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Showing posts from January, 2023

The Conference Board January 2023 Press Release Indicates US and China LEI Decline and Possible Recession

The Leading Indicators Reports (LEI reports) by the Conference Board are hinting at recession in 2023. I'm not so sure but let us see what happens. A small dip won't be a recession but how the year finishes is important. Similar to them I project the 2023/24 interchange is likely to show strength ( Perhaps digital economy growth heavy. I don't really like how the Fed defines digital economy as I think it can be limiting to the overall meaning. I might think of a metric for a broad calculation to show how much of the economy has now shifted to root digital transactions versus physical transactions. I bet we would find higher growth with digital transactions but that the calculation is using physical assumptions. It wouldn't seem like it would make a difference but a wrong assumption can make it through the chain and impact our choices. The animal spirits can have a mind of their own! Grrrrr!!! )  My reasoning is likely different then theirs as I'm thinking about the

Update on Hate: The Importance of Community, Systems and Integrity

Community is an important thing and we want to develop our communities as much as we can to ensure they thrive in a increasingly global and nimble world. Sometimes there are people who hold beliefs that are antithetical to community building. While I very much wish that such situations never have occurred, they nevertheless did, and that requires a level of responsibility so others can learn to avoid the same mistakes. Its important to help perpetrators prior to them becoming destructive and/or radicalized in a way that wastes community resources and causing heartache in the wake of their path. What Are the Issues? The issue is that mental health, greed and poor values got legitimized through a hate projection process. Hate was just a tool to be used to silence good moral conscious and ostracize the targeted family in a way that seeks to pit some members of the community against minorities in their midst ( A learning organization mindset needed for improvement. ). While the initial int

Did You Know Half of People Earning Six Figures Are Living Pay Check to Pay Check?

I'm surprised that so many people who earn $100,000+ are living pay check to pay check. That would indicate a couple of problems. Inflation is likely eating up some of that. I'm not sure what the other part is. It might have something to do with lifestyle but it might also have something to do with the overall value of our wages going down year after year.  Before I go on you can read an article in Fortune ' More than half of Americans raking in $100,000 or more are living paycheck to paycheck ' First, all of this is very dependent on location. Earning $100K in one place is very different then earning $100K in another place. Let us pretend $100K is real money and a family of three could live a solid middle class lifestyle and a single person could live with a few luxuries ( People in San Diego would say they are poor and people in Escanaba would say they are wealthy. Big difference in housing costs .).  Many technology workers and digital workers start in the low six fi

Wolf Climbing Out of Frozen Lake Superior: Ecotourism and USDA Recreational Economy

This picture may interest outdoor enthusiasts. The U.P. has an abundance of wildlife and its an amazingly pristine place that attracts significant tourism attention to each of its 4 seasons. These pictures are from Isle Royale which is a preserve north of the U.P. but we share similar wildlife characteristics. If your traveling around the U.P. and looking for places to go make sure you check out some of the region's outdoor oasis.  There are other towns in the U.P. that are also heavily impacted by ecotourism in one way or anther. For example,  Escanaba is in the process of becoming a destination place for ecotourism and has become a significant investment lure for its marinas, fair grounds, ship building and papermill. Its downtown is waiting for tourism and start-up investors (i.e. custom golf clubs, snow shoes, etc...)  Local communities like Escanaba (and Gladstone) should consider opportunities to develop their eco tourism economy. There are some resources in the USDA Recreat

Republican Split over "Old Guard" and "MAGA"?

As our world progresses and changes there will be shifts in our political structure and the way in which parties approach issues. There has been some risk of a GOP split brewing for some time. Read the article   Republicans Confront Divide  and consider a few others such as GOP Stay Neutral , Republican Split , Two GOP Parties ? They provide some of the changes in the underlining shift in ideology between Old Guard and MAGA. If they have enough similarities to stay together they will be fine but if one is splitting the group on purpose then we will have three parties ( Likely 4 or 5 someday if the GOP splits. That is not a good or bad thing. I'm surprised it hasn't happened already. We have little prior experience in such a system. As long as these parties stay focused on certain philosophies versus breaking into religious, clan, or other sects that create identity beyond political beliefs we should be ok. No one knows the future but an unbalanced three party system will shift

Memphis Fire Department Employees Relieved of Duty: When is Silence is the Wrong Thing?(Training Opp)

I have great respect for firefighters and police because they hold important roles in our society but that doesn't mean there is not room for improvement...and in this case significant improvement. So important a position that each situation presents an opportunity to learn and build a better overall governance system. The action of removing Memphis Fire Department employees because they failed to act to help the victim is an interesting issue that firefighters should incorporate into their training and department policies. There are legal, moral, and reporting line issues that have come forward in these crisis situations. Firefighters need to know what to do and where to report situations both at the time they are occurring and after the incident has occurred. I'll tell you why I think its going to be an interesting policy shift throughout the country because we know that silence is "the wrong thing". There are different chains of command and that will intersect with

Report Indicates U.S. May Not Be Prepared for War With China. As Early as 2025?

 We have work to do in our military supply chain and innovative capacity. That requires a level of trying new ideas and thoughts. For example, developing economic clusters that are designed to quickly innovate our industry and impact through butterfly effects other industries in a positive way. Advanced military innovation is based on industry innovation. In this case, we might consider sparking multi benefits on the pin of the same needle through collaborative R&D and prototype generation through a cluster development framework ( Its still a theory in work in progress but is supported in the literature ). As a nation we recently started jogging to speed up our pace and this is a good indication a race of development between the U.S. and China is well on its way. As a nation we will soon need to run and it is best to start resolving issues and giving up political-ideological immaturities that fail to help the nation as a whole early in the competitive process. Let us get practical,

Deactivation of Scorpion Unit is Helpful But Is It Too Reactive and Not Proactive Enough?

Much of this blog is about national development and we don't shy away from difficult conversations when they have the chance to impact that development ( That fear of saying too little and leaving the problems for the next generation seem to come forward ). Let me say as a light Right Republican I have the ability to listen to my conservative and liberal friends with equal consideration. What I'm hearing from people is that it is great that leaders, judges, and prosecutors are now taking action once a video comes into the airwaves and there are no options to sugar coat what happened. I'm 100% in support of police and 110% in support of civil rights ( include religion and free speech ) because ultimately all institutions must be subject to the general needs and will of society. Where I'm hearing some criticism, of which some of it I share, is that its a little late and the hindsight concern is nice but seems sort of well, "hindsight" when obvious foresight was

Rest and Recovery for Athletes: Knowing How Much and When?

Staying is shape is part of living a healthy lifestyle. It lets you be the best you can be in the physical realm ( Don't forget the other parts and making sure those are also healthy ). If you have been reading for a while you might be aware I engage in a number of sports, have a fitness trainers certificate, and a yoga certification. There are a few other things but the point being that I'm not new to the world of sports and I'm also interested in it and thus the reason why constant learning is important.  This article is for those who want to perform at the best they can and maintain a healthy lifestyle. For those of us who work out regularly we often discount the value of recovery and push the limits. I have years of pushing the limits and it can lead to decreased performance. Recovery seems to be important but knowing how much time is helpful. It is possible to not have days off but it would be difficult to have a routine that builds in that recovery within the program

Protests for Tyre Nichols Takes Form Nationwide: We can solve this problem as a society!

We need a path through this but so far many of our leaders are bouncing back on their heels with similar worn out solutions to problems many of them don't understand. The black and white, this or that, type thinking that now makes its way into our decision making process based on party line blind button pressing isn't going to solve this issue ( That does not take away from the many good leaders we do have. This is about those who are not focused on solving problems ). So we may need to think beyond our current capacity to understand and move into the root importance and respect for life and our fundamental American values. We as a developing society need to push for a peaceful transition to a higher platform of democracy where we can improve on making police more effective at catching bad guys as well as follow standards of excellence that lead to humane and peaceful public servants. There are cultural issues in some departments and few ways to break that dysfunctional culture

U.S. GDP Rises to 2.9% in Q4 2022: What is GDP and How to Calculate?

GDP expands to 2.9% in Q4 2022 and unemployment declines showing signs of economic resilience. In general this means the economy is growing and unused human capital is being brought back into the market (Putting pressure on technology to expand US. labor capacity). How much the U.S. is growing in comparison to other countries can be found when we compare world GDP rates ( Explore World Bank Data ). The BEA has a description of GDP in BEA GDP . You may also want to understand how GDP is broken down and how it is calculated in The Money Balance GDP.   From a very generic standpoint the formula is.....   GDP is Y = C + I + G + NX GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government + Net Exports

Invest Escanaba: Billerud $200 Million Paper Mill Development Supplemental Passes State House and Senate

" The Hunt " in the Forest by Paolo di Dono, called Uccello (1397–1475) Billerud in Wells Township should be happy to hear that a supplemental bill for $200 million passed in the state house and senate. You can read the article in State legislature passes funding to upgrade Billerud mill in Delta County  (TV6, 2023). What you will find in the article is the need to update infrastructure and while Delta County has existing infrastructure well suited for the logging (and a few others) it will need updates. There are lots of things that go into industrial design that most people don't think about so it take some time (i.e. rain water run off, energy needs, roads, rail, etc..). Those changes will likely lead to more investment interest ( Think of FDI and how that is impacted by supply chains being rerouted back to the U.S. Remember that interest doesn't mean actual investment. However, it raises the possibility of further investment . See International Monetary Fund . ) T

A Few Words on Hate: Making it Past the Facade of Legitimacy

(1431-1506) Andrea Mantegna 'The Triumph of the Virtues Minerva Expelling the Vices from the Garden of Virtue', 1502 Renaissance Humanism Hate is a problem in ours as well as others societies. In the U.S. we are posed to overcome a big portion of hate in the next few decades as new technologies lead to keen insight into some of the underlining mechanisms of the hate trap. As we challenge hate broadly across society at precisely the time technology and communication patterns are changing we can change the narrative and push society to consider the merits of man (a general term for mankind) before superficial characteristics to ensure the best and brightest come forward.  A more pure and purposeful capitalism that maximizes our human capital and opportunities broadly as technology puts more power in user's hands. The underlining mechanics of hate are still very much human to human and need further challenge to put back into the cave by which it came.  With all hate is the s

Playing with Firefighter Knots: Can You Perform Them Under Stress?

It takes commitment to be a volunteer firefighter and requires regular self and group training. Its great to help the community but one must stay up-to-date on their skills and knowledge as much as possible. Most of the time you don't have an issue but there may be one day where one of these skills might be useful. In emergency the stress levels rise and one must have the knowledge already in their muscle memory to as to avoid cognitive overload.  Firefighters ( and others ) often must be able to perform under serious stressful situations where there is lots of confusion and lots of pressure to get things done now with multiple unknown risks ( Cognitive data overload based on multitudes of possibilities and not enough time to analyze. ). That high cognitive load situation is easiest managed through preparation and training that helps embed information into multiple possible auto responses that would be the leading tools for an immersive environment.  Typically these trained respons

Click Demographics and Why they Are Important (Academic-Capital)

Click demographics are important because they tell you who is reading your publication. Academic-Capital is a blog on national development and covers lots of different topics as they relate to that economic, business, education, and lifestyle. Naturally it will appeal to some and be rejected by others. What these demographics tell me is that there is a certain kinds of people that read these topics. That allows for better future content management to ensure that topics relate directly to the readership. Furthermore, if we add that to other page information (page impressions, time on page, etc.) we begin to understand our demographic. For example, I have 535+ impressions this morning ( That really doesn't mean anything unless I verify the time frame in which these impressions are counted. i.e. 2 hours or 24 hours .)  You can find this information under Top Demographics in LinkedIn. ( Dang! I guess I got to spell check more! 😬💨)

Voters Want Santos to Resign: Could he be prosecuted?

I'm a little confused. 🤔When someone joins Congress I have to imagine they have paperwork that they have to submit that to someone. That paperwork might include prior employment, education, things that people need to sign in order even get a door pass card or computer access. I'm surprised there is no legal mechanism to remove people who intentionally misled voters with false information and the Federal Government (including its documents) in a way that would be considered fraudulent.  We have something like  The False Statements Accountability Act of 1996 (FSAA), Pub. L. No. 104-292, H.R. 3166  and the  Ethics in Government Act 1978 . I'm curious if either these apply to this situation. We might need to ask a professional with experience in potential Congressional type fraud ( Honestly, I know its not that simple but it should be .). We should ask the man who started invented the automobile along with Atari and the modern microwave Congress Santos? I'm really confuse

Abram's Tanks Going to Ukraine: Let's Rethink Military Industry Innovative Pace of Change

 We are starting to move as a nation at a jogging pace in terms of development. The U.S is in the process of updating its innovative structure and new technology will need to be integrated into advanced weaponry. Yet as with all government spending there are limits. This is where industries can come together to create innovation that not only improves their products but also advances the military. When you have multiple industries you are also creating economic synergy. While government is often the beneficiary the use of industrial clusters with community oriented aspects can do wonders for speeding up innovation in participating companies/industries. ( Sounds good to me. Please disregard if you don't like the idea . Would Esky be a good place for prototype customization of Frigate size and smaller Navy ships? FYI more Frigates will likely grow in demand because of their multi purpose use .)

Digital Nomads on Boats: Emails into the Cold Blue!

Filling Water Tanks Cold! Part of this publication is to talk about emerging trends and lifestyles. Digital Nomads are a growing economic force fast forwarded 15 years by business adaptations to Covid. The world is going digital and the digital workers will have more freedom and power then they ever had before ( Global Nerds 🤓).  Ok sorry I was just being a little light hearted and silly this AM. A poem....even if not very good....... Digital Nomads on Boats (Emails into the Cold Blue) The clock struck 10, I put down my pen, Looked into the cold blue, Quickly sent an email to you.

Gold Standard: What is it according to Steve Forbes?

Students often ask me what is the Gold Standard and what does it mean. I have seen countries use the standard and there has been some benefit to doing that. There are some limitations. One has to really look at the Gold Standard because it can stabilize the value of money. That can be helpful when we have high inflation. Of course as with all strategies and fiscal policies there are positives and negative. Overall......I think the Gold Standard concept has merit. I wonder if one could balance the two methods by including a battery of Gold with a few other valuable resources? Need to think about it....

Escanaba Michigan Video: A Place for Business, a Place for Outdoor Play!

This is a town unlike other towns. It is an underutilized location that has recently started the process of realigning to the global market. It is attracting paper mill investments, retail stores, small business, vacationers, and travelers. You can see the movement in the background and how that will likely start leading to overt signs of growth.  These things take time and those companies that get into "the market" early also have a first in advantage through community relationship building ( I have business that I am thinking of expanding at some point. If I had an design and engineering business I would consider the attractive outdoor lifestyle and the ability to create prototypes. Lots of open space.) (*fyi did you know the name Butterfield means "open field". Sorry sort of an inside joke on lineage lines in the area. P.S. in the literary arts it is multiple running themes within the same work. Keep that in mind if you keep reading the blog. Its not just science

Dunham's Opens in Escanaba MI: Expanded Store

Healthy economies should be diverse and have a balance between a couple of different industries and create an economic draw. Retail is one thing that is making a come back in Esky and with some additional focus on the downtown we can improve the overall brand image of the town ( We want it to be fun, develop a robust downtown and pro investment oriented outlook .)  In my economic perspective, I try and think about long term growth and when a large retail outlet and/or when something else might be of benefit.  In this case I think Dunham's would be a good fit and likely contribute to the development of an outdoor brand.  If your an outdoor person you want to get stuff and get it quick. Things break, boats break, forgotten equipment, etc. We can sort of also come to the conclusion that outdoor retail sales good and there is reason to expand. There has been an increase in tourism in the area and the use of the marina. A trend.........? Additional outdoor tourism would generally mean m

Create a Vision, Sell a Vision, and Enact a Vision: Universal Democracy

We as a nation are in a transition where the old ideas are clashing with new ideas. Darkness and lower order values are restricting the acceptance of higher order values. The vision has been a universal democracy for a longtime where people are treated civilly and the laws appeal fairly across society. Universal democracy encourages a highly competitive nation that provides opportunities through dispersed capitalism and appropriate democratic governance.  At least in theory..... Then we sort of see what is happening across America with slightly different rules for different people. Scene at the Signing of the Constitution of the United States, by Howard Chandler Christy, 1940 The laws are important but they are often applied in one direction in a way that creates existential risks for a large portion of society. We could fix this problem of course but without the will there is no way. We must first believe that its important to treat people fairly based on some sense of rule and honor