrastructure and $25 billion in airports to address repair and maintenance backlogs, reduce congestion and emissions near ports and airports, and drive electrification and other low-carbon technologies. Modern, resilient, and sustainable port, airport, and freight infrastructure will support U.S. competitiveness by removing bottlenecks and expediting commerce and reduce the environmental impact on neighboring communities.

Resilience and Western Water Infrastructure

Millions of Americans feel the effects of climate change each year when their roads wash out, airport power goes down, or schools get flooded. Last year alone, the United States faced 22 extreme weather and climate-related disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each – a cumulative price tag of nearly $100 billion. People of color are more likely to live in areas most vulnerable to flooding and other climate change-related weather events. The deal makes our communities safer and our infrastructure more resilient to the impacts of climate change and cyber attacks, with an investment of over $50 billion. This includes funds to protect against droughts and floods, in addition to a major investment in weatherization. The bill is the largest investment in the resilience of physical and natural systems in American history.

Clean Drinking Water

Currently, up to 10 million American households and 400,000 schools and child care centers lack safe drinking water. The deal’s $55 billion investment represents the largest investment in clean drinking water in American history, including dedicated funding to replace lead service lines and the dangerous chemical PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl). It will replace all of the nation’s lead pipes and service lines. From rural towns to struggling cities, the deal invests in water infrastructure across America, including in Tribal Nations and disadvantaged communities that need it most.

High-Speed Internet

Broadband internet is necessary for Americans to do their jobs, to participate equally in school learning, health care, and to stay connected. Yet, by one definition, more than 30 million Americans live in areas where there is no broadband infrastructure that provides minimally acceptable speeds – a particular problem in rural communities throughout the country. The deal’s $65 billion investment ensures every American has access to reliable high-speed internet with an historic investment in broadband infrastructure deployment, just as the federal government made a historic effort to provide electricity to every American nearly one hundred years ago.

The bill will also help lower prices for internet service by requiring funding recipients to offer a low-cost affordable plan, by creating price transparency and helping families comparison shop, and by boosting competition in areas where existing providers aren’t providing adequate service. It will also help close the digital divide by passing the Digital Equity Act, ending digital redlining, and creating a permanent program to help more low-income households access the internet.

Environmental Remediation

In thousands of rural and urban communities around the country, hundreds of thousands of former industrial and energy sites are now idle – sources of blight and pollution. 26% of Black Americans and 29% of Hispanic Americans live within 3 miles of a Superfund site, a higher percentage than for Americans overall. Proximity to a Superfund site can lead to elevated levels of lead in children’s blood. The deal invests $21 billion in environmental remediation, making the largest investment in addressing the legacy pollution that harms the public health of communities and neighborhoods in American history, creating good-paying union jobs in hard-hit energy communities and advancing economic and environmental justice. The bill includes funds to clean up superfund and brownfield sites, reclaim abandoned mine land and cap orphaned gas wells.

Power Infrastructure

As the recent Texas power outages demonstrated, our aging electric grid needs urgent modernization. A Department of Energy study found that power outages cost the U.S. economy up to $70 billion annually. The deal’s $73 billion investment is the single largest investment in clean energy transmission in American history.  It upgrades our power infrastructure, including by building thousands of miles of new, resilient transmission lines to facilitate the expansion of renewable energy. It creates a new Grid Deployment Authority, invests in research and development for advanced transmission and electricity distribution technologies, and promotes smart grid technologies that deliver flexibility and resilience. It invests in demonstration projects and research hubs for next generation technologies like advanced nuclear reactors, carbon capture, and clean hydrogen.

Offsets

In the years ahead, the deal will generate significant economic benefits. It is financed through a combination of redirecting unspent emergency relief funds, targeted corporate user fees, strengthening tax enforcement when it comes to crypto currencies, and other bipartisan measures, in addition to the revenue generated from higher economic growth as a result of the investments.

Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Capitol Riot Officer Fanone Wants Leaders to Recognize Their Sacrafice

The police officers of the Capitol Riots had a tough job that day. It wasn't coffee, check lists and patrol as usual. When chaos occurs and people must fall back on their training and instinct is when we know things got serious. What happened during this time was not a pure coincidence and was more likely a result of multiple factors coming to head at one time (pandemic, sociological shifts, foreign manipulation of media, possible "agents" hyping the crowd, etc...etc...) It was not a normal day for these officers and for the nation that could have been thrown into violence if a mob would have turned right instead of left down a hallway that led to other congress members (This was a serious day that forces us to reflect on our political dysfunction on both sides. I don't know if all of our politicians are truly grasping he danger of hyper politics and its rhetoric and lack of wide reaching solutions.) 

In this battle for America's soul we have those who follow the Constitution and those who follow a narrow sense of what American should look like (Its not pro or anti any party. Its what they see America to be). In many ways I wish I could have been there to help. We have one country and attacking the capital never was the solution to our problems (Whether spontaneous or more guided.). We should encourage our leadership to work together to bring different perspectives back to the center of rational thought. That is hard when we sideline those who want partisan solutions for those who seek to pull us in opposite directions (Talking louder and smarter are different things!). This is our time in our history to stand up for essential principles beyond our political aspirations.

Sometimes we can see the trends growing...... See Research on Gab Media Hate,  Social Media and Hate and Michigan Extremism-Hate Reform Idea ...sometimes we don't have the foresight or political capital to act early and we are not prepared for curve balls like this. 

Conference Board Says Consumer Confidence Up July 27th, 2021

Consumer confidence is rising and generally that prompts that people want to buy things. Much of our economy (I believe around 75%) is driven by consumer spending. When confidence rises people spend more and the economy improves. We should remember that one of the reasons we have boom and bust economies is because of spending, supply, and contraction/expansion of that supply/demand network. That will hold true until we move into a higher level digital platform where such flow disruptions are lessened through better management and preemptive cycle adjustments (One of the benefits of big data. There are some detractors as well. I don't know. Sounds ok. )

The following was taken from The Conference Board

"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® was relatively unchanged in July, following gains in each of the prior five months. The Index now stands at 129.1 (1985=100), up from 128.9 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose from 159.6 to 160.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—was virtually unchanged at 108.4, compared to 108.5 last month." 

You can tell from the charts on their page that the pandemic wasn't as long term disruptive as thought because the entire world economy shuttered at once like a reset button. There was enough digital technology available to push companies to adapt quickly and that will continue as more mature models are developed (remember that digital business models are relatively new). While the economy slowed much of it was the acceptance of consumers who banked their money and came out strong with spending. 

Bergman, Axne Introduce Bipartisan Protecting Patients from Medicaid Fraud Act

 A couple of quick comments because I'm a little busy tonight. :) I would say that any time we can cut waste we are stretching the dollars further. We as Americans pay our monies into this system that could be used for other resources. If we are going to continue to do that we must make sure its not a "cash cow" for shifty vendors. 

This was taking from District 1 Congressman News......

Don't Get UPSET? Multiple Ways to Solve UP Drug Problems

Drugs are a problem in just about every city in America. While we have tried different strategies we can't seem to get out of the drug hole as the poison leaks into the community and destroys futures. According to an article by Public Radio 90's Nicole Walton entitled 'UPSET arrests Delta County man on drug, gun charges', "Detectives seized about 34 grams of suspected crystal meth, a small amount of suspected heroin/fentanyl, more than $3,600 and a loaded handgun that was reported stolen." (Walton, 2021, para 2)


As we think about national policy places like Delta County (DC) offer opportunities to try out ideas when they seem beneficial (It would need a little more  multi-department and community coordination of different institutions.. i.e. courts, police, mental health, social work, government programs, new jobs, community groups, public awareness, etc...). The beauty of DC is that its small and isolated enough to have a better grasp of the factors involved. See Systems Thinking and Small Community-University Collaboration.

1. Strategic Enforcement and Judicial Involvement:  

We will need to get smarter about our long term goals as they relate to communities and drug enforcement. We can't jail our way out of drug use; at least not with users. The users are so beaten and battered in life its little like throwing a blanket over the little light seeping into their world. Better to require rehab and/or counseling in lieu of jail time in most cases (Its not perfect but its more in line with long term solutions and provides the most options. Perhaps science will advance to the point that rehab is more outpatient than anything. Remember its chemical and emotional dependence.)

Strategic supply chain disruption helps slow the spread of drugs (We have to think beyond DC). While local officials look for key indicators/markers of drug activity in their towns and begin investigating there is a much wider supply chain at work outside the U.P.. Disrupting could include international intervention, local first contact with drug users, in and out-state coordination, etc.. Some strategies raise costs on users (to shift toward something healthier with matched services), some are designed to create chaos to disrupt, others are designed to funnel networks into specific arenas that net larger groups. Big data matched with coordinated enforcement along the entire chain can make a big difference. See Big Data, AI, Followership Behaviors , Hidden Network Activity and Signature Base Anomaly Method and See Modern Supply Chains

 An overriding strategy would be helpful to  "touch" various supply chain locations as needed (i.e. disrupting one, taking another chain down completely down, criminal network chaos and monitor, raising the cost in one chain to push coordinated activities down other supply chains where legal traps are waiting, etc...).  We can review other intelligence/analysis methods to clean our society of certain behavior that we agree as a society should not be working in the black market. Sometimes we can crossbreed different fields of study to discover new things. (Its possible to analyze macro and micro networks to determine flow, resources, intention and activities). You can see a published version of something similar  Markov Method for Discovering Nefarious Networks

Perhaps we might want to get tough on big distributors and those who make these drugs. Makes sense to me as these are the most destructive members that prey upon the lives of others. Willful intent to harm others based upon personal gain is anti-social by nature. Smaller criminals are important but they are mixed with other primary needs (i.e. usage and source of income) much more than pure greed and profit (...many petty dealers are selfish but some are just dumb and young and make a few bucks peddling to their friends. Kind of different animals by nature.)

2. Mental Health and Community Engagement: 

People love to judge and few love to understand; Its part of our nature (...remember the whole beam in your own eye and speck in others story?). Drug users have lots of the wrong kinds of friends and not enough of the right kind. Remember there is a real person in there that was dragged into a world many of us will not understand because we do not have a conception of the multiple traumatic factors that get them there. It is possible to move people into a productive life with proper community intervention and mental health (rehab) as long-term strategies.     

I'm not going to quote all the details but in essence it would take a community to connect to users so they can get the help they need (I've seen where mental health help would have provided the best long term solution and we instead inadvertently pushed them down a criminal path. ) It takes a community of happy people who want to see the best outcomes for those suffering. Instead of being fearful someone is coming out of prison we should be happy they are coming out of rehab and engage them to change their friend networks and employment options (Social networks is where people often fail. Lets find them alternatives and be wise about our activities. Lots of great volunteers out there looking to mentor and listen.)

3. Economic Opportunity and Hope:

Things go south when opportunity and hope dry up. Its important for people to feel like they have prospects for the future and with a little effort can change their world. As a community we would want to develop opportunities and reintegrate people back into the working community. While the cluster model I'm working on is focused on business generation/attraction it may also work in part to reintegrating people through business start-ups, apprenticeships, entry level positions, and much more. There are different positions for different skill levels. See Delta County Cluster Model

So many different drug philosophies but most haven't worked well because they are limited in focus and don't seem to understand the wider psycho-socio-economic factors. I'm throwing out a few ideas I came up with thinking about the recent local bust. Congrats for those who did it and hopefully it will put a dent in local drug manufacturing and distribution. Perhaps we can also move toward longer term prevention strategies by employing interested stakeholders and integrating them into a better drug buts, rehab, and reintegration flow. 

If your interested in more information on UPSET and likely where to report tips you might want to contact their webpage. See Upper Peninsula Substance Support Team.

"The Upper Peninsula Substance Enforcement Team (UPSET) is a multi-jurisdictional narcotics task force that serves all fifteen counties of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. UPSET’s foremost objectives are to bring narcotics awareness, education, and enforcement into the communities of the Upper Peninsula.

UPSET readily collaborates and works with local, state, and federal agencies in an effort to combat narcotic use, distribution and sale across the Upper Peninsula.
"

Walton, N. (July 23, 2021, para 2). UPSET arrests Delta County man on drug, gun charges. Public Radio,  90. https://www.wnmufm.org/post/upset-arrests-delta-county-man-drug-gun-charges#stream/0 

Monday, July 26, 2021

US and China Talks-Frosty and Likely not Fun

 I'm watching the talks between the U.S. and China (as a growing trend). We have two major super powers that want to find a way to work with each other. Part of the argument is that American companies felt taken advantage of by China. I'm sure China has a few complaints or otherwise they wouldn't be there. What we can say is that there are some things we can work together on and that is climate change and pollution. It impacts both societies and that might be a nice place to start in any long term negotiations (When I did some union-mgmt. negotiating in the past I thought about similarities and tried to find where both parties agreed and where they didn't. Defining/breaking down further and further until we get to the root of the difference makes sense. Most often its ideological but sometimes if we use these root agreed upon assumptions we can find other similarities.). 

At the end of the day its two different ideologies competing. They both will be impacted by climate change and other global issues. 

I'm not making a judgement...but like to watch how events unfold.