Governor Whitmer Discusses New State Lock Downs

Governor Whitmer discussed the 3 week closures taking effect across Michigan. There are going to be some businesses that will struggle with the changes and some o them may shutter their doors. The economic and health fall out is something bigger than expected leaving experts confused. Continuing to adjust, learn, and tweak may help us better navigate the happy balance between physical and financial health. As a society different types of people are going to emphasis values they feel are important. The pandemic has forced us to make choices of what we feel is most important for ourselves and as a nation.

2020.11.15 Masks and Gather... by WXYZ-TV Channel 7 Detroit

U.S. Bans Investment in Covert Chinese Military Companies

The government bans investment and business activities in a number of Chinese companies associated with the Chinese military. Around 12 companies are of present concern (Click Here to See the List). The complaint is that these companies are feeding the Chinese military with advanced technologies and expertise gained from publicly traded companies. A quick look at the list and you will see communications, technology, chemicals, micro, infrastructure type companies.

Its the genre of the companies and their connection to military development that has the U.S. government concerned.

We are currently in a state of global competition. COVID has disrupted normal supply chains and a trade war has changed public policy. The Chinese are trying to develop their emerging technologies to place themselves at the center of the innovative capital. This Executive Order Appears to be focused on slowing information leak that leads to strengthening a growing military power. 

Companies are interconnected in multiple ways as a method of extending their capacities in the global market. Money, information, resources, employee spill over, investment capital, R&D, etc...interact with similar elements in other companies. For example, employees will leave one organization and may end up working at another carrying their knowledge and skills with them. 

When behaviors are driven by market need there isn't much to be concerned with as firms are engaged in normal business behavior. However, if movement of these elements are based on something different than market need they will act in a different way.  If we are to watch how these "development" indicators (i.e. new technologies) we can better determine other focuses of corporate behaviors. 

It appears some companies raised hit the U.S. radar.

Executive Order on Addressing the Threat from Securities Investments that Finance Communist Chinese Military Companies

 FOREIGN POLICY

 

 Issued on: November 12, 2020

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.), and section 301 of title 3, United States Code,

I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States of America, find that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is increasingly exploiting United States capital to resource and to enable the development and modernization of its military, intelligence, and other security apparatuses, which continues to allow the PRC to directly threaten the United States homeland and United States forces overseas, including by developing and deploying weapons of mass destruction, advanced conventional weapons, and malicious cyber-enabled actions against the United States and its people.

Key to the development of the PRC’s military, intelligence, and other security apparatuses is the country’s large, ostensibly private economy.  Through the national strategy of Military-Civil Fusion, the PRC increases the size of the country’s military-industrial complex by compelling civilian Chinese companies to support its military and intelligence activities.  Those companies, though remaining ostensibly private and civilian, directly support the PRC’s military, intelligence, and security apparatuses and aid in their development and modernization.

At the same time, those companies raise capital by selling securities to United States investors that trade on public exchanges both here and abroad, lobbying United States index providers and funds to include these securities in market offerings, and engaging in other acts to ensure access to United States capital.  In that way, the PRC exploits United States investors to finance the development and modernization of its military.

I therefore further find that the PRC’s military-industrial complex, by directly supporting the efforts of the PRC’s military, intelligence, and other security apparatuses, constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States.  To protect the United States homeland and the American people, I hereby declare a national emergency with respect to this threat.

Accordingly, I hereby order:

Section 1.  (a)  The following actions are prohibited:

(i)   beginning 9:30 a.m. eastern standard time on January 11, 2021, any transaction in publicly traded securities, or any securities that are derivative of, or are designed to provide investment exposure to such securities, of any Communist Chinese military company as defined in section 4(a)(i) of this order, by any United States person; and

(ii)  beginning 9:30 a.m. eastern standard time on the date that is 60 days after a person is determined to be a Communist Chinese military company pursuant to section (4)(a)(ii) or (iii) of this order, any transaction in publicly traded securities, or any securities that are derivative of, or are designed to provide investment exposure to such securities, of that person, by any United States person.

(b)  Notwithstanding subsection (a)(i) of this section, purchases for value or sales made on or before 11:59 p.m. eastern standard time on November 11, 2021, solely to divest, in whole or in part, from securities that any United States person held as of 9:30 a.m. eastern standard time on January 11, 2021, in a Communist Chinese military company as defined in section 4(a)(i) of this order, are permitted.

(c)  Notwithstanding subsection (a)(ii) of this section, for a person determined to be a Communist Chinese military company pursuant to section 4(a)(ii) or (iii) of this order, purchases for value or sales made on or before 365 days from the date of such determination, solely to divest, in whole or in part, from securities that any United States person held in such person, as of the date 60 days from the date of such determination, are permitted.

(d)  The prohibitions in subsection (a) of this section apply except to the extent provided by statutes, or in regulations, orders, directives, or licenses that may be issued pursuant to this order, and notwithstanding any contract entered into or any license or permit granted before the date of this order.

Sec. 2.  (a)  Any transaction by a United States person or within the United States that evades or avoids, has the purpose of evading or avoiding, causes a violation of, or attempts to violate the prohibitions set forth in this order is prohibited.

(b)  Any conspiracy formed to violate any of the prohibitions set forth in this order is prohibited.

Sec. 3.  (a)  The Secretary of the Treasury, after consultation with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the Director of National Intelligence, and the heads of other executive departments and agencies (agencies) as deemed appropriate by the Secretary of the Treasury, is hereby authorized to take such actions, including the promulgation of rules and regulations, and to employ all powers granted to the President by IEEPA, to carry out the purposes of this order.  The Secretary of the Treasury may, consistent with applicable law, redelegate any of these functions within the Department of the Treasury.  All agencies shall take all appropriate measures within their authority to carry out the provisions of this order.

(b)  Rules and regulations issued pursuant to this order may, among other things, establish procedures to license transactions otherwise prohibited pursuant to this order.  But prior to issuing any license under this order, the Secretary of the Treasury shall consult with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, and the Director of National Intelligence.

Sec. 4.  Definitions.  For purposes of this order:

(a)  the term “Communist Chinese military company” means

(i)    any person that the Secretary of Defense has listed as a Communist Chinese military company operating directly or indirectly in the United States or in any of its territories or possessions pursuant to section 1237 of Public Law 105-261, as amended by section 1233 of Public Law 106-398 and section 1222 of Public Law 108-375, as of the date of this order, and as set forth in the Annex to this order, until such time as the Secretary of Defense removes such person from such list;

(ii)   any person that the Secretary of Defense, in consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury, determines is a Communist Chinese military company operating directly or indirectly in the United States or in any of its territories or possessions and therefore lists as such pursuant to section 1237 of Public Law 105-261, as amended by section 1233 of Public Law 106-398 and section 1222 of Public Law 108‑375, until such time as the Secretary of Defense removes such person from such list; or

(iii)  any person that the Secretary of the Treasury publicly lists as meeting the criteria in section 1237(b)(4)(B) of Public Law 105-261, or publicly lists as a subsidiary of a person already determined to be a Communist Chinese military company, until the Secretary of the Treasury determines that such person no longer meets that criteria and removes such person from such list.

(b)  the term “entity” means a government or instrumentality of such government, partnership, association, trust, joint venture, corporation, group, subgroup, or other organization;

(c)  the term “person” means an individual or entity;

(d)  the terms “security” and “securities” include the definition of “security” in section 3(a)(10) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, Public Law 73-291, as codified as amended at 15 U.S.C. 78c(a)(10), except that currency or any note, draft, bill of exchange, or banker’s acceptance which has a maturity at the time of issuance of not exceeding 9 months, exclusive of days of grace, or any renewal thereof the maturity of which is likewise limited, shall be a security for purposes of this order.

(e)  the term “transaction” means the purchase for value of any publicly traded security; and

(f)  the term “United States person” means any United States citizen, permanent resident alien, entity organized under the laws of the United States or any jurisdiction within the United States (including foreign branches), or any person in the United States.

Sec. 5.  The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State and, as appropriate, the Secretary of Defense, is hereby authorized to submit the recurring and final reports to the Congress on the national emergency declared in this order, consistent with section 401(c) of the NEA (50 U.S.C. 1641(c)) and section 204(c) of IEEPA (50 U.S.C. 1703(c)).

Sec. 6.  General Provisions.  (a)  Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

(i)   the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or

(ii)  the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

(b)  This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

(c)  This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

Harley Rally Coming to Escanaba! Are We Maximizing Benefits?

Harley-Davidson motorcycle riders are donning their chaps and making their way to Escanaba to meet-up with fellow bike enthusiasts. July 22-24 motorcycle rally in Escanaba. The event is hosted between July 22nd-24th, 2021 by the Great Lakes Harley Owners Group. Activities include a parade to show off their spit shined chrome and a block bash to keep the good times rollin after boots hit pavement! While no one knows how many bikes and riders will visit Delta County but it is projected to be in the thousands.

Should Escanaba focus on large, small, medium or any specific event size to elevate its place as a vacation destination? One of the best ways to answer this question is to look for existing methods of creating an objective evaluation. 

To assess benefits/detractors we will want to use an evaluation tool that will help utilize a systematic process of evaluation that could help local leaders make decisions. According to the study, there are some factors we might use like 1.) economic impact, 2.) city size, and 3.) event size impact cost/revenue ratios (Agha, N., & Taks, M. (2015)

These three factors help us see what the revenue benefits when we take into consideration things like the size of the city and the size of the event. In general, small cities can handle small events and large cities can handle larger events.

Benefits 

-Spending by non-locals

-Increased spending by locals and business.

-Job creation

-Tax revenue

-etc...


-Intangible benefits.

Detractors: 

-Crowding out other visitors

-Crowding out locals.

-Crowding out local business.

-Leakage of money that could be spent here in other places. 

-etc...

-Opportunity cost of locals

Event Resource Demand and Supply

What we find here is that there are costs and benefits of any large activity like the Harley-Davidson Motorcycle Rally. We want to ensure we minimize negative impacts and maximize revenue generation. Applying the results of the study to Escanaba we find Optimal economic impact of any event occurs when locally supplied resources are equal to demanded event resources (equilibrium).

The two concepts the study uses are event resource demand (ERD) and city resource supply (CRS). From the chart below you can see there are pay offs between ERD and CRS when we move further from the resource demand/availability line (green). The goal would be to keep in equilibrium resource demands and the resource supply of the area for total maximum benefit to the community. 

You can see how event resource demand (ERD) and city resource supply (CRS) work together on an XY Chart. XY charts is common and can be used for things like a scatter chart. The only thing you need is two coordinates; one for X and one for Y.  

We may also learn that larger amounts of visitors mean there will be a larger resource pull the city must contend with. We can maximize our benefits by ensuring that we are maximizing local resources in supplying the needs of the rally. If we exceed our local capacities we could have a net negative economic impact of an event. Thus, we have to ensure we are prepared and local business engagement is maximized to make as many financial transactions as possible.  

Maximizing Economic Impact in Escanaba

Going forward we may also want to evaluate rally size and determine where our "sweat spot" size of events lay. Based on the resource allocation indicated in the study it makes sense to have as many small-medium benefits that can be adequately supported by local resources. Larger venues need additional planning to ensure our local resource (services, vendors, etc..) can meet resource demand and encourage visitors to spend locally (food, hotels, bars, retail, etc...) 

Larger events like a Harley-Davidson rally have great potential if we are able to draw together the necessary resources that ensure as much benefits are related locally as possible. From the XY Chart you will see that if you use too many resources you have less than optimal results while if you use too few you are not maximizing your growth potential. Research will give you a better idea of what range will lead to the best allocation of resources that in turn improves economic impact.

Coordination Leads to Success

One option that might be helpful here in maximizing event benefits is to coordinated with Delta County businesses to supply, manage, and handle as much of the event affairs as possible (i.e. food, cleaning, vendors, etc...). Drawing together as many businesses and coordinating them to maximize local resource use and revenue growth is helpful. Having a list of local businesses interested in servicing local events will provide for a more concise evaluation.

We might also look at the total capacity of these resources to determine the maximum size. For example, janitorial services will have maximum capacity in the say way as food venders, hotels, and even local law enforcement. Calculating how many resources are available and knowing the size and amount of events scheduled throughout the summer gives a pretty good indication of what the sweat spot is and how to maximize events without leaking past available local resources.

Collect Data for Better Understanding

To truly gain an understanding of what size events Escanaba (Delta County) should focus on attracting we will want to conduct some research into any documentation and available information on previous events and what resources and benefits were realized (historical research). If there are gaps we could reach out to the listed vendors and ask them about the impact of the events on their businesses. It is unlikely to be a perfect assessment as its post hoc and much of the information may not be available anymore, but knowing what is available is helpful to know what information we could focus on collecting in the future.

With proper coordination and planning it is possible to build the metrics that lead to an assessment of how the Harley-Davidson rally faired in terms of revenue and cost generation. We might use simple tools like meetings, surveys, taxes, etc... as well as gather information from actual visitors on how much they spent and where (total amounts per category). Assessment of revenues earned and expenses will help determine on an individual business basis the benefits of different size and amount of events. 

Follow up reviews of participating organizations leads to greater awareness of the needs of different types of venues and how we can serve them. Customer satisfaction of visiting the area doesn't leave just because the riders left. They carry with them positive or negative images of the area that will impact whether they decide to come back, share on social media or tell their friends about. There are few things better than having people come and experience the area. Knowing what our customers want will help us maximize events and event planning. 

With an impact and usage schedule we could also consider when events are being held and where we have excess capacity to draw in more events/activities. These resource draws could also include tourism, local events, etc... that all contribute to capacity. However, where we do have capacity we may want to find more events to fill slow periods during the season in a way that helps local businesses.

Should Escanaba Hold the Harley-Davidson Rally?

There isn't a good reason to not allow such rallies until will understand the cost-benefits of doing so. We do want to ensure we can adequately service the visitors for maximum customer satisfaction ranging from hotels to motorcycle mechanics. We may also want to check in with local services, vendors, law enforcement, etc... to ensure they also have the resource capacity. What might be beneficial is having a pubic meeting for any business or services that will be participating in the rally to coordinate their efforts. A successful Harley-Davidson rally means we maximized benefits such as income and taxes for local businesses in a way that enhances rally participant experiences. 

Until we really know our capacities I say "thumbs up" on Harley-Davidson rally. 

Local Contacts

If you are interested in setting up events in Delta County or want to know more about investment and business opportunities for small and large businesses you can contact Chamber of Commerce director Vickie Micheau.

Visit Escanaba Info on Harley Event

Great Lakes Harley Owners Group Facebook

Harley Owners Group

Agha, N., & Taks, M. (2015). A theoretical comparison of the economic impact of large and small events. International Journal of Sport Finance, 10(3), 199. https://go.gale.com/ps/i.do?p=ITBC&u=uphoenix&id=GALE%7CA427300891&v=2.1&it=r&sid=ebsco

Happy Veteran's Day-Bigger than Self!

Happy Veterans Day for those who served. Since the beginning of the American military the institution has developed and enhanced people to overcome the dangerous threats our nation may face. Veterans are part of a special club where each person is aware of and has accepted certain values that come with military training and institutional life. 

The history of the U.S. military helps us connect to our past and create a bridge between veteran's of the past and veteran's of the future. Those themes become in part what our veteran's fought for and are embedded into our national conscious. 

There are differences in perception between veteran's and those who have not served.  Veteran's gain an understanding of bigger responsibilities to society and the world around them. The very process of working in large groups gains a sense of being something within a larger group. 

Happy Veteran's Day and we honor the sacrifices you have made. We only hope we do justice to those beliefs in the civilian world. 

A moment of silence on the NYSE

Next Steps in Theoretical Works-The Case of Transactional Clusters

There are stages to development of new theoretical models and it can take decades to create something feasible that with hope accurately explains and predicts our environment. Theory development is not rigidly linear but often moves in multiple exploratory directions. For example, in the development of Transactional Clusters Theory the next steps are to integrate, connect and explain the concepts as a single entity. The basic theoretical structure is constructed but helping others see how that works as an entire system is not easy. It took consider effort to uncover and connect core tenets of a larger system.

What I'm doing is trying to discuss what its like to create exploratory theories as they relate to the development of economic systems. I'm not using a traditional economists perspective but more holistic perspective that relies on a number of different lenses to understand an economic system. It is this process that I can share with others for greater understanding.

1. Delta County Data: I have some data on Delta County that was collected just prior to COVID. It isn't a lot of information and on top of that it was when our economy looked different. However, I want to see if there is anything important in there and share it with readers. It may be of help to someone and it likely will highlight a few things that might be changes or improved. If I would have more participants I likely would have had stronger surety of the value of the information. 

2. Integrate, Connect, and Explain:  While the basic structure has been constructed it isn't connected together well into an integrated whole that others would understand. Thus, I'm going to re-write, adjust, and clarify where needed. I will highlight some of the gaps that are there just to see what I might understand but would be hard to explain. To create a cohesive theory I will need to think of it as a total system and explain how each of the pieces connect together to create a more parsimonious concept.

3. The Precipice of Physical and Digital Economy: The precipice of where the physical and digital economy connect is within the individual transactions and how people use the tools available to them. Not sure if there is a way to explain it but I thought about a second study just on the specific transactions within a number of clustered businesses. That would be hard to pull off unless such businesses would be interested in understanding their interconnectedness. That would mean going into the choices being made (i.e. the fundamentals of economy and neuroscience) to determine choice, lines of development, and innovative outputs under certain transaction combinations.  To gain business support the theory might need to be more clearly written and have a PPT to make it valuable to business. 

Developing research takes time and is messy. While it may move through some very broad steps at the end of the day researchers must explore any avenues that appear to have benefit. In this case it worked out because some were relevant. Theory development is up and down, right and left, because it is exploration from one core concept to other connected ideas that may be relevant. 

Live Coverage AP Calls Biden Winner-Now is the Time to Capitalize on Bi-Partisanship

Its important to keep up on the political news to see what policies are likely to come next.  Having a Republican White house and a Republican Senate has opportunities to get a lot of things done while having a Democrat in the White House and a Republican Senate means extreme changes will be mitigated but wider ranging policies can be reached if both sides decide to work together. In a split power outcome bi-partisan work is going to be very important in sowing the nation closer together and ensuring we have a shared vision of our country and its people. At present we can see what happens in the near future. Our next president will be important for the nation no matter who wins or looses. It is a cultural shift as much as a presidential shift.

Job Market Improves November 6th 2020-Hospitality and Leisure

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics we have some good news on the job market. According to the press release....

"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 638,000 in October, and the unemployment rate declined to 6.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In October, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction. Employment in government declined (1)"

When we look a little deeper we find that hospitality and leisure made up much of the gains. Technology also had some advantages. That might mean we are opening back up the economy and we are adapting with more online/virtual needs. Experts are likely to know more. 

Some of this gain also seems to parallels spread in COVID. Its a social disease so this makes sense. Those sectors and their growth/decline is based in what policies we put forward. I don't think we will truly close our economy again but we may instill policies that seem to make sense in limiting long-term health risks. 

Helping Students Use Time Management in College and Life

 Students sometimes have a hard time managing their life and school loads. Those not being born in the lap of luxury must often work, take care of other responsibilities, manage their own lives and continue to go to school. I know this because I was a full time doctoral student and work 50+ hours a week while taking care of a family. You can get pulled in every direction! 

There are some helpful things to keep in mind if you want to better manage. I suspect many of these are likely to apply to the business world where people have multiple projects going on. Where one might be delegate to save time the other might be delegate to save time and groom others. 

Here are a few things I learned from "busting my hump" on education and life. 

1. Perception of time is misleading. There is only so much you can complete and do within a day. Try not to do too much and don't have expectations things get done quickly. If you think your paper or project is going to take 3 days....go ahead and start 6 days early. 

2. Not All things are Important: Not all things are important. Some are just exercises in wasted time while others have real importance and meaning. If a task doesn't seem particularly important you may want to give up. 

3. Delegate Work: If your in a family unit and you have a lot going on you can ask others to take over some of the errands, chores, etc... Try not to be a selfish person as just because you like to make yourself busy doesn't mean you should. 

4. Stay Focused in Now: The problem with lists and planning is that they also remind you of all the things you have to do. Focus on the task in front of you and keep your energy in the present. Your going to feel better about that list. 

5. Keep in Perspective: We only have one life to live and its important to get things done. Yet at the end of the day we are all going back to the same place. Thus, keep frustration and set backs in perspective of one's life. 

Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Discusses Economy

 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell discusses the economy. Real GDP rose significantly over the past quarter and its expected to slow a little. One of the explanations he offered was because people are going back to work. That is very true and the economy is powering up. Of course services are low because they rely on socializing and that is impacting the ability to effectively engage the economy. 

He also went on to discuss a slightly less outlook for 4Q of 2020 and the need for stimulus. I'm a believer in trying new things. Stimulus through the hands of others made sense from a consumer spending standpoint but I think this one might be better to be focused on sparking development in our dilapidated cities and drawing back international investment (short versus long tail benefits)  

The U.S. has the opportunity to push its economy forward with digital transformation and the benefits that come from increased transference of knowledge. Because much of the world is going online it would make sense to develop our Digital GDP capacity and at the same time increase manufacturing. That will require a level of coordination between local, state, and federal governments. 

This isn't only about economics. This is about reorienting global networks and shifting the supply chains in the big data world of those networks back to cities that still have market relevance and can improve the position of diverse and ethnic millennial workers. There are no gifts in such a plan because this is about investment development that helps bring manufacturing/technology back and also create opportunities for for the young to compete on the global market. 

Traits of High Performing Genius Students in Online Education

 One of the things that educators look for is those high performing students that were currently undiscovered. This occurs because our job is to teach others and in turn when we come across an exceptional performer we may want to better understand thinking patterns and in turn develop strategies for encouraging this population but also helping others be more creative. Online education helps us better understand how to enrich this population for national development.

The essential differences between Genius and common thinking are not as wide and large as we think they are. Instead, they are more of a way of thinking. How highly gifted students think is on a completely different track and line than other people based on thinking strategies that come to more accurate conclusions. 

According to the article "For a Genius Brain, Focus on How to Think, Instead of What to Think". They are able to reach across different neural networks that allow them to connect ideas together in a more creative way. They are able to activate multiple areas of their brain to solve problems. 

For example, genius can utilize multiple mental networks such as The Default Mode, The Salience Network and the Executive Control Network. Their brains and thinking patterns are pliable. This juxtaposition between things that are dissimilar (i.e. Leonardo di Vinci made a connection between vibrations in water and the sound waves of the bell).  

Another difference is that while most people are only willing to spend a certain limited time on problems and gravitate toward pre-defined answers (Difference between an A student and a genius). Genius often think of these like mental puzzles and embrace the not so simple ideas that lead to insights. They can spend decades on an idea that would have long bored others.

They are out there in small percentages as a normal adaptation to our species. Other species likely have this small percentage adaptations that are also part of the process evolution. Most will never be found but online schools can help us start to think about the ability to go back and research high performance to see how they make decisions, think about topics and how they were graded. It would give you a pretty good model of how this trait works. Having online individualized education using artificial intelligence allows us to enrich the gifted quickly and effectively.