Showing posts with label economic growth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economic growth. Show all posts

Friday, August 29, 2014

GDP Rises and Consumer Confidence Recovers



The Bureau of Economic Analysis released optimistic data showing a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increase of 4.2% in the output of goods and services. The new numbers are a windfall compared to the previous 2.1% decline in the first quarter of 2014. The new release of information uses more accurate numbers than previous measurements which help the business community make investment decisions.

The new numbers show an increase in nonresidential fixed investments with smaller numbers in private inventory investment. Other factors influencing the higher numbers were exports, personal consumption expenditures, local government spending, and residential fixed investments. Confidence in the economy may be encouraging purchasing behaviors, state spending, and business investments.

Consumer confidence and consumer spending are associated in economic theory (Ludvigson, 2004). As consumers become more confident about their employment prospects and ability to earn a living wage they will naturally spend more of their hard earned capital on products that improve GDP. The same psychological principles apply to business and government.

We can see this operate in the decline and growth cycles of consumer spending and consumer confidence. Consumer spending dipped .1% in July after rising .4% in June (1). Despite the dip, consumer confidence is rising and future estimates may adjust consumer spending upwards. The polling company GfK showed that despite a consumer confidence decline of -2 in July the numbers moved up to +1 in August (2).

Economic data rests on a battery of measurements to determine future market prospects. If the consumer confidence and consumer spending association is correct we should see an increase in consumer spending numbers for August. A slow beginning to 3Q doesn’t necessarily mean it is going to end slowly as housing and investments recover to support future GDP growth. As with all projections, confounding variables impact the final results. Time is the greatest predictor.


Ludvigson, S. (2004). Consumer confidence and consumer spending. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18 (2).

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Economic Growth through Societal Motivation





Economic engines are fostered through the patterns of human development and the creation of an environment that allows them to realize their fullest potential on the market. The economic system should encourage exploratory entrepreneurial behavior that leads to tangible rewards for societal members to ensure momentum continues to thrust forward. The same mechanics that apply to organizational motivation also apply to national motivation as each member determines whether or not they will engage the market with their skills and abilities. 

The book Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty outlines how wealth is increasingly accumulating into fewer and fewer hands thereby retarding the financial growth of the middle class. Wealth distribution tied directly to performance helps to encourage greater levels of motivation and innovative ideation.  Higher performance should be encouraged throughout the layers of society to have the highest development of the economic system. 

Expectancy-Value Theory:  People will determine how much effort they are going to put forward to obtain goals. If the system doesn’t offer these rewards or if people are effectively blocked due to issues such as racism, religious bigotry, sexism, nepotism, corruption, or improper wealth allocation national motivation will decline. 

Path-Goal Theory: It is not enough to offer the rewards without offering the right rewards for the right kinds of activities. Employees that work hard, develop new products, and create better ways of conducting business have a right to increased income. The rewards must match the path to ensure the highest amount of effort.

Cultural Reward Systems: Each culture has their own embedded reward systems that encourages higher levels of motivation within that particular cultural context (Rosenblatt, 2010). Once the culture is set it will change the vantage points of societal members and influence what actions will lead to effective rewards that adjusts social intelligence and thinking. 

Skill Set Creation: To think, build, and produce requires the motivation to learn and develop. The system must reward employees who successfully complete training, obtain certificates, graduate with degrees, and improve their earning potential in some way. The closer learning is associated to current societal needs the higher the alignment of effort and skill. 

Ideation to Production: When good ideas are ignored only because they didn’t come from the “right” person with the “right” social connections the system suffers as less people learn to open their ideas to unjust criticism. Development of a nation requires the ability to explore various types of ideas from multiple sectors of society. 

Treaties and Agreements: Opportunities are based on the ability to sell products on the global market that obtain rewards for societal members. The types of agreements developed for trade and information sharing will determine the potential opportunities generated. The agreements influence the productive structure of a nation.

Wealth allocation should impact all segments of society to be effective. Developing a stronger society requires all-hands-on-deck through offering appropriate rewards, effective paths that help the greatest amount of people, the skill-set to produce, open-minded enough to accept new ideas, and having the international agreements in place to develop new opportunities.

The way the system operates and develops has a natural impact on the methodologies people use to make decisions. Every person uses judgments to determine whether or not additional effort will lead to increased rewards or other valued benefits. A lifetime of rewards, punishments, successes, and failures will determine the overall way in which a people think and becomes embedded into a nation’s culture. 

It is the entire system and its impact on the population that will determine whether or not a nation will succeed or decline or suffer the fate of history. Each member is surrounded by the factors of their environment and the way in which other people think that creates social perception as encased in culture. It is this cultural perception matched with appropriately pathways to success and tangible rewards that will determine if the system has the capacity to continue to grow in the future. 

Piketty, T. (2014). Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Harvard University Press: Cambridge, MA. ISBN 9780674430006

Rosenblatt, V. (2010). Social axioms, values and reward allocation across cultures. Academy of Management Annual Meeting Proceedings.

Sunday, August 3, 2014

Policy and Infrastructure Improves National Growth



The development of nations occurs on a constant basis. The policies leaders put in place have a huge impact on the success of any nation and can have long-lasting impacts. A paper by Carmignani & Chowdhury (2010) discusses how specific and broad focus impacts growth. They elaborate on four scenarios of development and the outcomes of each. 

Positive Growth and Decreasing Inequality: Occurs when there is growth in the economy but greater mobility of the classes. 

Positive Growth and Increasing Inequality: Occurs when there is growth in the economy but that growth impacts one class over another. 

Negative Growth and Decreasing Inequality: Occurs when growth is negative but there is greater mobility among the classes. 

Negative Growth and Inequality: Occurs when growth is negative but it impacts one class over another. 

The authors found through their analysis that strong policies and infrastructure improvements help create the right opportunities for a positive growth and decreasing inequality situation. Countries are not limited by their geographical locations, resources, or population. Any country can improve their standing by having the right policies and infrastructure.

Policies have legal implications for businesses and help create an environment for growth. The way in which companies structure, operate and develop are based in part on how they work within particular environments. Policies should focus on business and employment growth and ensure that the environment allows for proper wealth distribution and class mobility. 

Likewise, the infrastructure of a nation naturally can impact the success of business within a particular environment. Proper infrastructure will help ensure that products move quickly, information is transferred appropriately, and money moves easily. Infrastructure encourages growth from the foundations of an economy.

Carmignani, F. & Chowdhury, A. (2011). Four scenarios of development and the role of economic policy. Journal of Developmental Studies, 47 (3).

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Developing Business Education for Economic Growth



Education has an important role in developing people and nations to higher levels of performance. Business education is a fundamental component of fostering stronger economic performance. A paper by Ugwuog, et. al. (2013) explores how education is beneficial for national development and offers a few tips for colleges to improve upon their teaching activities. 

In general terms, education can be broadly defined as acquiring the physical and social skills needed to function within their birth society. The type of education depends on the society in which one exists. In ancient times this may have occurred informally under a tree while in modern times it could include online classrooms.

Because education improves upon people’s abilities it is considered an investment. The central place of education is to recognize its capital investment in people (Francis & Hezel, 1974). An investment may improve performance but also raise costs which makes strong business curriculum advantageous. 

Business education is even more important in helping individuals find methods of earning income while furthering economic activity. The type of programs can include certificates, skilled trades, and applied management. To continue economic growth developed nations are focusing more heavily on the quality of education. 

The author argues that there are some significant problems in some business colleges. Each college can adjust their methods to raise quality. To encourage the development of skills schools should:

-Avoid hiring unqualified teachers
-Remove obsolete technologies
-Use more computer and technology learning
-Avoid large classes
-Fund programs adequately

 Francis, X. & Hezel, S.(1974). Recent theories of the relationship between education and development. http://micsem.org/articles/education/rectheor.htm

Ugwuogo, C. (2013). Business education and national development: issues and challenges. Journal of Educational and Social Research, suppl. Special Issue, 3 (4).  

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