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Sunday, September 13, 2020

Economic Recovery-Are My Projections Still on Track?

The economy is showing some signs of improvement through the jobs report and economic activities. I'm reading the Reuters article U.S. economy is improving, weeks before the election. Will Trump benefit? by Ann Saphire and I thinking about whether I'm going to be close in my original projects. It is great that our economy is growing and that can have a big impact on people's lives. Projections are a little like looking in to a "crystal ball" but there are indicators that sometimes give us insight. It is interesting to watch the market and see what makes it tic and hum along. 

Projections can be hard. I'm curious if my belief that the economic recovery will happen in Q3 and be back to normal by Q4 at which time 2021 will see improvements above pre-covid levels. While its not directly tied to the theory I'm working on, it is the principles of the research that I'm using to predict an upswing. In part, its based on improvements in GDP through enhanced network capacities and influx of investments that lead to innovative adaptation and hopefully higher economic growth. 

Retrieved from Reuters

Because I'm curious about how it will work out I will talk about some of the economic news and how it might relate in part to the the theory (You can read more HERE). If my predictions are right that is awesome and if they are not right that is awesome! The outcome isn't really tied to the theory. The theory is about economic developing in a Digital GDP world and how that will change our economic assumptions to fit more with a network cluster development type theory; or the Theory of Transactional Clusters.

I'm just sort of playing around with different aspects of the theory to see if they can be useful for economic activities in an economy that relies increasingly on a virtual world/economy. I wrote in April the article GDP Contracts 1st Q of 2020-Is It a Short Lived Shock and Digital GDP Recovery? that relates in more detail what a digital recovery might look like.



Saphire, A. (September 11th, 2020). U.S. economy is improving, weeks before the election. Will Trump benefit? Reuters. Retrieved September 12th, 2020 at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-economy/us-economy-is-improving-weeks-before-the-election-will-trump-benefit-idUSKBN2622TG


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