Monday, May 29, 2023

Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) Focuses on Supply Chains

The last few years have 
brought up a number of 
supply chain issues.
Supply chains are important and that comes from the development of treaties, agreements, and other understandings of how to conduct business. With the many different supply chain issues that have arisen over the past few years there is no wonder there is an attempt to improve these pathways. There will be a level of coordination among a number of nations to help improve access to certain resources for all of them.

Consider that manufacturing and nation building requires a level of consistent and steady supplies. Geopolitical issues, COVID, and canal blockage have taught us that certain materials and supplies might better be secured through more manageable networks. (I wrote a few pieces a while ago Adaptive Supply Chains, Clusters and Networks, Supply Chain IntegrationDC Exports)

You may also be interested in the purposes of supply chain enhancements....

The White House states "..revitalize U.S. manufacturing, facilitating the steady supply of the materials, components, and inputs that U.S. companies rely on to compete effectively on the world stage."(Department of Commerce, 2023, para 5)  

Read Substantial Conclusion of Negotiations on Landmark IPEF Supply Chain Agreement

The report further goes on to say the activities of the IPEF are in line with future industry investments, "$400 billion of new private sector investment in major manufacturing projects in sectors like clean energy, semiconductor fabrication, and biotechnology, since President Biden took office. This has resulted in nearly 800,000 new manufacturing jobs and the most robust manufacturing growth since the 1950s."(US Dept. of Commerce, 2023, para 17).

Supply chains can impact our businesses and the competitive position of those businesses. Furthermore, improved supply chains develop resource obtainment and overall adaptability to keep those supply chains functionable. We have learned that disruptions create economic chaos. As an additional point, when supply chains become efficient they also impact the root costs of other aspects of the economy. Export infrastructure is fundamental to strong supply chains.

 IPEF Met in Detroit to discuss to discuss Pillars I, III, IV. You may read more about the three pillars in Press Statement for the Trade Pillar, Clean Economy Pillar, and Fair Economy Pillar (Department of Commerce, 2023).

Pillar I (Trade)

Pillar III (Clean Economy)

Pillar IV (Fair Economy)

Department of Commerce, (May 27th, 2023). Substantial Conclusion of Negotiations on Landmark IPEF Supply Chain Agreement. [Press Release]. https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2023/05/substantial-conclusion-negotiations-landmark-ipef-supply-chain

Department of Commerce (May 27th, 2023). Press Statement for the Trade Pillar, Clean Economy Pillar, and Fair Economy Pillar. [Press Release] https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2023/05/press-statement-trade-pillar-clean-economy-pillar-and-fair-economy

Russia and Belarus Giving Away Nukes: How the Business Climate Changes

As we think about the supply chain interruptions that have occurred the past few years we begin to see this split continue to grow around geopolitical issues. Russia has transferred nuclear weapons to Belarus and that is a sign of escalation. As expected, it is condemned. The business climate will change because of these escalatory situations that create new business risks. For the most part, this is expected.

Personally, I think we should be reducing these nuclear stocks across the globe. Spreading them out to other countries creates inherent risks for management. The article below indicates that these weapons are being traded for loyalty (At least that is what I understand.). Its a concerning gesture and if life has taught man anything loyalty that is bought is fleeting. 

It looks like an unwarranted and political based escalation because it is Russia that invaded Ukraine and not the other way around. Everyone seems to have respected Russian territory thus far so there is no threat of this magnitude to justify nuclear dissemination. Perhaps this conflict creates an excuse to redraw the red curtain. 

We as American people will need to think about our competitive capacity and make the changes needed to ensure we maintain a top advanced position. It is more about defensive capability and economic health. We maximize our options when we are in our most competitive state. Whether these situations eventually subside or not, it makes sense to get involved in self-growth.

What kind of business impact might we expect?

1. Supply chain issues between pro communism and pro capitalism.

2. Data theft and hacking will increase.

3. As U.S. adjusts we might see industry strategy changes.

4. Some materials might be more difficult to get forcing either new product designs and/or new mineral sourcing.

5. Defense industry will get a boost. That would include suppliers.

6. In the U.S. we probably would see more collaboration as more important issues take precedence. 

7. Some investment adjustments are likely to occur.

When these things happen and it appears hazardous then it is expected nations will become concerned and adjust.

A scary article....

Lukashenko offers nuclear weapons to nations willing ‘to join the Union State of Russia and Belarus’


Memorial Day 2023

Today is a day of remembrance. We went through a lot of sacrifices as a nation and lost a lot to have those freedoms. Today, I'm going to attend one of the memorial services. 

Sunday, May 28, 2023

Tentative Debt Agreement Obtained for U.S. Government Funding and Debt

This is good news. That doesn't mean that we don't have a problem and more work to do to balance the budget but a big hurdle in stability was found. Not everyone is going to be happy but its a start. 

Flowers and Dolphins from Shelter Island

There are few things in life that are as beautiful as flower and exciting as watching dolphins jumping out of the water. While we seem to get into the bustle of things quickly sometimes it is beneficial to start one's day with a little of the simple pleasures of life. 




Defrauding Research Funding: electromagnetic analysis scientists learn values the hard way!

Ethics in science is very important because we want our resources being used for exactly what they are expected to be used for. It is important to remember that fraud and cheating end up costing the rest of society some serious money. Those are resources that can be used in other places to solve other national problems. Researchers should always seek to maintain a higher standard of integrity. 

Grants are important for funding new innovative research and it is necessary to have some level of oversight to ensure the money is being spent accurately. What I find interesting about this is that despite their high education it didn't seem to impact their values. I wonder how they thought at some point someone isn't going to ask about these expenses. 

While, depending on study design and department need, there could be use for things like cameras or a other few pieces of equipment I would doubt the private hunting club would make that list. 

"$200,000 in personal expenses on Fraley’s PCard, including, two four-wheelers and a trailer, two Sony 52-inch flat-screen televisions, Apple computers, iPads, OtterBox protective cases, iPods, Kindle E-readers, Leica and Nikon digital cameras, video cameras, a mini micro pinhole video camcorder pen, a night vision monocular, two pairs of binoculars, Bose headphones, a 3D printer, sports watches with heart-rate monitors, sunglasses, materials used to perform private consulting contracts, computer monitors and solar panels for a private hunting club, a personal video network for home use, and an uninterruptible power supply for a tennis ball machine."

When I have worked with grants typically you would be required to submit budget updates and outline many of these expenses prior to approval. However, in normal large research grants you may have other expenses that come up that are not initially planned so cash equivalent resources are often needed. Stealing on this level would seem sort of obvious you are going to get caught. 

Notice they also engaged in violation of the consulting policy and used private labs for personal gain. It appears they were on a roll with the self enrichment. Either way, its a good catch.

Former chief scientist for GTRI pleads guilty to conspiring to defraud Georgia Tech and the CIA

Saturday, May 27, 2023

Morgan Stanley Predicts Soft Landing Economy 2023 (A Few Thoughts....)


Morgan Stanley came out with a few insights this year. A Soft Landing for the U.S. Economy?

Key Takeaways:
  • Morgan Stanley Research believes the U.S economy can achieve a “soft landing,” which means slowing economic growth while avoiding a recession. 
  • The U.S. housing cycle, income and spending trends, a stable labor market and receding inflation point to a positive outcome. 
  • However, banking-sector turmoil and a resulting credit squeeze still pose some recession risk.

A few thoughts.....

This is year is interesting because we are a few years past COVID but about at the point where companies have implemented long-term strategies post-Pandemic that include a more online Digital Era approach. Unemployment is low, interest is high but declining, investment market is rising, and the risk of recession is declining. My biggest focus is whether there will be a growth spurt toward the end of 23' and beginning of 24'. There was an economic boon after COVID which would indicate the theory was sort of correct on that front but now it is nearly 3 years later so that is a different story. A small recession might be expected but unless something odd happens we should see some growth. If lucky significant growth.

The other question that I keep in the back of my head is whether or not we are actually going through an economic platform shift?  (I don't know, its possible just like the printing press) If so we would have a fast ramp up of technology and innovation as fundamentals tied to new infrastructure coming online (i.e. Digital Era Renaissance. 2023/4 would be sort of where we see whole new lines of technology come out. Its not immediate but over a short period of time.). There is some indication of this in the increase in AI, EV. online education, fiber optics, cell phones, semiconductors, etc... Just like how the Internet produced significant wealth, the digital era will better blend these two planes of commerce to create faster innovation (i.e. small electric commuter carts, stronger space travel with new batteries, or new fuels. I still like the idea of electric molectular solar propulsion.  I'm being a little silly about it. Sorry. 😓 )

The other things that might be of interest is how the numbers act under different economic assumptions of the digital versus physical world assumptions of the Industrial Era. They use different assumptions and therefore there are going to be adjustments in how these numbers represent digital items versus physical items. Basically, many of these theories would need to be tweaked and adjusted as well as the development of whole new economic theories tied to the age. The theories must change when technology creates new human behavioral patterns of buying, interacting, and engage with the environment. (I'm sorry I'm a little out there in left field but who knows what we find. Most theories are only partially correct. That is why we debate them.)

How Law Enforcement Can Enhance or Detract From an Economic Development (Cluster)?

Clusters will likely be an important part of national growth going forward as they are tools to spur national innovation. Clusters can be seen as an interconnected network of different types of activities/transactions where they influence, enhance, or detract from each other to create a ripe economic environment for innovation and growth. Ensuring each of the inputs is functioning well is helpful for the health of the whole system which must maximize the return on the resource expenditures.

Where there is alignment between elements we are likely to see improvement in economic performance and outcomes through equilibrium/optimization/synergy. Law enforcement, justice systems, etc. are part of that discussion because they lay at the institutional foundations (societal-institution assumptions/contracts) that allow commerce to occur in relative safety and security (i.e. physical and economic existence. One might relate them to life & liberty. ).

First let us look at this very informative but slightly older article posted by Harvard that discusses some of the fundamentals of cluster lines of scientific development. Clusters and Economic Policy: Aligning Public Policy with the New Economics of Competition 

(Let me say I found an excellent discussion and analysis of economic clusters that predates mine by like 5 years or something. I'm curious going forward as I finish my how similar/different they are. There is a good chance that I likely read some of this work at some point and integrated it into my own. However, there are likely going to be aspects that will be unique so that will be interesting.

Positive Contributions of Policing:

Strong policing that has societal trust and adapts upward in performance will set the foundations for growth. For example, if you have lots of ordinance issues and blight that detracts from visitors, the local law enforcement can enforce codes and zoning restrictions in a way that has a positive effect on economic activities. The same can be said for drug use, theft, violence and other types of behaviors. You will see in this study that crime has an impact on the local economy and damages local credit worthiness. We might further conclusion that effective policing reduces crime and improves the economic underpinnings. Crime and credit: The empirical study of how crime affects credit ratings of large U.S. cities

The Negative Contributions of Poor Policing

When there are elements that are in misalignment between law enforcement and society there will be consequences. The Economics Policing discusses funding for departments and some of the challenges of how relying on ticketing often focuses more on minorities when compared to others. The same discriminatory behavioral multiplier would likely exist in clanship and/or hyper political-extremist environments where some are given benefits not available to everyone (i.e. two systems of justice where the application of law may be different. For example, providing constructive criticism of inappropriate behaviors could lead to violations of freedom of speech through the use of 3rd world intimidation tactics. Power over dynamics might be a more likely tool when dealing with people of religious minorities so as to create violations of freedom of religion. The two systems are based not on the actual laws, or the intent of law, but on the application of law as a symptom of biased filtered processes that quickly come to erroneous conclusions. A single officer could be addressed through training and/or removal but a departmental default would likely need an overhaul with greater outside oversight.)

It would be fair to say that any intentional or unintentional discriminatory multiplier would likely have an adverse impact on local relationships and economic outcomes (This is one argument of potential likelihood not a justification. There are studies that show various aspects of that problem. One might denote this in a future formula as DM, or something similar, that can be measured and then determine to what extent that multiplier impacts decision making. A little like 'Fairness, Equality, and Power in Algorithmic Decision Making'). 

Thinking About What It Means

Policing can be a positive or a negative contributor to the economy (In my case I'm looking at clusters). Where it is done well it will likely improve the economic environment by ensuring the safety and security that allows commerce to function unimpeded. That will include fair and impartial treatment of our fellow citizens. Where it has adversarial relationships it might become less functional and/or less aligned to the needs of the greater society and thus incur economic penalties. A closed system without community engagement and/or without trust leading to lower economic activity (The case for that isn't really built here, but its the possibility.) We might say that human capital development relies on positive societal engagement and environmental prompting for performance. Policing can have a positive or negative impact on the environment based on their ability to meet the needs of society and the greater economic system.

(A couple of quick observations I have seen thus far. Policing that is highly engaged in community activities and maintains high standards seems to have more trust levels. I have seen in at least one case where policing becomes more squad like with its own rules and codes it creates barriers with the public. At the same time, there may be other issues with clannism and racial-religious undertones to behaviors and that can cause significant derailment in decision making. Thus, stronger department policies and redesigning aspects of the system may be helpful. The ultimate issue is to what? For this we should look to locations where policing has high community trust and performance. Sometimes we have to adjust the metrics. Briefly I think increased transparency/independent review of complaints might be helpful as well as greater training and diversity of recruitment. There is a lot lot more to this so we can discuss in the future.)

(I have a disclaimer here. I have a few reasons why I'm writing about this. Anytime we can improve a system, especially an area that has received significant concerns, we should set upon that path to be proactive. Also, there are beneficiaries and victims to good and bad policing. I have seen police do wonderful things and I have seen them mock our values and give a free pass to dangerous behaviors. So we want to create systems that encourages positive growth in a way that raises up good officers and curbs poor behaviors. To improve a system we should think about its wider influence in our society and our long term prospects. It is only one factor out of many factors that influence a successful nation. It is an important factor so we should consider any tweaks, adjustments or improvements when they appear to be beneficial. I support shared sense of direction and universal conception of democracy. I'm a light right Republican, not a politician, but certainly think working with diverse perspectives from major political perspectives is helpful to national development. i.e. the purpose of the blog. Probably not important in the grand scheme of things. 🤔🤷‍♂️)


Fitness, Lifestyle and the eBike

The guy putting my seat and handlebars
 on nice place in OB
Not everything on this blog is going to be hard and heavy. We can talk about fitness because we do have issues with health and ensuring we have a healthy population. Likewise, our public servants and our military need new recruits that are in good physical condition. Fitness and nutrition lead to greater overall health (I can also say it is another factor to human capital development but let us save that for another date.)

Fitness can come from changing one's life to include new activities. For example, I used to rent a car while traveling to my boat but then realized that because of the typically nice whether and the many pathways on the coast, that an eBike makes sense. Considering the cheapest car I can rent is $450 not including gas, I bought my eBike for $430 and put an additional $100 into the seat and handlebars (It came with the worlds worst seat.)

Instead of driving I ride my bike so I'm improving my fitness and saving money each time I come out from car rentals. There are a few drawbacks if you need to go far but this can be augmented by hitching a ride with someone. If you need to go somewhere far for a little I think you would want to rent and put the mileage on there as well. Considering the cost of an additional car, insurance, parking, maintenance overall the eBike is the better deal.

I think a lot more cities are going to switch to electrical small vehicles and bikes as a way to remove congestion and help the environment. Smaller roads may also be needed. Longer distances will still require access to highways and use of cars but ultimately that is something that can be fixed in the future as well. 

Some benefits in this case of the eBike....

-Significantly less cost

-Greater health

-Help environment

-Greater awareness of local activities

-Simplifying of life.

Some detractors I found from the eBike....

-Sucks when its cold or rainy.

-Long distance is impossible.

-Longer commute times.

-Risks from drivers.

These guys/gals are motivated because with an eBike you just click the button if your tired......

Friday, May 26, 2023

Escanaba City Council Regular Meeting (May 18, 2023): OPRA, Taxes, Crusin, and Trust!

 Shields, on the River Tyne, for The Rivers of England, 
1823 J.M.W. Turner
While the contents of discussion were not particularly exciting an observation in governance came forward as it relates to trust and the ability to accomplish certain goals and efforts. You should keep in mind that within the last few years the local area has procured a $1+billion Billerud investment, $200 Million infrastructure improvement, increase in tourism (boats, buses, marina), new hotel development, and other interests. 

(If it keeps going it could find itself as a model city able to beat the market by balancing the various industry influences in a way in which they interact as a functioning cluster. i.e. meaning that industry, tourism, micromanufacturing, retail, events, lifestyle, etc are enhancing each other and leading to increased revenue and resources. I mean theoretically under optimal conditions and adaptations. There is a increased interest in tech hubs and other such innovative locations. Escanaba is a microcosm with almost all the right elements and could be a good candidate to apply for such programs. It relates to a transactional theory I'm working on. Keep in mind the MI govt. is also seeking to raise population among certain types of high demand workers. There are other emerging market factors where such hubs may make good sense. This is especially more likely to be true in low population areas that may attract a younger more nature conscious group. )

What we will often find between different government entities is differences in trust levels and its impact on engagement. For example, in this case we have relatively high trust levels even on discussions related to budgets. It doesn't mean everyone likes taxes or that there are no problems, but the general sentiment is that the city administration has their best interest in mind. 

As a casual observation, higher levels of trust have less conflict then entities in the same area that have lower levels of trust and thus more conflictual engagement. You may read Transparency and Trust in Government. Evidence from a Survey Experiment (Some of the formulas are cool)

Notes:

I cut and past some of the notes because they are already in the May 18/2023 Agenda but I found them to be interesting. I try and be as accurate as possible.

-17.4 mils on budget. Thursday, May 25, 2023, for the Second Reading, Public Hearing, and Adoption.

-Abating preferential rate for short period of time.  "Obsolete Properties Rehabilitation Act (OPRA) (PA 146, 2000) which allows for partial exemption of property taxes for a specified period of time so that certain types of property improvements can be made. The intent of the legislation is to encourage rehabilitation of underutilized or decaying commercial or commercial/residential properties in certain designated communities" (Anytime you can attract investment and fix up properties it is important and beneficial for tax generation in the long run, aesthetic appeal, and attracts future investments.)

  • "Lake Effect Distillery, LLC, owner of 723 Ludington Street, has requested to be enrolled in the Obsolete Properties Rehabilitation Act (OPRA) (PA 146, 2000) which allows for partial exemption of property taxes for a specified period of time so that certain types of property improvements can be made."

-You can read the agenda for a number of differences ordinances and dates and public hearing. 

-"The Krusin Klassic Car Club is requesting City Council approval to use Ludington Park and Ludington Street on June 2, 2023, from 6:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m., for their annual "Krusin Klassics Fun Run". "

-I like their use of the Agenda and the way it is put together as I don't need to take notes and it is easy to follow. I cut and paste a few things I thought were interesting.

-"Closed Session – Discussion of Labor Contracts – HR Director/Treasurer. Explanation: Administration is requesting Council go into a closed session to consider material exempt from discussion or disclosure by statute under MCL 15.268(c), identified as negotiation of a collective bargaining agreement(s)." (I like negotiations and watching them unfold. Looks like this one was in closed session.)

-Some of the cruise members said they like the reception, like the town and loved the lakefront (Come on vacationers and investors....this is a great town to live and be part of!)

Thursday, May 25, 2023

G7 Meeting (May 20th, 2023): Supply Chains, Technology, Open Markets

The G7 recently met and discussed building resilient supply chains and general support for free markets. Important topics were brought up such as market manipulation and unfair competitive practices. There has been some members concerned about the supply chain issues stemming from geopolitical problems and market manipulation. Thus, the meeting appears to have had the effect of creating some general alignment on global concerns that will likely lead to further discussion/analysis of these concerns at a later date (i.e. the theme of discussion)

(As a quick note. Supply chains are important because they determine the flow of information and goods. They are not just supply chains but also mechanisms of influence. Thus, having open markets allows various factors of influence to take place that seeks to create the economic business environment.)

Some of the technology based items that are being focused on are critical minerals, semiconductors and batteries. (These are products in high demand so adjustment in supply chains are occurring based on changes in market demand and changes in the world geo-political environment.  You may be interested in the YouTube video below as it discusses infrastructure projects.)

Technology will become a bigger part of that open market discussion in future meetings. An interesting UNCTAD report called 'Innovation and Technology, 2021' highlights the speed of technology adaptation so that is a big part of the economic environment.. $350 billion to 3.2 Trillion by 2025. (I wonder where we are right now in terms of numbers? 🤔 This is why I say that COVID brought forward the possibility of a Digital Economy 10 years faster then would otherwise be expected. Not that there is an expectation but that its a natural development off of the Industrial Era. Hard Infrastructure pairing with more Digital Infrastructure. It creates whole new market dynamics based in economic fundamental shifts that lead to INNOVATION.)

You will also notice below a chart that discusses value added and employment sustained by foreign demand. It supports the idea that manufacturing is important for employment, wages, and economic growth. Open markets can be helpful when you are competitive and can value add items and brands with increasing value (digital, intellectual, labor, etc.). You can read more about that in OECD 'Why Open Markets Matter'.

*There was also a discussion on inclusion and that is important from a supply chain development standpoint but it was a little outside the scope of this article/post.



Wednesday, May 24, 2023

Delta County Board of Commissioners Meeting (5/16/2023) Concerns, Annexation, Tourism Dignitaries and Ethics!

Cicero (Roman senator, 106-43 BCE) 
Fresco by Cesare Maccari (1840-1919 CE).
Representation of change..
There was a lot of activity within this meeting spanning the spectrum from tourism to finance. Harder numbers were thrown around and people seemed upset about the annexation. Somewhere in the process I suspect they felt like their concerns were not being addressed fully. They brought forward their questions and issues and it appears there was some adjustment on the commission side.  It furthermore seems that the strategy of bringing forward information helps in creating change organically through public discussion. 

Key point: Democracy is a process of conversation.

Key point: Democracy is a process of making decisions based on that conversation.

Key point: Active interest in government and avenues of discussing issues publicly improves democratic outcomes (i.e. the need to protect freedom of speech as a mechanism of growth).

Democracy is a process of conversation because it is derived from a social behaviors (The design of society determines who is allowed to be in the conversation. For example, a dictator uses power to be the decision maker, a theocracy uses religious people, a democracy seeks to use a more form of organic societal decision making. Positive change happens through conversation. i.e. freedom of speech is central to successful decision making. Stifle that and you stifle democracies core method.). We elect people we think are going to represent our best interests. Some do and some don't. (Its not specific here but in general to all elected officials). When they represent us well, we reelect them. When they don't, we don't reelect them (Accurate information is necessary to make those decisions.)

We then go through a discussion using various channels to define what we want as a people and a community. The more accurate (based in observational truth) and honest (based in professed truth) everyone is within the process, the faster a shared truth that guides a community (This is why I like to say, "Which side of truth/"truth" of an argument are you using?" The observed and the professed.). When there is missing information and/or misleading information it can end in costly derailment of decision making. (This is also why we should avoid rudeness and extreme ideological fringes because it limits conversation. It limits not only the proper expression of legitimate concerns but also the hearing of those concerns. Say something rude to someone and you realize they probably stopped listening to you. In general it is best to be polite but persistent.

There were some positive adaptations that occurred from my perspective (My perspective is limited but still probably valid at least as an observational data point). There appeared to be some walking back of initial courses of actions and one path that may have been emanant is now slowed for more thorough decision making (I think this is the case. Some experience in contract negotiations so I would gauge it this way). 

An example of this adaptation in local thinking is helpful. I think the people in general agree that the solar farm is one issue and the annexation is a separate issue. If it is a separate issue it becomes possible to use alternative courses of actions such development without splitting or annexing townships. i.e. shared tax and service agreements with an entity for a specified period (There are other options but they will likely be unpopular and in many cases impractical.)

Notes: I try and keep accurate notes but sometimes I make mistakes. If I say something inaccurate just post a message or let me know and I will review and fix. 

-Concerned that the people should decide annexation and not the board. 

-Someone talking about one of the commissioner was a thief. Called someone a criminal. Something about recall and bringing up old stuff. 

-A letter sent in with general criticisms.

-A lady wants to keep Escanaba Twp. Fire Department services. I think if the solar farm comes into the area they could just do a shared tax agreement and an agreement on services. There is no need to annex another area to complete this. 

-Go Paul N! Go Paul! Felt his son was misled and he would challenge the petition for many reasons such as the older names. Such a thing as drastic as annexation should have a vote. An option would be to move to Wells Twp as an Escanaba Twp. will not be able to stand alone. He would restart an organization. Paul is a local mover and shaker in the area and has knowledge of these things. (Combining Wells and Escanaba Twp with industries like Billerud would likely create a strong performing investment location with higher funded services. However, that is a long route and benefits and detractors would need to be analyzed. Its a secondary option if annexation occurs.)

-.32 min. There is an issue of administrative fees and bonuses brought up. Very specific $600K in fee. They are admin fees in exchange for office space. 1. What was the administrative feel? 2. Was it used for something else? 2022 Admin fee. $72K. Two transaction. First 35K from that went to an account for employee labeled "Incentive Pay for Employees". About 10K went to each of the district employees. 10% of profits were kept but is only added in 2023 contract and not in any other contract. One of the district. Another 18K bonuses leading to $33K in bonuses for one of the district employees.

-Tourism dignitaries came out. (This participation is a testimony to how the community wants to grow and how it would benefit from tourism. If we then add that to micro manufacturing tourism related businesses (i.e. golf clubs, snow shoes, etc.) we can improve tourism appeal, investment appeal downtown, and have started an export market. As businesses learn to collaborate on the export market they are able to better hedge the value of these small micro manufacturers by getting their products listed online and listed in other countries. When we think of the new housing development downtown we should be excited about the possibilities for the town.)

$120K donated by the Hannahville Tribe. (The Native Americans in the area are a big part of contributing to our community. This is also why I advocate for greater tribal participation with local leaders to coordinate how both communities can grow. Escanaba should be a modern 'smart city' where different types people are encouraged and welcomed to engage with each other.)

(On a side note I really like this tribe. They do a lot for people in the area. We should be closer people and work together to accomplish our goals. While I had some early memories with that tribe I now find myself in later years respecting their traditions more. The video below is from a different tribe but the Great Spirit gave all two legged beings a choice to walk forward or backward and there are consequences. Light or Dark is a choice. You can watch 'Hear my words'.  If you understand anthropology, archeology, psychology, business, history, philosophy, etc. there is a philosophical concept of a logic to life."

-Comm. wants to bring forward an attorney for procedures and rules. Not frivolous lawsuits related. This is about avoiding being sued. The insurance must still approve which attorney they would use. Comm mentioned that the attorney in question had looked into the annexation on his own because of interest in the county. The crowd didn't appear happy. There was discussion on getting the attorney up in the area. 

-On discussion of annexation the comm asked another with a potential conflict of interest to recuse himself from discussion. Ethics and conflict of interest policy. The comm in question indicated that he will not be in a defendants chair and that there has been no evidence brought forward.

-Ethics polity 1001. Appearance of influence or accepting thing of value. 1101 Not allowed any decision to be made in one's interesting in business and disclose any conflict of interest. Under conflict of interest policy where an employee of a county has personal interest in issues. Avoid appearance through full public disclosure. 

-Some commissioners feel that a commissioner with a potential conflict should be recused by Robert Ballot. 1862 Esc. Twp. was established. People are not aware of the annexation. Have signatures of people who don't want this. 2.5 mils more cost. House cost will rise for insurance because of Cornell difference. Esc Twp. Fire Depart. would lose out on revenue. 190 people want to have their name removed. 409 signatures needed, minus decease, opposed, don't live there, etc. it doesn't reach 20% of the residents. 530 people who oppose the annexation. 3.5 weeks. 

(One of the most respectful and honorable things you can do for your nation and your community is to volunteer. Patriotism isn't only about symbols it is also about action. These local firefighters train for free but put their lives at risk each and every time they get a phone page. They are the ones who respond during the snow, rain, blazing heat and while everyone is still sleeping. If you can't volunteer then encourage others, and if you can't do that find some other way to support our volunteers. What is it like to be a firefigher? From what I have seen this is one of the most trained and capable departments in the area.)

-No one should vote on an issue of in which they have a interest nor can they be stopped. 

-Commissioner says he wants to protect Delta County. He would like to see meeting of Esc. Twp. and Cornell and then both together. 51% of everyone would have to agree. Will receive application for annexation soon. 

-Michigan trust fund grant.135K total match. 500+K money is coming forward. I think that is the same as Michigan Natural Resource Trust Fund  They feel that right now they are going to scrape the project because its a lot of extra work. 

-USDA and Sheriff Dept. watch land. There are some service reimbursements. 

-Resignation in dispatch and need someone to refill the position. 

-Veterans Service Fund. Buying equipment and use of multi purpose garage.$78K requested.

-Open position from retirement in corrections. 

-Blight Elimination Grant $500K for reimbursement grant. You can read more about that grant HERE. Terrace Bay Work Group will conduct the site cleaning, state will pay but through DC.

-Discussion on addressing and personal comments. Special Delta County Conservation District Board of Directors June 21st 4-8pm in person voting Pioneer Trail Park. 

-Open Meetings Act. Purchasing Policy Sept. 21st 2021 rules and procedures were approved by commission. During park and recreation must be bid over 10K and it wasn't. It was brought up but ignored 2X publicly. Discussed rules that were not followed and posting requirements.

-Only a few showed up to elections on board. 

-Nov. meeting upset calling twp. board "Marxists" and "ignorance on steroids." Feels like there is a projection 

(I'm not going to share my opinion here as this is the opinion of the speaker. I think she was talking about projection. Harvard wrote something on the topic in An Experiment on Interpersonal Projection Bias. A misperception gap up to like 27%. I tried to find one sort of neutral because I like to trace back the meaning of things people sometimes say just to see where it came from. I failed Harvard's economics class one time. Put in a higher class then I should have taken and then did B+/A- but was spending grueling hours on it along with lots of other full-time work. Somewhere in the middle I dropped/abandoned the class. I only took a few classes for fun.)

-Commissioner discussed and promoted annexation at public meetings. This is why I like these things should be recorded just in case. Obligation to know how much is coming back and used within government. There are concerns. Wants revenue from parks back. 

-Appalled by what she sees. Mentions Tail Gunner Joe and refers to one of the Comms.

-Concerned about my political enemies are your political enemies. Said after hiring of new admin and then posted it again Craig Warpal Newsmaker. (I can't find it). Concerns of words on RINO, obstruction, Democrat, Liberal, etc... 

-Courthouse security concern. 

-Radio comment concerns on the new pro bono attorney rewriting policies of county and prayer in the organization. She feels that there is corruption if they are deciding issues beforehand. 

-Issues of attorney doing pro bono work and be on stand bye. Audio is cutting out because of loudness. Concerned that prosecuting attorney is being side stepped. Couldn't hear anything. Something about wife?

-One lady concerned about what is meant by non-denominational. She said that there are Muslims, Jews, Hindus in town and others who pay taxes.   'Socioeconomic Impact of Religious Freedom')

-The poet (I think its the poet) that says they may want to get the sound muffler. 

-One resident became concerned about some behaviors on social media and intimidation and harassment behaviors in the community (Do you know there are people out there who believe its ludicrous we could have social and physical intimidation for any reason? My personal opinion is if we can see it on the playground in our grade schools some of those kids grow up to do it in adult life.). Talks about seeing corruption and other things. Doesn't care about whether we get solar but how we get there to that decision.  Discussed recusal. No one should go into office for personal gain. Wants the 4 members to vote on annexation or solar panels after the recusal and if they can't then put it out for a vote. 

-One community member felt. I will just quote it, "Your Policy Sucks!"

 (Policies are generally the best place to start to look for potential issues. Lots of problems stem from either policies or not having mechanisms to enforce policies. Good policies and enforcement help any system avoid confusion and inappropriateness. Its not specific to here or anywhere else. I sort of found a funny video on a similar topic 'Back to School'. )

-Concern on ethics and firing of prior administrator. 

-2 years ago some comms discussing bullying. 

-Discussion on contracting with court security.

-One Comm apologized how he acted. Will support new admin (We may disagree with what happened but that doesn't necessarily mean that this admin has anything to do with it. It was an open opportunity it would be natural for people to apply.) A discussion on supporting veterans. Keeping track of veterans. Wants to ensure the ethics policy is sent to all commissioners. Also discusses his happiness that young people are getting involved (Don't underestimate our youth! They learn from us. Let us hope we are giving them helpful lessons.). New business Bay Veteran Clinic (I think this is the right one.). 90 minute session on solar panel questions. Process for answering public questions. (Its hard to answer right on the spot sometimes and sometimes questions are more emotional then logical. Actual questions should be answered either there, on a page/social media, and/or the next meeting. It helps to ensure that legitimate questions and concerns should have responses. It improves transparency and information.)

-Discusses how different states have rules as they relate to names and location, etc. of people who request.

-Comm states that they would need a meet with Esc. Twp and they would need Cornell Twp. and one with the county to complete the annexation. He said the twp. would then need to vote on it. (I think its possible to carve out a shared agreement on how to service and collect taxes on the location as a special exemption for industrial development. That way both twp. receive tax monies. There will be some costs that will need to go to fire departments and other services. This is kind of why I'm thinking about having a first responder fund that can be contributed to fund those expenditures.)

-Ethics complaints go through different people. Ethics board has three. Chair for Personnel Committee, County Chair, and Prosecutor. You can submit complaints to any of the three people. 

-Prayer is from 1861 Non-denominational. Includes everyone. The rules and ethics policies have been around since 1990. 

Monday, May 22, 2023

It is those who know how to grind that get things done. (Motivational Video)

I really like these motivational videos because they kind of get you pepped up with your morning coffee and walk/jog. I thought you might like it. Me, I just got in last night so I'm out grinding already this AM. No matter what you want out of life, your going to have to take steps for it. I accomplished most of my main goals so I reset a few bigger ones. Its the journey, not the goal, that is enticing. 

Sunday, May 21, 2023

What is the Difference Between Organizations/Institutions That Navigate Change Well and Those that Don't?

What  makes one organization or institution willing to change to meet new demands and other organizations won't change until there are serious market/public losses. Successful organizations typically comes down to adaptability but one must wonder what are the differences between those who adapt well to change and those that don't.  

The first point to consider is Albert Einstein's Quote , "Today’s problems cannot be solved with the same level of thinking that created them.”

People change and organizations change to meet new demands. Let us look at quality of leadership, customers focus, environmental pressure and resources. 

1. Quality of Leadership: If the leadership doesn't recognize the change and doesn't have the foresight to change, they will avoid making decisions in the long run and instead focus on short term gains more exclusively. In other words, they are task oriented with limited focus but don't solve the essential problem.

2. Customer Focus: If one has a specific customer in mind they will not change as long as that is their primary customer. Sometimes organizations are not aware their customer are different and they will begin to loose customers. If they are an institution they will have lower trust levels.

3. Environmental Pressure: Environmental pressure can force organizations to change or eventually move into misalignment where decline increases. Analyzing the long term strategy and mission are helpful.

4. Resources: A business or institution may not have the resources to change. In this case they have to borrow, sell, or do other things that put resources when they are needed. Sometimes they wait for a major calamity, competition or bankruptcy to change.

Whether we are talking about business or government institutions there are times when change will put them ahead of the curve or they may wait until after the curve. After the curve, thinking becomes more reactive and often leads to wholesale organizational disruption. Pre curve change have some risks but the rewards are high. The biggest point to be made here is that leadership quality, customer focus, environmental pressure, and available resources determine whether an organization can recognize the need for change and make that change happen. 

Saturday, May 20, 2023

Escanaba Back in the Day-Delft Theater


 

Risk of Default Rises, Need for U.S. Balanced Budget, the Need for Shared Goals

Deposits are lower and there is some risk that there is a pressure on banks with higher interest rates causing some banking pressure. Thus, we might expect more consolidations, reduced bank stocks, and perhaps a few defaults.  There are also some concerns about how to balance the budge, commercial banking activities and the general need to work toward shared goals. You may find the video and information below as helpful. 

If we look at the FRED data on commercial bank deposits and revolving credit there is a little concern. However, when you go to the actual chart you can move to a 5 year view and you will see we are still up in deposits overall. The revolving credit might be an issue because if you have a US default you will likely find credit defaults which causes a chain reaction. How far, we don't actually know. I would be interested in seeing some projections. 

This is the danger of politics. We know we have a debt/spending problem, we know we must compete internationally, so its intuitive we need to restructure and change to put resources where its going to create net positives (That is not against all social programs which if they use the right metrics some are likely net positives.). It does mean going through our different initiatives and programs and ensure we are cutting waste and we are improving their effectiveness around 4-5 main goals for the country. 

My opinion is do as much as you can, extend 6 months (or some months) and work on adjusting our finances for national success. Start with what we know we need to keep and then putting together bipartisan teams to look at each major government expenditure. We encourage mature politicians that want to work these issues out to be collaborators with the party across the isle for mutual growth. No room for staunch ideologies. Everyone must work together. 

Description: Kate Kelly, New York Times reporter, Larry McDonald, The Bear Trap Report founder, and CNBC's Leslie Picker discuss the latest comments from Janet Yellen on the banking crisis, the ongoing debt ceiling debate, and more.

Dr. Janet Yellen discusses risks of breakdown Yellen warns against a US default

These Federal Reserve Commercial Bank Deposits and Revolving Credit. You can gain more from FRED Economic Data Deposits, All Commercial Bank


Commercial Bank Deposits











Commercial Bank Revolve Credit.



Police Reform is Neither All Good Or All Bad! How do you feel about what I'm saying?

The clan based justice system exists and where it resides the laws become increasingly subjective in their application. I'm like many other Republicans in that I do not support extremism but I do know some that do (It is not necessarily party specific as it's not central to either Democrat or Republican ideology. Its an add on.). I encourage systems that can be improved to move along that line of improvement. 

A problem arises when the clan based justice system supersedes our official laws and systems. No voting, no elections, no solutions or accountability. The essential danger of clan based systems is that extremism is more common in such groups and there are incentives to work outside the official law. When these are racially and religiously based perceptions it is in direct contrast to our national laws.

Even after the sacking of our capital we struggle with extremism. I don't believe it just disappeared magically, it just sort of went in the background again because of national level accountability. I know people who were inadvertent victims of a clan based system and I believe that obtaining justice for them is difficult if not impossible. There are direct and indirect victims to poor behavior. 

What allows these systems to exist? We are in a cultural transition in our country and politicians have politicized the police. To many, they are either all good or all bad. Police reform is also seen as either all good or all bad. While I might believe 80% are good and 20% have issues, likely the same for departments, this is seen a ludicrous conjecture in our current political discussion. This is where we know that politics doesn't always reflect actuality in life.

If I say many times our system functions well but sometimes it doesn't function well people sort of get confused. I might further add that there are many people who are complaining about injustices and concerned about the ethnic, racial, religious based crimes. We should consider their point of view when talking about ways to make policing and the justice system function at a higher level. I can also say there many great officers doing the right thing and they have empathy and positive interactions with different communities. 

(I'm not actually talking out of both sides of my mouth but talking about human nature. No one is all good or all bad. This is why I'm not necessarily looking to put people in jail. However, there were a few who caused the problem and few acted upon false information in a dangerous and illegal way so to me I believe that intentionally destructive, biased, and problematic behavior should not be encourage or given a free pass.)

What you will find is that reasonableness is often not part of the discussion. It doesn't hype people. Clan based justice systems can grow and challenge official systems when they lack accountability. We have seen this in other countries and places. We are not immune to that problem in the U.S.. To improve we will need to recognize the problem, care about our oaths and citizens, and then act on that in a way that solves and rectifies the problem. That is what politics is for....its for solving problems....not hiding them.  

This is my perspective and it makes no difference how many times I'm followed or how many laws are broken in that mad rush to cleans ones community. I support our police more than many of our politicians may understand or know. More than some of our local police know. In my life I have helped police at various times; even at great personal risk. Likewise, I'm helping them now correct a deficiency where close association has come to make inappropriate behaviors acceptable. This is again at personal risk that corruption will succeed.

However, when officers go rogue and act on what appears to be bigoted assumptions and clan affiliation, I believe very much they need some level of behavior modification. Supporting police is about making the best, strongest, fairest system we can in order to have justice- its purpose! It isn't about circumventing justice or providing free passes for intentionally damaging behavior of close associates and friends. It isn't about saying things to get votes or hype people up into different camps even when we are all in the same campground.

I don't know what your beliefs are but I got the impression that certain people can't talk freely without becoming targets in some areas. A type of stifling of intellectuals and legitimate suggestions for improvement.

Freedom of Religion and Freedom of Speech is America. Its our Constitution and the only one in which almost all of us agree upon. Without that, we have little to nothing that holds us together. Let us not play games with that which binds us into a single identity. Both sides should respect our long term national needs. I don't see myself stopping in my effort to encourage accountability and I don't see them stopping targeting to stifle common sense/reasonable changes. What becomes of it all is proof in the pudding. 

While I might say police, and likely departments, are mostly good but have some issues I'm not being silly, immature, or anti-police. I'm pro-police, pro civil rights and pro institution adaptation to make it better and ensure they are serving their mission and protecting the public. To assume it doesn't need to change as in "all perfect" perception or to assume all officers are bigots "all bad" is not the right way to think about the issue and its inherently manipulative in its proposition. It does get votes! 

(Some emotional charging is beneficial for getting the message to sink in. Not everything I write is useless or not thought out. Its an encoding system we use in our brain so it help package information. Except when its an excuse to target, that is more dangerous and shows subconscious bias. More dangerous if there may be some levels of corruption involved. You acted on your bias, you own it! Ask yourself how angry or happy you are that I'm saying what I'm saying? Emotional priming depends on the degree of conscious experience)

Consider....

15 Black And White Thinking Examples

Convergent vs. divergent thinking: Finding the right balance for creative problem solving

Jerome Powell: Labor market slack and unemployment

Federal Chair Powell talks about inflation and the labor market. Labor market slack will be more important in the near future. The Fed is looking at alternative measures because we have mixed predictors in today's market. If we have a platform shift we are going to have new economic assumptions. I agree that sometimes you can come to understand problems not by relying on traditional metrics alone, but sometimes through multiple secondary metrics few people thought about. 

A Word of Caution and Hope for Those Who Stand Up Against Hate and Corruption

A few ideas on my appreciation for those who know that we are and will in word and deed encourage the perception of a single indivisible people who seek liberty and justice for all.  Not everyone is on the same level as that and some are giving lip service to those values for personal gain. However, it is we the average American that continue to push our nation and its people to build/re-build our international standing/branding as a free and universal democratic society.

-Doing the right thing doesn't mean you will get anyone to believe in it. We have a problem because people have become complacent in their American values and in many ways confused by what these values mean (Yes I understand people get really angry about their beliefs but I'm looking at it as an alignment between word and behavior.). That is the danger of hyper politics and political manipulation because it encourage division to discourage pro-social single American conception. 

-While certain values are beneficial for our town and our country we don't always "walk the talk". Most people stand for the oaths and some people believe in those oaths but struggle with the deeper meaning behind the words. There are many who have no real understanding of the underlining meanings and the sacrifices contained within. There is social pressure to stand but I'm not sure everyone understands what they are pledging.

-Enforcement systems are self-contained with few to little ways to provide accurate feedback or accountability. This could be a reason why some have engaged in rogue behaviors. If you analyze the flow of information, how complaints are handled, and the low level of judicial intervention to force reform, we will come to an understanding of the nature of some of these problems from a closed system. Closed systems in history have been known to cause a lot of problems as they derail to their own set of codes that may not be in alignment with society.

-While you may be doing the right thing and standing up for the majority of society and Constitution, that doesn't mean people will stop rolling their eyes when crimes happen with their knowledge and with their awareness. There will be some who believe and act and many who say they believe, but don't act, and don't really care until it impacts them. It is a self interested decision making tree with its own rules of self oriented logic. It almost always ends in a negative spot.

-The federal system seems to be trying to do the right thing when compared to some of our local systems (I think most local systems to fine but sometimes they get confused and when they do, its an issue). That doesn't make them perfect but their perspective is more oriented toward a method that keeps society's divers stakeholders focused on a shared goals.  Up until Capital Riots domestic extremism was seen as not something on the priority list because it didn't pose an immediate threat (i.e. not seeing the threat. It happens, no system is perfect or can see everything.). I have seen this extremism unfold based on the words of clan leadership.

-The political structure and elites in society haven't yet decided that all Americans have value so until they conclusively come down on the side of the moral conscious and enforcing our implied contracts tens of millions of Americans may risk unfair treatment while they debate. So I encourage our judicial system to think about fairness, honestly and prosocial values. There are changes that lead to greater transparency and higher levels of effective policing. The goal is effective policing that functions at its highest state and in alignment with society's values.

-Standing up against hate and corruption is absolutely necessary to make our nation more competitive, to ensure our social contracts are maintained, and restore/improve trust in our systems (I know its difficult to sell that we as leaders have responsibilities.). If your standing for our shared values, then you are doing the right thing.  If your stand for truth, whether pro police or other, then you have an important message we need to hear. Those who stand for our values may not always be appreciated, but I believe in history, when we are removed from situations, we often find that those who challenged cared enough to believe in their society and the steps that help us become a leading people. It isn't the "status quo" that makes us a beacon, its the possibilities of the future and the hope it contains that makes us the shinning light. Its not a sound byte that can be sold for blind votes, but it is an essential truth of how society functions. 

Thursday, May 18, 2023

Retail Sales Up in April: Why Consumer Spending and Economic Health Are Associated?

Retail sales increased .4% in April hinting at a possible strong economy. Its a little like looking out the window and seeing semi sunny skies. Not sure if I should bring or leave my rain jacket. The rise in consumer sales is used by some economists as a method of gauging general economic health. It just isn't a perfect measurement and should be paired with other economic indicators to foreshadow the economic story (Remember that all economics is just human behavior in quantitative form).

The article Retail sales rebound in April, pointing to steady economy provides a level of analysis of consumer spending. Home do-it-yourself retail is up and restaurants are up. People must be eating after working on their houses. To busy to cook. 🤷 There hasn't been a major retraction in the consumer market even though the cost of using credit cards and such financing is high. (You can always follow the 'Don't Buy Stuff Plan')

Thinking about retail spending and its impact on the economy one could come to a question, "How does consumer spending help predict the economy?"

BLS has some categories they use to explain predictability in Beyond the Numbers. I also came across something by the White House on how economists determine a recession I thought was slightly off topic but very interesting. How Do Economists Determine Whether the Economy Is in a Recession? The Federation of American Scientists also put together one of the better explanations in Consumer Spending.

Basically, as consumer spending rises it is related to general economic health. People spend because they feel optimistic and because they have extra cash to burn. Consumer spending and economic health is not a 1-to-1 ratio. It sort of hints at something without a commitment. To make a more thorough analysis we would need additional measurements to increase the likelihood of being accurate. It doesn't mean its not an indicator, but that its not as useful unless other positive data come out to support a trend line.

Economic forecasting reminds me of fortune telling but lots and lots of numbers. One should wonder how big data is going to change those numbers and many of the economic assumptions will go with that change. For example, if you have significantly more information on economic activities, then the way we think about those activities is going to change, theories will adjust, so on and so forth. If its a Digital Age platform shift with deep economic implications then I suspect new theories would come out (I'm sort of working on one but I'm not sure if its 100% a new theory or just borrowing from other theories. It seems fairly accurate so far. 🤔) 

Wednesday, May 17, 2023

After the Clan Chaos: The Dangers of the Free Pass System

Justice for All
Its rare but there are a few people who have been through situations that when its all over and completed you scratch your head as to the bizarreness of it all. One may then wonder how such a seemingly beautiful people become coconspirators in potential hate based crimes. You might also ponder the future risks of a free pass clan based system if left intact and without appropriate checks and balances. When these things happen it is helpful to sort of put them in perspective so we can work on solving the problem. A discussion on the possibilities helps us think about where accountability should lay

Context

Imagine that this was not a normal situation, instead one in which a large group of clan based friends, police officers, and perhaps a few public officials were involved in one form or another (Not all necessarily bad or good.). Likewise, there a number of victims of various harm levels that range from the sick and dying all the way over to children (Each at different levels and to different degrees). I guess if you widened the perspective you might even include the community itself as one of the victims who would enjoy not having schisms in their social networks.

The catalysts are many but essentially it appears a desire to self enrich, bigotries, clan connections, and lack of Constitutional protections (speech and religion) seem to have been contributing factors to this situation. Those that started this did so because I believe they were attempting to hide current and past criminal behaviors through using projected hate as a tool (I know its impossible! Lets go with it for a moment as a thought experiment. One would need to investigate to be sure. i.e. questions like were monies taken from the vulnerable, was hate speech used to deflect and protect the discovery of alleged crimes, and how other goal directed behaviors occur?)

Mental Health

It also ties to mental health which is something that governments are struggling with finding the balance. We do have toxic self-interested people in the world and sometimes those unaddressed issues create real harm. You can't say whatever you want and sic launch half witted followers on minorities (or anyone) simply because one doesn't know how to deal with uncomfortable feelings (Ok theoretically you can't but in practicality there are cases where this occurs I'm sure.). If our system was run by bullies, bigots and bad people we have a system that will spread toxicity in a dangerous way infecting the official system to socialize to lower order values like those learned in tight knit social group (I guess it is the same for extremism, and other isms).

Looking Back

Looking back over the field of desperation and civic derailment I realize that each person played a role in some ways. Drawn to act against our American values because they had an issue they needed to deal with in an environment that had two different legal structures (the official and the clan/shadow) where services are rendered with different customers in mind. Those that don't fit well into the clan ranging from racism/bigotry to character (It might actually be a good reason and more healthy adaptive reason) are met with official/unofficial wave upon wave of dangerous and coordinated hate based behaviors (No one should know those tactics meaning it was already there as part of learned prior behaviors. The difference is an "out-group" target lowered their inhibitions quickly. I guess this group would adapt but if they are not on the receiving end of environmental stress then they would have had no reason to adapt. That is why it is sometimes necessarily or outside agencies to come in and correct when a system becomes maladaptive. Pressure helps them readapt.

Responsibility and Accountability

Who should own the responsibility for such behaviors and outcomes? Perhaps it is the victims who should not have dared to challenge the status quo, protect their family, or stung the distortion of an easily manipulated mob. Maybe its the officers who were all to willing to act on improper information, intentionally connecting loosely associated information, spread that misinformation like we have seen in other dehumanizing justifications, and commit potential crimes based on that information without ever checking their biased assumptions. I suspect one could hold the people who caused such behaviors to account but that would only be a moral sentiment as the laws are not designed well to see hate inspired swarming or the underpinnings of extremism that makes that possible.

A Few Thoughts

We are just not there yet as a people and we hold all types of assumptions that truly limit our potential as a nation of diverse people. A nation that must now compete and seems to be thinking about multiple paths. I believe that we could do a much better job at aligning our internal environment to the needs of the emerging digital era and all of the human capital factors gained from such alignment. We must treat people fairly across society in an enlightened way in order to draw the best out of them. Thoughtful laws for thoughtful outcomes.  We have a responsibility to create a level playing field and ensure that our laws are being applied universally and fairly in ways that are the most helpful and maintain the integrity of our institutions. I encourage stronger hate based laws and additional public safeguards against misuse of official position for nefarious purposes.

Tuesday, May 16, 2023

Delta County Board of Commissioners Special Meeting (5/9/2023): Comments, Corruption, Candidates, and Administrator Hired!

There are a lot of things going on within this meeting as it relates to an open full time county administrator position. The situation has been a little controversial because of a firing of one and the hiring of another. It is through this discussion and comparison of candidates that led to a vote based on fairly consistent voting lines of 2-3. What makes this meeting more interesting is that the words corruption were used and there has been significant community blowback on some issues. 

Business continues forward and moves on despite disagreements. Through the hustle of conversation a new administrator was hired and I would agree with most of the other commissioners with the sentiment that everyone wants the new administrator to do well no matter who is in the position. I'm getting this post out there because today's meeting I heard was interesting and I have been busy on other stuff.

Notes: I try and be accurate. Watch the video if I'm incorrect on something I can easily adjust. 

-Upset with the process but also feels there is corruption. Stated it as a power grab. An issue of a vote change and switching the candidate ranking in qualifications. Local expert opinion stated that the current interim isn't qualified but has potential. Another stated people support the current interim and her qualifications. 

-There was some discussion on each of the candidates. Candidates are generally chosen for strategic purposes based on where the county would like to go in the next 5 to 10 years. For example, if the area wants to grow economically then they need someone with economic knowledge and finance so as to create the investment mechanisms. However, we should not ignore other factors of leadership that has nothing to do with any specific industry background. 

-Significant discussion around each of the candidates and what each one likes and each one doesn't like. Each of the commissioners picked their favorites. 

-The idea of succession planning and junior study was brought up. Its not a bad idea to have people able to step in temporary to maintain core functions of different roles. Often that leads to greater systems knowledge of how the different roles coordinate to fulfill an organizational mission.

-Each candidates was brought up for a vote. There is a reason why I think that happened. 

-Somewhere around 1.38 there is a discussion on corruption and an argument between two commissioners. Corruption was initially defined as things behind the back and then it moved to illegal. Asking if one will resign if something happened that was corrupt. (Remember that those are the opinions of the sayers alone and I have my own unique opinions. I found a video on corruption, investment and other potential issues. Since we are discussing the terminology its beneficial to look at some resources. Kind of interesting by Investors Trading Academy 'What is corruption'.)

Haddock Fish Supply Declining so Quota Cut 80%: Keeping the Ocean Fish Stocks Healthy

East coast fishing have cut catch Haddock quotas by more than 80% to prevent the fish’s population from collapse. Fish is in demand across the globe and countries are in tons of commercial fishing battles. The U.S. has within its territorial waters and the Great Lakes the capacity to build their fish populations to a rich industry. Of course one might need to rethink on how to fund rebuilding through commercial fishing to ensure the population grows. 

I wonder in some ways if the tax, license fees, etc. were reworked and then streamlined we could save some resources. Furthermore, when we build sustainable systems we have to ensure the resources taken out are put back in to keep the whole system growing. If we are not doing that, then we are likely mismanaging the resources in an unsustainable way.

One way to think about such revenue is commercial fishing investing directly back into fishing growth, fisheries, etc. The other stuff beyond administrating that system are bonus returns to government and can be used for other sources. However, the majority of the revenue should be spent on growing fishing and on the administration of that industry to keep it functioning well. If you take, then it should go back there first.

You can read some stuff on the UN Food and Agriculture Organization on Sustainable Fisheries

Fishing and commercial fishing is one of the things that keep me interested.  A sort of fantasy of building a part-time commercial hobby operation and spend more time out on the lake (Just sort of for fun and not anything serious). Anyway....

I keep thinking about how that might help manage fishing supplies, keep the protein supply growing, and allow for year to year better management. For example, having a strong central commercial fishing industry of different size operations helps maintain the industry if it is a size less then the regeneration rate. 

Using seasonal/yearly hobby fishing part-time commercial fishing license from year to year can create a cushion for the commercial industry because they are small vessels and are not guaranteed to be renewed. Of course that might also mean that the core commercial size would need to be of a size that it can be profitable and ensure the fishing supplies are growing in a clean and sustainable way. 

Haddock, popular Atlantic fish, overfished into population decline

Monday, May 15, 2023

How the Hate Narrative Works: Research Studies Help Show

All behavior is goal directed in one form or another. That is true whether or not behavior is rational or is not rational. The spreading of rumors to create the hate narrative has a goal even though we might not see that initially or see it hidden in the interwoven narrative. While some of those goals may be emotional there are other aspects of that goal that may be entirely malicious. There are differences between complaining versus creating an intentional hate narrative. Likewise, there are also psychological effects of those who push the hate narrative and the victims who are targeted. In this blog post we will discuss the goals of hate.

The Goal (s) of Hate: 

Let us think about all the reasons why someone would make up a story about someone else and/or a group and then push that story as a call to action . I'm sure you can think of many. When people are upset they can sometimes make up a story to help themselves fell better through punishing those who made them feel lower (i.e. keep in mind the concept of feel/feelings as an internal driven event versus an externally generated event. Another person can't make you feel anything unless it was there already. Sometimes those feelings are valid and sometimes they are not valid but the way we respond to them defines us.) Usually they complain to a few friends and that is the end of that. Its normal to feel a little jaded when things don't go your way but one should do so truthfully to create the most beneficial outcomes possible. In this scenario the goal is deflection of uncomfortable feelings

You might also meet someone really toxic who tries to spread as many rumors as they can in order to harm someone else (or group or family). These reputation attacks are often designed to isolate and diminish the targets in some way that could lead to contextual dangers. It happens in small towns a lot because reputation is everything. This becomes especially more true if someone feels they have something juicy to spread their false beliefs as facts (I don't believe in facts but just most plausible outcomes based on the data provided.). There will be manipulation, leaving out information, switching things around, projection of feelings, etc. to create that "narrative". In my experience they talk to everyone who will listen in order to spread the toxic viewpoints as false justification for bad/criminal behaviors. 

The goal in this case becomes more sinister because not only do they want to deflect uncomfortable feelings they do so in a way to lower value through reputation damaging stories, create barriers between people/communities, and seek to damage the other person as much as possible. In my experience, people like this almost never have the story right and the narrative they create is designed to control, manipulate and/or harm others. They may be completely at fault but they don't really care because truth is a social reality. We have all met a few people like this and generally we stay away. 

If these toxic behaviors set off a bigger chain of events then we have an issue. That becomes doubly so if they intentionally manipulated information in order to isolate and harm the victim(s). That could include encouraging people to be aggressive, lie about, ostracize, pick fights, show anger, and all the ways in which someone with dark triad traits would seek to create leverage. It moves beyond just bad behavior but could be very dangerous because one does not know the end result of such unleashed venom. Triply so if they have a lot of open ear friend network/clan unhappy with life or percolating jealousies.

A couple of studies to look at:

1. Hate is found in up to 25% of speech in many cases in college. It could be an indication of hate as a tool. I wonder if it is found more hate in older people? The young, except the radicalized young, seem to be much more open minded when compared to generations of the past. Something to look at in the future. Prevalence and Psychological Effects of Hateful Speech in Online College Communities

2. In this study we find that hate lowers certain neural functions that in turn reduce empathy taking among groups and in turn the inability to see the targets as worthy of fair treatment. Think about this one for a second. If you can triangulate a group to involve themselves through speech alone you can get them to act on targets (i.e. the slogan yelled at the Capital Riots was "Hang Pence". People acted on that and had no idea what they were talking about or the other factors or facts. I think they would have did it in hindsight. ). Exposure to hate speech deteriorates neurocognitive mechanisms of the ability to understand others’ pain

3. The UN has a discussion common targets of hate speech and the increase in trends. 'Targets of Hate'

4. The University of Sussex offers some of the motivations of hate and how there can be a number of factors that create motivation. 'Causes and Motivations of Hate'

5. It is also possible that when hate speech starts to increase, it can impact the amount of hate crimes in an area. The study by Cornell found that the amount of hate oriented speech on twitter was associated with the amount of hate crimes in that city (It wouldn't be a cause most likely, it would be a symptom). Race, Ethnicity and National Origin-based Discrimination in Social Media and Hate Crimes Across 100 U.S. Cities

What we find by looking at such situations is that hate speech has a goal and often that is to control, diminish others so as to raise or protect one's own status. The goal and the ability of the person to manipulate their environment is inherently of concern. When these intentional stories are spread it can be very difficult to minimize and that is why they are used in hate crimes, ethnic cleansing, and other power over events that have turned out to be atrocities later. As the narrative morphs through official and unofficial positions/channels it creates a backdrop for future hate as a social expectation (Unless one ensures that it isn't allowed so as to avoid future coordinated hate. That is called accountability. This is why integrity of legal systems and law enforcement is necessary.). 

It does say something about the strength of some of these institutions and whether they are more concerned about official functions or shadow functions such as groups, race, ethnicity, friends, etc. There are slightly different goals for each department governance levels and as one expands outwards the needs of the local social group become of less concern as objectives become different. Taking people out of their groups often helps them see different perspectives. In clan based networks, they share a sense of world view and that can be socially distorting if not challenged (There are many different types of victims of this behavior. Kind of why I'm writing this now. So I challenge and I challenge and push against the speeding train that may someday run out of track.

When systems treat each other fairly and universally they will come out on top as trusted entities. When certain crimes are allowed to happen in an effort to maintain ones group/clan status, superiority of religion or race, or simply because one holds false views of others and/or the power to enforce the false beliefs then we have an issue. These types of behaviors occurred at different times in history, so we also should be watchful of these things happening again. That is why we should always be diligent and on watch.  

There is a threshold that should not be crossed with words and actions. That becomes increasingly possible when the wrong narratives are created to lower social inhibitions of aggressive behaviors. This is probably why we need a better understanding of how mental health leads to hate in groups.

P.S. I think we can maybe discuss the type of people who believe, act, and spread such ideas and their quality of character and personal identity issues.