When COVID hit everything slowed down. Temporary layoffs have surged and as states open we can expect jobless claims to decline. Much will depend on payroll. I would hope to see these start to decline rapidly over the next quarter as states continue to open back up. By the end of the third quarter it would be awesome if we see it move quickly down and see the economy begin to return toward a growth trend that is hoped to peak in January. With luck we may find ourselves next year in a growth stage as the fundamentals of the global economy changes and shifts to new economic realities based in part in disruption, abilities of countries to adapt, and new U.S. policy changes.