Wednesday, June 3, 2020

GDP Contracts -52.8% 2nd Quarter-What might happen in the near future?

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta GDP declined significantly. I'm curious if there will be some bumping upward in the third and fourth quarters.  Most of this is COVID related but the protests might also change some of the investment structure in the short term. This will impact the first part of the third quarter and then move into a stronger half of the third quarter.  The underlining mechanics are untouched such as a pool of large investors that still have money to spend and seem to be taking a more or less wait and see approach. Getting them involved could make a bid difference.

This was taken from their website...

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -52.8 percent on June 1, down from -51.2 percent on May 29. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -56.5 percent and -61.5 percent, respectively, to -58.1 percent and -62.6 percent, respectively. The nowcast of the contribution of the change in net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.73 percentage points to 0.43 percentage points.

What I'm hoping for is that in the middle of Q3 we will start to see upward bumps as the economy grows. What happens in Q4 and early next year will depend on large scale investors, government policy, consumer confidence, and the world economy. It would be further hoped we could master this crisis and create an export culture capable of building new businesses and manufacturing companies by drawing investing home and investing in new ideas. 

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