How the Decision Tree Can Help Make Better Business and Government Decisions

The world is complex and as this complexity increases businesses must make choices between multiple options. These options can either improve a company's position or it can limit their future option. In many ways, the business of business is decision making. Decisions over resources, strategies, time, location, products and more all work out to success or failure. When competitors win its because they were able to make better decisions within the market in which they function when compared to other businesses. To avoid this problem executives (decision makers) would want to consider the benefits of a decision making tree to help round out their business "hunches". 

It is important to note that decision making trees can be simple or they can be complex. There is a solid description in the article In What Ways Can Decision Trees Be Used for Business Decisions?.  The article provides a fairly simple explanation of how they might work. Typically they might be more complex for larger businesses where more money is involved and less complex for smaller businesses where choices are localized and risks are limited (Small business has lots of risks but one wouldn't put together a 150 page study for a corner store. The tree would be very simple.)

 We can see when we look at these trees that they are applied in business to help companies make decisions that are the most likely to end in benefit to the organization. They also can help companies determine options and what resources they have available. When done well it can also project potential revenue and/or loss (We must always keep in mind potential because even the best projections can be wrong and derailed by unexpected phenomenon.) 

How is a Decision Tree Used: Decision trees are used in science, business, investing, psychological-sociological fields, government and much more. They can even be used for your personal decision making to help you think beyond current pressures and environmental factors to better see how one choice leads to the opening and closing of multiple doors. You are balancing the use of logic, research, and common sense to come up with well thought out risks of choice.

You can review a study to see how a decision trees function in the field of psychiatry (I probably should have found a business example but this came up first in my search and you can see how this works in detailed research.). Research the Shanghai Archives of Psychiatry entitled 'Decision tree methods: applications for classification and prediction' discusses multiple decision tree models:

Variable Selection: Select most relevant input variables.

Importance of Variables: Select the most important variables.

Handling Missing Values: Dealing with missing information.

Data Collection: Using past data to predict future actions.

Data Manipulation: How to create logically consistent categories.

Pure Michigan Example:

I completed a very generic version in Pure Michigan Funding Decision.  This isn't the best example as I didn't go into great depth, and there is more I could have done, however it does provide a simplified practical view. In order to make basic decisions you will often have to study the situation to grasp the potential outcomes. Even situation there are more outcomes than listed but these were the political-practical outcomes that were most likely in my mind to occur. Thinking "Out of the Box" would likely lead to other conclusions that would not be accustomed within traditional government practices. Thus, decision trees can sometimes lead to whole new ways of looking at things (and even post sequences of outcomes.) Creativity mixed with scientific logic can often be a dynamite combination that challenges root assumptions. Its good for science, companies, and governments.

Concluding Remarks:

The decision tree opens up the possibility of seeing arguments form a logical standpoint where different choices can be quantified (i.e. to invest or not to invest in say a place like Escanaba or Delta County MI). The amount of data one includes is entirely up to them. Typically in business there may be time, cost, ROI, resources (financial, human capital, etc..), etc... involved in the decision making process and would be included in an analysis of the overall benefits taking one course of action over another. 

Abel Business Consulting helps find unique solutions to difficult business problems. An outside perspective can go a long way in defining those problems, exploring their nature, and settling on lasting strategic solutions in ways that were not previously available. Research and solutions can be focused for individual businesses or long-stemming industry problems. Initial consultation is free. http://www.abelbusinessconsulting.com/  Email Abel Business Consulting

Magee, J. (From original publish 1964) Decision Trees for Decision Making Harvard Business Review. Retrieved 03/16/2022 from https://hbr.org/1964/07/decision-trees-for-decision-making

Yan-yan, S & Lu, Y. (2015). Decision tree methods: applications for classification and prediction. Shanghai Archives of Psychiatry, 27 (2). Retrieved 03-18-2022. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4466856/

Is Putin Feeling Pressure? Payments, Economy, and Traitors!

 It is helpful to keep up with the happenings of the global markets and the pressures facing Europe, US, China, Russia, and the rest of the world. At present it appears Russia is limping along but certainly reeling on the economic and internal social side. Of course they have been ostracized by the wider international community  (save a few countries) and likely beginning to feel the risk of internal schisms and economic collapse (Likely scenarios not initially thought of in Plan A and that often comes from not scanning all of the alternatives, failing to surround yourself with people of different points of view to enhance objective thinking, and a particular covert background that focuses on the harder sides of strength versus the softer support side that leads to moral and economic strength.). Of course no one really knows what will happen but it will be interesting to watch (I am biased toward a US win.). It does appear that Russia will need to make some bigger choices about withdrawal, double down on prior strategy, or negotiate a perceived win out of Ukraine (through trying to obtain alternative security agreements between NATO and Russia.)

Economic Problems and Payments

There are indications that the Russian economy is suffering and that there has been a movement to prepare people of the pain they will endure. Serious economic difficulties and/or collapse is going to radicalize some in certain circles and likely create dissention in others. There will be increased pressure to get back to normal economic activities. Resources will scarce and lots of creative financing going on.  The Russian Economy Is Headed for Collapse,  Russia says it made a payment to avoid default, The Russian Economy Is Headed for Collapse

Internal Dissention and Traitors! 

Discussion on traitors and internal pressure which has the potential to further divide internal factions. Russian Activists and Journalists Targeted After Putin’s Call for Purge of ‘Traitors’ and Putin Vows to Rid Russia of ‘Traitors’ While Waging Ukraine War. The biggest risks are if this becomes a movement, wealthy oligarchs encourage it, and the inner circle begins to question the value of Ukraine invasion.

In a bizarre sort of way Putin could actually find himself in a prison somewhere in the future so he will not be willing to give up power easily. Expect a bumpy ride if he feels cornered or pressured. Maybe he will get out unscathed but it is becoming increasingly unlikely the longer this goes on. Self preservation should to start to kick in now. 

Escanaba Hotel and Jail Site Development Meeting: Waterfront, Hotel, Housing and Nautical Considerations Important

Escanaba Michigan Hotel-Marina-Yard Site

The hotel is very important for Escanaba and it has an opportunity to shift the developmental projects of the city. I encourage you to think about long term viability and maximizing of waterfront space for economic, tourism related, and nautical purposes. I'm not going to get into all of the proposals and the benefits/detractors of them but I will say that I like some of what was presented by Northshore Marine Terminal & Logistics who might be willing to work with a hotel to balance the two benefits (tourism and development) . 

No matter who is awarded bids I would like to say I think there is some room for a nice hotel (or hotel and condo facility) and a nice expansion of marina space that includes passenger, recreational, and military vessels (of course with different docking areas but one can certainly benefit form the other.). You will want to read the agenda because it has the proposals inside March 8th 22', Esky Agenda. It will give you an overview of what different investors are proposing.

Thinking over the proposals I like a blend of hotel/condo/studio, retail, marina, and nautical considerations could be included as a potential long term strategy to hedge different markets. We would want to do more than just put a hotel there and should maximize the waterfront for aesthetic tourist related industry while perhaps enhancing the local shipyard in some way (They do require similar type improvements. i.e. break wall, lights, etc...). Not sure how that would happen but proposals can be adjusted to allow an approach that enhances cluster benefits (i.e. hotel designed in a way that includes higher end condo/hotel living with a nice marina that raises its appeal and visitation. Retail space below and improvements to the harbor area. Opportunities to allow larger private yachts and tourism boats if they present themselves in the future.)

Thinking in terms of multiple industries such as marina, tourism, and nautical provides hedging aspects of economic growth can help us think about how one of a kind locations can be used to support different economic factors within the city. That might also raise the value of other aspects of future development that often follows recreational destinations that would be attracted to waterfront vacationing. Everything is negotiable! Once this project is started I think the cities (Escanaba and Gladstone) and Delta County might start thinking about some of the other buildings in the area and attract interest to them as well (See Esky-Gladstone Downtown, Start Up Delta County, Tourism Micro Manufacturing, Delta County Equity Fund, Escanaba Venture Capital, Attracting SME,). Still thinking about the prior happenings at the jail site. I'm just curious. 🤔

Russia-Ukraine Almost Ready to Negotiate: Russian Plan B?

It has become increasingly apparent that Russia is unlikely to secure a decisive military victory in Ukraine (Negotiation or Land Grab Tactic). Now that they haven't secured a quick victory, lack full Chinese support , and economic havoc at home they are likely working on negotiating their way out of the situation with Plan B (Lack of China Support). I suspect Putin needs some type of win and must choose to double down on a failed strategy or negotiate his way out of it. 

(I don't really know...I'm just trying to figure out the logic and how these situations are seen. Historians, academics, and researchers do this all the time.)

I suspect there is some pressure from China, Putin's inner circle supporters, and the Russian people to start negotiating a settlement. The military situation looks very bleak and his troops are beginning to falter and fall back. The quick victory didn't happen and there is little support for him to keep troops there economically or socially.

Here is the long-term damage that he may not have thought about in Plan A (The risk of using the same mental anchor to solve problems). Russia just withdrew itself in part from the world and the world economy (At least for some time.) and it may have rallied the U.S. to recognize some growing future threats (on a number of different levels) and could push the U.S. to develop further with more bi-partisan interest (Has the Iron Curtain been redrawn?). It may have also set pro-capitalist Oligarchs on a new line of thinking about who should be running the Russian government (Wow...that would be interesting! There are some incentives there for it.)

 (These aren't facts but just a way to sort of look at what is happening and make sense of it. We will have to wait and see what actually happens. We can project but time tells us what actually happens. 🤔)

House Bill 5570 (2021): No Tax on Gas In Michigan?

“We aren’t addicted to oil, but our cars are.”
 — James Woolsey

The senate and house passed House Bill 5570 (2021) 24-14 Senate and 63-39 State House that would stop collecting 27 cents per gallon in state tax revenue. It would apply to gasoline, diesel, and alternative fuels. You can see the history HERE and the actual bill HERE. Read through the bill and get a grasp of what seems most important. I pulled the following information. 

-"beginning April 18 1, 2022 through September 30, 2022, the rate of tax on motor fuel 19 under this subsection shall be zero cents per gallon". 

-"If the tax on motor fuel is zero cents per gallon under 5 section 8(1)(d), then the tax on alternative fuel is zero cents per 6 gallon equivalent".

Now decide what you believe. Lower taxes is good for economy and/or tax revenue to fund projects (You will sort of see where there is room for debate on these issues.)? At this point I think it goes to the governors office to consider accepting or vetoing.  The essential issue is Russian fuel (at least as stated) but the approaches might be different on how to deal with rising consumer costs. 

Lack of Chinese Support May Impact Russia's Plans

Everyone is talking about Russia and Ukraine. An interesting development is the signaling by China that it doesn't want to get involved and that support will likely be muted. You can read more about an analysis of the financial considerations of China in 'China can see the limits of bailing out Russia's economy'  and the difficulties that may impact China. It should be noted that much of the world is supporting Ukraine and if China becomes substantially involved there would be a subtle but noticeable and sustained impact on China's long term economic prospects as alternative business partners are sought (This is something that might benefit the U.S. as a preferred long-term trading partner. As soon as we get our political leadership to focus on solutions. There is some indication that just like in MI. our national leaders are also starting to work together through good kharma bi-partisanship. Old Dogs with New Tricks I guess.🤔 )

Lack of China's support, international backlash, Russian economic decline, and bogged down operations in Ukraine were not likely part of the initial scenario. What we also see without Chinese support is that Russian antiwar (and likely anti-Putin as the seen cause of the war.) social divisions and oligarch press (Desiring a return to normalcy so they can continue to make billions is going to create problems of sustainability.) Few choices because increased brutality to win the war will lead to increased global disdain and economic punishment but a lack of clear victory will undermine public faith in the war and those who are leading it. 

Let us just wait and see what happens.....its one possible outcome.....of many possible outcomes (Some of which are pretty ugly.).  This is where you are likely going to see desperation of Russian leadership rising and behaviors that are more symbolic to maintain a status of winning as people scramble for whatever Game Plan B was (This might end up being a historical lesson in the risks of "yes" man/woman surrounding a strong personality, diminishing institutional checks & balances,  not looking at all of the alternatives and scenarios, and always using the same "hammer everything" approach that comes from a personal outlook on life. I don't know...its possible....one scenario out of many.🤷)

Elder Asian Woman Attacked Viciously: Symptoms of What? Time for Change?

 Hate crime can be anyone on anyone as long as they have a "legitimate"(meaning not legitimate) categorized target to focus on. A behavior like this is rage and deep seated emotional imbalance with an outward projection. The target would not warrant such hate simply because she is Asian. As a people and as a community we must learn to control and manage people who have hate aggressive issues (Extremism is rising). I would be surprised if this was the first outpouring of violence and extremism from this individual. Perhaps somewhere in their life we could have derailed them from a crime like this if someone would have stepped up to prior behaviors and encouraged mental health (Why I support Michigan Track and Coding). 

I'm happy we passed the Emmett Till Anti-Lynching Act but we should have already known better. Until we focus on the essential values of what makes us American we will struggle with seeing ourselves through the same mental prism (that leads to unity). We must have an honest conversation about race and religion in this country and ensure people understand and know that our only path to the highest national performance will include raising our moral and human capital capacity to truer equality (The problem is defining that.). I believe these officers did a great job catching and taking into custody this man (Officers and people are on the same team.....if we can get some of our politicians to stop exploiting these differences. Trust me when I say their are guilty fingers pointed everywhere and into every race, religion and background. Don't believe me? I hang out with people from every background and I listen to their stories and how some define each other. The good news is the vast majority of us have no issue integrating and intermingling. Its the vocal few that get the microphone and prompt others to follow poor values. We should put down the self-oriented immaturity and focus on building the best nation the world has seen. For now lets just sit back and watch what our leaders going to do. I'm not a fan of politics but don't judge them too quickly either...they may surprise us!🤷 )