Thursday, July 30, 2020

Will The Economy Bounce Back End of 2020?

The economy has taken a "hit" and much of normal life grinded to a halt without taking the time to even screech. I'm reading the article, "U.S. Is About to Unveil the Ugliest GDP Report Ever Recorded" by Reade Pickert and much of the article discusses a bounce back based in consumer spending and re-opening. My concern is not so much Q2 in the primary adjustment stages but more so Q3 and Q4 where people have already had time to adjust to a different life pattern.

Q1 and Q2 are likely the worst of the months as consumer spending and global commerce declined abruptly. These were also the months businesses and people had to do the most adjusting. I might be able to call them the panic months where no one really knew what this COVID thing was and closed everything down. 

Q3 and Q4 have a lot of things that may indicate strong growth. Jobs are adjusting, business is adjusting, and consumers need new products they have gone without. Furthermore, they are tired of staying in and are venturing out more. We have also created safety protocols in many states that allow places like restaurants, gyms, and casinos to open. 

Much of the recovery depends on the power of COVID and our state/federal response. Yet assuming things stay relatively the same I think these will be our strongest two quarters. Q2 numbers will be interesting as a prelude and early 2021 will tell us if we will have sustained upward trajectory. There is also the possibility that 2023 shows a technology adaptation burst as companies fully integrate post-COVID technology and operational approaches to the market.

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