Partisan Perceptions of the Economy (Hypothetical Feather Party)

People believe that partisanship doesn't have a negative impact on perception or society. In some way the other side just doesn't get it! (Doesn't matter the side). The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index  found that one's positive or negative look on the economy depends significantly on which party you belong and which party the president belongs. Study US Consumer Partisanship Bias. Its the same economy but much of what you believe is socially constructed. That means there is a little fact and a little fiction in people's beliefs. 

Interesting it also found that independents are more accurate in their perceptions than the two other parties. I call this anchoring. Right and Left are anchored to their party beliefs and their ideologies while independents seem to be anchored more to what they see in the environment (Makes sense as they would be independent thinkers as well). Without that bias they can see things a little clearer than others who use a heavy mental filter. We typically call this objectivity, versus black/white thinking, and it impacts almost all of our thoughts and perceptions about life. 

Now that you know that party bias can be significant we can also think about ways to limit bouncing between polar extremes in our decision making. its probably not that great for the country if the good things of one party are undone by another and then undone again. Thus to build from each others perceptions and prior works might waste less resources. Thus, one might need to think about finding a smoothing factor that eases transitions and anchors more to environmental data. 

(Thinking, thinking, thinking....)

My idea was a Feather Party made up of independents (their cognitive style) which is can agree or disagree with any ideology based on how they understand the problems at hand. This is for theoretical discussion on third party systems. A loose guide for making decisions from a science, long term strategic, evidence based decision making process that focuses on the needs of the next generation and the long term health of the nation. All parties will do this in general but they also have other objectives. Thus purely on the barebones of necessity, i.e. like running a large company/organization, might help in the overall process of choice making. 

Its a silly sort of thought experiment. I like thought experiments as they allow you to explore the possibilities. A study as presented here indicates that a stronger independent voting block with the presence of independent officials and administrators could help improve the overall accuracy of decision making. It doesn't mean anyone is all right and all wrong but that having people now swayed wholy by party affiliations can lead to balance. My suggestion at the moment, subject to change, is about 15% of the population who identified as independents would help if they could coordinate through party affiliated open discussions based on important societal questions. 

Delta County Board of Commissioners Meeting (11/19/2024): Renewable Energy, Bike Paths, Snap Benefits and Investigations

Interesting discussions on things like energy, biking, department effectiveness and investigations. You might find some more stuff but I thought about some interesting points below. No one has to draw a particular conclusion but just sort of understand what is going on in the area and the different ways in which local governments navigate change. They are doing better here then on a national scale as they seem to be focused on local community much more as the politics of it all is at a minimum (Leaders should encourage togetherness more than politics and that helps create a stronger society.). You see this collaboration when you have people committed to their community.  

-Renewable energy ordinance review. A few grants for farms and small business that seek to improve their renewable energy and efficiency. Rural Energy for American Program. I have to be honest even though it is not a popular opinion in some circles. I'm generally supportive of renewable and sustainable energy and redundancy in our somewhat out of date national energy infrastructure. Having local energy is a good thing. The costs/benefits and type are open to debate. 

-Bike paths. Electric bikes and other bikes are becoming more common. While we do not have conjestion we do have a healthy lifestyle. It can also be used to support bike tourism that could relate in part to other outdoor activities of the area. i.e. main as a bike lane. Bike Tourism

-Revamping departments for effectiveness. I could go on and on on the need to review the big structure every 5 years and update yearly goals (or some other way of alignment). 

-Snap benefits for veterans. This helps veterans that are not doing well financially and are over 60. Snap Benefits.

-Investigations: They are still sort of looking through some things to ensure everything makes sense. It was related to a prior issue. People just sort of have to wait to see how that turns out. 

Lively Crowd During the Second Week of Deer Camp at the House of Ludington (The Spirit of Al Capone Lives!)

Well, its almost the second week of deer camp and between the hiking through the woods and toasty warm wood stoves you got to get out and have some fun! In Escanaba we have this place called the House of Ludington that is old, haunted, historical and spirits abound everywhere (...the bar is pretty nice. It was the spirits that packed the dance floor enchanting to life with wiggles and giggles. A little wild and crazy peeps with the bar hall songs! Most like beer and wine. My favorites are rum, bourbon, or whiskey. They also have some local stuff and a good fish fry). The House Band rocked the floor playing everything from tango all the way over to local classic poka (Poka is the new in!).  A little heavy rock thrown in to round out the selection. (You can tell from their playing they have been doing this for decades and have a wide selection of songs they can tap out. A nice drum solo that makes me want to play again. Since I will be around more now I think I might practice more.) 

(Al Capone would have been proud!)           

You can check out the House of Ludington and their events HERE). (Don't spread this around too much but they say that Al Capone and his group used to sneek up out of Chicago and into Escanaba because it is over two state lines and that put them out of reach to hide their operations. 🙊  People have commented that there are tunnels that run undergroud. We used to know some people who owned the HOL and if my memory serves me correct there is a cemented doorway in the basement. I think I have seen it once like 40 years ago. The debate is whether they are steam tunnels or they are escape tunnels. I think they could have been once steam but also secretely used as product movement tunnels between the businesses lined on main street in a way that connects them. Some have also said there was once a few businesses in the area that were managed by the Mob back in the 1920s. Also a large house that was once owned by "The Family" was torn down a few years ago on the South Side. Adding to the story, some old local businesses were hinted as places where mob money laundering occurred. Apparently, they used the businesses to clean money and buy items they sent back to Chicago. Any fact in it? I think its more than a rumor because there are left over hints scattered around town, stories, and other things picked up over the years. {An interesting idea to have people search for Al Capone clues through the downtown at different businesses. i.e. a stamp in an Al Capone treasure hunt booklette to show they went to each of the participating businesses. Then you must solve the puzzle for a free meal at the HOL or something. Maybe an annual themed charity "Mobster Casino Night" where people dress up and play for charity.} Yet no one can take what is said here litterly because they are bits and pieces of unverified information. They may not be rememored or even recorded accurately but they do create the possibility of it all. I even had a relative asked out in her youth by one of the mob members to go out on a date. Apparently they were visiting "family" in the area. Maybe late 50's which would still be possible for the "business" side of the family and a close connection to relatives. If Al Capone invested in Escanaba I think you should too! the Legend of Al Capone in Northern Wisconsin and Northern Michigan Connection😂)

The spirit of Al lives on and this speakeasy was rockin just like in the Roaring 20s!

Looks similar to the old days 
when Al was around. Move over
Tulsa King...Esky King named "Mo"
is here!

A few other concepts.....

-Hunting is still declining. (I don't do much deer hunting but do like crossbow because I think its more challenging chasing small game.  But....I'm working on getting out there. ). Hunting Declining Northeast MI. 

-You can read about the House of Ludington History and Northern Michigan History. 

A couple of interesting pieces thinking about the growing music and arts activities in Escanaba area. Good for tourism.

-Music industry adds $212 Billion to the U.S. economy. Oct. 30, 2024 Music Stake Local Industries

-You may want to read the 7 Strategies for a Strong Music Scene American Planning Association Music and Cities

According to Goldman Sachs the U.S. and Global Economy Will Continue to Grow in 2025

It is good news to hear about the U.S. economy and its potential growth. We had some concerns prior to Covid that the U.S. economy was being beat out by other countries but since Covid the U.S. made some smart choices the economy seemed to bump up into a higher performing platform. Seems partially related to time, pressure to adapt and investment into infrastructure (theoretical dribble dribble). 

You may want to read Goldman Sachs 2025 Economic Projections on the general projections in the market.

A Few Key Points from the Report

“One’s country is wherever one does well.”
-Plutus
An interesting quote that makes me think
of attracting the worlds investors. 
Srong return, stable environment,
infrastructure, tax rate, etc.

-U.S. to outperform.

-Euro area to underperform

-Worldwide GDP is forecast to expand 2.7%

-US GDP is projected to increase 2.5% in 2025

-The euro area economy to expand 0.8%

-US core PCE inflation slow to 2.4% end of 2025

-Inflation decline is bringing optimism (A question is once inflation goes down under 3%, a historic low, will the economy continue to go up? The reason why this question could be important is because if inflation is low but growth is high for a large country like the U.S. with known increased in digital development that impacts the core of human capital based on recent digital era infrastructure would be we in a new economic platform. i.e. post industrial and fully over the curve into the dital era/info age. Platforms in History, 2020 Projections, and 2020 Digital GDP Structure Adaptation. So far the theory still seems to hold water. Its just a puzzle I'm working on for fun. I'm writing a book about a transactional cluster theory that will like get 2-5 readers who know me. At least I get to buy 10 copies of my own stuff and give away 8 without a signature. 😆)

-New administrative policies will impact the economy in different ways. See the report for the additional analysis. Its interesting to read. I would myself try and build on what was good in one admin (i.e. infrastructure) with what might be good in the next (policy adjustment and streamlining) so as to maximize the economic adjustments to beat the market on current strengths and weaknesses. Remember that all adjustments should be to help the average American people as well as strengthen the fundamentals for the future (big business, medium business, small business, education, environment, innovation, government efficiency/effectiveness, etc. )

*Note the post was meant to be a little free spirited and fun. 

Deloitte Q3, 2024 US Economic Projections

Sometimes its helpful to keep up with the projections about the market because it helps in making business decisions. Large companies rely on these and small businesses can rely on these as well. Understanding the market can help in determining where best to place your company's limited resources to ride adjustements in the market. There are no perfect projections as we have seen after Covid but still you can get a pretty good picture by reading these reports. Yes Its a few months old but definately worth reviewing for future projections.

"The Q3 2024 forecast indicates how robust consumer spending, high business investment, and lower interest rates have kept optimism about the US economy intact. However, risks like geopolitical tensions and persistently high inflation remain." (Kalish & Gibbard, 2024, para 1).

A few key points:

Source Deloitte

-Increase in manufacturing construction. This means investors and executives have faith in the U.S. as a manufacturing destination.

 
- US economy to grow by 2.7%. That is much higher than most advanced economies putting the U.S. between an emerging and a mature economy. Compared to other nations that is a good place. There are a few ideas floating in the intellectual world on methods of speeding innovation to enhance innovation/economic development and quality of life. I think that can come through economic clusters.

 
-Increased productivity. I'm going to add one might see this as a marker for possible human capital development when matched with higher education adjustments that seek to develop the whole person as well as align to the needs of the market to maximize.

 
-Geopolitical issues. No point in going down that rabbit hole of chaos. Improving international business relationships can help and there are lots of factors associated. Opinions are opinions but there still is some science in it all.

-Consumer spending strong. Much of our economy is based on consumer spending. The report indicates that durables are a good sign for consumers spending. As a thought, be careful about debt as you buy a bunch of stuff you may not need and don't have a lot of future value. I do this all the time. However, the other side of economic growth is investment and retention of that money within the U.S. Therefore, consider not buying stuff you don't need and in turn investing it as a contribution to economic development. Also consider your choices in purchasing that shortens the supply chain (i.e. buy local/regional) and keeps upward pressure on wages, decreases polution and improves tax revenue. (This was also part of an idea in a model of development to have an export arm/association/organiaation for local businesses and manufactuers to export to the global market in a way that increases local revenue potentially exponentially. Something like that could work for businesses within places like Delta County that can raise revenue be exporting more locally manufactured products.)

-Business investment to increase. Seems like this is a little related to manufacturing investments.

Two Scenarios: I like how they use their percentages. I sort of do this in my own thinking when I weigh and balance different possible outcomes and avenues. They are related to positive structural changes to the labor market and productivity as well as geopolitical issues. (Just as a side note the adaptations of structural market was expected in 2020 based on an analysis on how Covid would push the digital capacity upward. It actually happened and the economy sped up that was in a downward trajectory based on what would appear like the speed of transactions that we have seen in prior platform shifts in history. Theoretically anyway. )

Overall....I guess its in the positive arena.

Kalish, I and Gibbard, R. (Sept 20, 2024)
United States Economic Forecast. Deloitte. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html

Chopping Wood-Workout and Market Size

Ok not everything needs to be particularly that serious. Today I was chopping wood because I have a fireplace that I like to keep going during the colder months. Most of the time the wood comes larger then my ideal size. Personally, I like to chop thinner because of the nice flame and the ability to control the fire. i.e. if I don't feed it for 30 minutes its just about done.

Anways, I was thinking of some benefits of chopping wood as part of a fitness routine. I can burn somewhere around 150 calories in about 15 minutes. That isn't that bad if your taking a work break and decide to get some wood cut.

Wood Fitness

The other thing I thought of while I was doing some wood cutting meditation. Ok seriously, it is like meditation when you have some music in your ear and your chopping away. Nice and cook out today. The size of the global wood market is around $900 million and is expected to grow (probably not that great for the environment. I woud like more trees planted). Global firewood market.

A thought came to my mind. If I enjoyed chopping wood I could actually get paid for chopping wood into smaller pieces and charging a mark up. Great for cooking and small fires. Ok...Im seriousl not that motivated but is for some weird reason I chop too much firewood I guess I could sell the extra. Not quite a lumber jack but you get the point! Life is like that around here.

Sales Forecasting: Looking for Trends and Patterns

Forecasting helps us look at existing data and then make determinations about the future. Sometimes these are going to be correct and sometimes these are going to be inaccurate. Most of the time things work through patterns and those help define market behaviors give you a sense of the environment. 

I came across this study on sales forecasting and seasonality. They used data on consumer expenditure patterns to forecast special events so they could plan. What they did was show that it is possible to predict different components in the market with a degree of accuracy. Using Statistics for Market Forecasting

You can get a nice table of different business stats. I looke through them and it appears you can gain significant market data from them. Small Business Market Research

-Consumer Spending + .5% Sept. 2024

-The Federal Reserve Federal Funds 4.8% Interest Rate and Bank Prime 7.75%

-Consumer Price Index +.2% Oct. 2024