Wednesday, February 17, 2021

China is Biggest Trading Partner to EU

China is the biggest EU trading partner. You will also see in the statistics that imports into China is growing while exports to China is a lower number. The deals are may be considered mutually beneficial but defiantly more beneficial to China. China also grew during COVID while the U.S. economy shrunk. 

You will also notice that while China, U.S. and EU are the world's largest trading partner that China GDP with PPP multiplier is 16.4% and the U.S. 16.3%. That means China has a larger economy but not well distributed in terms of real wealth for people. The U.S. is much larger in terms of GDP per Capita.

It might be helpful for the U.S. to think about doing things in new ways. COVID and the digital world could be a serious game changer the U.S. if it capitalizes on opportunities. We must consider the possibility that new economic models should help the U.S. rejuvenate on our existing strengths to better master the economic supply chains of tomorrow. 

There are probably lots of great ideas out there. Mine is based off research on economic clusters and the transactions between firms that develop innovation. The big question is how do we build new clusters and power them with investments so they innovate quickly to create a sustainable economy. You can read about some of my ideas HERE. 👀

       

China and EU Trading 2020 

The Importance of Investigating Hate Crimes In Michigan (and the Nation)

 Allowing people to get away with hate crimes in the form of ethnic cleansing behavior, coordinated harassment, embezzlement, manipulating children and radicalizing their followers to act is tantamount to lawlessness. These behaviors seem grotesque and something rare but not far from how it works in various form for many Americans. In Michigan, we don't track hate crimes well, have a difficult time investigating the full crime and its associated factors, and often don't act when its needed to act. We can change and improve that to create more stability for everyone. 

There are those who stand up to hate and many good law enforcement officials that know the difference. There are others who should have never been hired, should be removed, and their backgrounds/complaints investigated. I'm thankful for the good officers who know the difference and hopeful our government will hold to account the bad officer who felt its ok (immunity) to engage in alleged criminal behavior (by the accounts of community members).

We want to understand the full scope of behavior and not ignore those behaviors we would only expect to see in the ravaged lands of third world conflict. We are struggling all over our country grasping and handling these issues appropriately. There are times when we should hold people accountable and times when we should simply create boundaries. What we can't do is pretend such behavior doesn't happen or it will rear its ugly head down the road. 

These were not people who were upset. These are people who went beyond rude behavior and into coordinated, planned aggression that focused on intimidation and could have in more than one case led to violence. They discounted the life of children and in turn have little remorse for the damage they have done. It is learned patterned behavior from years of high school bullying. While this may appear "normal" to some people, this would be seen as criminal and dangerous in standard moral value systems (assuming justice is standard and has virtue-Socrates). 

Why we must investigate and hold to account hate behaviors on a local level? Without investigation and accountability (as a general rule), our nation will be turning a blind eye to serious criminal behavior that will likely cause a major societal riff that won't be mended through "blah blah blah" political rhetoric. I think people are becoming disillusioned (the polls seem to be moving in that direction) with the talking about liberty and not acting on fundamental core values of our country. Time will tell. 

The risks of not acting: 

1.) Social Learning: We have taught others involved that such behaviors are acceptable, unlikely to be fully investigated, and that some people have more value to this country than others. We place a subconscious value of the lives of different people and different children that has nothing to do with their real value to their community and country. As people nestle into their culturally and ethnically homogenous groups they learn from each other and have a difficult time understanding and working with others (I wonder where that trend will end).

2.) Societal Instability: If this goes on long enough and is a shared experienced among a large section of society that will create doubt. When you look back to ancient Egypt when Moses was forced to secret away with his Jewish followers, Bosnia War, inter fighting in Iraq, Darfur genocide, they all have the same hate based behavior in common. One must only look at some of the sociological polls and how there is serious mistrust of institutions and what steps our leaders should take to restore that.

3.) Economic Calamity and Collapse:  We are a large state (and country) and much of our population isn't fully performing because the environment hasn't been ripe for maximum human development (i.e. education system or access to opportunity). Stepping up to hate will signal this/our population that we are a single nation with central values that apply to everyone. If we are to develop powerful human capital in this country we must ensure that everyone can reach for the same fruit. Governments job is to create an environment where people can progress and earn based on their own skills, abilities, and knowledge. 

While Asian Americans have been the target in recent weeks they are not the only ones who suffered from hate inspired violence. When our government officials do not take hate behavior seriously and let criminals walk without full accountability (with wisdom) then we know we are risking starting the beginning of the end of our great republic. Trust in our institutions requires investigation crimes and creating a sense of "universal justice".

While accountability doesn't always mean jail or criminal prosecution it does mean taking to account one's behavior. They must own and deal with these issues so that they no longer continue to be a risk to others. That may be prison time or that may be counseling; each situation is unique. It is about offering a sense of peace and justice not only to the victims but also to reorient bad behavior to a pro social end. We can't have a rehabilitation system that doesn't seek to rehabilitate.

Watch the video on attacks on Asian people. We could deal with these issues early by investigating the full crime of perpetrators, allowing for flexible local punishments, and tracking the behavior for research and investigation. Unfortunately, with our dividing political environment and shifting values (some becoming darker and some becoming more illuminated) we may not be able to stop hate incidents until we understand the gravity of the serious of choices that leads to dissolution. 

I wonder if is ready to deal with hate and better secure a future for ALL of our children? If the goal of government is economic and social prosperity then we might want to finish the work our generation was expected to complete during our lifetimes. Passing laws that help researchers track, investigate, rehabilitate people who engage in hate behavior (mental health, misdemeanor, felony) before it becomes a bigger issues is important. Some problems work themselves out naturally while others will create insurmountable rifts.  This is more than a diner squabble among family members. 

Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin Discusses $1.9 Million Relief Package

Former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin believes that further stages stimulus would be helpful. He states, "traditional economic models don't really work here". He would like to see a 5th or 6th bill get passed. Inflation could be a risk as the market becomes more flooded with govt. money but that inflation should be managed and stabilized. There should be some concern over the debt. However, he believes stimulus can be helpful for getting the economy back on track.

I think in this case he is right in terms of the economic principles are different then they were in the past. The fundamental nature of how we interact and share things has changed. The Digital GDP and Information Age are challenging a number of the old assumptions. New economic phenomenon will push our older economic models to better incorporate a digital e-commerce world.

I'm not opposed to spending money but I think that we should think mid to long term and how it will create a "net positive". Net positive means that we invest in things that can generate more value than their initial investments more business, stronger infrastructure, technological advancement, start-up businesses, worker skills, etc.... 

While the money helps today it also carries with it the potential to create a lot more value down the road. Its not just money to create liquidity alone! As a general government strategy, maximum utility of money makes sense (Read Utility Theory Here). It is possible to research and understand how money impacts outcomes in multiple venues.

While government's are generally not businesses they do need to improve their resource base so they can generate more revenue that leads to more government resources in the future (For example, when given a choice....invest for returns in things like perhaps digital infrastructure, worker skills, Great Lakes ports, online education, research, etc...).

As a nation creates more net positives they also develop economic sustainability where government expenditures increase the tax base through more economic activity that also improves the quality of life for Americans (jobs, opportunities, education, lifestyle, etc..).

Sorry...jumping off of the soap box. 😬

Republican Split? Two Ways of Thinking Heading in Different Directions

There seems to be a split coming in the GOP. While no one can say what is going to happen, we can say that two different ideologies and two different types of leaders vying for power is going to create sparks. There are fundamental differences between Traditional Republicans and Trump Republicans that might create a type of ideological split that will vibrate our political institutions. That will mean whole different ways of thinking and approaching issues (some good and some bad).

I'm all about national stability with sustained growth and improvement. Splitting the GOP party will mean much less influence for the party as a "whole". It will also cause problems for Democrats that come to find they have their own differences within their own party. If there is one large party and multiple small parties we can suspect their will be a type of implosion down the road within Democrat ranks as well when their counter balance is removed (Democrat party is built around a lot of inclusion but also because it was "against" something). 

That is not supporting any particular group as I see good that comes from healthy diversity and open dialogue. Republicans are often good at fiscal management and Democrats are often inclusive of diverse labor. Nothing wrong with fiscal management and maximizing human capital! (I know its just an opinion. 🙈🙉🙊🙏) A third party would sort of change the dynamics of how these parties interrelate. 

How does this impact our economic and business environment?

You can see Mr. President (I'm not sure how to address a former president 🤔) Trump's response to Senate Majority Leader McConnell's comments HERE.

Business Leaders of Michigan Provides Recommendations on State Budget

The Business Leaders of Michigan weighed in on the budget with their recommendations. Much of what they seek is related to education, mobility industry, and training. Through such an approach it appears they are focusing their recommendations toward 1. next generation, 2. future industries and 3. current skills available in the state. Such organizations contribute to our knowledge of how to create states that attract and develop investment and talent.

Industry recommendations are important for leaders to take note. Future industries in fields that are likely to grow take into account the current skills needed to work in these budding industries but also the long term skill needs of such an industry in the future. As industries grow there will be new learning/training occurring but long-term competitiveness will not only delve into the current worker population, but also into the next generation.

What I like about these business organizations is that they have a solid grasp on what the state needs to do in order to foster business. They are often practical in nature and focused on impacting as many industries as possible. With the chaos of our current political world the business community is the stabilizing force and have something to say. 

Strong leaders will listen to industry needs and balance that through the greater good of the population. For example, larger industries may have more sway in politics but we need lots of small start-ups to balance the income gaps. Government's job is to make decisions over the allocation of resources to achieve certain goals and objectives.

Utilizing such organizations to help understand industry needs and the global market is important. They may also act as catalysts for policy such as batch investing in new start-ups to foster state innovation. To accomplish goals like this industry and government would need to work together. There would need to be feedback loops to develop stronger policies.

Success will come from getting different entities of government-industry-society to work together to find solutions to our most pressing problems.  For example I'm doing some theory play on how to attract entrepreneurs to downtown Escanaba/Gladstone in Delta County and pack/batch invest them to build a micro manufacturing cluster. At present it's a work in progress.

Who are the Business Leaders of Michigan?

"Business Leaders for Michigan, the state’s business roundtable, is dedicated to making Michigan a Top Ten state for jobs, personal income and a healthy economy. The organization is composed exclusively of the executive leaders of Michigan’s largest companies and universities. Our members drive nearly 40 percent of the state’s economy, generate over $1 trillion in annual revenue and educate nearly half of all Michigan public university students"(1).

What do they Do?

Our work is concentrated on developing strategy, raising awareness, advocating policy and championing initiatives that grow the state’s economy. Our members know what it takes to make the economy grow and create new jobs, and they’ve distilled that knowledge into Michigan’s Road to Top Ten, a comprehensive strategy for making Michigan a “Top Ten” state for jobs, personal income and a healthy economy. Our organizational activities are geared toward achieving the goals outlined in that plan." (2).

The Recommendations:

    • -Establishing a K-12 education best practices center to help identify, replicate and scale best practices in K-12 education to improve academic performance across the state;
    • -Providing additional support for at-risk and special needs K-12 students;
    • -Implementing research-based solutions to help students recover lost learning hours due to the disruption caused by the pandemic; and
    • -Helping residents acquire the skills and credentials employers need by providing additional support for our public higher education institutions, and the Michigan Reconnect, Futures for Frontliners, and Going Pro programs.
    • -Support for a Mobility Futures Initiative to advance connected and autonomous vehicle deployment, economic and workforce development, equity and sustainability.
https://businessleadersformichigan.com/business-leaders-for-michigan-executive-budget-recommendation-prioritizes-investments-in-k-12-education-talent-and-the-mobility-industry/

Business Leaders for Michigan Executive Budget Recommendations 2021 by Dr. Murad Abel on Scribd

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) Comments on President's Acquittal

It appears from the video there is a serious debate going on in the GOP as it relates to the path going forward. There will be some who support Trump and there are those who won't. There appears to be two different groups within the party and they are vying for power and influence. While passions of the day likely rally people's spirits I believe the long term approach of the party will be based on fundamentals that have held the party together for a long time. 

For me, I'm staying close to what I believe the truth is, that which makes the best sense for our nation, and evidence based solutions to big problems. Thus, I stick with those who have more interest in the success of their nation than their own political interests. It doesn't matter who, what faction, or where other's loyalties lay. Its not really a answer but it means I will use my principles to determine what I believe and follow.

You can read Senator Mitch McConnell's page HERE.

Monday, February 15, 2021

The Long Term Dangers of Not Understanding Hate Groups at the State Level

Our minds need to change about hate in Michigan. While we know that hate is championed by dark personality traits we don't have a full grasp of its prevalence and its impact.  Political rhetoric pushed hate into minority/majority and right/left dynamics that legitimizes poor behavior. It is up to our national leaders to pull us toward the center and let evidence based decision making take precedence.

Hate isn't specific to any race or religion and is worrisome form of aggression based on psychological distortions of fear and dominance. Our future rests on people working together to set free the powerful cultural and diverse talent that will help us overcome our national challenges.

Michigan has seen hate groups come into center focus during the elections and our capital has seen its doors bashed in by extremism. Radicalism from any political leaning should not have their place in our modern storyline. 

As a state, we can choose to embrace hate and the power struggle it causes or we can accept our national purpose and move toward a freer and more enlightened society. Complicity will make it increasingly difficult to fully utilize our human capital and moral aptitude to influence the world around us.

No matter what our religion or race, we have the right to natural law that ensures we can seek to live and pursue our happiness regardless of political rhetoric. It is the same rights we had 40,000 years ago when we foraged for food and these are the same rights we have today when we have our food delivered by Amazon.

People have the right to work in their own best interest and that of the society in which we live.

Whether we practice freedoms is a social affair but we know that our most basic laws and ethics have risen to ensure people have the right to "Be".  Failure to respect life ends in societal displacement and radical change (i.e. Quakers come to American to avoid religious persecution and Americans overthrew the British for the right of representation).

Laws have purpose and if they become purposeless or ineffective they must be adjusted or removed. We don't know the extent of the crimes being committed because we have no real measurements. Allowing for more inclusive hate legislation (counseling, misdemeanor and/or felony) helps us understand, track and solve hate based behaviors before it becomes a bigger problem. 

What I can say about hate and racism is that it has almost nothing to do with the targets. Its about how the perpetrators feel about themselves and their false sense of superiority over others. Targeting others is not rational and a dark and misguided aggression that doesn't end without intervention. Whether one looks at it from a science or moral vantage points it is the one place where law and virtue can become one!

It is up to our leaders to decide if they prefer to let go of their ideological differences long enough to create a free nation running at full economic, intellectual and skill capacity that leads to innovative mastery of the capitalization of a digital environment. 



President Biden's Presidents Day Address 2021

Bill Gates: Climate Control 60 Minutes Interview

Bill Gates was interviewed by 60 Minutes on Climate Change. There is a cost to having such a large population on the world and products that don't go back into their natural state. There is also a cost to all of the fossil fuels and other power generating processes. We can reduce those long term impacts by thinking about innovation and biodegradable products.

The technology is there but it isn't yet cost effective. There will be new technology needed to scrub the planet and technology needed to adjust industry toward cleaner and more efficient use of energy. The transformation will need to occur to in a way that leads net positives through better products that have market demand.

There are two ways to look at this. We can legislate or we can innovate. Chances are we need a little of both.

First, I should say that legislation is not the answer to all of our problems but it can be a tool to push industry to change. The market is a much better system of pushing change but often doesn't respond well to things beyond current consumption.

The market has its own logic of developmental trajectory but doesn't see dangers ahead (i.e. bubbles, crashes, collapse, etc...). In other works, the market is a direct reflection of our human wants and needs and will maintain a course until those changes are needed (i.e. pollution pushes people to change).

For example, while we can see the problem of pollution and climate change growing the average person doesn't do well making these abstractions beyond their current needs. For example, "I'm worried about getting to work today and not whether I should be biking there!"

Legislation prompts change in industries and helps to create pressure to push change but it also comes with a cost as companies consider this a cost and may want to circumvent in such ways (cheat, move overseas, donate to politicians they agree with, etc...etc... etc...). 

Thus, legislation should give opportunities for industry to start working on these problems before legislating. Self-monitoring from an industry standpoint helps the government maintain oversight while allowing industry to coordinate to change. If change doesn't come, and costs rise to society then legislative grip begins to close. 

One thing I learned about riding a horse (which you can't really make this comparison 🙅) is that when you touch the reins lightly with your finger the horse will respond willingly better but if you yank back with all your might the horse might try and buck you! 😅🏇 

Government should first seek to guide industry through the collective will before mandatory legislation. Industry often response because they want to the masters of their own fate. In this case, the goal may be to make a whole new exportable Green Industry to the world. Individual companies may be willing to incorporate more robust green initiatives. 

We need a Green Industry, and the rest of the world needs it! ....and it will help us stay scientifically advanced. (Industry self regulation is also part of my research on innovation and transactional clusters). 

Using SMART to Plan Organizational Goals

Attaining of goals is a defined process that helps to increase outcomes. It isn't about shooting in the dark in hopes of blindly tripping over your goals. A little planning can go a long way in fostering positive outcomes. The SMART goal setting technique can help you define what you want to do and in the time frame you want.

Writing your goals out with specificity can be difficult and takes some time catching on. The problem with lots of goals that we make in our daily lives, like New Year's goals, is that they lack the "teeth" determine when we have accomplished them. Without some objective measurements the goals lose their ability to be tracked and monitored. 

What is SMART?

Specific: Be specific and write down exactly what you want. Don't be too broad.

Measurable: Your goals should be measurable.

Attainable: Your goals should be reasonable and realistic.

Time Bound: Make sure that you have a specific time-frame to complete your goals or they will go on forever and not be achieved.

Organizations often make goals for annual or five year stints. Short annual goals often work on the specific tasks needed for the longer term strategic goals measure in 5 years. Each person within the organization should be working on these goals in some way. 

Without following some format for writing and defining your goals it will be difficult to measure them and track them from a data standpoint. For example, if you don't know when you accomplished something the input and measurement of such goals will be left open to all types of inaccuracies.